gwi_global desalination market

8/4/2019 GWI_Global Desalination Market

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The Global Desalination

MarketChristopher Gasson

Global Water Intelligence


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This presentation

The bad news: market forecastdowngraded

The good news: medium to long termpicture looks good

Market trends


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What has changed

The Arab spring: project delays across NorthAfrica

La Nina: rains in Australia and California

Weak economic recovery: US & Spain affected

Gulf demand projections scaled back

Trinidad politics turns against desal

Natural resource sector demand increases China and India buoyant


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The new market forecast


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Capacity cut from 2011/12


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Tracked projects


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Capital expenditure


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Capital expenditure trends


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Operating expenditure


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Good News

Still significant under developed markets

Increased energy in the water cycle

Changing precipitation patterns India and China

Natural resource industries need water

The long term picture is good


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Undeveloped markets


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Increased energy in the water cycle

Ocean water mass Land water mass

Famiglietti et al., 2011, in prep


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Food:Energy:Water Nexus


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From just in case to core resource

There are two stages of desal demand:

1) Plants built to overcome temporary shortages

2) Plants built to meet day-to-day urban water

needs

The former are very difficult to build; the latter areeasy. The water/food nexus will force the

transition.


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Israel case study

182l/c/d

488l/c/d


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The top 10 markets


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China

Desal is not a significant priority in China today

Industrial strategy is not developed

South North Transfer will quietly fail

By 2018 China could start building plants with a capacity of more than

1Mm3/d Befesa, IDE, Aqualyng, & Hyflux are well placed


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India

Both Chennai and Mumbai have increased their desalprogrammes from 200,000m3/d to 400,000m3/d in thepast month.

Like China, the local industry is very much focused onthe power sector. It is very EPC led.

Like China, tariffs are

a problem

Financial models mayevolve


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Oil and gas Desal has a role to play in four areas: frac water treatment,recycling in the tar sands, recycling produced water where disposaloptions are limited and low sal flood water production.

It is a tough market to enter

Minimising brine rather than cheap product water is the goal


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Mining

There is currently 1.8 million m3/d ofdesal capacity on the drawing boardin Chile, and 500,000m3/d proposedfor Western Australia.

Additionally desal is becoming thestandard wastewater requirement inthe sector, as firms implement globalbest practice for corporate social

responsibility reasons GWI report on the market published

next month.


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Long range forecast

CAGR = 8% - 9%; Market value in 2025 = $25bn capex ($5.7bn in 2011)


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Market trends

Competition is horrible: you lose if you win, andyou lose if you lose - expect some departures

BOT continuing to take market share from publicfinance

There is still a shortage of operators UF is spreading in pretreatment, but it is not the

silver bullet New RO technologies Modern Water and

NanoH2O - are making headway Any technology dependent on waste heat is not Have we seen the end of MSF?


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Thank you

gwi_global desalination market

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