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    Guest Post: Is There Wisdom In The Crowd?

    Submitted by Doug Hornig ofCasey Research,

    Back in the 1960s, a clever but financially disadvantaged fellow placed a small ad in a national

    magazine that read something like: Money needed. Please send $1 to the address below. Do it

    today!No specific need was given, and nothing was promised in return, so that fraud could not

    later be charged.

    Yet within a few months, thousands of dollars arrived in his mailbox, a considerable sum in

    those days. Or so the urban legend goes.

    P2P Money

    A half-century later, many things have changed, but one thing remains unchanged: People still

    need money, and they have not ceased to innovate ways in which to get it.

    We have written extensively in this space about many of the P2P Internet connections that are

    transforming the planet... in commerce, in education, in the job market, and with business and

    social networking. The list of possibilities is truly endless. For yet another example, the world of

    money has been given a Red-Bull jolt by a fast-growing phenomenon known as "crowdfunding."

    Previously, if you had a grand scheme for a new product or service and you needed seed

    money to get your project off the ground, you had to save it yourself, borrow from friends

    and relatives, or go with begging bowl to your local bank, which was unlikely to see you as

    the next Steve Jobs. If it was a big enough idea, you might even attract the attention of a

    venture capital (VC) company, but there you had to be prepared to offer many pounds of flesh in

    return. And still, those ideas that didn't meet with bank criteria (there's no collateral for a

    software startup) yet weren't large enough for the VC crowd often fell into a no man's land,

    scraping out some funding from unorganized, so-called "angel" investors, or never getting

    funded at all.

    More recently, we've seen the rise of for-profit Internet alternatives to traditional lending, such

    as Prosper, Zopa, and the market leader, LendingClub. These P2P companies specialize in small

    loans LendingClub's limit is $35,000. They don't originate loans they facilitate them, cutting

    out the banks and creating a situation that allows individuals with spare cash directly to invest inother people's dreams, while the dreamers can borrow based on the public responses to their

    particular (hopefully compelling) stories. For each loan, there is a multitude of lenders, not just

    one.

    It's a win-win proposition. Borrowers receive below-market rates with less hassle than is

    usually encountered at a traditional financial institution. Investors get an excellent rate of

    return, and can attenuate risk by building a portfolio spread across multiple loans. And

    LendingClub prospers by taking a cut. The site claims a very low default rate of less than 3%

    since its inception in 2007, and it has been a monster success. To date, LendingClub has

    negotiated nearly a billion dollars in loans, a meteoric ascent from about $175 million just twoyears ago.

    Other, more philanthropically oriented organizations either are or function a little more

    http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2eI0Ch4iF1Y/story01.htmhttp://www.lendingclub.com/http://uk.zopa.com/http://www.prosper.com/http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/there-wisdom-crowd?ppref=ZHB470ED1112Ahttp://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Ra3kcHPPp-RMeBbVh6Ir_PUMK_8/1/dahttp://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/Ra3kcHPPp-RMeBbVh6Ir_PUMK_8/0/dahttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2eI0Ch4iF1Y/story01.htm
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    like nonprofits. They solicit donations in order to make very small micro-loans to budding

    entrepreneurs, primarily in the developing world. Donors either simply get their money back, or

    the principal plus a small amount of interest. Those that work this way include Kiva, Zidisha,

    Fundable, PayPal's MicroPlace, GlobalGiving, FirstGiving, CreateaFund, Calvert Foundation's

    Community Impact Investing, and the Grameen Foundation, which received tremendous

    worldwide publicity when its partner organization Grameen Bank shared the Nobel Peace Prize

    with Muhammad Yunus in 2006.

    At the other extreme if you're an upscale investor looking outside of the traditional

    markets for greater risk/reward potential there are alternatives for you as well, in the

    form of secondary markets. Sites such as SharesPost and SecondMarket provide access to

    participation in private placements and the purchase of already existing, pre-IPO shares in

    privately held companies. These opportunities are generally only open to accredited investors,

    i.e., those who can verify that they are high-net-worth individuals and attest that they're

    comfortable with assuming a high degree of risk.

    Not quite so well-heeled? You can still play the game.MicroVentures was the first Internet

    broker/dealer to help startups in the US raise capital in exchange for equity. Companies can

    apply for up to $500,000, and individuals can buy in with an investment as low as $1,000.

    There's also MediaShares, which offers companies the opportunity to crowdfund IPOs, and

    investors the chance to buy as little as a single share of stock. The stock can be sold online, with

    or without an underwriter. A new US law (H.R.1070) has been passed by Congress that will allow

    for advertising the sale of stock to the general public and selling to non-accredited investors;

    this is expected to greatly expand these types of online offerings. Crowdcube,Grow VC, and

    Symbid also finance business startups. SeedUps specializes in tech.

    Clearly there are a lot of new and imaginative ways of moving money around that vie forour attention. Many of them would be considered crowdfunding (derived from the general term

    "crowdsourcing," which has traditionally referred to works like Wikipedia driven by large

    numbers of amateur contributors), since the definition of this term still tends to be on the loose

    side. It can be applied very widely, as Wikipedia does, calling it any "collective effort of

    individuals who network and pool their resources, usually via the Internet, to support efforts

    initiated by other people or organizations."

    Crowdfunding, if thought of merely as the pooling of resources for a common cause, is as

    old as human groupings. Neighbors pitching in to help someone who's had a house fire,

    supporting the local rescue squad, sending truckloads of canned goods to disaster areas all of

    these cooperative efforts represent crowdfunding of a sort.

    But that isn't the way it's thought of nowadays. In fact, the very term "crowdfunding" is just

    six years old, with Word Spy attributing its first official appearance in print to blogger Michael

    Sullivan on his fundavlog of August 12, 2006. And the first book on the subject Kevin Lawton

    and Dan Marom's The Crowdfunding Revolution wasn't published until October, 2010.

    In contemporary usage, "crowdfunding" is generally defined as an ongoing money-raising

    effort organized through the Internet. As such, it is intimately related to and initiated by

    online communities and social networks. However, while a given crowd might pre-exist as a

    community, it can also arise completely spontaneously, from disparate groups around the world

    which happen to share an interest in funding a person, project, or whatever. And it can be

    brought together by a website whose purpose is just that. These are the characteristics that

    http://wordspy.com/http://www.seedups.com/http://www.symbid.com/http://www.growvc.com/main/http://www.crowdcube.com/http://www.mediashares.com/http://www.microventures.com/https://www.secondmarket.com/https://welcome.sharespost.com/http://www.grameenfoundation.org/http://www.calvertfoundation.org/invest/community-investinghttp://www.createafund.com/index.php?route=homehttp://www.firstgiving.com/http://www.globalgiving.org/https://www.microplace.com/http://www.fundable.org/http://www.zidisha.org/index.phphttp://www.kiva.org/
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    distinguish crowdfunding from traditional co-ops.

    Funding the Arts

    Early crowdfunding efforts often involved musical groups that needed cash to advance their

    careers. A British rock group, Marillion, wanted to tour the US in 1997, but the band lamented

    on a newsgroup that they couldn't hack it financially themselves, and their record company

    wasn't prepared to pony up the support money.

    Marillion's fans then took it upon themselves to raise the necessary bucks. Word went out via the

    Net, and the money poured in. With just a live CD promised in return, the band raised $60,000

    from all over the world. Later, Marillion went on to tap its Internet fan base to fund the

    production and distribution of subsequent albums, cutting out the record company

    entirely.

    ArtistShare, founded in 2000, formalized the concept, becoming the first fully crowdfunded

    website for music. In 2005, American composer Maria Schneider's Concert in the Gardenbecame

    the first album in history to win a Grammy Award without being available in retail stores. The

    album, funded through ArtistShare, received four nominations that year and copped the Grammy

    for "best large jazz ensemble album." Since then, ArtistShare projects have received several

    other nominations and taken home four additional Grammies.

    Other music-centric crowdfunding sites followed ArtistShare's lead, including SellaBand (2006)

    and PledgeMusic (2009).

    Music and the arts have always been logical targets for crowdfunding and, with barriers to

    entry in the movie business historically so high, film was a natural. Movie crowdfunding was

    initiated by French entrepreneurs and producers Benjamin Pommeraud and Guillaume Colboc in

    August 2004, when they launched a public Internet donation campaign to fund their film,

    Demain la Veille (Waiting for Yesterday). Within three weeks, they managed to raise $50,000,

    allowing them to make the picture.

    Spanner Films has been a centrally organized pioneer in this area, and has even published a

    guide titled How to Crowdfund Your Film, just in case you have any great cinematic ideas.

    Spanner crowdfunded a film called The Age of Stupid, set in 2055 and starring Oscar nominee

    Pete Postlethwaite. Further taking advantage of the Internet, the company in September 2009

    pulled off a gala global premiere, satellite-linking to more than 700 cinemas and other venues

    in 63 countries, with a total audience of more than a million people.

    Many, many other sites including RocketHub, Sponsume, My Show Must Go On, AKA Starter,

    inkubato, and A Swarm of Angels have set up shop to service the creative arts.

    One of them, Indiegogo, originally focused on fundraising for independent film, and was

    launched at Sundance in 2008. But the site soon branched out into all sorts of creative projects,

    whose breadth is confirmed by a quick look at the projects currently listed: game development;

    a graphic novel; a documentary film; a gender-transition calendar; a Canadian comic-book

    anthology; an asthma education app; traveling dramatic performances; and some kind ofknitting endeavor (which you can back if you read German), among others.

    As an example of how these things work, here's Indiegogo's model: Entrepreneurs create a

    page for their funding campaign, set up an account with PayPal, make a list of "perks" for

    http://www.indiegogo.com/http://www.aswarmofangels.com/http://www.inkubato.com/en/http://www.akastarter.com/http://www.myshowmustgoon.com/http://www.sponsume.com/http://www.rockethub.com/http://www.spannerfilms.net/how_to_crowd_fund_your_filmhttp://www.spannerfilms.net/http://www.pledgemusic.com/https://www.sellaband.com/http://artistshare.com/v4/
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    different levels of donation, set a fundraising goal in dollars (or euros, pounds, etc.), then

    create a social-media-based publicity effort. They publicize the projects themselves, through

    Facebook, Twitter, and the like. Postings are free, and users have 100% ownership of their

    campaigns.

    In the end, Indiegogo collects 4% if you reach your goal, but allows you to keep money raised

    even if you don't, minus 9% (to encourage people to set "reasonable" goals). If you fail to reach

    your goal, you may also elect to return all money to contributors, and you will owe nothing.

    Kick It into Gear

    Then there is the current king of the hill, Kickstarter. Launched in April of 2009, the site has

    been a massive success. At the moment, Kickstarter says that over $350 million has been

    pledged by more than 2.5 million people, successfully funding more than 31,000 creative

    projects "in the worlds of Art, Comics, Dance, Design, Fashion, Film, Food, Games, Music,

    Photography, Publishing, Technology, and Theater."

    The bulk of Kickstarter-funded projects 68% were in the $1,000-10,000 range. But 300

    raised between $100,000 and $1 million, and 13 raised in excess of $1 million. Of those that

    are posted, about 45% fully meet their goals, and about 12% end without having received any

    pledges. 82% of those that reach 20% of their goal go on to attain full funding.

    Kickstarter is an "all or nothing" proposition. Project creators make their pitch, set a funding

    goal, and a deadline by which the full amount must be raised. If they succeed, donors' credit

    cards are charged at that time; if they don't make it, no one is charged anything. Kickstarter

    takes a 5% cut of successful fundraisers, and payment processing fees can claim another 3-5%.

    Outside of that, creators keep 100% of the money and retain all rights to their projects.

    Backers receive no equity or financial payback, but are promised "rewards," depending on

    one's pledge level. Mostly, people participate in good faith, contributing to something they

    believe in. Kickstarter's "Terms of Use require creators to fulfill all rewards of their project or

    refund any backer whose reward they do not or cannot fulfill." But there are no legal guarantees.

    If a Kickstarter project really tickles people's fancies, the results can be stunning. For

    instance, a modest project currently listed on its start page began with a goal of $5,000 and,

    with the deadline still two weeks away, has pulled in almost $110,000.

    Where To from Here?

    So, is crowdfunding the future capital source for every new venture under the sun? Well,

    probably not... although we can't say for sure, because it does sometimes seem that way. In no

    particular order, some current and projected applications include:

    Journalism With Spot.us and Global for me, the public provides suggestions and tips for

    stories. When a journalist accepts a suggestion, he creates a pitch, which is then funded

    by those who are interested. Whether this will gain any traction with readers accustomed

    to free Internet news content remains to be seen.Politics Democratic candidates can benefit from ActBlue, a crowdsourced fundraising

    site that allows anyone to be part of a PAC. Since 2004, ActBlue has raised over $300

    million. Across the aisle, Ron Paul ran his campaign for the presidential nomination

    lar el throu h crowdfundin .

    https://secure.actblue.com/http://www.globalfm.com/http://spot.us/http://www.kickstarter.com/
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    Public projects Want those bike lanes but your town is out of money? You can turn to

    CivicSponsor.

    Fashion Milk and Honey Shoes allows customers to design their own shoes. Several

    other sites that will let consumers participate in designing new fashions are currently

    under development.

    Personal wants and needs GoFundMe specializes in fundraising for individuals, for

    everything from weddings to funerals, and medical expenses to high-school trips. Greedyor Needy aims to fund make-a-wishes without the necessity of going through a big

    foundation. Kapipal teams up with PayPal to finance just about anything.

    Science Still in its infancy, science crowdfunding has many researchers excited about

    the possibilities. RocketHub's #SciFund Challenge was the first crowdfunding initiative to

    support science projects, while Petridish invites donors to "fund science & explore the

    world with renowned researchers."

    Biotech On October 1, biopharmaceutical antibacterial drug-discovery company

    Antabio, and WiSEED, the French crowdfunding platform dedicated to technologic

    startups, announce the successful completion of their seed round of financing. Initially

    funded by more than 200 small investors, Antabio was able to finance a key step in the

    validation of its drug-candidate molecules, bringing it to the attention of some major

    players in the drug-discovery arena.

    Cars According to Gizmag, Local Motors "is a small Phoenix, Arizona-based automotive

    firm that uses crowd sourcing for brainstorming, designing, refining and developing

    vehicle ideas. They work with an Internet community of more than 20,000 designers,

    engineers, auto enthusiasts and other passionate minds toward developing unique,

    customer-centric offerings." They're currently working with BMW to crowdsource the

    Beamers of the future.

    DIY Launcht claims it "empowers universities, nonprofits, startup crowdfunding portals

    and others" to design and implement "their own custom white label crowdfunding &

    voting platforms."

    Brewskies BeerBankroll is your destination if you want to help fund a small brewery.

    And so on.

    It's difficult to overstate how fast and furious crowdfunding has grown (but it pales in

    comparison to the growth potential ofa new technology in replication). So red-hot is the

    sector that a whole secondary support network has popped up out of nowhere, largely as a

    result of the 2012 passage of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, which effectively

    lifted a previous ban against public solicitation for private companies raising funds. Among the

    nascent bureaucracies there is now a National Crowdfunding Association (NLCFA), National

    Crowdfunding Association of Canada, World Crowdfund Federation, Crowdfund Intermediary

    Regulatory Advocates, and Crowdfunding Professional Association (CfPA), all of which sprang

    into existence subsequent to the passage of JOBS. The CfPA offers a course in Crowdfunding

    101 and sponsors a Crowdfunding Bootcamp to teach entrepreneurs how to master the process.

    While crowdfunding does not yet have the Web presence of some other services, it's

    headed up with a bullet. Alexa, a leading Web information company, ranks some 30 millionwebsites worldwide, according to the amount of traffic users of its toolbar generate. Its statistics

    are considered one of the most accurate yardsticks by which site popularity can be measured.

    As of August 2012, crowdfunders were nowhere near challenging the top 10 megasites like

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/cm/greatest-technology-investments?ppref=CSR470ED1112Ahttp://www.beerbankroll.com/http://www.launcht.com/http://www.localmotors.com/http://www.wiseed.fr/http://www.petridish.org/http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23SciFundhttp://www.rockethub.com/projects/scifundhttp://www.kapipal.com/http://www.greedyorneedy.com/http://gofundme.com/http://www.milkandhoneyshoes.com/http://www.civicsponsor.org/
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    Google, Facebook, YouTube, Wikipedia, Twitter, and Amazon. But Kickstarter was in 748th

    place, followed by Indiegogo (#1,798). Rounding out the ten most-visited crowdfunders were

    GoFundMe (10,892), ChipIn (28,394), RocketHub (47,424), GiveForward (52,383), Fundable

    (60,149), Crowdtilt (133,246), crowdfunder (105,447), and appbackr (125,977).

    Pros and Cons and Cons

    The pros of crowdfunding the Internet's P2P ability to unite worthy projects with seed

    capital, in the absence of conventional funding sources, and bring dreams to life are

    obvious. But what of the cons?

    Well, there's fraud, for one. Though crowdfunding sites claim to do detailed background

    checking before clearing a project to be posted, in reality this is fertile new ground for scam

    artists. In fact, in August the Massachusetts Securities Division charged a Lowell man in a

    crowdfunding scam, alleging that he had bilked 20 investors who thought they were putting

    money into a gaming site out of more than $150,000.

    Regulation of securities issuance is another sticky topic. Questions about crowdfunding

    campaigns involving unaccredited investors and private companies are being closely examined

    in Washington. Complicating the matter is that due diligence can be very hard if not impossible

    for a prospective investor to do prior to offering startup money for a new company, and that the

    stock those companies are offering is often not intended to be traded on any recognized

    exchange. Private offerings for oil and gas drilling, which are not SEC-registered, are another

    area of concern.

    Though the SEC has yet to set any hard-and-fast rules in place regarding equities, it is widely

    expected to stick some fingers into this rapidly baking pie as soon as the next few months.

    Further, the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) publishes an annual

    list of emerging threats to investors. This year, NASAA included crowdfunding on its list of

    worries, warning that fraudsters could use it in new scams involving such unexplored territory as

    precious metals, real estate, and promissory notes.

    Although not overtly fraudulent, there are also going to be ideas (including possibly some

    great ones) for which the funding goal is unrealistic. A September Reutersarticle discussed a

    Kickstarter project called Lifx, which intends to develop a dimmable, WiFi-enabled, multicolor,

    energy efficient, 25-year LED light bulb that you control with your iPhone or Android... and tostart shipping finished product by next March. Talk about ambitious. So far, the bulb is a

    monster Kickstarter hit, and the project is oversubscribed. Backers have thought so highly of it

    that they've ponied up more than $1.3 million, in return for which they'll get well, some bulbs.

    Once they're in production.

    Unfortunately, as the Reuterspiece pointed out, "Coming up with a truly worthy LED bulb is

    enormously complex, requiring expertise in physics, chemistry, optics, design, and

    manufacturing." One of the early entrants into the space, the Switch bulb, has received an eight-

    figure investment from one VC company alone; it was promised in October of 2011 and still

    hasn't arrived. Phillips, which won a $10-million government prize by marketing the first LED

    bulb, spent much more than that in development. So maybe Lifx can deliver the goods for

    $1.3M, and good for them if they can. But investors should probably be at least a little skeptical

    that they'll ever be dimming the room lighting with their phones.

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    If, instead of bulbs or other manufactured goods that may not show up, you're looking for a

    return on capital i.e., investing in a startup that's offering stock you are also likely to be

    disappointed, since more than half of all new small businesses fail within five years. Should you

    wish to make such an investment, it would seem sensible to find one in your immediate area, so

    you can check it out with your own boots on the ground.

    Then there is intellectual-property theft. Most basement innovators probably haven't

    patented their ideas before presenting them to the waiting world, which means there's nothing

    to prevent someone with deeper pockets from stealing the idea, producing the product, and

    getting it to market first.

    The reverse is also possible. Someone may, knowingly or unknowingly, post a project that

    infringes on someone else's patent or intellectual-property rights. According to a recent story

    in Wired, this has happened on Kickstarter at least five times since April.

    On balance, though, we're optimistic. All of these potential drawbacks will eventually work

    themselves out in the marketplace, we're sure, provided that forthcoming government

    regulations don't make it too difficult for these sites to thrive.

    Investment Implications

    Crowdfunders may facilitate transfers of newly minted stock to investors, but they don't sell

    stock in themselves, so there are no opportunities here, at least for the time being.

    However, there are some income-producing sites, like Lending Club, that have been very

    successful at returning a decent yield. Some Casey Research employees are invested in them,

    and they may interest readers who are willing to do their homework. By all means, check them

    out for purposes of portfolio diversification if you'd like to or crowdfund your own pet project.

    zero hedge - posted on Today at 02:26by Tyler Durden

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