gtsp work plan and recent research results...10:45 a.m. gtsp phase 4: paradigm, research themes,...

GTSP Work Plan and Recent Research Results

Jae Edmonds and Leon Clarke

December 1, 2010

Cosmos ClubWashington, DC

Agenda W ednesday December 01, 2010

8:30 a.m. Breakfast

9:15 a.m. Welcome and Meeting Goals

Jae Edmonds, Co-Director, GTSP

9:25 a.m. GTSP in the Context of O ther JGCRI IAM Activities Anthony Janetos, Director JGCRI

9:45 a.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Capstone Report: Update on Progress Jae Edmonds

10:45 a.m. GTSP Phase 4: Paradigm, Research Themes, Model Development, and Organization Leon Clarke

11:45 a.m. The GTSP Website and Working Lunch Leon Clarke, Co-Director, GTSP

12:30 p.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Work Plan and Research Results Since May Jae Edmonds

1:00 p.m. Model Development and Staffing Leon Clarke

1:30 p.m. Community Activities: IAMC , IPCC Impacts Scenarios Jae Edmonds

2:00 p.m. 3:00 p.m.

Community Activities: IPCC SRRE N , AM E , E M F 24 Leon Clarke O ther Issues Leon Clarke

3:30 p.m. Adjourn

The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium

IAMCINTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING CONSORTIUM

http://www.iamconsortium.org/

Founded 2007

Physical Earth SystemsHuman Earth Systems

The IAMCThe Integrated Assessment Consortium (IAMC) was created in 2007 in response to a call from the IPCC for an organization to lead the integrated assessment modeling community in the development of new scenarios that could be employed by climate modelers in the development of prospective ensemble numerical experiments for both the near term and long term.Leaders from 3 institutions, John Weyant (EMF), Nebojsa Nakicenovic (IIASA) and Mikiko Kainuma (NIES), invited other research organizations to join with them to form the IAMC for the purpose of developing scenarios.

These became the 4 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios.



Founded 2007


Aims of the IAMCThe Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) exists to facilitate and foster the development of integrated assessment models (IAMs), peer interaction and vetting, and the conduct of research employing IAMs, including model diagnosis, intercomparison, and coordinated studies.The IAMC also exists to facilitate and coordinate IAM research with research conducted in both the Climate Modeling (CM) and the Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) research communities.The IAMC also exists to provide a point of contact with other institutions and organizations interacting with the IAM community, e.g. the IPCC.



Founded 2007


GovernanceThe IAMC Organization

Scientific Steering Committee (SSCs)Advisory Council

Conduct of IAMC workThe work of the IAMC is conducted through Scientific Working Groups (SWGs) chartered by the SSC and Community research programs undertaken by IAMC member organizationsCollaborations with other organizations



Founded 2007


The Scientific Steering Committee

Although most of the work of the IAMC will be carried out through SWGs, the SSCprovides the leadership for the IAMC and is ultimately responsible for the governance and all of the work of the IAMC. In specific, the responsibilities of the SSC include:

Identify potential research priorities and opportunities based on input from IAMC member organizations and the IAMC Advisory Council. Identify issues to be addressed by SWGs and form, oversee, approve, and communicate work by SWGs; Review and recommend activities brought to it by IAMC member organizations and potential partner organizations; Serve as a point of contact of other external bodies, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Secure and shepherd the resources necessary to successful conduct the business of the IAMC. Establish an IAMC Secretariat to help with administrative tasks.

The SSC takes decisions by consensus.



Founded 2007


Current (Founding) SSC Members

Sustaining SSC Members are (November, 2009):Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL

Research Institute (PNNL/JGCRI)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)

At-Large SSC Members are (November, 2009):Indian Institute of Management

China Energy Research InstitutePotsdam Institute for Climate Research

An election will be held to identify the remaining three At-Large members of the SSC.



Founded 2007


Current Scientific Working Groups

So far the Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) has chartered four Scientific Working Groups (SWGs):

Working Group on Representative Concentration PathwaysWorking Group on Research PrioritiesWorking Group on Data Protocols and ManagementWorking Group on Narratives/Story Lines



Founded 2007


SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH PRIORITIES

The SWG on Community Research Priorities

Chartered at the 2009 IAMC Scientific Steering Group meeting in Tsukuba, Japan.Chair: Jae EdmondsMembers:

Kate CalvinLeon ClarkeMikiko Kainuma Tom KramVolker Krey

Elmar Kriegler

Keywan RiahiDetlef van VuurenJohn Weyant



Founded 2007


Activities for the Scientific Working Group on Research Priorities

Catalogue of current and recent IAMC activities, includingCompleted: EMF 22, RECIPE, ADAM, Ongoing: RoSE, AME, EMF 24, CPO, AMPERE, PIAMDDI

Identify IAMC research and capacity-building prioritiesTake into account interests of external communities, such as the IPCC, the VIA community, governments decision makers and so forth

Map research priorities to existing IAMC activities.Identify gaps in the community agenda.

Vet this with the larger IAMC community.Discussions at the annual meeting.Make the draft report available for comment by all IAMC members.



Founded 2007


Timeline for Scientific Working Group on Research Priorities

Preparation for next IAMC meetingPrepare a short paper to spur discussionPrepare slides for discussion

Meet in DC and discussRevise the material

Produce material for the IAMC websiteWrite a paper for publication



Founded 2007


IAMC Research PrioritiesTechnology and mitigation scenarios (Clarke/Riahi) Policy scenarios (imperfect and perfect) (Kriegler)Second-best worlds (Kriegler)Regional scenarios (Calvin)Development, Demographics, and Urbanization Integration between energy, economy, land use and water (van Vuuren/Edmonds)Interactions between climate mitigation, climate adaptation, residual impacts (van Vuuren/Edmonds)RCPs, Post-RCP replication and storylines (Kram, Van Vuuren, and Edmonds)Uncertainty (Kriegler/Bosetti)



Founded 2007


IAMC Capacity-Building Priorities

Diagnostic scenarios (Weyant/Kriegler)

Model Validation and Data Development (Edmonds)

Standardized Data Template and Community Data Base (Krey/Calvin)



Founded 2007


Technology and Mitigation Scenarios

Background: Technology and policy are the two largest determinants of feasibility and cost.Scientific Question: Are there any essential technologies, e.g. nuclear or CCS? Are present technologies sufficient?Why This Is A Community Research Priority?While any individual modeling team can explore these questions, results from a community activity help determine the generality of findings.Developing A Community Activity: We have begun this investigation in EMF 24 and AME and other community activities e.g. RoSE. Potential to do more.



Founded 2007


Policy scenariosBackground: increasingly called for. Investigation of long-term climate policy require policy specifications across all regions out to 2050-2100.Scientific Question: How can generic, but still regionally differentiated scenarios be identified? How can different types of policy scenarios be characterized (including a discussion of policies included in the baseline)?.Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Individual modeling teams and projects are all confronted with the request for more policy realism. Exchanging experience and establishing a set of useful policy scenarios improve results and help determine generality of findings. Developing A Community Activity: We have begun this investigation in EMF 22, 24 and other community activities such as RoSE. Potential to do more.



Founded 2007


Second-best Worlds

Background: Second best worlds include imperfect markets. GHG pricing in isolation is sub-optimal. Can have a large impact on feasibility and mitigation costs Scientific Question: What type of market failures are key factors and how can they be tackled in IAMs. What are the implications for costs and feasibility of mitigation policies?Why This Is A Community Research Priority?Richer description of real world situation. Large implications on mitigation strategy and costs need to be considered. IPCC WGIII calls for deeper investigation of 2nd best worlds.Developing A Community Activity: Exchange experience on existing 2nd best analyses. Build common understanding which and how 2nd best situations can be studied. We have begun this investigation in EMF 22, 24 and other community activities such as RoSE. Potential to do more.



Founded 2007


Regional ScenariosBackground: Emissions mitigation and climate change occur at regional scales. We use the term region in two different contexts elements of IAMs and geographic areas at finer spatial scales than in IAMs.Scientific Question: What is the role of individual regions in shaping emissions and emissions mitigation? How does climate mitigation and adaptation take place at local scales consistent with larger global forces?Why This Is A Community Research Priority?Community activities that link regional experts with global modelers can improve both regional and global modeling results.Developing A Community Activity: This has begun with the Asia Modeling Exercise (AME). There is potential to expand on this model. Individual IAM teams are working to develop high-resolution disaggregations regional integrated models.



Founded 2007


Development, Demographics, and Urbanization

Background: Most analysis use limited demographic information.Scientific Question: What difference does varying demographic assumptions make? How are demographics, urbanization and economic development related?Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Community activities could improve the quality of analysis in the community.Developing A Community Activity: Model intercomparison on alternative demographic tracks, urbanization and development (e.g. AME), development of community demographic tools.



Founded 2007


Integration Between Energy, Economy, Land Use and Water

Background: IAMs do not presently include water, yet water could be an important constraint on energy systems.Scientific Question: Do emissions mitigation results change when water is explicitly included. This could be particularly important for bioenergy, and power plants which need cooling.Why This Is A Community Research Priority? The community would benefit from coordinated activities to assemble models and data.Developing A Community Activity: Individual teams have begun to develop research efforts. No present activities have been developed yet.



Founded 2007


Interactions Between Climate Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, Residual Impacts

Background: Emissions, climate change and impacts-adaptation occur concurrently.Scientific Question: How are climate mitigation and adaptation affected by the presence of the other? Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Large investments will need to be made to link state of the art human systems models with state of the art climate models, but coordination would benefit all.Developing A Community Activity: Several modeling teams have begun working on this problem. Coordination would be beneficial.



Founded 2007


RCPs, Post-RCP replication and storylines

Background: The Noordwijkerhout plan calls for RCPs and a jump start to the next assessment cycle, but needs to be followed by replications and efforts to develop scenarios that would be useful to the IAV community.Scientific Question: Can these RCPs be replicated by other teams? Can we better organize linkages between the IAM and VIA community? How can the information resulting from the climate modeling experiments be used to enrich the representation of the climate system and carbon cycle in IAMs?Why This Is A Community Research Priority? RCPs are a core mission of the IAMC.Developing A Community Activity: RCPs are complete. Replication and new scenarios for IAV use under development.



Founded 2007


Uncertainty

Background Prediction is difficult, particularly attributed to various sources.

Most work is deterministic.Scientific Question: How do results change when uncertainty is treated explicitly? Why This Is A Community Research Priority?Researchers have traditionally developed uncertainty as individual teams, but no coordinated project has been organized since early EMF work.Developing A Community Activity: This would require a lead organization.



Founded 2007


Diagnostic Scenarios

Background: IAMs are complex, but contain modules that perform common functions.Scientific Question: How well do individual model components perform? Why This Is A Community Research Priority?The IAM community could benefit from comparing component performance.Developing A Community Activity: This would require a lead organization.



Founded 2007


Model Validation and Data Development

Background: Models use a variety of data sources. Models also have, in general not gone through any formal validation process.Scientific Question: How well would IAMs do, if they were given the challenge of predicting the present starting 50 to 100 years in the past?Why This Is A Community Research Priority? IA models have been criticized for not back casting or validating. The community would benefit if it could put this issue to rest.Developing A Community Activity: Would require development of data bases for the models, consistent with the long-term nature of the models. Procedures and protocols would need to be developed. Diagnostic work. Who would sponsor?



Founded 2007


Standardized Data Template and Community Data Base

Background: Each modeling team has traditionally developed its own reporting conventions.Why This Is A Community Research Priority? Use of a common format for community activities would greatly improve model comparability.Developing A Community Activity: Work is currently underway through the IAMC SWG on Working Group on Data Protocols and Management.



Founded 2007


Where Are We Going From Here?-

On each of the priorities.On existing community activities.

Summaries will be put up on the IAMC web site for information and comment.

community activities.Summaries will be used as the basis for an IAMC research priorities document.



Founded 2007


DATA PROTOCOLS AND MANAGEMENT

Data Protocols and Management

Kate Calvin, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi

with contributions from many other people

IAMC Annual Meeting, 28-29 October 2010, Washington DC

Why is this a priority?

Modeling comparison exercises and scenario reviews have expanded over the past yearsHandling the data requests has become a pain for the modeling teamsManual data processing due to varying templates is error-proneIncorporate quality control mechanismsData availability improves transparency and credibilityEasy data access can foster interesting analysis of scenario data (follow the example of the climate modeling community)

What happened so far?

September 2009: Initial Discussions at the IAMC Annual Meeting 2009, TsukubaOctober/November 2009: Series of Conference Calls with interested people from PNNL, PBL, NIES, IIASADecember 2009: 1st AME data templateMay 2010: 2nd AME data templateJuly 2010: database prototype shown at SnowmassAugust 2010: 1st EMF24 data templateSeptember 2010: Launch of EMF24 online database based on the 1st EMF24 data template

The Data Template

People involved: Kate Calvin (PNNL), Leon Clarke (PNNL), Tatsuya Hanaoka (NIES), Mikiko Kainuma (NIES), Peter Kolp (IIASA), Volker Krey (IIASA), Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Bas van Ruijven (PBL) Objectives in designing the template:

Prescribe a structure that can easily be parsedFormat should be adaptable to future needsKeep the barrier low: format should be manageable manually as well as in an automated fashion

Results: Data container (spreadsheet) and sets of variables (core and extended)

The Data Template Time Series

The Data Template Variables

The Database

RCP database served as a starting pointAdded functionality

User/group managementInteractive scenario uploads

Some initial quality checks (model, variable and region names)

First prototype presented at Snowmass 2010First application in EMF24

Improvements in EMF24 SubmissionStability

Servlet and importer decoupledMore resistant against changes in original template

PerformanceImports ~50 times faster than initiallyRule of thumb: ~1 second per scenario and region

Some ChecksRegion submission check (similar to variables spelling differences, etc.)

Improved communicationMessages upon queuing and completion of import

Plans for the EMF24 Database

Additional historical dataAutomatic quality checks

Match with historical data (+/- x%)Consistent primary energy and fossil & industrial CO2 emissionsPredefined scenario names?

History

The Way Forward: Issues and Ideas (1)

extended list of variables including documentationEstablish process for updating the template

collect proposals for new variables continuouslyrevisit regularly (e.g. once a year)

Extension to spatial data setsbuilding on initial work done in the RCP process

Look at examples in other communities, for example Program for

Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)

The Way Forward: Issues and Ideas (2)

Developing a community database beyond specific applications such as EMF24 or AME

Useful region definitions for public datadevelop criteria for submission (e.g. peer-reviewed publication)include references to underlying publicationssuggested citation for database

Other applications of the database platformcollect input data sets (e.g. technology database) as a community resource

Explore potential links to other research prioritiesStorylines and RCP replicationModel validation

Access and Legal Issues

Who should be able to access data?Internal data access in specific applications (e.g. EMF24)Public access to finalized/published data

Agreement between modeling groups, database host and data users

DisclaimerTerms of use Licensing (e.g. Creative/Scientific Commons License)

Build on experience of climate modeling communityCMIP5 website, etc.

THE STORYLINES SWG: IMPACTS SCENARIOS

The MatrixThe IAV community wants a variety of scenarios.

Different climate forcingDifferent socioeconomic assumptions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs)Different climate scenarios

Two different groups developed approaches to creating new pathways.

Van Vuuren, et al.Kriegler, et al.

The approaches were very similar.

Scenarios for the IAV community

The SSP would be defined by quantitative measures like population, GDP.The mitigation scenario would generate additional information, e.g. energy, agriculture, land prices. (consistency with land-use?)A qualitative storyline would allow local IAV studies to fill in the rest.

IMPACT = Exposure + Vulnerability!

high low

low mid high

2.6

4.5

6

8.5

Clim

ate

sign

al

VulnerabilitySSP or

A Strategic Plan

Lots of operational questions remainWho will produce these new scenarios?

Presumably the IAM community, but who?If there are lots of IAM models, will any two IAV studies be comparable?

Which climate model outputs?No thought has gone into trying to decide what to do with the ensemble nature of climate model numerical experiments.

Is the proposed time line remotely possible?

Will there be any relationship between this process and the U.S. National Assessment?

Agenda W ednesday December 01, 2010

8:30 a.m. Breakfast

9:15 a.m. Welcome and Meeting Goals

Jae Edmonds, Co-Director, GTSP

9:25 a.m. GTSP in the Context of O ther JGCRI IAM Activities Anthony Janetos, Director JGCRI

9:45 a.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Capstone Report: Update on Progress Jae Edmonds

10:45 a.m. GTSP Phase 4: Paradigm, Research Themes, Model Development, and Organization Leon Clarke

11:45 a.m. The GTSP Website and Working Lunch Leon Clarke, Co-Director, GTSP

12:30 p.m. The GTSP Phase 3 Work Plan and Research Results Since May Jae Edmonds

1:00 p.m. Model Development and Staffing Leon Clarke

1:30 p.m. Community Activities: IAMC , IPCC Impacts Scenarios Jae Edmonds

2:00 p.m. 3:00 p.m.

Community Activities: IPCC SRRE N , AM E , E M F 24 Leon Clarke O ther Issues Leon Clarke

3:30 p.m. Adjourn

gtsp work plan and recent research results...10:45 a.m. gtsp phase 4: paradigm, research themes,...

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