gsm/3g market update - itsi.org.za · pdf file4zte registered gsa ... edge/wcdma handover is...

Slide no. 1/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005

Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005

GSM/3G MARKET UPDATEFebruary, 2005

Global mobile Suppliers Associationwww.gsacom.com

Download this document and updates at www.gsacom.com

Published by GSA Secretariat Tel +44 1279 439 667 [email protected]



GSM/3G network deployments globally

4626 GSM networks commercially operational in 199 countries/territories

41.268 billion GSM subscribers at end 2004

4GSM grew 26 million per month in Q4 2004

4276.5 million GSM subscribers added in 2004

4GSM accounts for 75% of the world’s cellular market and over 80% of net current additions

4The GSM family of technologies embraces GPRS, EDGE, WCDMA and HSDPA

4Over 99.8% of the world’s population live in countries that have licensed GSM and/or WCDMA

February 2005 GSM/3G Network Update - GSM/3G market statistics, GSM, EDGE and WCDMA network deployments, devices www.gsacom.com



cdmaOnecdmaOne

GSMGSM

TDMA TDMA

2G

PDC PDC

CDMA2000 1x

CDMA2000 1x

First Step into 3G

GPRSGPRS 90%

10%

Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G

EDGEEDGE

WCDMAWCDMA

CDMA2000 1x EV/DVCDMA2000 1x EV/DV

3G phase 1 Evolved 3G

3GPP CoreNetwork

CDMA20001x EV/DOCDMA20001x EV/DO

HSDPAHSDPA

Expected market share



4Open standardized technology4Interoperability, roaming, competition,

roadmap security, end-to-end efficiency

4 Economies of scale41.268 billion GSM users (end Dec 2004)4GSM has 5.5 times larger number of

consumers and operators 4GSM has more advanced learning curve4GSM has sustainable cost advantage

4Growth 4GSM > 80% of all new users

Source: EMC 2003

0100200300400500600700800

Millions

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Mobile subscriptions

GSMCDMA

9001000

2004

(Feb)

Business fundamentals driving GSM success



Mobile technology growth, market share

GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4



Mobile subscribers growth– China, India




Mobile subscriber growth- Latin and Central America




4 First steps to 3G4242 commercial GPRS networks4130 networks deploying GPRS/EDGE451 commercial EDGE networks

(source: GSA, Feb 4, 05)4106 commercial Cdma2000 1x networks

(source: CDG, Feb 1, 2005)4 3G

4WCDMA: 134 licenses awarded464 commercial WCDMA networks

(source: GSA, Feb 4, 2005)418 commercial CDMA 1x EV-DO networks

(source: CDG, Feb 1, 2005)

Adoption of different mobile standards

4 Evolved 3G4HSDPA: all WCDMA operators expected to upgrade to HSDPA (SW upgrade to BTS) 4CDMA 1x EV-DV: expected fragmentation of operators into different evolution steps, due to required

hardware upgrades in each step

No. of commercial networks per mobile data standard

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

EDGE/GPRS CDMA2000-1x WCDMA 1xEV-DO



GSA research to February 4, 2005 confirms:134 WCDMA licences in 48 countries

64 commercial WCDMA networks in 31 countries

9 pre-commercial networks

WCDMA subscribers: 16.29 millions*

*(WCMDA subs at Dec 31, 2004 source Informa Telecoms & Media)

WCDMA - mature technologyglobally deployed in commercial service

Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSAand other qualified site users can download

GSA’s detailed list of commercial and pre-commercial networks in theWCDMA Fact Sheet - www.gsacom.com

IMPORTANT NOTE



WCDMA devices growth and suppliers

4Amoi

4BenQ

4Fujitsu

4HTC

4Huawei

4LG

4Lucent/Novatel

4Mitsubishi

4Motorola

4NEC

4Nokia

4NTT DoCoMo

(Raku Raku)

4Panasonic

4Samsung

4Sanyo

4Seiko

4Sharp

4Siemens

4Sony Ericsson

4Toshiba

4Vodafone (Datacard)

4ZTE

Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSA

and other qualified site users can downloadGSA’s detailed list of WCDMA devices in

WCDMA Devices - www.gsacom.com

Suppliers

IMPORTANT NOTE



EDGE - strong take up globally4130 operators in 75 countries are committed to deploy EDGE451 commercial EDGE networks on all continents

Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSAand other qualified site users can can download the

detailed list of commercial and pre-commercial networks inEDGE Operators Worldwide - www.gsacom.com

IMPORTANT NOTE




EDGE devices shipping or announced4 64 EDGE devices in the market (source: GSA: February 4, 2005)4 EDGE becoming standard in most new phones4 Covers all segments globally

Representatives from suppliers who are member organisations of

GSA and other qualified site users can download the list of

EDGE devices in EDGE Devices -www.gsacom.com

IMPORTANT NOTE




4EDGE (Enhanced GPRS) uses existing spectrum and sites

4Incremental investment for triple GPRS datarates, more voice capacity

4Natural evolution for all GSM operators - fastest path to 3G

4WCDMA in new IMT 2000 spectrum for highest rate 3G services/applications e.g. video calls

4WCDMA leverages GSM scale plus Japan/Korea markets for global service

4Gradual investment; step-by-step evolution; builds on existing applications/service portfolios

4GSM/EDGE/WCDMA for simple service migration, similar user experience, service continuity, roaming; high investment re-usability

4Integrated EDGE/WCDMA devices available; EDGE/WCDMA handover is commercial reality

GSM Operators path to 3G – combined EDGE/WCDMA- complementary, proven, mature, open technologies



Mobile operators deploying combinedWCDMA/EDGE networks include:

yÅlands Mobiltelefon, Finland

yMobilkom Austria

yBatelco, Bahrain

yCingular Wireless, USA

yElisa, Finland

yGPTC, Libya

yHong Kong CSL

yMaxis, Malaysia

yMTC Vodafone, Bahrain

yOrange, France

yPannon GSM, Hungary

yPolkomtel, Poland

yRogers Wireless, Canada

ySwisscom, Switzerland

yTelenor, Norway

yNetcom, Norway

yT-Mobile USA

yTelfort, Netherlands

yTeliaSonera, Finland

yTeliaSonera, Sweden

yTIM Greece

yTIM Italy

yVIP Net, Croatia



HSDPAHigh Speed Downlink Packet Access

HSDPA delivers a similar boost for WCDMA as EDGE does for GSM/GPRS. HSDPA boosts the air interface capacity by 2 times and delivers a 5-fold increase in data speeds in the downlink direction. HSDPA also shortens round-trip time between network and terminals and reduces variance in downlink transmission delay.These performance improvements are achieved by: 4bringing key functions e.g. scheduling of data packet transmission and processing of retransmissions into the base station – i.e. closer to the air interface 4using a short frame length to further accelerate packet scheduling for transmission 4employing incremental redundancy for minimizing the air-interface load caused by retransmissions 4adopting a new transport channel type - High Speed Downlink Shared Channel (HS-DSCH) to facilitate air interface channel sharing between several users 4adapting the modulation scheme and coding according to the quality of the radio link.



Commercial release of HSDPA is anticipated from 2H 2005. HSDPA will enable operators to deliver more advanced mobile broadband services such as Internet and corporate access. Its unprecedented data rates will allow users to download audio, video and large files or attachments significantly faster than currently possible. The large demand for broadband access, strong growth of laptop penetration combined with full mobility and wide-area coverage of WCDMA networks offers an attractive business opportunity for operators today.

WCDMA broadband access to Internet enables "everywhere working" and facilitates enterprise workers to stay in touch via advanced terminals or laptops, with their business partners and for consumers to access the Internet whenever and wherever they desire, at bandwidths equivalent to fixed broadband access services.

All WCDMA operators are expected to deploy HSDPA. The upgrade path from WCDMA to HSDPA is easy, as base stations only require a software upgrade. Today’s GSM scale economies will be available with HSDPA in the coming years.

Business Opportunities with HSDPA



Performance evolution of cellular technologies



4 Laptop Browsing ( Downloads)4 CDMA – The average download speed was about 50 kbps.4 EDGE – The average download speed was about 160 kbps.

4 Internet Streaming (Live TV)4 CDMA – The TV was not playing continuously but with breaks.4 EDGE – The TV was playing continuously and smoothly.

4 Video Streaming on Mobile (Live Videos)4 CDMA – not possible at present.4 EDGE – A smooth play of movie trailer.

Practical performance of EDGE and CDMA2000 1X- Observations from a GSM/EDGE and CDMA market



Wildstrom (columnist)

4I found downloads consistently hit speeds at a bit over 300 kilobits per second, at the low end of Verizon's claimed range of 300 to 500 kbps.

4No standardized QoS mechanisms

4Only best-effort services, e.g. bearers for video telephony or streaming not supported.

4Over-dimensioning of 50-150% required for delivery of real time services (e.g. streaming or video-telephony

4Typical speed for packet data services are 300-350 kbps in commercial networks (includes reduction from packet overheads)

4Standardized QoS mechanisms for conversational, streaming, interactive and background services

4WCDMA delivers efficiently virtually any service, including video telephony

4QoS management and wideband signal deliver highest spectral and cost-efficiency

EVDOWCDMA

Performance of WCDMA and EV-DO



Market take-up

Open standards & systems

proprietary systems

Note: conceptual illustration

Terminal

Server

Open & Standardized

interfaces

Openness fuelling market growth and innovation



There are millions of application developers globally, using OMA-standardized development tools 4This community is able to produce any service that is demanded from

various local consumer segments

In comparison, there are virtually no local developers for any single proprietary service standard, and only a maximum of a few thousands in each globally. 4Meeting the evolving consumer demands in all segments with a

proprietary platform is not possible in practise 4Prohibitive cost and time required to recruit and maintain a proprietary

developer community

2-3 Million Java-developers

Over 100 Million Java-enabled

GSM terminals

Customers want locally relevant applications- enabled only with an open, globally adopted platform



Global average roaming revenue is today 4%4Typically up to 25% of revenues may be contributed from roaming4 In the GSM community there are over 20,000+ roaming agreements in place

Indirect impact of roaming plays a major role in customer acquisition 4Virtually all potential data users require roaming as a basic part of service offering.4Only GSM provides automatic roaming facilities globally

Service roaming globally is also required with 3G

Service roaming globally possible only with GSM-family



Improved performance, decreasing cost of delivery

Typical average bit rates (peak rates higher)

WEB browsingCorporate data accessStreaming audio/video

Voice & SMS Presence/location

xHTML browsingApplication downloadingE-mail

MMS picture / video

Multitasking

3G-specific services take advantage of higher bandwidth

and/or real-time QoS

3G-specific services take advantage of higher bandwidth

and/or real-time QoS

A number of mobile services are bearer

independent in nature

A number of mobile services are bearer

independent in nature

HSDPA1-10Mbps

WCDMA128-384

kbps

EGPRS80-160kbps

GPRS30-40kbps

GSM10-40kbps

Push-to-talk

Broadbandin wide area

Video sharing Video telephonyReal-time IPmultimedia and gamesMulticasting

Services roadmap

CD

MA

2000

-EV

DO

CD

MA

2000

-EV

DV

CD

MA

2000

1x



3G is relevant today for all markets

4Capacity booster; operational and spectrum efficiencies

4Higher data speeds; all data services improve with speed

4enhances user experience

4Revenue growth with new data-enabled services

4Key for competitive differentiation

4EDGE: small upgrade to GPRS, big lift in performance, fast market entry

4WCDMA: in new spectrum at 2GHz (IMT-2000 core band)

4EDGE + WCDMA complementary and long term

4Evolved WCDMA (HSDPA/HSUPA) for mass market mobile IP multimedia



4WCDMA and EDGE are mature technologies4 64 commercial WCDMA networks; 51 commercial EDGE networks4 116 WCMDA devices + 64 EDGE devices in the market; and their development continues

4All enablers are in place for mass market data services take-up4 GPRS/EDGE, WCDMA/HSDPA agreed evolution path for majority of operators

4 Open standards deliver broadest market acceptance - highest usage levels4 Huge terminal variety; interoperability; roaming; richest applications/content, lowest cost of

ownership

4 Plan a fully integrated GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA onto harmonized common network4 One network; 2 access methods; many operators deploying EDGE/WCDMA for 3G delivery4 Seamless services continuity for maximum services momentum4 Integrated approach optimises CAPEX; smoothes the transition to 3G/WCDMA4 Expand services for global use via data roaming agreements

Conclusions



About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association- representing GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers globally

GSA is the only representative body for the GSM/3G supplier industry, bringing togetherall views on GSM/EDGE/WCDMA

Objectives4to strengthen promotion of GSM world-wide in new and existing markets4to support operators and promote the evolution of GSM as the platform for delivery of

third-generation (3G) multimedia services

GSA Executive Committee in 2005 comprises the leading GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers4Ericsson, Lucent Technologies, Nokia, and Siemens

Benefits of membership/join GSA – see www.gsacom.com/about/index.php4



Regional programs

Regional Chapters in India and APAC for:4Improved information sharing, dialogue, networking and lobbying4Assisting development of local markets and export opportunities4Action plans tailored for local needs4Leading contributors are Alcatel, Ericsson, Nokia, and Siemens4Workshops, briefings, exhibitions, conference speakers, newsletter (India)

4GSA India Chapter: P Balaji, Chairman, and Vice President, GSA4www.gsacom.com/chapters#india

4APAC Chapter: Anders Kager, Chairman, and Vice President, GSA4www.gsacom.com/chapters#apac

4Latin America - includes activities within European Commission @LIS program4Africa



GSM/3G Resources- GSM/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA

GMD™Newsletterwww.gsacom.com

GSM/3G Operators Zone for GSM-family operators

register at www.gsacom.com

Push to Talk on a Mobile Phone (Opinion Paper)www.gsacom.com

GSM/3G Network Update – NEW – February 2005 issuewww.gsacom.com

Services/market updates

www.gsacom.com/gmd/index.php4

WCDMA Databank – deployments, devices

www.gsacom.com

EDGE Databank – deployments, devices, platforms

www.gsacom.com

gsm/3g market update - itsi.org.za · pdf file4zte registered gsa ... edge/wcdma handover is...

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