growth with uncertaintyfi… · colorado change in population. 0. 20,000. 40,000. 60,000. 80,000....
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Growth with Uncertainty
University of Colorado Board of Regents
Richard WobbekindSenior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government RelationsLeeds School of BusinessUniversity of Colorado Boulder
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#COBizOutlook
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-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.
Real GDP GrowthQuarterly Real GDP
Average 1990-1999 Average 2010-2019Average 2000-2009
1.6
Perc
ent C
hang
e, S
AA
R
2.0
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-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Government Spending
0
1
2
3
4
5
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Quarterly SAAR
Year-over-Year
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Q22020
Q32020
Q42020
Q12021
Fixed Business Investment
Quarterly SAAR
Year-over-Year
Economic Growth
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody’s Analytics, and Consensus Forecasts
-3-2-101234567
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Q42019
Q12020
Q22020
Q32020
Q42020
Q12021
Net Exports
Exports YoY
Imports YoY
Quarterly SAARYear-over-Year
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National EmploymentMonth-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Thou
sand
s
Rec
essi
on 1
8 M
onth
s
Rec
essi
on 8
Mon
ths
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody’s Analytics, and the National Bureau of Economic Research.
176
60
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State Employment GrowthYear-over-Year December 2019
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
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Colorado Employment Growth
Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
40.1
Jobs
Add
ed, T
hous
ands
53.6
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Colorado 2020 Employment Change
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Jobs Added
-1 0 1 2 3
Percent Change
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction
Financial Activities
Other Services
Manufacturing
Natural Resources and Mining
Information
Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
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Employment In Current DecadePercent Change from January 2010
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
National
ColoradoColorado Springs
Greeley
Ft. Collins
PuebloGrand Junction
BoulderDenver
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
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0 1 2 3 4
Pueblo
Grand Junction
Fort Collins-Loveland
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Colorado Springs
Greeley
Percentage
Unemployment RateDecember 2019
Colorado 2.5% Seasonally Adjusted, 2.4% Unadjusted
0 1 2 3 4
Pueblo
Grand Junction
Fort Collins-Loveland
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood
Boulder
Colorado Springs
Greeley
Percentage
Employment Growth Rate, December 2019 YoY
Colorado 2.1%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
Regional Growth and Unemployment
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Colorado Labor Force
• LFPR on the rise:
• 66.7% December 2015• 69.1% December 2019
• 5th-highest nationally
• Colorado peak = 74.5% (1998)
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019
Labo
r Fo
rce
(Tho
usan
ds)
LFPR (Percent)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
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Labor Force and Unemployment RateNational by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, Q4 2019
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted.
46.5
58.162.2
69.373.5 74.8
5.3 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.70
15
30
45
60
75
Less than a highschool diploma
High schoolgraduates
Some college, nodegree
Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree
Perc
enta
ge
LFPR
Unemployment Rate
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Labor Force Participation RatesNational by Age Cohort, Q4 2019
0102030405060708090
100
20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +
Perc
enta
ge
Peak2019
1989 2000 1999
2019
Current2019
2019
Age Group
1997
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted.
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Colorado Change in Population
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Thou
sand
s
Net
Migration
Natu
ral In
crease
Colorado’s population changes• 76,349 in 2019• 72,620 in 2020
8th-fastest in total state growth
7th for percentage growth
Continued net in-migration• California• Texas• Florida• Illinois• New York
Sources: Colorado Demography Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Business Research Division.
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Colorado Wages 2019 Q2 (4Q Rolling Average)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Sector Total Employment (Thousands)
Year-over-YearEmployment Growth
Average Wages
Year-over-YearWage Growth
Above Average Total 1,106 3.0% $86,709 3.7%Management of companies and enterprises 42 4.3% $140,400 -1.6%Utilities 8 0.7% $108,005 6.0%Information 76 3.0% $107,040 5.7%Professional and technical services 230 4.4% $99,634 4.2%Finance and insurance 113 0.7% $98,137 3.3%Natural Resources and Mining 48 4.8% $89,789 3.7%Wholesale trade 109 1.5% $87,930 4.3%Federal Government 53 -0.3% $84,627 4.8%Manufacturing 149 2.2% $72,647 3.7%State Government 105 3.2% $66,121 2.8%Construction 176 4.2% $63,295 4.2%All Industries 2,704 2.3% $60,341 4.3%Real estate and rental and leasing 53 3.2% $60,267 3.5%Transportation and warehousing 80 7.1% $58,125 3.5%Health care and social assistance 301 1.5% $52,001 3.1%Local Government 265 1.9% $49,223 3.5%Administrative and waste services 160 0.8% $45,413 8.2%Educational services 37 3.0% $42,019 2.7%Other services, except public administration 83 2.6% $41,804 4.1%Arts, entertainment, and recreation 58 2.4% $38,887 4.3%Retail trade 273 0.3% $33,088 3.8%Accommodation and food services 284 1.1% $24,125 6.2%Below Average Total 1,594 1.7% $42,021 4.5%Sources: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
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-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Information
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
Financial Activity
Construction
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands of Jobs
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Colorado Jobs Added by Industry – December 2019 YoY
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-50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650
Natural Resources and Mining
Information
Other Services
Trade; Transportation; and Utilities
Government
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Thousands of Jobs
Source: Moody’s Analytics.
National Jobs Added by Industry – 2019
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-150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550
Manufacturing
Natural Resources and Mining
Information
Other Services
Financial Activities
Construction
Trade; Transportation; and Utilities
Government
Professional and Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Thousands of Jobs
National Jobs Added by Industry – 2020
Source: Moody’s Analytics.
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-1,200 -700 -200 300 800 1,300 1,800
Manufacturing
Information
Natural Resources and Mining
Other Services
Trade; Transportation; and Utilities
Financial Activities
Construction
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands of Jobs
National Jobs Added by Industry – Total 2020 through 2025
Source: Moody’s Analytics.
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Industry Location QuotientsColorado compared to the U.S., 2018 Annual
Min
ing
Info
rmat
ion
Pro
fess
ion
al
Art
s an
d E
nt.
Con
stru
ctio
n
Rea
l Est
ate
Acc
omm
. an
d F
ood
Gov
ern
men
t
Fin
ance
Wh
oles
ale
Oth
er
Man
agem
ent
of
Com
pan
ies
Ret
ail
Ad
min
an
d W
aste
Hea
lth
care
Tra
nsp
orta
tion
an
d
War
ehou
se
Uti
liti
es
Agr
icu
ltu
re
Ed
uca
tion
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
0
1
2
3
Loca
tion
Quo
tien
t
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Potential HeadwindsInternational/National• Global growth
• Value of the dollar
• Trade/tariffs
• Election year
State and Local• Talent shortage
• Housing affordability
• Commodity prices/cycle
• Drought and weather
• Real wage increases