सुद्रढ, सशक्त, एवम ्सम्पन्नभारतननमााणIndia

Making of Growth Path 2014- 2029

Gyanendraa K SharmaMumbaigks04910@gmail.com

April 26, 2014

Growth of economy and stakeholders at reasonable inflation level

and Ensure Stable & Strong Government

Objective

Growth Plan - IndiaMaking 2014 - 2029

Three Tier Action Plan : Immediate , Mid Term (02-03 years) and Long Term

Sustainable Growth & Development of Economy & the Society at large :

Inclusive growth & development of economy and all sections of the society at large, leading to improved living standard

• Long term Stability of Strong Government (About 15 years)

• to achieve social and government targets of growth & development of all

• Dovetailed / close coordination between Government and political organization / cadres to communicate with the society

• Central Government and StateGovernment having aligned government goals and political intents.

• Strong and crystal clear leadership

Government ObjectivesEnabling Needs / Wants – Political

Support and concurrent actions

Growth Plan- India

1. Reduce Inflation

• India- a Net import based economy• Efforts to strengthen rupee against

US$• In tern strong rupee will lead

reduction in cost of living (inflation) and subsidy burden and fiscal account deficit

• Improved credit ratings of India , which will lead to further inflow of FI / FDI

2. Empowerment of the Farmers and people engaged in Agriculture based activities (farming, fisheries, animal husbandry, Dairy, poultry etc.) :

Three Tier Action Plan : Immediate

Set right policies to• Reduce balance of payment (BoP)

deficit› Reduce Import bill› Create environment for FI / FDI› Review tax rules / policies for attract

international investors› Promote Tourism – specific focus on

foreign business tourism and then leisure tourism

• Cater to geopolitics of (Mid Term 02-03 • Economic Interdependence• Energy (Mid Term 02-03 Years).

Government and Political Organization / Cadres to work in tandem and focus on states due for assembly election in 2014 (with large number of Loksabha seats)

Government Objectives Action Plan : Immediate (06 months)

Growth Plan- India

Empowerment of the Farmers and people engaged in Agriculture based activities Contd..

• Scientific methods of right agricultural produce and their production techniques

• Education and knowledge on mechanized / more efficient techniques for farming, fisheries, animal husbandry, dairy, poultry and other related fields)

• Scientific record keeping of Agriproducts on real time basis

• Agri produce processing (mid term 02-03 Years)

Three Tier Action Plan : Immediate Contd..

Government and Political Organization / Cadres to work in tandem Contd..

• Largely for success of Central Government policies

• Alignment of objectives of Central & State Governments

• Maharashtra (48) , Haryana (10) : proximity to Delhi and Agri based society

• Largely masses engaged in Agriculture & related activities

• Agriculture ministry : crucial link• Agriculture ministry & political

Cadres to engage directly with masses to convey the intent of Government to take care of their interests

Government Objectives Action Plan : Immediate (06 months)

Growth Plan- India

1. Expeditious development of infrastructure • Impetus on Infrastructure

development• In turn creation of employment

and resultant betterment of living standards of people

• Manage Fiscal Account deficit to reasonable levels

2. Focused Mid term reforms in • Agriculture & related sector

and its supply chain• Energy : Power, Petroleum etc.• Other infrastructures sector

where reforms can be visible and improve living of masses

Three Tier Action Plan : Mid Term - 02-03 Years & 05 years

• First 02-03 Years of First 05 year: • Reduced (i) BoP deficit,

(ii)inflation, (iii) subsidy burden will result into availability of funds for infrastructure

• Get in to heart of people • Government and Political outfit

to keep masses engaged with their good intent

• 05 Years (2014-2019)• Visible results of short term

measures, infrastructure development and communication to masses

• Expedite Urban Area Infrastructure - Mass support

Action Plan : Mid TermGovernment Objectives

Growth Plan- India

3. Mid term reforms

• Higher education– Competent, young energetic , research oriented minds / human resource would be key for expeditious growth of world class infrastructure and Strong Economy

• Health & Family Welfare: Efficient and effective model for primary health care in Rural and semi Urban areas

• Accountable Primary Education System – close monitoring and control

Three Tier Action Plan : Mid Term – 05 Years ( Focus 2019 General election)

First 05 year: (2014-2019): Effective Communication of Intent and efforts of the Government to intended beneficiaries will be key

• Govt. Develop concrete & practical plan

• Govt. and Political cadre to engage constructively with college going tech savvy young generation, who is now opinion maker at home and society.

• Health care of kids (till 05 years) and old age 55+ years in rural / semi urban areas

Government Machinery to plan and execute reforms efficiently and Political cadre to garner support for such efforts of Government- Continuous seamless action

Action Plan Mid Term (05 Years)Government Objectives

Growth Plan- India

4. International Trade & Relations

Geopolitics of • Economic Interdependence

• Balanced Portfolio of international trade

• Suppliers of crucial item• Buyers of Indian goods and services

•Crucial balance of economic and trade relations with USA and Russia – for Energy and Military purchases•Considering Economic slowdown in

Europe, civil disturbance in middle east, China & USA relations, India a natural trade ally of USA : Ready market for luxury as well as mass Goods of USA• Export of Goods & services to USA• African Subcontinent – can be crucial for stronger Indian Economy

Three Tier Action Plan : Mid Term – 05 Years (International Trade & Relations)

• Strained relations : Russia and European countries - Find ray of hope for India

• USA : Trying to rescue European allies from over dependence on Russia for Oil & Gas supplies

• USA’s Sanctions on Russia and export of USA’s LNG to Europe : May be detrimental for Russian economy

• Russia with strained economy may offer olive branch to its allies e.g. China and neutral countries like India

• India to strike a balance : (i) Too close China and Russia – not favorable for India (ii) India may extract benefit to the best possible and create a win – win for Indian Economy as well as for Russia

Action Plan Mid Term (05 Years)Government Objectives

Growth Plan- India

4. International Trade & Relations contd..

Geopolitics of • Economic Interdependence

• Go Africa subcontinent : • Export of Manufactured Goods,

finished Petroleum & other products, Processed food & Agriproducts and Services.

• Import of Oil & Gas • Energy

• Energy backbone & measure of economic growth

• More than 70% crude oil imported• India need to have balanced portfolio

of Oil & Gas Supplies for strategic as well as economic reasons

• Going forward imported Gas share to rise substantially

Three Tier Action Plan : Mid Term – 05 Years (International Trade & Relations)

• African subcontinent • Will be helpful in balancing Energy

supply portfolio of India• Goods & services – affordability matters

: reasonably good quality• Check mate to aggressive economic

moves of China in African subcontinent to extract benefits out of it

• Energy diplomacy • Venezuela (largest oil reserves) and

Canada- can play big role in supply portfolio as USA has gone surplus

• India : Accelerate Gas based Energy imports instead of Crude based (i) Gas for same energy imports offers @ 27 %-30 % Forex saving (ii) Cleaner Energy & Fulfillment of International commitments (iii) Turn refining assets for earning Forex by export of products

Action Plan Mid Term (05 Years)Government Objectives

Growth Plan- India

5. Long term Infrastructure development(Conceptualize & Planning)

• Interconnection of Rivers – to tackle droughts and floods in different parts of country

• Growth of Agriculture sector• Prevention of natural disasters

and reduction of load on Government expenditure and economy to rebuild areas struck by such disasters

• Revival of Golden Quadrilateral

• Develop dedicated speedy Rail corridors for goods to reduce Good transport by road and reduced crude oil import, Forex saving, induce growth of Indian economy

Three Tier Action Plan : Mid Term – 05 Years ( Focus 2019 general election)

First 05 year: (2014-2019)

• Develop concrete world class plan• Technical feasibility• Robust Revenue / expenditure

plan

• Engage with masses and communicate through Political cadres and Government Authorities about development blueprint of Government

• Political cadres to educate masses about how important the political continuity with clear mandate is for long term good for them and their next generations.

Action Plan Mid Term (05 Years)Government Objectives

Growth Plan- India

5. Long term Infrastructure development (Conceptualize & Planning) Contd..

• Development across existing and upcoming Rail network for – telecom, overhead /underground road, power cables etc.

• Development of huge and rich coastal line

• Develop World class ports - offer services and trade facilities e.g.

• Offer International Warehousing, Ship maintenance and fuelling services

• Potential of earning huge Forexby export of Fish and other fresh Agri products

Three Tier Action Plan : Mid Term – 05 Years ( Focus 2019 general election)

First 05 year: (2014-2019)

• Acquire world class fast infrastructure development technologies

• First hand Communication & engagement with Masses will hold key for • Success of efforts of Government • Must to have long term continuity of

strong Government for continued focus on growth plans

• Must for general elections 2019 and 2024

• Hope of improvement of living standards of communities in southern coastal belt can lead to huge political inroads in these states

Action Plan Mid Term (05 Years)Government Objectives

Growth Plan- India

Long term Infrastructure development

On ground action for such long term infrastructure projects changing the face of India for forever

• Interconnection of Rivers

• Revival of Golden Quadrilateral

• Develop dedicated speedy Rail corridors for goods

• Development across Rail network for –telecom, overhead /underground road, power cables etc.

• Development of huge and rich coastal line

• Develop World class ports and related infrastructure

Three Tier Action Plan : Long Term (2019 and 2024 General Election) 05 to 15 years

Second 05 year term : (2019-2024)

• Enact enabling laws

• Manage funding for such infrastructure creation

• Efficient Fiscal management to counter chances of high inflation and its vicious circle

• Acquisition of land through minimum coercion

• Government and Political cadre to engage with masses for development & larger good of masses and their future generations to make India self sustainable economy

• Expedite few projects as showcase and let the result of such projects speak for itself for General Elections in 2024 (For Third term 2024 -2029).

Action Plan : Long Term (05-15 Years)Government Objectives

Growth Plan- India

• Immediate :

• Target states due for state assembly polls in 2014 and early 2015

• Maharashtra (Dec. 2014), Haryana (Oct. 2014) , Jharkhand (Jan. 2015),

Jammu & Kashmir (Jan. 2015) and Delhi (Elections may be recommended

in Oct. 2014 or Dec. 2014 )

Political Actions : Crucial for Long Term Stay in Government & Make India a Developed Economy

As soon as Possible: Build strongpolitical organization and strong bondwith masses in the state having largenumber of Parliamentary seats andsouthern states (even if Loksabha seatsare smaller in numbers).

• UP (80, May 2017)

• Bihar (40, Nov. 2015)

• Maharashtra (48, Dec. 2014)

• West Bengal (42, May 2016)

• Tamil Nadu (39, May 2016)

• Kerala (20, May 2016)

Apart from well-known crucial ministries of:

1. Agriculture Ministry: Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Dairying, Fisheries, Poultry etc

2. Tourism Ministry

• Home Ministry

• Finance Ministry

• Defense ministry

• External Affairs

• Petroleum & Natural Gas

• Trade / Commerce

Very crucial ministries from political point of view to ensure long term stable Central Government and get the State Government Control:

Crucial Ministries from Governmentas well as Political point of view

Growth oriented Government point of view : Ministry of Environment & Forest : may be kept with leading partner only

Agriculture Ministry: Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Dairying, Fisheries, Poultry etc

Agriculture Minister and State Minister immediately convey the intent of Government and their political outfit to farmers directly in Farmer Shabhas etc in the state going for assembly election

Develop scientific methods for real time online data keeping with a maximum delay of 01 week

Pass on mechanized more scientific and efficient techniques

Political & Government Importance: Agricultural Ministry

• Biggest chunk of masses involved in Agri based

economy (i.e. Farming, Fisheries, Animal Husbandry,

Poultry etc.)

• For inclusive growth of economy, their upliftment is

very crucial.

• Political stability for long term, i.e. 10-15 years is

needed and,

• Empowerment and living standard of these masses will

ensure political strengths desired for formation of

central and state governments.

Create International Tourism friendly environment.

Project tourist friendly image : Rich culture and diverse nature andhospitality.

Focus on emotional need of foreign tourist, specially from developedworld.

Considering pets being an integral part of emotional support indeveloped world- Align the policies for tourists with their pets.

Specific attention on business tourism in India.

Apart from Forex inflow, tourism makes way for FDI / FI

Large level Employment creation and involvement of local people indevelopment

2. Tourism Ministry:

Snapshot : Summary

Achieve Growth

1. Policy Framework:Reduce Balance of Payment Deficit (Reduce Current & Capital account deficit)

• Attract FI/FDI in identified sectors; keeping political stability here inIndia at heart to appreciate Rupee

• Strong Rupee in turn will• reduce (i) import bills (ii) inflation and (iii) Fiscal Account

deficit (reduction in subsidy burden),• (iv) improved credit ratings of India – in turn will attract more

FI / FDI ( improved confidence in Indian Economy)• (v) reduced subsidy burden will lead to availability of funds for

Infrastructure projects and creation of employment andreduction of Government spending on free lunches (GuaranteedEmployment etc.)

• (vi) Surplus income - improved spending capacity- lead toindustrial growth

• Clarity in Tax rules and reforms for International Investors –To ward off fear in international investors created by Vodafone,Nokia, Shell episode

Snapshot : Summary Contd..

Achieve Growth

2. Pro tourism environment and policies taking care of emotional needs of

developed world. Which intern should be targeted for business tourism and

positive sentiments for FI / FDI

3. Reforms in Agricultural and related sectors – reap political advantage by proper

engagement and communication with masses

4. Balanced but firm International policies to reap optimum fruits of International

Trade and strategic relations

5. Balanced portfolio of Energy Suppliers – with a focus on Gas / LNG imports

(efficient, economic (27% to 30% Forex savings for import of same quantum of

Energy) and environment friendly source of Energy as compared to Crude oil

and to fullfill International Commitments (KYOTO – Protocol – India to

Achieve committed pollution reduction targets by 2020.

6. Export of services : Offer refining and other services to the world.

7. Expedite (i) mid term Infrastructure growth, (ii) reforms in Energy, Education,

Health & Family Welfare,

8. Develop Concrete Plan for Long Term Infrastructure development and establish

fruitful continuous Communication with masses .

Meeting General expectations of Common Men

Create Environment of Belonging for all

• Bring North East states in main stream• Initiate dialogue with Naxals and other misled masses to bring

them in main stream development• Initiate actions for reforms engaging all stakeholders and

beneficiaries• Education for all• Timely Justice for all• Health & Family welfare• Crime including economic offence & criminal activities are

dealt sternly• Fair practices promoted and unfair means & practices (any

sort of corruption – economic or moral) are strongly de-motivated and message given loud and clear for benefit ofSociety

• Culture of Good Governance to percolate everywhere at alllevels

About the Author

Gyanendraa K Sharma is Gold medalist Mechanical Engineer from reputed NIT, MBA (Marketing) and Gold medalist in PGDPM-X (Oil & Gas)

He is having extensive 17 years of techno commercial Industry experience in Energy (Oil & Gas Sector) in Government and Private Sector in India and presently work as a General Manager in a leading private sector Oil & Gas organization in Mumbai, India.

He is having widespread interests in national level policy formulation , Socio-economic analysis of Government policy decisions, importance of Geopolitics of Economic interdependence (Trade and Energy).

He can be reached at his email id : gks04910@gmail.com

Thanks

Jai Hind - Jai Bharat

Lets us join hands to make India abetter place for everyone, everyday living in it or doing business ofmutual benefits with it.

Gyanendraa K SharmaMumbaigks04910@gmail.com