1

Growth and Performance of Indian Agriculture and its Future Challenges

MOHIT KUMAR 2015A04M

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Outline of the presentation

• Introduction• Importance of Agriculture in Indian Economy• Factors affecting growth of Indian agriculture • Growth in area, production and productivity • Stock of Food grains in central pool • Trends in import and export of agricultural products• Agriculture & National GDP• Different revolutions related to Agriculture • Future challenges to agriculture sector in India • Suggestions to overcome future challenges • Conclusion• References

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Everything can wait but agriculture can’t.

Jawaharlal Nehru

The momentum of growth of a developing economy resides solely on it’s Agriculture sector.

Dr. D.Subba Rao ( Former RBI Governor)

• In the beginning of eighteenth century(1723) Angus Madison British economic historian describe India as one of the richest country in the world and constitute about 23 per cent of global GDP.

• We had been reduced to(1947) One of the poorest Most backward 16% literacy rate Economic growth less than 1% Particularly no domestic industry 90% BPL

Pax Indica2012 , Sashi Tharur

INTRODUCTION

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TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURE MODERN AGRICULTURE

LESSER PRODUCTION & PRODUCTIVITY

HIGHER PRODUCTION & PRODUCTIVITY

STATE OF HUNGER STATE OF FOOD SECURITY

POOR INFRASTRUCTURE HIGHLY DEVELOPED INFRASTRUCTURES

TECHNOLOGICALLY DEPRIVED TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT

LOW PER CAPITA INCOME HIGH PER CAPITA INCOME

LOW STANDARD OF LIVING HIGHER STANDARD OF LIVING

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Importance of Agriculture for India

Account for 18 per cent of human population & 15 per cent of livestock population of world

Population is increasing at an average growth rate of 1.25 per cent per annum

Provides employment to 48.5 percent of total work force Accounts for 14.17 per cent of total national exports Accounts for 3.87 per cent of total national imports Contributes 13.7 per cent towards GDP Growth of economy is closely associated with growth of its

agricultural sector

Source: Agricultural statistics at a glance- 2014, GOI, Yojna June2016

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State of Indian Agriculture

• Total geographical area : 329 Million Hectare• Total cropped area : 198.97 Million hectare• Net cropped area : 141.58 Million hectare• Total irrigated area : 89.36 Million hectare• Net irrigated area : 63.60 Million hectare• Total fertilizer consumption : 255.36 Million Tonnes• Total credit availability : 607.37 Thousand Crore rupee• Gross capital formation : 234.27 Thousand Crore rupee

• Total food grain production : 257.13 Million Tonnes• Total horticultural production : 268.84 Million Tonnes• Total pulse production: 19.27 Million Tonnes• Total Oilseed Production : 32.88 Million Tonnes• Total milk production : 137.7 Million Tonnes

Source: Agricultural statistics at a glance- 2014, GOI

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• Total Indian export : 1634.67 Thousand Crore rupee • Total agricultural export : 230.14 Thousand Crore Rs• Share of agriculture in total export : 14.1%• Share in Total Export earning : 14.7%• Total Indian imports : 2669.83 Thousand Crore rupee • Total agricultural imports : 105.14 Thousand Crore rupee

• Share of agriculture in total imports : 3.87 %• Share of agriculture in nations GDP : 13.7 per cent• Per capita availability of Milk : 290 gm/ day• Per capita availability of food grains : 510.8gm/day• Per capita availability of food pulses : 47.12gm/day

Source: Agricultural statistics at a glance- 2014, GOI

State of Indian Agriculture

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• Achieved Growth rate (11th FYP) :3.64 percent• Target growth rate (12th FYP) :4.0 percent• Global rank in farm outputs :2nd

• First in the production of :Milk, Pulses, Livestock, Jute, Tea and Cauliflower.

• Second in the production of :Wheat, Rice, Fruit, Vegetables, Sugarcane, onion, Groundnut and Tobacco.

• Third in the production of :Tobacco, Cotton• Fourth in the production of :Natural rubber• Seventh in the production of :Coffee

• Major agricultural export product :Rice>Cashew>Wheat>Tea>Tobacoo

• Major agricultural imported products :Vegetable oil>Pulses>Fruit

Sources: Agricultural statistics at a glance- 2014, GOI, A competitive Book of Agriculture, Nem Raj Sunda

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Growth of Agriculture Sector

11

GROWTH IN PRODUCTION

AND PRODUCTIVITY

1.LAND AREA UNDER

CULTIVATION

2.GROWTH IN INPUT USAGE

4.AVAILABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL

CREDIT

9.SUPPORTIVE GOVT. POLICIES &

SCHEMES

3.AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR

6.FAVOURABLE AGRICULTURAL

INFRASTRUCTURE

10. MONSOON

Factors affecting Growth of Agricultural Sector

5. CAPITAL FORMATION IN AGRICULTURE

8. AGRO- PROCESSING &

VALUE ADDITION

7.TECHNOLOGICAL UPGRADATION

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S No Classification 1950-51

1960-61

1970-71 1980-81 1990-

91 2000-01 2010-11 2011-12

1 Total Geographical area 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73

2 Reported Area for Land use statistics (A-E) 284.32 298.46 303.75 304.16 304.86 305.13 305.9 305.81

A). Forest 40.48 54.05 63.83 67.46 67.81 69.74 70.01 70.02

B). Not Available for Agriculture 47.52 50.75 44.61 39.55 40.48 41.23 43.56 43.52

C). Other uncultivated land excluding fallow 49.45 37.64 35.13 32.31 30.22 27.74 26.17 26.29

D). Fallow land 28.12 22.82 19.33 24.55 23.37 25.04 24.59 25.38

E.) Net area sown 118.75 133.2 140.86 140.29 143 141.34 141.58 140.80

3 Area sown more than once 13.15 19.57 24.93 34.63 42.74 44 57.39 54.44

4 Cropping Intensity (%) 111.07 114.69 117.7 123.05 129.89 131.13 139.3.9 138.67

5 Net Irrigated Area 20.85 24.66 31.1 38.72 48.02 55.2 63.6 65.26

6 Gross Irrigated Area 22.56 27.98 38.2 49.78 63.2 76.19 89.36 91.53

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2014(Ministry of Agriculture)

Land Use Pattern & Area under Irrigation in India(Area in Million Hectare)

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Agriculture Land Use Pattern in India

A. Forest14%

B. Not Available for Agri-culture

17%

C. Other unculti-

vated land excluding

fallow17%

D. Fallow land10%

E. Net area sown42%

1950-51

A. Forest21%

B. Not Available

for Agricul-ture18%C. Other

uncultivated land exclud-

ing fallow10%

D. Fallow land8%

E. Net area sown43%

2012-13Source: Pocket Book on Agricultural Statistics, 2015 (Ministry of Agriculture),GOI

1950-51

2012-13

change

Net sown 42 43 +1

Forest area 14 21 +7

Not available for agriculture

17 18 +1

Other uncultivated land excluding fallow

17 10 -7

Fallow 10 8 -2

In percent

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Production & Use of Agricultural Inputs in IndiaS.No. Programmes Unit 2001 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

1 SEEDSA. Production of Breeder seeds 000, QTLs 42.69 118.85 123.38 125B. Production of Foundation seeds Lakh QTLs 5.91 17.53 21.86 22.5

C. Distribution of Certified/ Quality seeds Lakh QTLs 86.27 277.34 294.85 300.1

2 CONSUMPTION OF CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS

A.Nitrogen Lakh Tonnes 109.2 165.58 173 168.21B. Phosphorus Lakh Tonnes 42.15 80.5 79.14 66.53C.Potassium Lakh Tonnes 15.67 35.14 25.26 20.62D. Total (N+P+K) Lakh Tonnes 167.02 281.22 277.4 255.36E. Per hectare Kg 89.63 146.32 144.33 128.34

3 CONSUMPTION OF PESTICIDES 000, QTLs 43.58 55.54 52.98 56.09

Source: Department of Agriculture & Co-operation, New Delhi Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2014(Ministry of Agriculture)

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Year

Consumption (Lakh Tonnes)

Production (Lakh Tonnes)

Import(Lakh Tonnes) Value of

Import( Rs. Crore)N P K Total N P Total N P K Total

1981-82 40.69 13.22 6.73 60.64 31.44 9.49 40.93 10.54 3.43 6.44 20.41 716.62

1985-86 56.61 20.05 8.08 84.74 43.28 14.28 57.56 16.8 8.16 9.03 33.99 1405

1989-90 73.86 30.14 11.68 115.68 67.47 17.96 85.43 5.23 13.11 12.8 31.14 1538.77

1993-94 87.88 26.69 9.09 123.66 72.31 18.16 90.47 15.88 7.22 8.57 31.67 1300.18

1997-98 109 39.14 13.73 161.88 100.9 29.76 130.62 13.62 6.72 11.4 31.74 1296.57

2001-02 113.1 43.82 16.67 173.59 107.7 38.6 146.28 2.59 4.29 17.01 23.99 113.09

2005-06 127.2 52.04 24.13 203.4 113.5 42.21 155.75 13.85 11.21 27.47 52.53 1747.34

2009-10 155.8 72.74 36.32 264.86 119 43.21 162.21 34.47 25.56 29.44 91.47 5754.01

2010-11 165.6 80.5 35.14 281.22 221.6 42.22 263.78 45.64 37.38 38.81 121.8 8348.89

2011-12 173 79.14 25.76 277.91 122.6 41.03 163.61 55.72 42.98 24.98 123.7 15442.02

2012-13 168.2 66.53 20.62 255.36 121.9 35.4 157.34 48.01 27.97 15.59 91.52 15980.22Source: Department of Fertilizers, Ministry of Agriculture

Consumption, Production & Import of Fertilizers in India

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1981-82

1985-86

1989-90

1993-94

1997-98

2001-02

2005-06

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Consumption In Million tonnes NConsumption In Million tonnes PConsumption In Million tonnes KConsumption In Million tonnes TotalLinear (Consumption In Million tonnes Total)

YearConsumption

N P K Total CAGR(%)

1981-82 40.69 13.22 6.73 60.64

1985-86 56.61 20.05 8.08 84.74 8.72

1989-90 73.86 30.14 11.68 115.68 8.09

1993-94 87.88 26.69 9.09 123.66 1.68

1997-98 109 39.14 13.73 161.88 6.96

2001-02 113.1 43.82 16.67 173.59 1.76

2005-06 127.2 52.04 24.13 203.4 4.04

2009-10 155.8 72.74 36.32 264.86 6.8

2010-11 165.6 80.5 35.14 281.22 1.51

2011-12 173 79.14 25.76 277.91 -0.3

2012-13 168.2 66.53 20.62 255.36 -2.09

Source: Department of Fertilizers, Ministry of AgricultureAgricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2014(Ministry of Agriculture)

Trends in Fertilizer consumptionIn million tones

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Availability of Labour force in Agriculture sector in India

Year Total Population

Av. Annual exponential

growth rate (%)

Rural Population

Agricultural workersCAGR

(%)Cultivators Agril. Labours Total

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)=5+6 (8)

1951 361.1 1.25 298.6 69.9(23.40%)*

27.3(9.14%) 97.2

1961 439.2 1.96 360.3 99.6(27.64%)

31.5(8.74%) 131.1 3.03

1971 548.2 2.2 439 78.2(17.81%)

47.5(10.82%) 125.7 -0.42

1981 683.3 2.22 525.6 92.5(17.59%)

55.5(10.55%) 148 1.64

1991 846.4 2.16 630.6 110.7(17.56%)

74.6(11.83%) 185.3 2.27

2001 1028.7 1.96 742.6 127.3(17.14%)

106.8(14.38%) 234.1 2.36

2011 1210.6 1.64 833.5 118.7(14.24%)

144.3(17.31%) 263 1.17

* - Percent in parentheses represents percent of rural populationSource: Registrar General of India

(In Million)

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Flow of Institutional Credit to Agricultural sectorAgency 1990-

912000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

20004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

ST Credit

Co-operatives 14.771 16.528 18.787 19.668 22.640 27.157 34.390 38.622 40.515 40.230 56.946 69.038 81.829 102.592RRB 2.423 3.245 3.777 4.775 6.088 10.010 12.712 16.631 20.715 22.413 29.802 38.121 47.401 55.957Commercial Banks 11.697 13.486 17.904 21.104 26.192 36.793 57.640 83.202 122.289 147.818 189.908 NA 266.928 314.951

Other 0.074 0.055 0.041 0.039 0.057 0.104 0.068 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub- Total (A) 28.965 33.314 40.509 45.586 54.977 74.064 105.350 138.455 183.519 210.461 226.658 107.159 396.158 473.500

CAGR (%) 1.40 21.59 12.53 20.60 34.71 42.24 31.42 32.54 14.68 7.69 -52.72 269.69 19.52

MT/LT Credit

Co-operatives 3.489 4.190 4.737 3.968 4.235 4.074 4.474 3.858 3.169 5.962 6.551 9.083 6.134 8.611RRB 0.749 0.974 1.077 1.295 1.493 2.394 2.511 3.804 4.099 4.352 5.415 6.172 7.049 7.724Commercial Banks 13.036 14.321 15.683 18.670 26.249 44.688 67.837 83.283 58.798 81.133 95.892 NA 101.688 117.540

Other 0.029 0.028 0.039 0.041 0.027 0.089 0.314 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub- Total (B) 17.303 19.513 21.536 23.974 32.004 51.245 75.136 90.945 66.066 91.447 107.858 15.255 114.871 133.875ST+MT/LT CreditCo-operatives 18.260 20.718 23.524 23.636 26.875 31.231 39.404 42.480 48.258 46.192 63.497 78.121 87.963 111.203RRB 3.172 4.219 4.854 6.070 7.581 12.404 15.223 20.435 25.312 26.765 35.217 44.293 54.450 63.681Commercial Banks 24.733 27.807 33.587 39.774 52.441 81.481 125.477 166.485 181.088 228.951 285.800 345.877 368.616 432.491

Other 0.103 0.083 0.080 0.080 0.084 0.193 0.382 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total (A+B) 46.268 52.827 62.045 62.045 86.981 125.309 180.486 229.400 254.658 301.908 384.514 468.291 511.029 607.375

CAGR (%) 1.33 17.44 18.12 40.19 44.06 44.03 27.10 11.01 18.55 27.36 21.78 9.12 18.85

(Rs. In 000, Crore)

Source: Deptt. of Agriculture & Co-operation, Credit Division

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39%

7%

53%

0%Co-operativesRRBCommercial BanksOther

18%

10%

71%

2012-13

Co-operativesRRBCommercial BanksOther

Source: Deptt. of Agriculture & Co-operation, Credit DivisionAvailability of Labour force in Agriculture sector in India

Share of different institutional agencies in Agricultural credit

1990-91

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Gross Capital Formation in Agriculture & Allied Sector

YearGCF in Agricultural & allied sector

Public Private Total CAGR (%)

2004-05 16187(6.7)

59909(7.8)

76096(7.5) --

2005-06 20739(7.1)

69204(7.4)

89943(7.3) 18.19

2006-07 25606(7.2)

75496(6.7)

101102(6.8) 12.40

2007-08 27638(6.3)

95679(6.8)

123317(6.7) 21.97

2008-09 26692(5.0)

133655(9.6)

160347(8.3) 30.02

2009-10 33201(5.6)

151325(9.2)

184526(8.3) 15.07

2010-11 32073(4.9)

161513(7.8)

193586(7.1) 4.90

2011-12 38514(5.3)

195756(8.8)

234270(8.0) 21.01

2012-1345511(5.5)

232328(9.6)

277839(8.6) 15.6

Figures in parenthesis indicates share in percentage.Source: Central Statistic Office, New Delhi

(Rs. In Crore)

At current price

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Performance of SW Monsoon during 1990-2013

Year

No. of Meteorological

subdivisions with Excess/ Normal

Rainfall

No. of Meteorological

subdivisions with Deficient/ Scanty

Rainfall

% of districts with excess/ Normal Rainfall

Actual Rainfall as % of Normal Rainfall (All India)

1990 32 3 88 1191991 27 8 68 912001 30 5 68 922010 31 5 69 1022011 33 3 76 1012012 23 13 58 922013 30 6 72 106

(1st June – 30th September)

Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Co-operation

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Growth in Area, Production & Productivity of food grain

Year

Area(Million Hectare)

CAGR(%)

Production(Million Tonnes)

CAGR(%) Productivity

(Qtl/hectare)

CAGR(%)

1950-51 97.32 50.82 52.21955-56 110.56 2.58 66.85 5.63 60.5 2.991960-61 115.58 0.89 76.67 2.77 66.2 1.811965-66 115.1 -0.08 72.35 -1.15 62.9 -1.011970-71 124.32 1.55 108.42 8.42 87.2 6.751975-76 128.18 0.61 121.03 2.22 94.4 1.591980-81 126.67 -0.23 129.59 1.37 102.3 1.621985-86 128.02 0.21 150.44 3.02 117.5 2.801990-91 127.84 -0.02 176.39 3.23 138 3.261995-96 121.02 -1.09 180.42 0.45 149.1 1.552000-01 121.05 0.001 196.81 1.75 162.6 1.742005-06 121.6 0.09 208.6 1.17 171.5 1.072010-11 126.67 0.82 244.5 3.22 193 2.392011-12 124.75 -1.51 259.29 6.04 207.8 7.662012-13 120.16 -3.67 255.36 -1.51 212.5 2.26

Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Dept. of Agriculture & Co-operation

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Trends in Production & Productivity of major agricultural crops

S.No. CROPS 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-141 FOOD

GRAINS50.82 82.02 108.42 129.59 176.39 196.81 244.29 259.29 257.13 264.77

  Rice 20.85(668)

34.58(1018)

42.22(1123)

53.63(1336)

74.29(1740)

84.98(1901)

95.98(2239)

105.3(2393)

105.24(2462)

106.54

  Wheat 6.46(663)

11(851)

23.83(1307)

36.31(1630)

55.14(2281)

69.68(2708)

86.87(2988)

94.88(3177)

93.51(3118)

95.91

  Maize 1.73 4.08 7.49 6.96 8.96 12.04 21.73 21.76 22.26 24.35  Coarse Cereals 15.38 23.74 30.55 29.02 32.7 31.08 43.4 42.01 42.5 43.052 PULSES 8.41

(441)12.7(539)

11.82(524)

10.63(473)

14.26(549)

11.08(544)

18.24(630)

17.09(691)

18.34(699)

19.27(NA)

  Gram 3.65 6.25 5.2 4.33 5.36 3.86 8.22 7.7 8.83 9.88  Arhar (Tur) 1.72 2.07 1.88 1.96 2.41 2.25 2.86 2.65 3.02 3.29  Lentil  NA NA  0.37 0.47 0.85 0.92 0.94 0.51  NA NA 

3 OILSEEDS 5.16(481)

6.98(507)

9.63(579)

9.37(532)

18.61(771)

18.44(810)

32.48(1193)

29.8(1133)

30.94(1169)

32.41(NA)

  Groundnut 3.48 4.81 6.11 5.01 7.51 6.41 8.26 6.96 4.69 7.47

  Rapeseed & Mustard 0.76 1.35 1.98 2.3 5.23 4.19 8.18 6.6 8.02 7.82

  Soybean  NA  NA 0.01 0.94 2.6 5.28 12.74 12.21 14.66 11.94  Sunflower  NA NA  0.08 0.07 0.87 0.65 0.65 0.52 0.54 0.54

Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of agriculture, GOI

(Production in MT)(Production of cotton in Million Bales ,170 Kg each)

(Productivity in Kg/ha)(Productivity of Sugarcane in 000,Kg/ ha)

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S.No. CROPS 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

4 COTTON 3.04(88)

5.6(125)

4.76(106)

7.01(152)

9.84(225)

9.52(190)

33(499)

35.2(491)

34.2(482)

36.5(NA)

5 JUTE & MESTA

3.31(1043)

5.26(1104)

6.19(1032)

8.16(1130)

9.23(1634)

10.56(1888)

10.62(2192)

11.4(2283)

10.93(2338)

11.4(NA)

6 SUGARCANE 57.05(33.42)*

110(45.54)

126.37(48.32)

154.25(57.84)

241.05(65.39)

295.96(68.57)

342.38(70.09)

361.04(71.66)

341.2(66.98)

348.38(NA)

7 TOBACCO 0.26(731)

0.31(766)

0.36(810)

0.48(1065)

0.56(1353)

0.34(1318)

0.88(1794)

0.82(1772) NA  NA 

Trends in Production & Productivity of major agricultural crops

(Production in MT)(Production of cotton in Million Bales ,170 Kg each)

(Productivity in Kg/ha)(Productivity of Sugarcane in 000,Kg/ ha)

Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of agriculture, GOI

25

Year Area(000, Ha)

CAGR (%)

Production(000, Metric T)

CAGR (%)

Productivity(Metric T/ha)

CAGR (%)

1991 12770 96562 7.562001 16592 2.65 145785 4.21 8.79 1.512002 16270 -1.94 144380 -0.96 8.87 1.002003 19208 18.06 153302 6.18 7.98 -10.062004 18445 -3.97 166939 8.90 9.05 13.402005 18707 1.42 182816 9.51 9.77 7.982006 19389 3.65 191813 4.92 9.89 1.232007 20207 4.22 211235 10.13 10.45 5.672008 20662 2.25 214716 1.65 10.39 -0.592009 20876 1.04 223089 3.90 10.69 2.832010 21825 4.55 240531 7.82 11.02 3.132011 23242 6.49 257277 6.96 11.07 0.442012 23694 1.94 268847 4.50 11.35 2.50

Trends in Area, Production & Productivity of Horticultural crops

Source: Director of Horticulture/Agriculture of respective State/UT’s

26

Trends in all India Production of Milk, Eggs, Wool & Fish

Year Milk(Million Tonnes)

Eggs(Billion Nos.)

Wool( Million Kg)

Fish(000, Tonnes)

1985-86 44 16.1 39.1 2876

1990-91 53.9 21.1 41.2 3836

1995-96 66.2 27.2 42.4 4949

2000-01 80.6 36.6 48.4 5656

2005-06 97.1 46.2 44.9 6572

2010-11 121.8 63 43 8231

2011-12 127.9 66.5 44.7 8666

2012-13 132.4 69.7 46.1 9019

Source: Dept. of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture

27

Performance of Agriculture Sector

28

Stock of Food grains in Central Pool

Years Rice Wheat Coarse Cereals Total1991 9.63 9.38 0.12 19.132001 20.27 25.04 0.03 45.772011 25.58 21.54 0.1 47.222012 29.72 25.67 0.1 55.492013 32.22 34.88 0.09 66.692014 14.70 25.08 0.38 43.12

( In Million Tonnes,)(As per Jan 1st)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution, Government of India

29

Trends in Import & Export of Agricultural products

Year AgriculturalImports (AI)

CAGR(%)

% of AIto

TNI

AgriculturalExports (AE)

CAGR(%)

% of AEto

TNE

1990-91 1.20 2.79 6.01 18.49

1991-92 1.47 22.59 3.09 7.83 30.35 17.8

1992-93 2.87 94.56 4.54 9.04 15.33 16.84

1993-94 2.32 -19.08 3.18 12.58 39.22 18.05

1994-95 5.93 55.10 6.6 13.22 5.05 15.99

1997-98 8.78 32.84 5.7 24.83 2.77 19.09

1998-99 14.56 65.82 8.12 25.51 2.73 18.25

1999-00 16.06 10.29 7.45 25.31 -0.77 15.91

2000-01 12.08 -24.77 5.29 28.65 13.20 14.23

2004-05 22.81 3.81 4.55 41.60 14.24 11.08

2005-06 21.49 -05.75 3.26 49.21 18.30 10.79

2006-07 29.63 37.85 3.53 62.14 26.26 10.88

2007-08 29.90 0.90 2.95 79.03 27.19 12.05

2008-09 37.18 24.33 2.71 85.55 8.23 10.18

2009-10 59.52 60.09 4.37 89.34 4.42 10.57

2010-11 57.33 -3.68 3.41 117.48 31.49 10.28

2011-12 82.81 44.44 3.53 187.60 59.68 12.8

2012-13 109.21 31.86 4.09 230.14 22.67 14.1

(Value in Rs. 000,Crore)

Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics, Ministry of Commerce

30

Trends in Agricultural Imports/ Exports and Shareout of Total National Imports/ Exports

Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics, Ministry of Commerce

31

GDP by Economic activities at current Price

S.No. Sectors 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

1Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

565.42 637.77 722.98 836.51 943.20 1083.51 1306.94 1466.75 1644.83

2 Industrial Sector

829.78 953.87 1140.19 1330.27 1500.25 1695.79 2003.30 2233.18 2436.50

3 Service Sector

1576.25 1798.85 2090.09 2415.29 2860.10 3329.59 3956.72 4654.55 5379.67

4GDP at Factor Cost (1+2+3)

2971.46 3390.50 3953.27 4582.08 5303.56 6108.90 7266.96 8353.49 9481.01

(Rs. In 000,Crore)

Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation.

32

Percent Growth of GDP at 2004-05 PriceS.No. Sectors 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

1Agricultural, Forestry &

Fishing5.1 4.2 5.8 0.1 0.8 7.9 3.6 1.9

2 Industrial Sector 9.7 12.2 9.7 4.4 9.2 9.2 3.5 2.13 Service Sector 10.9 10.1 10.3 10 10.5 9.8 8.2 7.1

4 GDP at Factor Cost 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.7 8.6 9.3 6.2 5

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-130

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

f(x) = − 0.219047619047619 x + 4.66071428571429R² = 0.0412324929971989

Percent growth of GDP at 2004-05 Price

Agricultural, Forestry & FishingLinear (Agricultural, Forestry & Fishing)Industrial SectorService SectorGDP at Factor Cost

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

)

Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation.

33

Percent share of GDP at factor cost at 2004-05 PriceS.No. Sectors 1950-51 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-122012-13

1 Agricultural, Forestry & Fishing 51.9 18.3 17.4 16.8 15.8 14.6 14.5 14.1 13.7

2 Industrial Sector 16.2 28 28.7 28.7 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.5 26.73 Service Sector 31.9 53.7 54 54.4 56.1 57.1 57.3 58.4 59.6

4 GDP at Factor Cost 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Agricul-tural,

Forestry & Fishing

52%

Industrial Sector16%

Service Sector32%

1950-51

Agricultural, Forestry &

Fishing14%

Industrial Sector27%

Service Sec-tor

60%

2012-13Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation.

34

Projected Demand & Supply of Food grains for 12th FYP

S . No. Crop/ Group of Crops Projected Demand2016-17

Projected Supply2016-17

Actual production2013-14*

1 Rice 110 98-106 106.54

2 Wheat 89 93-104 95.91

3 Maize 19 NA 24.35

4 Coarse Cereals 36 42-48 43.05

5 Cereals 235 240-251 245.5

6 Pulse 22 18-21 19.27

7 Food Grains 257 258-272 264.77

8 Oilseed/ Edible Oils 59 33-41 32.87

9 Sugarcane/ Sugar 279 365-441 350.02

( Figures in In MT)

Source: Planning Commission (NITI Aayog 1.1.2015), GOI

35

(kg Per Year)Year Rice Wheat Other

cerealsCereals Gram Pulses Food

grain1951 58.0 24.0 40.0 122.0 8.2 22.1 144.1

1961 73.4 28.9 43.6 145.9 11.0 25.2 171.1

1971 70.3 37.8 44.3 152.4 7.3 18.7 171.1

1981 72.2 47.3 32.8 152.3 4.9 13.7 166.0

1991 80.9 60.0 29.2 171.0 4.9 15.2 186.2

2001 69.5 49.6 20.5 141.0 2.9 10.9 151.9

2011 66.3 59.7 23.9 149.9 5.3 15.7 165.6

2012 69.4 57.8 21.9 149.1 4.9 15.2 164.3

2013 58.3 53.2 19.2 130.7 5.6 15.8 146.5

2014 72.6 66.8 22.6 162.1 6.0 17.2 179.3

Per-Capita Net Availability of Food grains in India

Source: Pocket Book on Agricultural Statistics, 2015 (Ministry of Agriculture),GOI

36

Different Revolutions Related to Agriculture

S. No. Revolutions Areas1. Blue Revolution Fisheries Production2. Brown Revolution Leather Production3. Green Revolution Food grains Production4. Pink Revolution Shrimp Production5. Silver Revolution Egg/Poultry Production6. White Revolution Dairy Development7. Yellow Revolution Oil Seed Production8. Golden Fiber Revolution Jute Production9. Golden Revolution Horticulture Production10. Grey Revolution Fertilizer / Wool Production11. Red Revolution Meat & Tomato Production 12. Round Revolution Potato Production13. Silver Fiber Revolution Cotton Production14. Evergreen Revolution Over all Agriculture Development15. Digital Revolution* Information & Communication Technology

37

Future Challenges to the Agricultural sector

38

Future Challenges to Agricultural Sector

• Population’s Annual exponential growth rate : 1.25% pa• Food grain production’s Annual exp. growth rate : -1.51%

S. No. Crops Projected Demand2016-17

Projected Supply2016-17

01 Rice 110 98-10602 Pulses 22 18-2103 Edible oils 59 33-41

1) To increase the Production of Food

grains

2) To give more emphasis on the production of Paddy, Pulses & Oilseeds

Projected Demand & Supply of Food grains for 12th FYP

Source: Planning Commission (NITI Aayog 1.1.2015),GOI

39

Area, Production and Yield of Principal Crops in various Countries

S.No. Crop Area(000,Ha)

Global Position in Area

Production(000, Tonnes)

Productivity(Kg/Ha)

Productivity followed by

01 Paddy 42500 First 152600 3591 China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, USA, Egypt, Srilanka

02 Wheat 29900 First 94880 3173 China, France, Germany, Egypt, UK

03 Maize 8400 Sixth 21060 2507 USA, China, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, France, Germany, Egypt

04 Sugarcane 5090 Second 347870 68344 Brazil, China, Columbia, Egypt, Peru, Mauritius

05 Groundnut 4900 First 5779 1179 USA, China, Argentina, Vietnam

Source: FAO, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok.

3) To increase the productivity of principal crops

Average size of land holding is decliningNo of operational holding increasing

4) Promote cooperative farming

40

India incurs post harvest losses of worth Rs. 2 trillions of fruits and vegetable wastage annually. (Economic Times, Sept.1,2014)

Value addition in food in India is only seven percent as against 23% in China, 45% in Philippines and 168% in U.K. ( Agricultural Marketing in India- Acharya & Agarwal)

5) To minimize loss - strengthen the Agro- processing & Cold storage.

Japan has rejected more than ten consignments of Shrimps exported from India ( August, 2012)USA had rejected Indian Mango Consignments in past- Stone weevil Russia has warned of stringent action, including a ban on import of potatoes from India, due to violation of their quality norms. (June 17, 2014 – Business Standard )England has rejected Alphanso mangoes from India on inferior quality ground. (June, 2014)

6) Production of quality food on par with international standards

7) Increasing competition from new players in global market,

By the end of this century, global earth temperature is likely to increase by1.8º to 4.0°C. - IPCC

8) Climate change

41

10) Consumer demands for food with particular attributes ( organic, eco-friendly, hygienic)11) Promoting sustainable challenges.

12) Maintenance of ecological balance, 13) Soil and water conservation and conservation of biodiversity,

9)Diminishing availability of natural resources for agricultural production,

16) Development of Ethically sound GM crops.

Years 1950-51

1960-61

1970-71

1990-91

2000-01

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Gross Cropped Area 131.89 152.77 165.79 185.74 185.34 198.97 195.63 194.40

CAGR (%) --  1.48 0.82 0.73 -0.02 0.71 -1.67 -0.63

Trends in Gross Cropped Area

14) Natural resources degradation, & increasing biotic and abiotic pressures

15) Declining input use efficiency and decreasing profitability in farming

42

Agricultural Projections for India 2020Commodity 2020 (mn.tonnes)Food grains 225

Edible Oil 19

Sugar 42

Potato 40

Fruits and Vegetables 176

Milk 128

Meat 6

Eggs 5Fish 14

The Future of Indian Agriculture Yoginder K. AlaghChairmanInstitute of Rural Management, Anand

43

• Cooperative farming • Switching from Subsistence farming to Commercialized farming• Practices of intensive Cropping • Intensive use of quality agricultural inputs,• Improved Capital formation in agriculture• Promotion of FDI in agricultural sector,• Re-structuring of Quality Standards on par with global standards,• Use of Information Technologies in agriculture sector,• Bio- risk Management• Following IPM, INM and Conservation agriculture• Conducting ethically sound research in agriculture • Integrated Farming System

Suggestions to overcome future Challenges

44

Conclusion Albeit various factors affecting agriculture (Gross cropped area, input usage, credit

availability etc) have registered a smooth growth as compared to the past and they have resulted in growth in agricultural production and productivity but the average annual rate of growth is declining.

There is overall increasing trend in all the factors except the monsoon, which has shown declining trend.

The performance of agricultural sector is not so good as its contribution to national GDP as well as total national export is declining.

The performance of agricultural sector is the issue to be circumspect and to workout the new plan to enhance it.

Though the challenges to the agricultural sectors are many, but they can be overcome and resolved by developing appropriate strategy and implementing them.

45

References

1. Agricultural Statistics at a glance - 2014, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India

2. Agricultural Marketing in India - S.S. Acharya & N.L. Agarwal3. Pocket Book on Agricultural Statistics – 2015, Ministry of Agriculture,

Government of India4. Yojna, June 20165. State of Indian Agriculture, 2014, Ministry of Agriculture, Government

of India6. The Future of Indian Agriculture - Yoginder K. Alagh Chairman

Institute of Rural Management, Anand7. A competitive Book of Agriculture, Nem Raj Sunda8. www.imd.gov.in9. www.indiastat.com10. niti.gov.in

THANK YOU