group presentation may 2017 - dangote cement...group presentation may 2017 at a glance 2 •largest...
TRANSCRIPT
Group presentationMay 2017
At a glance
2
• Largest cement producer in Africa, 45.8Mta capacity as of May 2017
– Operations in 10 countries across Africa
• Delivering strong financial and operating performance
– 6.0Mt cement sold through operations in ten countries in Q1 2017
– Q1 2017 revenues of ₦208.2bn, up 48% on Q1 2016
– Q1 2017 EBITDA of ₦103.0bn at 49.5% margin
– Net debt of ₦180.2B
• Creating a diversified pan-African business profile
• Largest company on Nigerian Stock Exchange
– Market capitalisation $9bn; ca. 30% of total NSE capitalisation
– A bellwether on the cement sector and on Africa’s growth
Our presence
3
Our achievements so far
4
+45.4%
Before we began manufacturing, Nigeria was one of the world’s biggest importers of cement.
In 2012 we opened 11Mta new capacity that enabled it to become self-sufficient
In 2016 we transformed Nigeria into a NET EXPORTER OF CEMENT
Strong financial growth
5
+46%+47%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue EBITDA Cash flow from operations Capex Dividend paid
₦B
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nigeria Cameroon Ethiopia Ghana Senegal South Africa Tanzania Zambia
Strong volume growth
6
20.4% CAGR
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Why Sub-Saharan Africa? Why cement?
7
Cement demand driven by
increasing population,
urbanisation and prosperity
Sub-Saharan Africa
significantly lags global
average per-capita cement
consumption
Huge opportunity for African
producers to expand, replace
imports, especially in West
Africa, much of which lacks
limestone
Africa is the last major
growth market for cement
with relatively little surplus
capacity at present
High capital cost of
entry, construction time
and access to resources
are key barriers to entry
Key markets are
Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa;
cement ‘majors’ with high net
debt/EBITDA are less able to
take on additional debt to to
finance entry to these markets
Cement is an essential
building material with no
viable substitutes,
Africa needs billions of
tonnes in the coming
decades
Many incumbents are sub-
scale, use older technologies,
so are vulnerable to well-
funded industry disruptors
Overview of African cement market
8
• Increasing political stability enabling rapid economic growth
• Steady population growth, younger profile increases need for building
• Increasing urbanisation; 163m more urbanised by 2025, almost the present population of Nigeria
• Emerging middle-class, increasing consumerisation and access to financial services e.g. banking, mortgages, credit
• Increasing demand for more and higher grades of cement as urbanisation drives infrastructure, housing and commercial building
Positive long-term mega-trends
Source: Industry Sources, BMI, World Bank, IMF
1. Global average includes China.
• Unlocking of natural resources (oil, commodities)
• Increased manufacturing capabilities (for both domestic consumption and exports)
• Increasing inward investment as aid is replaced by commercial funding
• Accelerating technological adoption, enabling ‘leap-frogging’
• In early build-out phase of development, cement is used in ‘economic multipliers’ e.g. infrastructure, with positive feedback for cement demand
Supportive growth factors
• Historical SSA GDP growth of 4.0% between 2011 – 2016
• Expected SSA GDP growth to recover to 2.9% in 2017 after downturn (IMF)
Attractive long-term economic potential
Rapid increase in urbanisation presents strong opportunity
Liberia Niger
EthiopiaMali
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone
Tanzania
Senegal
Kenya
Nepal
Cameroon
Côte d’Ivoire
Zambia
Ghana
Laos
Congo
Palestine
Pakistan
Nigeria
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Global Average: 573kg(1)
Materially lower cement consumption in Africa
GNI US$
Pe
r-ca
pit
a ce
men
t co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
Kg)
360 435523
621732
854989
1137
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Rural UrbanMillions 163m more urbanised people
By 2025 is almost equal the present population of Nigeria
9
Strategic raw material access
• Limestone is the key and irreplaceable ingredientof all types of modern cement
• Commercially viable deposits of limestone are relativelyscarce across many parts of Africa
– Ideally need high-quality limestone to be neardemand centres, fuel and distribution network
• Nigeria has a relative abundance of quality limestoneespecially in key southern regions near to demandcentres, export facilities
– Nigeria also has good-quality coal that we will mineto achieve self-sufficiency in fuel
• Absence of limestone in much of West and East Africa,especially coastal states, forces those countries to importbulk cement or its intermediate product, clinker, usuallyfrom Far East and Nigeria
• Limestone reserves close to existing facilities each with alife of mine in excess of 30 years
• Dangote Cement plans an ‘export to import’ strategy toserve West Africa and Cameroon from Nigerian factories,exporting by road and in time by sea
Limestone in Nigeria is high quality and close to demand centres
Goal
Vision
Strategic initiatives and goals
10
Grow and diversify
across the last and
potentially most
attractive major
growth market for
cement
Strategic pillars / long-term goals
Consolidate expansion across
Africa
Achieve leadership in key
markets
Tap high-value export markets
Capture local markets with
superior quality and service
Adhere to global standards of governance
Improve sustainability
Strive to obtain a #1 or
#2 position in each
market, with at least
30% share
Serve landlocked
markets with high
sales prices and
margins, generate FX
to offset imported raw
materials
Serve markets with
delivered product
instead of factory gate
sales; use financial
strength to improve
service, reduce costs
Achieving international
standing through good
governance enables us
to access global
financial markets
Be most energy and
CO2 efficient company
in our industry, with
low environmental
footprint when
compared to peers
• Key elements of business model
– Target high-growth, populous markets with cement deficits and older/less efficient producers
– Be the leader in quality, costs and service wherever we operate
– Expand quickly and profitably when rivals are hampered by debt or smaller scale
To deliver superior and sustainable risk-adjusted ROI, IRR on our investments
To be Africa’s leading producer of cement, respected for the quality of its products and services and for the way it conducts its business
How we create value
Size and buying power enables favourable
procurement of plants at lower cost; brownfield
increases returns
Careful market selection looks for countries with good resources, cement deficit, ageing peers and
investment incentives
Larger scale of plants built with high degree of
standardisation and prefabrication to reduce capex, improve returns
New quarries enable optimal mining of
highest quality raw materials, improving
product quality
Good emissions control helps environment,
improves competitiveness in face of increasing industry regulation
Strong focus on quality ensures best-quality
materials, manufacturing processes and end
products, reduces waste
Fuel strategy improves margins by bulk
procurement, switch to lower-cost kiln/power
fuels e.g. coal
Larger kiln sizes enables higher-efficiency
production of clinker in most expensive step of
production
Use of modern vertical rolling mills enables finer
cement grinding, improves quality with
positive impact on setting time for block makers
Highly automated packing and loading reduces
manual loading, enables higher throughput
through packing lines
Ability to buy/operate trucks in bulk enables superior distribution capabilities, extends
market reach
Strong competitive advantages delivering improved returns for
shareholders
=
10
Board and Committees
12
Board of Directors
Aliko Dangote (1)
Onne van der WeijdeOlakunle AlakeSani DangoteAbdu DantataErnest Ebi*
Devakumar EdwinEmmanual Ikazoboh*
Fidelis MadavoJoseph MakojuOlusegun Olusanya *
Dorothy Ufot *
Douraid Zaghouani
Finance & General Purpose Committee
Olusegun Olusanya(1)
Olakunle AlakeSani DangoteErnest EbiDevakumar EdwinEmmanuel IkazobohFidelis Madavo
Audit, Compliance & Risk Committee
Ernest Ebi(1)
Olakunle AlakeSani DangoteDevakumar EdwinEmmanuel IkazobohFidelis MadavoOlusegun OlusanyaDorothy Ufot
Remuneration & Governance Committee
Emmanuel IkazobohSani DangoteAbdu DantataErnest EbiDevakumar EdwinJoseph MakojuOlusegun OlusanyaDorothy Ufot
Nomination Committee
Aliko Dangote(1)
Ernest EbiEmmanuel IkazobohOlusegun OlusanyaFidelis Madavo
TechnicalCommittee
Fidelis Madavo(1)
Olakunle AlakeAbdu DantataErnest EbiDevakumar EdwinJoseph MakojuDouraid Zaghouani
Statutory Audit Committee(2)
Robert Ade-Odiachi(1)
Nicholas NyamaliSheriff YussufOlakunle AlakeOlusegun OlusanyaEmmanuel Ikazoboh
Note: * denotes Independent Non-Executive Directors.1. Chairman of Committee.2. The Statutory Audit Committee is not a Committee of the Board.
56 58
106 106
166
214232
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Report Pages
Strong corporate governance
13
• Achieved Premium Listing status on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, August 2015
• Followed rigorous audit of governance policies
• June 2016 appointment of first female director, Mrs Dorothy Ufot, SAN
• Adds strong legal knowledge
• Four Independent Non-Executive Directors
• Group-wide risk management initiative
• Improved Annual Report providing stakeholders with more information and greater transparency
• Implementation of key policies to meet international standards of governance
International standards of governance
EHSS commitments
• EHSS Head Massimo Bettanin appointed Q2 2016
• Formerly adviser to DCP during its work with ERM consultancy
• Major Environment, Health & Safety and Social initiative
• Standard approaches to be rolled out across all territories
• Occupational Health & Safety Management System
• Improves on plant-by-plant approach adopted so far
• Teams being recruited to Dangote Cement EHSS programme in 2016
• Working to adopt IFC Performance Standards
• Plan to adopt global sustainability reporting standards in FY2018
• Likely to be based upon GRI G4 Sustainability reporting Guidelines
Improving corporate disclosure
Q1 2017 highlights
14
3m to 31st March 2017 2016 Change
Sales volumes ‘000t ‘000t
Nigeria 3,770 4,513 (16.5%)
Pan-Africa 2,342 1,937 21.0%
Inter-company sales (87) (15)
Total 6,025 6,435 (6.4%)
Revenues ₦m ₦B
Nigeria 152.4 107.2 42.2%
Pan-Africa 58.7 33.7 74.2%
Inter-company sales (2.9) (0.3)
Total 208.2 140.5 48.1%
EBITDA ₦B ₦B
Nigeria 98.7 66.2 49.0%
Pan-Africa 7.5 7.3 2.2%
Inter-company and central costs
(3.2) (1.1)
Total 103.0 72.4 42.3%
EBITDA margin % %
Nigeria 64.8% 61.8%
Pan-Africa 12.7% 21.7%
Group 49.5% 51.5%
• Strong financial performance despite volume fall
• Revenues up 48.1%
• Group EBITDA up 42.3%
• Nigeria EBITDA / tonne up 78.4%
• Improved fuel mix in Nigeria, own-mined coal
• Pan-African volumes up 21%
• Gaining share across Africa
• Strong cash generation cuts net debt to ₦180.2B
Financial overview
Three months to 31st March 2017 2016
₦B ₦B % change Comments
Revenue 208.2 140.5 48.1%
Cost of sales (87.8) (62.2) 41.2%
Gross profit 120.4 78.3 53.7%
Gross margin 57.8% 55.7%
EBITDA 103.0 72.4 42.4% Strong uplift from Nigeria after price increase
EBITDA margin 49.5% 51.5%
EBIT 83.2 56.1 48.3%
EBIT margin 40.0% 39.9%
Net finance income / (cost) (5.9) (1.6)
Profit before tax 77.3 54.5 41.8%
Income tax (expense)/credit (6.7) (1.7)
Profit for the period 70.6 52.8 33.7%
Earnings per share 4.25 3.12 36.2%
15
Income Statement
Financial overview
16
Movement in net debt
Cash₦B
Debt₦B
Net debt₦B
As at 1st January 2017 115.7 (356.5) (240.8)
Cash generated from operations beforechanges in working capital
108.2 - 108.2
Changes in working capital (9.1) - (9.1)
Income tax paid (0.1) - (0.1)
Additions to fixed assets (16.4) - (16.4)
Other investing activities (0.6) - (0.6)
Change in non-current prepayments (3.6) - (3.6)
Net interest payments (17.0) - (17.0)
Net loans obtained (repaid) (42.1) 42.1 -
Other cash and non-cash movements 8.9 (9.7) (0.8)
Dividend paid - - -
As at 31st March 2017 143.9 (324.0) (180.2)
(cont’d)
17
As at As at31/3/17 31/12/16
₦B ₦B
Property, plant and equipment 1,151.3 1,155.7
Other non-current assets 67.6 64.9
Intangible assets 5.0 4.1
Current assets 211.0 187.5
Cash and cash equivalents 143.9 115.7
Total Assets 1,578.8 1,527.9
Non-current liabilities 67.6 65.8
Current liabilities 317.9 308.3
Debt 324.0 356.5
Total liabilities 709.6 730.6
Net Assets 869.2 797.3
Net debt as % of net assets 20.7% 30.2%
Financial overview
Balance sheet
(cont’d)
18
Analysis of debt
₦B Short-term* Long-term Total %
Naira 159 20 179 55%
US$ 40 13 53 16%
Rand 7 40 47 15%
Other 11 34 45 14%
Total 217 107 324 100%
• Most short-term debt is to parent; plan to refinance with Naira bond
• Low US$ debt exposure, mainly in relation to LCs
• DCP Nigeria lends to country operations in US$, which results in gain on translation as Naira devalues
*Including overdraft
Strong Nigeria performance
19
• Strong improvement in Q1 EBITDA
– EBITDA per tonne of ₦26,175 (Q1 2016: ₦14,674)
– Higher pricing
– Better fuel mix including own-mined coal
• Q1 sales down 16.5% to 3.8Mt including exports
– 3.7Mt sold within Nigeria, despite recession
– Exports of 87kt
• Coal now available for all Nigerian kilns
– Own-mined coal now available to all plants
– Reduced importation of coal
– Advantage of self-sufficiency and reduced need for FX
• Strong marketing activity, 15,000 retailers now active
– National promotions reward consumers and retailers
– Strong brand recognition
Nigeria performance
Three months to31st March
2017 2016 Change
Volumes* (kt) 3,770 4,513 (16.5%)
Revenue* (₦B) 152.4 107.2 42.2%
EBITDA* (₦B) 98.7 66.2 (49.0%)
EBITDA margin 64.8% 61.8%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017
Quarterly sales (‘000 tonnes)
* Excl. corporate costs and inter-company eliminations (see note 4 to accts)
Strong uplift in Nigeria Q1 EBITDA
20
• EBITDA momentum maintained in Q1 2017
• EBITDA rose in Q4 after price increase of ₦600/bag, or ₦12,000/tonne and improvement in fuel mix
• Indication of strong improvement in profitability for 2017 even if volumes are same or lower than 2016
– Fuel mix will improve in Q2, following limited use in Q1
– Q2 margins will benefit from additional price adjustment of +₦150/bag in Jan, ₦250 in Feb and ₦75 in Apr (inc. VAT)
₦ 23,743 ₦ 25,738₦ 28,192
₦ 37,817
₦ 40,412
₦ 14,674₦ 13,729
₦ 12,407
₦ 24,859
₦ 26,175
4,513
4,253
3,233 3,130
3,770
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
₦ 0
₦ 5,000
₦ 10,000
₦ 15,000
₦ 20,000
₦ 25,000
₦ 30,000
₦ 35,000
₦ 40,000
₦ 45,000
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Revenue per tonne EBITDA per tonne* Volume ('000 tonnes)
61.8% 53.3%44.0%
65.7%64.8%
*excluding central costs
Nigeria price evolution
21
• Price remains well below highest level in US$ terms
₦ 1,327
₦ 1,462
₦ 1,150
₦ 1,567 ₦ 1,581₦ 1,629
₦ 1,652
₦ 1,367
₦ 1,271
₦ 1,414₦ 1,462
₦ 2,033₦ 2,081
₦ 2,224
₦ 2,462
₦ 2,533
$167
$177
$142
$189
$176
$164$166
$137
$128
$142$145
$131
$134$141
$156$160
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
₦ 1,000
₦ 1,200
₦ 1,400
₦ 1,600
₦ 1,800
₦ 2,000
₦ 2,200
₦ 2,400
₦ 2,600
Jan-14 Feb-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 May-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 May-16 June-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17
Ex-factory price before discounts (excl. VAT)
₦/bag (LH scale) $/tonne (RH scale)
Nigeria fuel mix greatly improved
22
Three months
to 31st March Obajana Ibese
2017 2016 2017 2016
Gas 47.9% 66.8% 53.5% 43%
Imported coal
8.0% 14.6% 30.9% 43%
Nigerian coal
37.9% 0% 12.2% 0%
LPFO 6.2% 18.6% 3.4% 14%
100% 100% 100% 100%
Relative cost of alternative fuels vs gas per tonne of clinker
Obajana Ibese
Own-mined coal 0.9x 0.9x
Locally bought coal 1.0x 0.9x
Imported coal 1.7x 1.4x
Gas 1.0x 1.0x
LPFO 2.8x 2.1x
Pan-Africa gaining momentum
23
• Strong performance despite economic downturnacross much of Africa
• Sales volumes up 21.0% to 2.3Mt
• Revenues up 74.2% to ₦58.7B
• EBITDA up 2.2% to ₦7.5B
– Strong margins in Ethiopia and Senegal
– Diesel costs in Tanzania still weigh on margins
– Start-up costs in Sierra Leone, Congo
• Gaining/consolidating market shares across Africa
• Sierra Leone now selling cement
• Congo expected operational in Q2Cement sales ('000 tonnes)
1,937
2,342
0
1,000
2,000
Q1 2016 Q1 2017
Rest of Africa performance
Year ended31st December
2017 2016 Change
Volumes sold (kt) 2,342 1,937 21.0%
Revenue (₦B) 58.7 33.7 74.2%
EBITDA* (₦B) 7.5 7.3 2.2%
EBITDA margin 12.7% 21.7%
* Excluding corporate costs and eliminations (see note 46 to accounts)
Country updates
24
Cameroon
• GDP expected to grow by nearly 6% in 2017
• Over 300kt cement sold in Q1 2017, up 14% on the 261kt old in Q1 2016
• Market share 43%
• Improvement in sales and marketing strategies
• Prices stable at around $99/tonne
• Ban on imported cement
• Gap in housing creating opportunity for cement industry
Ghana
• 287kt cement sold, up 17%
• 26% market share (Q1 2016; 18.5% market share)
• Average price $97/tonne
• Increasing importation of cement from Nigeria, providing non-duty alternative to imports
• Greater number of trucks for cement distribution
Ethiopia
• Economy remains robust; increasing number of government driven projects
• Dangote Cement sold 527kt cement in Q1 2017, up 17% on the 451kt sold in Q1 2016
• Largest market share of 28% due to quality of cement
• Average price of $83/tonne achieved in Q1 2017 Reduced cost of delivered cement
Senegal
• Nearly 10% increase in sales to 360kt
• Market share now almost 35% from 27%
• Recent introduction of 32.5R-grade cement well received by the market
• Slight decrease in cement prices
• Continued government commitment to infrastructure investment
• Plans to stimulate export sales neighbouring Mali and Guinea-Bissau
Country updates
25
Sierra Leone
• Surge in building activities after Ebola epidemic
• Dangote Cement operations began in January 2017, making first contributions to Group results
• Nearly 23kt cement sold in Q1
• 25% market share
• Average price achieved was $120/tonne
South Africa
• 5% price increase in February 2017
• Drive to increase volumes in the bulk sector and 42-R grade cement bags sales
• Decrease in transport diversions and diversion cost
• More favourable outlook for economic growth; cement demand growth projected at 5.9% in Q1 2017
• Rand recovering
• Lower than expected inflation and interest rates
Tanzania
• Volumes up 340% to 228Kt
• Market share of 21% just 12m after launch
• Diesel gensets to be replaced by gas
• $100m investment in permanent power plant
• Allocation of land to mine coal
Zambia
• 147kt sold in Q1, 80% delivered with own fleet
• Slightly lower than Q1 2016 owing to heavy rains
• Market share of 43%
• Market expected to improve this year
• IMF funds expected to be released
• Mining activity expected to pick up
Update on trading and outlook for 2017
26
• Sharp increase in Nigerian EBITDA/tonne will drive substantial margin gains in 2017, even if volumes are flat
• Focus remains on EBITDA in US$
• Volume growth expected from:
• Increased exports from Nigeria to Ghana
• Tanzania ramp-up in 2017
• New capacity making first contributions
• Sierra Leone (0.7Mta) selling cement since February
• Congo (1.5Mta) first sales expected April
• Own-mined coal soon arriving at plants, further improving margins
• Pan-Africa margins will be boosted by gas in Tanzania, H2
• Will enable replacement of expensive diesel gensetsby gas turbines in June/July
• Construction of dual coal/gas power plant
• Gas also an option for kilns
+46%+47%
Tanzania power plant$90m
Nigeria$60m
Pan-Africa$140m
Projected capex, 2017$m
Sustainability
27
+46%+47%
• Dangote Cement is committed to introducing sustainability reporting in its 2018 Annual Report
• Reporting will be guided by:
• Nigerian Stock Exchange requirements on sustainability reporting
• Cement Sustainability Initiative
• Global Reporting Initiative G4 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines
• Initial focus likely to be upon:
• Carbon disclosure
• Emissions monitoring
• Responsible use of fuel and raw materials
• Employee health and safety
• Biodiversity impacts
• Water impacts
• Timetable
• 2016: Benchmark industry standard reporting, identify relevant reporting standards, develop pilot monitoring studies
• 2017: Review pilot studies, develop policies and finalise KPIs, staff training
• 2018: Roll out monitoring and reporting system across entire business, data assurance, regular management reviews
• 2019: Produce first Sustainability Report
Pioneer Tax schedule
28
+46%+47%Gboko 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Line 1
Line 2
Ibese 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Line 4 Feb
Obajana 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Line 1
Line 2
Line 3
Line 4 Feb
Tax holiday
Country capacities
29
+46%+47%
Nigeria Cameroon Congo Ethiopia Ghana
Producer Capacity Producer Capacity Producer Capacity Producer Capacity Producer Capacity
Dangote 29.3 Lafarge 1.7 Dangote 1.5 Dangote 2.5 Ghacem 4.4
Lafarge Africa 10.5 Dangote 1.5 Others 1.5 Mugher 2.2 Diamond 3.0
BUA 3.5 MEDCEM 0.6 Total 3.0 Messebo 2.0 Dangote 1.5
Purecem 0.1 CIMAF 0.5 Derba 2.0 CIMAF 1.0
Total 43.4 Total 4.3 National 1.2 Total 9.9
Habesha 1.2
Ethio 1.0
East 0.8
Ture 0.5
Pioneer 0.5
Total 13.9
Senegal Sierra Leone South Africa Tanzania Zambia
Producer Capacity Producer Capacity Producer Capacity Producer Capacity Producer Capacity
Sococim 3.5 Dangote 0.7 PPC 6.0 Dangote 3.0 Dangote 1.5
Ciments du Sahel 3.2 Leocem 0.6 Dangote 2.8 Twiga 2.0 Lafarge 1.3
Dangote 1.5 Other importers 0.3 Afrisam 4.0 Simba 1.5 Zambezi 0.3
Total 8.2 Total 1.6 LafargeHolcim 3.2 Rhino 0.7 Great Wall 0.3
NPC 1.5 Nyati 0.6 Oriental 0.1
Mamba 1.0 Tembo 0.3 Total 3.5
Total 18.5 Other grinding 0.6
Total 8.7
Source: Dangote Cement estimates
Investor Relations contacts
30
For further information contact:
Carl FranklinHead of Investor RelationsDangote Cement Plc
+44 207 399 3070+44-7713 634 [email protected]
www.dangotecement.com
@DangoteCement