Group No - 10WFM 6311

Climate Change Risk Management

Institute of Water and Flood Management(IWFM)

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

December, 2009

TERM PAPER ON

CLIMATE CHANGE LEAD TO SEA LAVEL RISE AND

IMPACT ON COSTAL AREA SALINITY PROBLEM IN

BANGLADESH

Submitted To Submitted ByDr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam 1. Md. Mosiur RahmanProfessor M.Sc ID-1009282006IWFM, BUET 2. Md. Rakibul Hassan M.Sc ID-1009282015

Abstract Scientists have recently reported that polar ice caps are melting. This is due to a

rise in atmospheric temparature. Carbon dioxide gas is accumulating in the North and South Poles are melting and may eventually lead to a rise in sea levels. Bangladesh is extremly vulnerable to climate change because of its geophysical settings. It is a low laying flat country with big inland water bodies, including some of the biggest rivers in the world. Bangladesh is a flood prone country. In normal years about one fifth of the country is flooded. The total drainage area of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin is 1.75 million sq.km and the average annual water flow is 1350 billion cubic meters, whice is drained through Bangladesh but the GBM basin area within Bangladesh is only about 7-10% of the total area. If rainfall increase due to climate change in the GBM basin that will create huge water flow througe the rivers of Bangladesh. Eventually the monsoon flood will be more devastating due to increase of precipitation and sea lavel rise that may cause more damage to crops and properties if adaptation measures are not taken. There are some areas like coastal belt in the southern part of bangladesh presence of high concentration of salinity.

This study assessed the impacts of climate change and sea lavel rise on monsoon flood and land type for different districts in different hydrological regions of Bangladesh since impact on land type determines the change on agricultural yield as it is associated with croping pattern.

Objective of the studyObjective of the study Identifying major livelihood group in coastal region of

Bangladesh.To review the trend of coastal ecosystem changes. Identifying the relationship between coastal ecosystem

and livelihood pattern.To find out the consequent changes in livelihood pattern

due to changes in ecosystem.To identify the regional variation of salinity on its degree

and extent.Review of the impact of salinity on resources and

livelihood.To identify different types of adaptation of the

inhabitants.

OBSERVATIONS OF SEA LEVEL CHANGES

several estimates for global and regional 20th-century sea level trends based on the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) data set (Woodworth and Player, 2003).

Based on a small number (~25) of high-quality tide gauge records from stable land regions, the rate of sea level rise has been estimated as 1.8 mm yr–1 for the past 70 years (Douglas, 2001; Peltier, 2001), and Miller and Douglas (2004) find a range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr–1 for the 20th century from 9 stable tide gauge sites. Holgate and Woodworth (2004) estimated a rate of 1.7 ± 0.4 mm yr–1 sea level change averaged along the global coastline during the period 1948 to 2002, based on data from 177 stations divided into 13 regions.

The Coastal ZoneThe Coastal ZoneThe delineation of the coastal zone of

Bangladesh has been governed by three basic natural system processes. These processes are◦ Tidal fluctuations◦ Salinity (soil, water or groundwater)◦ Cyclone and storm surge risk.

19 districts 147 upazilasOut of which 48 upazilas in 12 districts are

exposed to the sea or lower estuaries and 99 upazilas lie in the interior coast.

Trends of increase of Temperature

Sea Lavel Rise due to due to Increase of Temperature

Cracks in Ice barsCracks in Ice bars

Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with increased with a rate of a rate of 1.03 1.03 00C per 100 years C per 100 years

y = 0.0103x + 25.428

R2 = 0.2996

23

24

25

26

2719

48

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

(c)

Some Empacts of Salinity Problem in Coastal Zone of BangladeshSome Empacts of Salinity Problem in Coastal Zone of Bangladesh

Assets Components Factors Production Livelihood Involvement Effect of Salinity

Natural resources

Agriculture Fresh Water, Types of

Crops Crops, vegetation Farmers

Efficiency, Amount, Diseases

Fisheries Fresh & Saline Water

Fishes, Shrimp Fishes, Shrimp,

Crab Fisher

Number of fresh and saline water fishes

Land

Agricultural land Crops Farmer Fertility

Settlement area Household Members Quality

Industrial area Goods Labor Area Quality (safety) Infrastructure Transportation Labor

Ponds and ghers Fishes & Shrimp

Fishermen Rate

Facility

Surface Water

River Transportation

Fisheries Boatmen

Fisher Self labor

Sedimentation Flocculation

Mixing

Floodplains (Wetlands, depress land)

Indigenous plant, Fishes, Animals,

Medicinal plant

Local people, Marginal's, Women.

Pollution Sediment quantity Ecology

Diversity Succession

Groundwater Deep aquifer

Shallow aquifer Deep aquifer

STP for Water DTW for Water

Wage Labor, Women, Farmer

Volume Quality Utilization

Plants & Microbes

Sea Estuary branches and

coastal waters Breeding Ground Fry-catchers, Fishers

Zone shifting Biodiversity

Siltation Ecosystem

Forests Sundarban mangroves Timber, Honey,

others Baoli, Maoli, Hunter, Fisher, Fry-catchers

Succession, Biodiversity composition of plants,

Animals, Breeding ground

Impact on Sea Lavel Rise

Climate Change: In Study Area (Salinity)Climate Change: In Study Area (Salinity)

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION In agrarian economy, where 74% of the labour force of rural area is

dependent on agriculture for employment, prolonged water logging in the South-West region, keeping the land out of agricultural production for decades, has resulted in social imbalance. All out efforts are being exercised to create a congenial environment for well-balanced social progress. TRM, though it is in a "learning by doing" stage, may lead to a successful model for restoration of the intricate eco-system of coastal zone of South-West Bangladesh.

about 35% people face the problem of food shortage and due to saline water intrusion in the agricultural field the production will decrease of about 47% of the selected population.

In the long term their property has been lost of their 12% of population and shortage of drinking water causes problem to 24% of the population. Due to salinity intrusion through the agricultural field income level of the people will decrease 29%.

RECOMMENDATIONRECOMMENDATION

The recommandations are as follows- Recognize the need.Develop integrated management strategies. Balance broad scale management with targeted

management Involve local populations. institutional mechanism. Regulations on the management of coastal and marine

resources and some adaptation techniques.Coastal and marine resources, as common assets, should

be utilized in an environmentally sound manner in order to be sustainable and to meet the needs of future generations.

Thank You SirThank You Sir

andandThanks To AllThanks To All