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Philip Scott Group Executive Director Credit Suisse First Boston 17th Annual Insurance Seminar 14 November 2001

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Page 1: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Philip ScottGroup Executive Director

Credit Suisse First Boston 17th Annual Insurance Seminar

14 November 2001

Page 2: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Agenda

� CGNU overview

� Savings is a major growth business

� Capturing the growth

� Leveraging P&C profitability to support savings growth

Page 3: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

� 7th largest global insurer� Worldwide premium income and investment sales of £27 billion (2000)

� Largest insurer in the UK home market� 11% market share in long-term savings� 19% market share in property & casualty

� Over £200 billion in assets under management at 30 June 2001

CGNU Overview

15

20

25

30

AXA Generali Allianz CGNU

1999

2000

€Bn

+14% +18% +16% +21%

European life premiums (€Bn)

Source: Life Premi ums sourced from Europe. Morgan Stanl ey, Oc tober 2001. CGNU calculated using average rate of exchange for the period.

Page 4: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

P&C31%

P&C31%

RoW 8%RoW 8%

ContinentalEurope

P&C8%

RoWLife3% Continental Europe

Life 29%

RoWP&C5%

Life69%Life69%

Europe92%

Europe92%

Premium mix - half year 2001

Note: Half Year 2001 numbers presented. Life includes retail investment sales and health premiums for ongoing business

UK Life37%

UK P&C18%

Page 5: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Strategy

� Grow long-term savings aggressively and profitably

� Build a world-class asset management business

� Focused approach to property & casualty with disciplined underwriting and efficient claims handling

� Build top 5 positions in each market

� Withdraw from lines of business or markets which do not offer the potential for market-leading positions or superior returns

Page 6: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Number 1 in UK, Ireland, Canada

Top 5 in Australia, New Zealand, Netherlands

Property & Casualty

Number 1 in UK

Top 5 in Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, Turkey,

Poland

Top 15 in France and Italy

Long-Term Savings

Number 2UK-based asset manager*

Top 10 European based asset manager*

Asset Management

A portfolio of leading businesses

*Source: ING Barings

Page 7: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Acute ageing of European populations

Source: Skandia

Demographic Pressures

Page 8: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Retirement savings underpins growth

0

20

40

60

80

100

Netherlands

US UK IrelandGermany

SpainFrance

Belgium

Italy

%

Source: World Bank

Private pension funds as a percentage of GDP

Page 9: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Strong growth in pensions savings

0

2000

4000

6000

UK Germany France Italy Spain

$ bn +10%CAGR

+16%CAGR

+13%CAGR

+12%CAGR +15%

CAGR

Source : Goldman Sachs

1999 2010

Projected retirement assets

Page 10: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

CGNU: Capitalising on pensions growth

� Strong position in UK � Pensions sales up 37%� Flight to quality � Leading stakeholder player

� Top 5 in Netherlands� Pensions sales up 47%

� 30% of Polish pensions market

CGNU total new business9m 2001 *APE

Pensions

Annuities

Page 11: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

European asset mix

0%

50%

100%

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Italian household financial assets 1991-2000

Insurance

Bank Deposits

Bonds

Equities

Mutual FundsOther

Source: ANIA/Merrill Lynch

� Long-term trend away from bond and deposits� Expect short-term reversal in current markets� Reforms and public awareness boosting pensions growth� Low interest rate environment increases attraction of

packaged equity products

Page 12: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Advice/Broker Bancassurance Salesforce Direct & Other

Spain

Italy

Germany

France

UK

Multi-distribution skills required across markets

Source: Datamonitor

Life

Page 13: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

UK life & pensions sales for 2000(APs + 1/10 SPs)

� Norwich Union - market leader� Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%)� Achieved during major integration exercise

UK Life

0

0.5

1

Norwich UnionStandard LifeSkandia

Scottish EquitableAXA

PrudentialAIG

Scottish Widows

Legal & GeneralZurich

£billion

Source: Money Management

Page 14: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

UK life - critical factors for success

� Low unit costs for the 1% world

� Good investment performance

� Strong brand recognition

� Leading product range

� High quality service

Page 15: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Norwich Union Life: strong distribution

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Direct (remote)

Banks & Building Socs

Direct sales force and tied agents

IFAs

Source: ABI

� UK is a multi-distribution market with growing IFA market share

� Norwich Union has leading positions in each distribution segment

%UK Life market distribution trends

Page 16: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Joint Venture Culture---

Low cost administration---

The UK’s leading product range---

Train sales force to CGNU standards---

Success with 21 building societies

10m customer base ---

2000 Branches---

Over 25% of small business market---

CGNU owns 50% stake in NatWest Life and Royal Scottish Assurance

UK’s largest bancassurance deal

� Bank brand for products avoids CGNU channel conflict� Building growth momentum into 2002

Page 17: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Source: Companies annual reports, Deutsche Bank analysis

NNNNo o o o ofofofofbranchesbranchesbranchesbranches

4,500

0500

1,0001,5002,000

La C

aixa

Caj

a M

adrid

Cai

xa C

atal

unya

Iber

caja

CAM

Caj

a Es

paña

Caj

a D

uero

2,500

Ban

caja

+ U

nica

ja +

C

aixa

Gal

icia

CGNU Spanish distribution network

� 4th largest banking network

� 2500 branches

� 6.7m bank customers� Spanish Working Population 27m

Caja networks CGNU Spain

Page 18: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

LocalmarketshareCustomers

Bancaja 2.4M 24%

Unicaja 2.0M 18%

Caixa Galicia 2.3M 28%

Complementary branch networks

From Top 30 to Top 5 in 12 monthsFrom Top 30 to Top 5 in 12 months

Strong regional presence

Page 19: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

CGNU in Italy - growing through bancassurance

� 3 main bank distributors

� Access to large customer base

� One CGNU manufacturing platform

� Sales growing strongly

� 9 months 2001 £585m (2000 £164m)

Page 20: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Development Bank of Singapore

g Largest bank in SE Asia & No.1 bank in Singaporeg 4m customers (> 90% of population)

g Attractive long-term savings marketg New transparency to favour low cost providers g Leverage Group’s bancassurance expertise

Significant step into long-term savings in South-East AsiaSignificant step into long-term savings in South-East Asia

Page 21: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

CGNU bancassurance relationships

21 UKBuilding Societies

18 months. 8 new deals. Accessing over 20M customers18 months. 8 new deals. Accessing over 20M customers

Page 22: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Winning in the bancassurance channel

� Bancassurance track record

� Demonstrated profitability of partnerships

� CGNU bancassurance intellectual capital

� Local presence with cultural understanding

� Attractive proposition for regional banks to partner with a global player

Page 23: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Distribution expertise for new markets

Poland• 1992 £5m greenfield investment• In 2001:

•No 1 private pension provider•20% of life market•Over 2m customers

Poland• 1992 £5m greenfield investment• In 2001:

•No 1 private pension provider•20% of life market•Over 2m customers

New licenses pending in India and ChinaNew licenses pending in India and China

Turkey• Life launch 1996• Top-5 by 2001

Czech Republic• Launched 1997• Pension fund acquisition in 2000

Romania• Launched 2000

Hungary• Acquisition of Top-6 life assurer 2001Lithuania• Launched 2001

Turkey• Life launch 1996• Top-5 by 2001

Czech Republic• Launched 1997• Pension fund acquisition in 2000

Romania• Launched 2000

Hungary• Acquisition of Top-6 life assurer 2001Lithuania• Launched 2001

Page 24: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

CGNU: Multi-distribution strengths

Bancassurance

Direct & Tied Agents

Advice

Total group sales: Q3 (discrete) 2001(APs + 1/10 SPs)

Page 25: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Life & Savings SalesInvestment Sales

Profitable life growth

1997 1998 1999 2000

Full Year 2000 23.9%*

9 months 2001 24.6%

6

8

10

12

14

£bn

42

09m

2001

* At 2001 assumptions

� 20% increase in worldwidenew business contribution to £399m for 9 months 2001

New business marginNew business sales

Page 26: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Strong life results

� Life achieved operating profit up 12%

� Benefits from bancassurance partnerships in Italy and Spain

£m

UK 462 473France 124 110Ireland 33 37Italy 11 24Netherlands 75 93Poland 45 44Spain 7 31Other Europe (18) 28International 15 17

_____ _____Total 754 857

2000200020002000£m

20016 months

Life achieved operating profit

Page 27: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Re-shaping the property & casualty model

USA

London Market

South Africa

Japan

Belgium

Chile

Brazil

� Focus on personal and small commercial risks

� Aiming for lower volatility and short-tail risks

Property & Casualty exits

Page 28: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Targeting 102% COR across the cycle

excluding UK & French storm costs in 2000

including UK & French storm costs in 2000

98

102

106

110

114

Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01

%

� Results responding to rating, underwriting, expense and portfolio actions

Discrete quarterly COR progression*

*Excluding results from discontinued US general and London Market businesses

Page 29: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

6 months

2000 2001

UK 105% 103%France 154% 103%Ireland 107% 104%Netherlands 109% 104%Australia & NZ 105% 103%Canada 104% 104%

Group 109% 103%

Significant improvement in P & C performance

� Rating environment to remain firm

� Estimated maximum net loss from WTC remains at £35m

* Excluding results from discontinued US general insurance and London market businesses** Includes impact of French storms

**

Combined operating ratios*

Page 30: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Half-year results 2001

� Group operating profit1 up 42% to £977m

� Life achieved operating profit up 12% to £857m

� Worldwide long-term savings new business at £7.1bn

� Property & Casualty operating profit2 up 124% to £427m

� Interim dividend at 14.25p (2000: 14.25p)

1 Including l ife achieved operating prof it and stated before the amortisat ion of goodwill , exceptional items and discontinued businesses

2 Excluding results from discontinued businesses and PPB levy

Page 31: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Integration to complete by end 2001

LifeInsurance

Property &Casualty

OtherOperations

Achieved £233m[30 June 2001]

Target £275m[31 Dec 2001]

Target integration savings will be exceededEstimated £300m[31 Dec 2001]

� Fully provided for one-off integration costs of £425m in 2000

Page 32: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

CGNU Summary

� Strong market positions

� Multi-distribution capability across markets

� New bancassurance joint ventures fully on stream in 2002

� Long-term savings growth dynamics remain in place

� COR of 102% across the cycle

� Profitable P&C business supports LTS growth

Page 33: Group E xecutive Director Philip Scott - Aviva · (APs + 1/10 SPs) Norwich Union - market leader Market share increased to over 11% (start 2000: 9%) Achieved during major integration

Philip ScottGroup Executive Director

Credit Suisse First Boston 17th Annual Insurance Seminar

14 November 2001