groundfish monitoring program...groundfish committee tasking on april 7 to the plan development team...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Groundfish Monitoring Program...Groundfish Committee tasking on April 7 to the Plan Development Team regarding the CV standard 1. Provide an analysis on how much variance would occur](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042405/5f1e13117f0e1c1448537dfb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Groundfish Monitoring Program
Jamie M. Cournane, PhD
NEFMC Staff
Groundfish Plan Coordinator
Groundfish Committee
Meeting
June 9, 2016
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Groundfish Committee tasking on April 7 to the
Plan Development Team regarding the CV standard
1. Provide an analysis on how much
variance would occur under alternate CVs
using examples. For example, on a catch
of 3 million lbs. of species “X” with a CV of
30 what is the variance in the discard rate.
Changing the CV up and down provide the
variance in lbs. so that we can understand
how changes in the CV will affect our
management strategy.
2. Provide a comparison of the differences
in discard rates by gear type when the
discard rate is calculated with only
NEFOP data using the most recent fishing
year for which the entire data set is
available and the discard rate using
NEFOP and ASM.
2
Credit: NE Observer Program, NEFSC / NOAA
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Worked example of species “X” where
the true amount of discards in 3 million pounds
3
This is the risk that the estimated discards in a stratum being half, double and triple the true discards of 3 million pounds.…
At this CV…
1.5 million lb.
(half the true amount)
6 million lb.
(2x the true amount)
9 million lb.
(3X the true amount)
CV10 0% 0% 0%
CV30 1% 1% 0%
CV50 9% 9% 0.20%
CV70 16% 16% 0.60%
Increased risk of
being further
from the truth
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Worked example of species “X” where
the true amount of discards in 3 million pounds, CV = 10%
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1.5 6 9
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Worked example of species “X” where
the true amount of discards in 3 million pounds, CV = 30%
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1.5 6 9
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Worked example of species “X” where
the true amount of discards in 3 million pounds, CV = 50%
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1.5 6 9
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Worked example of species “X” where
the true amount of discards in 3 million pounds, CV = 70%
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1.5 6 9
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Any questions?
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http://www.decision-making-solutions.com/deAcision-making-in-uncertainty.html