gross domestic product - statistics south africa · gdp q4: 2018 @statssa. #gdp. gross domestic...
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GDPQ4: 2018
@StatsSA#GDP
GDPQ4: 2018
Gross domestic product4th quarter 20185 March 2019Embargo: 11:30am
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPQ4: 2018
GDP production
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GDPQ4: 2018
1,4%
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
1,1%
in Q4: 2018(year-on-year)
unadjusted
Real GDP
0,8%
in 2018(compared with 2017)
Sum of four quarters
Real GDP Real GDP
Growth figures for Q4: 2018
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GDPQ4: 2018
The 1,4% rise in Q4: 2018 was largely a result of increased economic activity in transport, storage & communication, manufacturing, and finance, real estate & business services
Quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP productionSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
1,7%-1,1%
Sector growth ratesQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
3,0%
Declining activities in the mining industry contributed to negative growth in the primary sector in Q4: 2018
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GDPQ4: 2018
0,2
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,3
GDP1,4%
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
-0,1
0,0
Industry growth rates in Q4: 2018Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4: 2018
Agriculture: An increase in the production of field crops contributed to the rise in agriculture
Mining: The decline was largely the result of low production in gold mining and ‘other’ mining and quarrying
Agriculture
7,9%1,1% 3,8%
PRIMARY SECTOR
Mining
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GDPQ4: 2018
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4: 2018
Manufacturing: Positive growth was largely driven by petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastics; motor
vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment; and food and beverages
Electricity: Positive growth was driven by a rise in the volume of electricity consumed and water distributed
Construction: Decreases were reported for residential and non-residential buildings, as well as for construction
works activities
Electricity
0,2% 0,7%Construction
3,0%
SECONDARY SECTOR
Manufacturing
4,5%
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GDPQ4: 2018
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4: 2018
Trade
0,7%Transport
7,7%1,7%
TERTIARY SECTOR
Finance
2,7%Government
0,6%
Personal services
1,7%
Trade: Weaker sales were reported for wholesale and motor trade, catering and accommodation industries
Transport: Increased activity was reported for land transport and transport support services
Finance: Financial intermediation, insurance, auxiliary activities and real estate activities contributed to growth
Government: The fall in government was partly attributed to decreasing employment numbers in the civil service
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GDPQ4: 2018
Nominal GDP values for Q4: 2018
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GDPQ4: 2018
Trade was up by R23 billion to R184 billion
Mining was up by R7 billion to R100 billion
Electricity, gas and water was down R8 billion to R35 billion
Agriculture was down R18 billion to R12 billion
Nominal GDP estimated at R1,26 trillion for Q4: 2018, R14 billion more than in Q3: 2018
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GDPQ4: 2018
Which are the largest (and smallest) industries in South Africa?Percentage contribution to total nominal GDP in Q4: 2018
Finance and business services
19%
Government18%
Trade16%
Manufacturing14%
Transport10%
Mining9%
Personal services
6% Electricity, gas and
water3%
Construction4%
Agri-culture
1%
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100%
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPp: revised and annual figures
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPp annual revisions
Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPp annual revisions
Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4: 2018
0,8%
in 2018(compared with 2017)
Sum of four quarters
Real GDP
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GDPQ4: 2018
Annual GDP growth rate
Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4: 2018
0,4
0,1
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,1
GDP0,8%
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
0,0
Industry growth rates in 2018
0,1
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPQ3 2016
GDPQ2 2017
GDPQ4: 2018
Expenditure on GDP
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GDPQ4: 2018
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
in Q4: 2018(year-on-year)
Unadjusted
Expenditure on GDP
Expenditure on GDP
Expenditure on GDP
Growth figures for Q4: 2018
1,6% -0,1% 0,7%
in 2018(compared with 2017)
Sum of four quarters
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GDPQ4: 2018
Increases in household consumption expenditure and exports, as well as a fall in imports, contributed to the 1,6% rise in Q4: 2018
Quarter-on-quarter growth in expenditure on GDPSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
3,2
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
Strong consumption expenditure as well as net exports spearhead the increase in the fourth quarter growthChange in inventories: -R53,9 billion (contribution: -8,7 percentage points)
2,0
0,1
-0,5
5,5
Expenditure on GDP
1,6%
Component growth rates in Q4: 2018Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
Household final consumption
expenditure (HFCE) 3,2%
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
Household consumption expenditure increased by 3,2% in Q4: 2018 in line with the rise in retail trade sales
Quarter-on-quarter growth in HFCESeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
0,6
0,6
0,2
0,5
0,2
0,2
0,3
0,0
-0,2
0,5
0,0
0,2
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
3,2%
HFCE by purpose
The main contributors to growth were furnishings and household equipment, clothing and footwear, food and beverages, and transport
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GDPQ4: 2018
0,8
0,7
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
3,2%
HFCE by durability
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
1,1
0,5
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GDPQ4: 2018
Government final consumption
expenditure (GFCE) 0,6%
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
An increase in purchases of goods and services and consumption of fixed capital contributed to the 0,6% rise in Q4: 2018
Quarter-on-quarter growth in GFCESeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
-2,5%
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GDPQ4: 2018
Fixed capital formation fell by 2,5% in Q4: 2018, driven largely by declining investments in machinery and equipment, construction works, residential buildings and non-residential buildings
Quarter-on-quarter growth in GFCFSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
1,6
1,9
0,1
-0,5
-0,2
-0,9
-4,5
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
-2,5%
GFCF by asset type
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
Change in inventories
-R53 932million
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
In Q4: 2018, there were large inventory drawdowns in mining and quarrying, manufacturing and transportQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Change in inventories(R million)
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GDPQ4: 2018
Exports and Imports
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Exports Imports
11,1% -16,0%
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GDPQ4: 2018
Exports increased by 11,1% in Q4: 2018, largely driven by a rise in the trade of pearls, precious & semi-precious stones, mineral products and vegetable products
Quarter-on-quarter growth in exportsSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
Imports of goods and services decreased by 16,0% in Q4: 2018, driven mostly by a fall in imports of machinery and electrical equipment, as well as mineral products
Quarter-on-quarter growth in importsSeasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPe: revised and annual figures
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPe annual revisions
Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPe annual revisions
Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4: 2018
0,7%
in 2018(compared with 2017)
Sum of four quarters
Expenditure on GDP
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GDPQ4: 2018
Annual GDPe growth rate
Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPe0,7%
Growth in 2018
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
-1,0
0,4
-0,3
1,1
0,8
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GDPQ4: 2018
GDPQ4: 2018
Provincial estimates
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GDPQ4: 2018
0,4
0,3
0,4
0,1
0,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
GDP1,4%
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
0,0
Industry growth rates in 2017
0,0
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GDPQ4: 2018
LP2,1%
MP1,9%
KZN1,8%
EC0,6%
FS1,4%
NW2,0%
NC2,8%
WC1,2%
GP1,1%
South Africa1,4%
Which provincial economies grew in 2017?
Annual change: constant prices
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GDPQ4: 2018
Provincial contribution to
the national economy
- 2017 -
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GDPQ4: 2018
Which industries drive your provincial economy?Top four largest industries in each province, 2017
Mining is the dominant industry for the following provinces, North West, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Northern cape. Finance is the dominant industry in Gauteng and Western Cape
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GDPQ4: 2018
How is each industry distributed across the country? (2017)
National agriculture production is concentrated in Western Cape and KwaZulu-NatalIndustrial activity for eight of the ten industries is concentrated in Gauteng
Low HighShare of national production
WC
Agriculture
EC NC FS KZN NW GP MP LP
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
Trade
Transport
Finance
Personal
Government
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GDPQ4: 2018
Recap
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GDPQ4: 2018
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP and expenditure on GDP growth rates
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GDPQ4: 2018
1,4%
in Q4: 2018(quarter-on-quarter)
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
1,1%
in Q4: 2018(year-on-year)
unadjusted
Real GDP
0,8%
in 2018(compared with 2017)
Sum of four quarters
Real GDP Real GDP
Growth figures for Q4: 2018
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GDPQ4: 2018
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment and GDP share per industry, Q4: 2018
Employment shares
Share of nominal GDP
23,7%
16,3%
19,4%
13,6%
3,7%
10,2%
1,1%
8,9%
3,1%0,8%
2,6%
5,1%
5,8%
8,1%
9,0%
10,7%
15,8%
20,1%
21,9%
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100% Employment shares: Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), 4th quarter 2018