grip - global risk identification programme, undp bureau for crisis prevention and recovery, +41 22...
TRANSCRIPT
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
National Risk Assessment:
Project Overview
Dr. Carlos VillacisGRIP Coordinator
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Purposes and Objectives
• Scope and Context
• Main Activities
• Key Outputs
• Implementation
• Work timeline
Topics
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Purposes and Objectives– National DRR strategies– National planning development
programs and investments– Budget and resource allocation
• Users/Beneficiaries– National authorities– National institutions and agencies– International Organizations
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Geological Hazards– Earthquake (primary) – 1:150,000– Landslides (secondary) – 1:50,000
• Hydro-meteorological Hazards– Floods – scale 1:150,000; – Drought – scale 1:150,000 or smaller; – Tropical Cyclones – scale 1:100,000
Scope – Multi-hazard
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
Mayon Volcano: the most active volcano in Philippines, 150 miles south of Manila, > 2400 meters (~8,000 feet) tall.
Typhoon Durian: Nov. 30, 2006
Torrential rainsMudslides
Death Toll: >1000Houses destroyed: 66,191 + buried houses
Recent eruption: February 28, 2006
Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Lesson learnt from Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines– Disaster preparedness based on multi-
hazards assessment;– Hazard assessment from a systems
perspective.
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Population – urban, rural (age, gender, income)
• Buildings – residential, commercial, industrial, public
• Livelihoods – industry, agriculture, tourism
• Critical facilities – health system, schools, governmental, police, fire stations
• Lifelines – roads, bridges, airports, ports, railways, sewage, telecommunications, power, etc
Scope – Multi-sectors
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Step 1: Country situation analysis (SIERA)• Step 2: Hazard assessment• Step 3: Exposure assessment• Step 4: Vulnerability assessment• Step 5: Risk analysis and profiling• Step 6: Identification of risk reduction
measures• Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy
Main Activities - Overview
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Step 1: Country Situation Analysis– Systematic inventory of existing data and studies– Integration of existing studies– Gap and needs identification– Coordination mechanism
• Step 2: Hazard Assessment– Identification of sources (active seismic faults, cyclone track
patterns, precipitation patterns)– Identification of hazard-prone areas based on historic data– Characterization of hazards (in terms of probability and
intensity)– Development of probabilistic hazard and event intensity maps
(return periods = 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years);– Development of hazard zonation maps
Main Activities - Tasks
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Step 3: Exposure Assessment– Categorization of exposed elements at risk
(population, infrastructure, livelihoods, critical facilities lifelines)
– Exposure surface models using dasymetric mapping method or grid approach
• Step 4: Vulnerability Assessment– Compilation of vulnerability functions for all the
categories of elements at risk (based on historic damage patterns)
– Comprehensive damage-loss algorithms for each category of elements at risk
Main Activities - Tasks
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Step 5: Risk Analysis and Profiling– Probable maximum losses (PMLs) (return periods =
25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years);– Risk expressed in terms of human impact
(mortality) and financial impact (absolute value and fraction of GNP)
– Risk aggregation to district or county level– Risk profiling by hazard, district, return period – Thematic risk profiles (social, productive,
infrastructure) – Composite risk profiles (multi-hazard) for relevant
return periods
Main Activities - Tasks
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• Step 6: Identification of risk reduction measures– High-risk areas– Risks to avoidance, reduction, transfer,
retention (preparedness)– Cost-effective analysis
• Step 7: Delineation of National DRR strategy– Priority, budget allocation, programmes
Main Activities - Tasks
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• National disaster risk profiles including national risk atlas
• Comprehensive DRR measures• National standards and methodologies• National Risk Information System
– Risk assessment results are readily available to all potential users
• National capacity– National team for risk assessment– Understanding and application of risk assessment
results
Key Results
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
• How long will it take?– 24 months
• Who implements NRA?– National working group under supervision
of relevant national authorities and with extensive supports from Multi-stakeholders
Implementation
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
Who should be involved
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
Project Components
• Component 1: CSA using SIERA• Component 2: Data integration & production• Component 3: Disaster risk mapping &
profiling• Component 4: Application development• Component 5: Outreach
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
Work Plan
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
Summary
• NRA is a strategic risk assessment aiming to support national decision/policy makers to shape national DRR strategy and action plans
• NRA should be multi-hazard, and comparable and aggregatable
• NRA is a 7-step process• An integrated governance and coordination
mechanism is highly essential to the success of a NRA exercise.
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GRIP - Global Risk Identification Programme, UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, +41 22 9178399, [email protected], www.gripweb.org
Training Workshop on Flood Risk Assessment - Istanbul, Turkey, Sept. 27 – Oct. 1, 2010
Any Questions?