gridlock? –transport in 2030
TRANSCRIPT
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Gridlock? Gridlock? –– Transport in 2030Transport in 2030
Solving Congestion in South Solving Congestion in South
East EnglandEast England
14th November, 2007
Adrian ShooterChairman, ATOC
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London’s economy depends on its railways
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“You can’t build your way out of congestion”
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London Commuting
People entering central London during morning peak (thousands)
2006
1.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.7%
7%
10%
34%
44%
Surface Rail
LU & DLR
Bus
Coach/Minibus
Car
Motor Cycle
Pedal Cycle
Taxi
Source: DfT Transport Statistics Great Britain 2007 Edition; Table 1.6
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Where are we Going?
Passenger Kilometres since 1995/96
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995/9
6
1996/9
7
1997/9
8
1998/9
9
1999/0
0
2000/0
1
2001/0
2
2002/0
3
2003/0
4
2004/0
5
2005/0
6
2006/0
7
2007/0
8
2008/0
9
2009/1
0
2010/1
1
2011/1
2
2012/1
3
2013/1
4
2014/1
5
2015/1
6
2016/1
7
2017/1
8
2018/1
9
2019/2
0
2020/2
1
2021/2
2
2022/2
3
2023/2
4
2024/2
5
2025/2
6
2026/2
7
2027/2
8
2028/2
9
2029/3
0
2030/3
1
2031/3
2
2032/3
3
2033/3
4
2034/3
5
2035/3
6
2036/3
7
Pa
ss
en
ge
r K
M (
Billio
n)
TfL Forecast
25% by 2025
White Paper
Forecast
22% by 2014
Ruth Kelly
50% by 2037
London Commuting
Passenger KM
99/00 to 06/07
Total Passenger KM
95/06 to 06/07
Note: Percentage Increase on 2005/06 Pass KM is assumed in all forecasts
Source of historical Pass KM : pre 99/00 = Lennon data (ATOC); 99/00 - 06/07 = ORR's National Rail Trends ver. Q1 07-08, Table 1.1b
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European Comparisons
42.240.9 40.4
33.928.3
22.1 22.119.6
11.5 10.17.4
5.33.2 1.2
-13.3
-17.6
-24.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
% i
ncre
ase
Gre
at B
ritai
nIre
land
Bel
gium
Franc
eS
pain
Ger
man
yD
enmar
k
Sw
itzer
land
(SB
B)
Holla
nd (N
S)
Finla
ndH
ungar
yIta
lyA
ustri
aN
orway
Cze
ch R
epubl
icP
olan
dP
ortu
gal
Country
Passenger Kilometres - 2006 against the Base Year (1995/6/7)
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New Line Capacity: HSL1
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London/SE Capacity Schemes
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What do Passengers want?
• Reliable, clean trains
• Good information
• Seat or standing?
• Value for money
• Easy ticketing
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What the White Paper Offers
• Improved performance to 92.3%
• 1300 new coaches (2/3 in S.E.)
• Platform and depot works
• Thameslink project
• Reading rebuilding
• £150m on stations
• £200m on freight schemes
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Clean, reliable trains; new depots
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Double deck trains?
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Longer trains
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Track capacity
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Station capacity
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Schemes to unblock capacity
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Access: bus
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Access: cycling/walking
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Access: car
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London Overground
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Electrification Benefits
• Acceleration rate improves capacity
• Alternative energy sources
• Regenerative braking
• Lighter vehicles
• Cheaper rolling stock cost
• Lower maintenance costs
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Regenerative braking saves 16% energy consumption
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Conclusions
Rail solutions:
• Longer trains, platforms
• Access to stations
• Schemes to unblock capacity
• Electrification
• New lines