gridded population projections - gtap · gridded population projections brian o’neill, ncar 2016...
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![Page 1: Gridded population projections - GTAP · Gridded population projections Brian O’Neill, NCAR 2016 GTAP Advisory Board Meeting. June 14, 2016. Washington, DC. Uses. Climate change](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022040610/5ed14688a225a048a515cfa7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Gridded population projections
Brian O’Neill, NCAR2016 GTAP Advisory Board Meeting
June 14, 2016Washington, DC
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Uses
Climate change impacts (e.g.,extremes, coastal impacts)
Spatial allocation of emissions
Spatial land use and land cover
Subnational energy and water demand
Main Features
Global extent
2010-2100 time horizon
Urban and rural population
1/8 degree (~12 km) resolution
Jones & O’Neill, in review.Jones & O’Neill, 2012,
2015 (US only)
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Data
Gridded Population of the World (GPW), SEDAC/CIESIN1990, 2000 (2010 released in beta), 2.5 arc minutes (~5 km)
Global Rural-Urban Mapping Projection (GRUMP)
Administrative Boundaries Population density
Costa Rica
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Projection Model
Gravity modelConstrained by national-level projections of total population and % urbanParameters estimated from historical data (GPW/GRUMP)
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Five Global Scenarios
SSP1
a f
SSP3
c h
Nigeria
SSP1:Low populationHigh urbanizationConcentrated
development
SSP3:High populationLow urbanizationSprawling
development
Density, 2100 Change in Density
Jones & O’Neill, in review.
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Spatial population projections
Billion person-days per year of exposure to heat waves, 2061-2080
800
600
400
200
0
High climateToday Med climate
High pop.
Low pop.
High pop.
Low pop.
Climate model projections
Example Application: Future exposure to heat waves
Jones et al., in prep.
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SSP 5Fossil-fueled Development
Global Pop.2061-2080 avg.8.5 billion
PopulationChange
PopulationDensity
Jones & O’Neill, in prep.
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Quantitative projections of SSP elements
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
GDP
per c
apits
($/c
ap -
PPP)
GDP/capPopulation
Urbanization
(IIASA) (NCAR) (OECD, PIK, IIASA)
(CUNY, NCAR)
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
ns)
Distance (km)
Population by Distanceto the CoastFlorida, 2100
A2, High Pop. Growth
EPAmodel
NCAR model, lower pop. growth (B2)
NCARmodel
IIASAmodel
Current
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Mosquito occurrence pattern:Type 1: Year-around potential for high abundanceType 2: Year-around presence but only seasonal potential for high abundanceType 3: Only seasonal presence of active stages, with overwintering eggsType 4: Only seasonal presence of active stages, with no overwintering eggs producing viable larvae
Monaghan et al., submitted.
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Monaghan et al., submitted.
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Urbanization
France: SSP5