greenhouse gas strategic services climate in croatia marktrealität und ausblick croatian-german...

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STRATEGIC STRATEGIC SERVICESSERVICES

Climate in Climate in CroatiaCroatia

Marktrealität und Marktrealität und AusblickAusblick

Croatian-German workshop on business cooperation

Zagreb, 12–13 December 2002

Christiaan VrolijkStrategic Services Unit

Natsource Tullett Europe Ltd

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Natsource InfoNatsource Info Führender Broker-Dealer

– New York, Toronto, Calgary, London, Oslo, Sydney, Tokyo

Environmental Products– Strom, Gas, Kohle– GHG, Erneuerbare Energie, SO2, NOx, Wetter

Finanzielle Produkte– Projektfinanzierungs-Beratung– Value- & Asset Management

Strategische Beratung– multinationale Unternehmen, CAN, NL, EU, UK,

PCF etc.

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InhaltInhalt

1. Einführung

2. GHG Markt bisher– Preisszenarien und Marktausblick

3. Natsource Rolle im Markt

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1. EinführungEinführung

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EntwicklungEntwicklung Erste Transaktionen seit 1997— ERs Emission Reductions— VERs Verified Emission Reductions

Seit Marrakesch (2001) zunehmend— CERs Certified Emission Reductions— ERUs Emission Reduction Units— AAUs Assigned Amount Units

UK, DK and EU Allowances

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Environmental marketsEnvironmental markets

Erneuerbare Energie– Netherlands– UK– Sweden– Italy– Belgium– Austria– RECS– EU Directive

Greenhouse gases– Denmark– UK– (C)ERUPT– Other governments– PCF– VERs– EU allowances– Kyoto mechanisms

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Warum jetzt handelnWarum jetzt handeln

Käufers Hedge Risiko Handeln Grünes Image Policy Entwicklung Diversifiziertes

Portfolio

Verkäufer Asset liquidieren Finanzierung der

projekte & technology Brand Recognition Policy Entwicklung Capture revenue in

case of Kyoto failure

Emission reductions = Risiko & opportunity

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2. Der heutige MarktDer heutige Markt

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KäuferKäufer

World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund

Private funds

Niederlandische Regierung: Erupt & Cerupt

Andere Regierung:– Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, etc.

Private Firmen

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UKUK Marktteilnehmer

– 34 Direkt, 5.000 CCL und “non-naturals” > 200 trades bisher; Markt: ~£4.00 @ £5.00

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Globaler GHG MarktGlobaler GHG Markt

Vorrangig VERs Forwards & Call Optionen Letzten 12 Monate sehr aktiv World Bank Schätzung: ~160MtCO2e

UK und DK Allowances seit Oktober 2001 Seit den Marrakesch Akkords sind

Verkäufer in der Lage CERs, ERUs, AAUs und evtl. EU Allowances anzubieten

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PreisePreiseVERs

JI-VERsCDM-VERs

NL-Erupt

AAUsCERsERUs

EUDkUK

— $0.60 – 1.50— $1.65 – 3 — $ 1.15 – 4.83— €5 – 9

— €7— $2 – 6— €4 – 5— €4 – 6— Dkr 3 – 36 — £4 – 5

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Preis vs. RisikoPreis vs. Risiko

Angebot garantierter Kyoto Compliance Tools– Verkäufer Risiko: Projektrisiko, Volumen,

Kyoto eligibility, Kreditwürdigkeit & Preis– Käufer Risiko: Kredit & Preis

– Käufer zahlt Risikoprämie & Zeit– Verkäufer muss notfalls Ersatzlieferung

vom Markt kaufen

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3. Natsource’s RolleNatsource’s Rolleim Marktim Markt

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Natsource’s Rolle im MarktNatsource’s Rolle im Markt

Alle “transactional services” erforderlich Regelmäßiger Kontakt mit Markt Teilnehmer

– Käufer und Verkäufer (buy/sell)– Up to date Markt Informationen– Beste Preise

Umfangreiche Erfahrung im Handel– Auch in diesem Markt

Optionele / Transaktionsstruktur (Risiko, Cash Flow etc.)

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Trading toolsTrading tools

Immediate settlement / spot market– Deliver now, pay now

Forwards– Deliver later, pay now or later– Can be stream of vintages (e.g. 2002–2006)– Price reflects costs, interest, risk

Options– Put, call, collar, straddle– Limit price risk on buy and sell side– Limited risk of failure of delivery

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Natsource market platformNatsource market platform

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Contact / informationContact / informationTransactional services:

Harvey Abrahams, Tim Atkinson, Martin Collins, Nina Marenzi, Albrecht von Ruffer, Fiona Santokie

Tel: +44 –20–7827–2942

Advisory services: Dirk Forrister, Frank Joshua, Christiaan Vrolijk

Tel: +44 –20–7827–[email protected]

www.natsource.comCalgary – Houston – London – New York – Oslo

Ottawa – Sydney – Tokyo – Toronto – Washington DC

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Market reality and Market reality and prospectsprospects

Croatian-German workshop on business cooperation

Zagreb, 12–13 December 2002

Christiaan VrolijkStrategic Services Unit

Natsource Tullett Europe Ltd

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About NatsourceAbout Natsource Trading floors globally

– New York, London, Tokyo, Toronto, Oslo, Sydney

Transactional services– Electricity, natural gas, coal– Greenhouse gases, renewables, SO2, Nox, weather

Financial services– Project financing consulting– Value & asset management

Strategic consulting– Multinationals, EC, NL, UK, World Bank, etc.

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This presentationThis presentation

1. Introduction

2. The markets today– Prices and market prospects

3. Natsource role

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1. IntroductionIntroduction

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Market developmentMarket development First transactions in 1997— ERs Emission Reductions— VERs Verified Emission Reductions

Increasing since Marrakesch (2001)— CERs Certified Emission Reductions— ERUs Emission Reduction Units— AAUs Assigned Amount Units

UK, DK and EU Allowances

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Environmental marketsEnvironmental markets

Renewables– Netherlands– UK– Sweden– Italy– Belgium– Austria– RECS– EU Directive

Greenhouse gases– Denmark– UK– (C)ERUPT– Other governments– PCF– VERs– EU allowances– Kyoto mechanisms

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Drivers for early tradingDrivers for early trading

Buyers Hedge risk Proprietary trading Green public image Policy development Diversify portfolio Green Power

Sellers Monetise asset Finance projects &

technology Brand Recognition Policy development Capture revenue in

case of Kyoto failure

Emission reductions = Risk & opportunity

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2. The markets todayThe markets today

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BuyersBuyers

World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund

Private funds

Dutch government Erupt & Cerupt

Other governments:

– Austria, Sweden, Finland, etc.

Private companies

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UKUK Market participants

– 34 direct, 5,000 CCA and traders Over 200 trades so far; market ~£4.00 @ £5.00

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Global GHG marketGlobal GHG market

Large share of VER forwards & call options Greatly increased activity in the last year New World Bank estimate: ~160MtCO2e

UK & DK Allowances since October 2001 Since Marrakesh, sellers are offering CERs,

ERUs, AAUs and also EU allowances

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PricesPricesVERs

JI-VERsCDM-VERs

NL-Erupt

AAUsCERsERUs

EUDkUK

— $0.60 – 1.50— $1.65 – 3 — $ 1.15 – 4.83— €5 – 9

— €7— $2 – 6— €4 – 5— €4 – 6— Dkr 3 – 36 — £4 – 5

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Price v. riskPrice v. risk

Guaranteed Kyoto Compliance Tools– Sellers risk: project, volume and price

risk, Kyoto eligibility and credit worthiness– Buyers risk: credit and price

– Buyer will discount for risk & time– Seller might have to contract emergency

replacement reductions on the market

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3. Natsource’s role inNatsource’s role inthe marketthe market

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Natsource role in the marketNatsource role in the market

All transactional services required Regular contact with market players

– On both sides (buy/sell)– Up to date market information– Best price

Extensive trading experience/knowledge– Also in these early markets!

Best contract structure to suit your business

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Trading toolsTrading tools

Immediate settlement / spot market– Deliver now, pay now

Forwards– Deliver later, pay now or later– Can be stream of vintages (e.g. 2002–2006)– Price reflects costs, interest, risk

Options– Put, call, collar, straddle– Limit price risk on buy and sell side– Limited risk of failure of delivery

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ho

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Natsource market platformNatsource market platform

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Contact / informationContact / informationTransactional services:

Harvey Abrahams, Tim Atkinson, Martin Collins, Nina Marenzi, Albrecht von Ruffer, Fiona Santokie

Tel: +44 –20–7827–2942

Advisory services: Dirk Forrister, Frank Joshua, Christiaan Vrolijk

Tel: +44 –20–7827–[email protected]

www.natsource.comCalgary – Houston – London – New York – Oslo

Ottawa – Sydney – Tokyo – Toronto – Washington DC

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Climate Change and PowerClimate Change and Power

Lead author:Christiaan Vrolijk

Published by:RIIA/Earthscan

Price:£19.95 paperback£50 hardback

Order:[email protected]

greenhouse gas strategic services climate in croatia marktrealität und ausblick croatian-german...

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