green peace battle of the grids

8/6/2019 Green Peace Battle of the Grids

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Battle ofthe Grids

Climatechange

Report 2011

How Europe can go 100 % renewableand phase out dirty energy


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Battle of the Grids

report 2011

Introduction 4

Key findings 5

The Energy [R]evolution in Europe 6

How the electricity system works 8

Battle of the grids - whats the big barrier? 10

New research: renewable Europe 24/7 13

The new energy map for Europe 16

Six steps to build the grid for 20

renewable Europe 24/7

The inflexible, dirty energy model for 2030 24

Case studies 25

Implications for Investors 27

Policy recommendations 28

Appendix 29

Types of renewable electricity 30

generation technologies

For more information contact: [email protected]

Authors:

Jan Van De Putte and Rebecca Short

Co-authors:

Jan Bernek, Frauke Thies, Sven Teske

Edited by:

Aeandra Dawe and Jack Hunter

Design and layout:

www.onehemisphere.se, Sweden.

Pubished b

Greenpeace International

Ottho Hedringstraat 5

1066 AZ Amsterdam

The Netherands

Te: +31 20 7182000

Fa: +31 20 7182002

greenpeace.org

GPI PROJECT NUMBER 343

Report available at: www.greenpeace.org

www.energbueprint.info

This report is based on research b Energnautics GmbH

and pubised in a technica report 'European Grid Stud

2030/2050', commissioned b Greenpeace Internationa.

Authors: Dr.-Ing. Eckehard Trster, MSc. Rena Kuwahata,

Dr.-Ing. Thomas Ackermann. For info and contact:

www.energnautics.com

cover image Wind turbine with pie ofcoa on the foreground, Vissingen,the Netherands.

Greenpeace / philip reynaers

imageAeria photo of the PS10Concentrating Soar Therma Power

Pant. The soar radiation, mirror designpant is capabe of producing 23 GWh of

eectricit which is enough to supppower to a popuation of 10,000.

Greenpeace / Markel redondo
http://www.onehemisphere.se/http://www.greenpeace.org/http://www.energyblueprint.info/http://www.energynautics.com/http://www.onehemisphere.se/http://www.greenpeace.org/http://www.energyblueprint.info/http://www.energynautics.com/


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Greenpeace International Battle of the Grids 3


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4 Greenpeace International Battle of the Grids

Introduction

The energ and transport sstems that power the industriaised word

are fueing dangerous cimate change. Etreme weather, decine in

agricutura production and sea-eve rise wi be fet b everone, rich

and poor. We can avert the worst impacts, but on if we rethink our

energ sstem.

Toda, Europes eectricit grid is characterised b big, pouting power

stations pumping out constant energ, regardess of consumer need,

aong a wastefu, aging A/C (aternating current) network. The

patchwork of nationa grids stitched together over the ears is an

uncomfortabe, uneconomica fit.

Cimate poic and consumer demand are hurting us towards a

smarter, more efficient Europe-wide grid that is aread opening up

vast new technoogica, business and consumer opportunities. Such

a grid coud guarantee supp despite etreme weather conditions,

deivering green energ around Europe via efficient, arge beow

ground DC (direct current) cabes. However, the reports tite, Battle of

the Grids, hints at the fact that we are at a poitica crossroads.

Despite the remarkabe growth in renewabes, ast ear the

generated more investment than an other sector, we are fast

reaching a showdown between green and dirt energ. Thousands of

wind turbines deivering near free energ were turned off in 2010 to

aow pouting and heavi subsidised nucear and coa pants to carron business as usua. It is estimated Spain had to ditch around

200GWh of energ ast ear. The buzz on the ips of industr

speciaists, obbists and in boardrooms is about sstem cash and

the costs of buiding and running what is increasing becoming a

dua sstem. This groundbreaking report demonstrates the probem

on a European scae. It aso proves that Europe is capabe of moving

smooth to a sstem that deivers near 100 percent renewabe

power around the cock.

Taken with Greenpeaces 2010 Energy [R]evolution report, Battle of

the Grids buids on Greenpeaces earier Renewables 24/7stud. It is

a how to manua for the kind of sstem we need to deiver 68

percent renewabe energ b 2030 and near 100 percent b 2050.

Industr eader Energnautics was commissioned to carr outetensive modeing and has deivered a working proposition for

Europe based on eectricit consumption and production patterns for

ever hour 365 das a ear at 224 nodes of eectricit

interconnections across a 27 EU countries, pus Norwa, Switzerand

and non-EU Bakan States.

The main feature is the centre-spread map which shows precise

how much of each renewabe power technoog is feasibe and how

much needs to be spent on infrastructure to deiver eectricit to

where it is needed across Europe. The map is the first of its kind -

no other stud has attempted to serious chart a future European

grid of an kind.

To be abe to reaise this new approach to energ deiver requires a

new wa of approaching the probem and in effect a new vocabuar.

The bo of ke terms summarises the concepts deat with in the

Battle of the Grids.

Baseload is the concept that there must be a minimum, uninterruptibe supp of power to the grid at a times, traditiona provided b

coa or nucear power. This report chaenges that idea b showing how a variet of fleibe energ sources combined over a arge area

can aso keep the ights on b being sent to the areas of high demand. Current, baseoad is part of the business mode for nucear and

coa power pants, where the operator can produce eectricit around the cock whether or not it is actua needed.

Constrained power refers to when there is a oca oversupp of free wind and soar power which has to be shut down, either because it

cannot be transferred to other ocations (bottenecks) or because it is competing with infleibe nucear or coa power that has been given

priorit access to the grid. Constrained power is aso avaiabe for storage once the technoog is avaiabe.

Variable power is eectricit produced b wind or soar power depending on the weather. Some technoogies can make variabe power

dispatchabe, eg b adding heat storage to concentrated soar power.

Dispatchable is a tpe of power that can be stored and dispatched when needed to areas of high demand, e.g. gas-fired power pants

or power generated from biofues.

Interconnector is a transmission ine that connects different parts of the eectricit grid.

Load curve is the tpica pattern of eectricit through the da, which has a predictabe peak and trough that can be anticipated from

outside temperatures and historica data.

Node is a point of connection in the eectricit grid between regions or countries, where there can be oca supp feeding into the grid as we.

Box 1


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Key findings

After etensive computer modeing1, incuding detaied predictions of

how much eectricit can come from soar and wind power pants

ever hour of the ear, the Battle of the Grids shows that:

1. large-scae integration of renewabe eectricit in the Europeangrid (68 percent b 2030 and 99.5 percent b 2050) is both

technica and economica feasibe with a high eve of securit of

supp, even under the most etreme cimatic conditions with ow

wind and ow soar radiation. This further confirms the feasibiit of

a 100 percent renewabe eectricit vision. It aso strengthens the

findings of Greenpeaces Energ [R]evoution2, which demonstrates

that meeting the demand in 2050 with 97 percent renewabe

eectricit woud cost 34 percent ess than under the IEAs

Reference scenario and that b 2030, 68 percent renewabe

eectricit woud generate 1.2 miion jobs, 780,000 more than

under the Reference scenario.

2.This requires significant changes in the energ mi:

in 2030, gas pants provide most of the non-renewabe eectricit

and serve as a fleibe backup for wind and soar power. Between

2030 and 2050, natura gas as a fue is phased out and repaced

b dispatchabe renewabe energ such as hdro, geotherma,

concentrated soar power and biomass.

because coa and nucear pants are too infleibe and cannot

sufficient respond to variations in wind or soar generation, 90

percent of the eisting coa and nucear pants have to be phased

out b 2030 and b 2050 the are compete phased out.

3.B 2030, some 70bn investment in grid infrastructure is required tosecure eectricit supp 24 hours a da, 7das a week with 68

percent renewabe power in the mi. B investing another 28bn on

epanding the grids b 2030, the constraining of renewabe sources

coud be reduced to 1 percent. The tota grid cost is imited to ess

than 1 percent of the eectricit bi.

4.Between 2030 and 2050, two different scenarios have beenanased in this report. In a High Grid scenario, the European grid

coud be connected to North Africa to take advantage of the

intense soar radiation. This woud ower the cost to produce

eectricit, but increase investments required in transmission to

581bn between 2030 and 2050. In the low Grid scenario, more

renewabe energ is produced coser to regions with a high

demand (arge cities and heav industr). This owers the

investment in transmission to on 74bn for 2030-50, but

increases the costs to produce eectricit because more soar

panes wi be instaed in ess sunn regions. In between those twover distinct High and low Grid scenarios, man intermediate

combinations are possibe.

5.At the moment, wind turbines are often switched off during periodsof high eectricit supp, to give priorit to nucear or coa-fired

power. To win the Battle of the Grids renewabe energ wi need

priorit dispatching on the European grids, incuding priorit on the

interconnections between countries, because their surpus

production can be eported to other regions with a net demand.

6.Economic consequences for nucear, coa and gas pants:

even if technica adaptations coud enabe coa and nucear pants

to become more fleibe and fit in the renewabe mi, the woudbe needed for on 46 percent of the ear b 2030 and further

decreasing afterwards, making investments in a nucear reactor of

some 6bn high uneconomic. Buiding a new nucear reactor is a

ver high risk for investors.

in a Dirt scenario, of the future with a share of infleibe coa and

nucear pants in 2030 cose to what is instaed toda, the

renewabe sources wi have to be switched off more often and the

cost of this ost renewabe production wi raise to 32bn/ear.

fleibe gas pants are ess capita intensive than nucear pants and

coud sti economica produce at a oad factor of 54 percent b

2030, functioning as a backup for variabe renewabe power.

After 2030, gas pants can be converted progressive to use

biogas, avoiding stranded investments in both production pants

and gas grids.

AlExANDERHAFEMANN

image Eectricit Station Pons.

1This anasis is based on Renewables 24/7 Infrastructure needed to save the

climate, Feb. 2010.

2 Energ [R]evoution. Towards a fu renewabe energ supp in the EU-27.

http://energbueprint.info/1233.0.htm
http://energyblueprint.info/1233.0.htmlhttp://energyblueprint.info/1233.0.html


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6 Greenpeace International Polar oceans in peril and a planet at risk

We can shape the future

The word knows that we are heading for severe, goba cimate

impacts because of over two centuries of industria deveopment

based on burning fossi fues. We aso know the soution: it is nothing

short of a revoution in how we provide and share energ. The Energ

[R]evoution, now in its third edition, is created b Greenpeace

together with the Institute of Technica Thermodnamics at the

German Aerospace Centre (DlR) and more than 30 scientists and

engineers from universities, institutes and the renewabe energ

industr around the word. It is a bueprint to provide cean and

equitabe power that meets the targets for greenhouse gas emissions

set b science, rather than poitics.

The situation in Europe toda is:

renewabe energ is booming. Over the ast decade, more than haf

of a new instaed capacit was renewabe power, not fossi fue-

based generation.

renewabe energ continued to grow through 2009 despite the

economic crisis.

wind power is now the undisputed eading technoog in Europe, with

gas in second position and soar PV in third investment in new

European wind farms in 2009 reached 13bn for 10,163 MW of wind

power capacit - 23 percent higher than the ear before.

wind turbines buit in 2009 wi produce as much eectricit as 3 to 4

arge nucear or coa power pants running at baseoad ever ear3.

meanwhie, both nucear and coa are decining; more pants were

cosed than new ones added to the mi over the ast decade.

A long way to grow

We can use current trends in the eectricit market to make reiabe

projections on what the energ mi coud be with the right support

and poicies. Greenpeace has pubished future market scenarios for a

decade, based on detaied studies of industr capabiit. In this time,

the rea growth of wind energ and soar PV has consistent

surpassed our own projections.

The reports provide a detaied scenario for Europe that is

conservative based on on proven and eisting technoogies.

The Energy [R]evolution in Europe

3 10,160MW of wind turbines at an average oad factor of 0.29 wi generate about

26TWh, comparabe with 3.5 arge therma pants of 1000MW each running at a oad

factor of 0.85.

Source: EWEA, Patts.

Figure 1 Net installed production capacity 2000-2009 in EU 27

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

-20,000

Naturalgas

81,0

67

65,1

02

13,0

27

8,

894

-7,2

04

-12,0

10

-12,9

20

M

W

Wind

PV

OtherRES

Nuclear

Coal

Fueloil

Source: EWEA, Patts.

Figure 2 Installed and decommissioned production capacity

in 2009 in EU-27

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

-2,000

-4,000

NEW CAPACITy

DECOMISSIONED CAPACITy

Wind

10,1

63

-115

M

W

Naturalgas

6,6

30

-404

PV

4,2

00

0

OtherRES

1,54

0

-269

Fueloil

573

-472

Coal

2,406

-3,2

00

Nuclear

439

-1,3

93



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The report uses top-down anasis of the overa energ supp at

European eve, pus bottom-up studies on technoog deveopment

and growth rates, earning curves, cost anases and resource

potentias of renewabe energ sources. The Energy [R]evolution

comes in basic and advanced scenarios, based on popuation and

GDP predicted b the Internationa Energ Agencs Word Energ

Outook of 2009.

The advanced scenario gives a CO2 reduction of 95 percent b 2050

for the overa energ sector. It incudes a phase-out of coa and

nucear power for eectricit b 90 percent b 2030 and entire b

2050. Renewabe eectricit sources woud supp 43 percent b

2020, 68 percent b 2030 and 98 percent b 2050 under these

conditions. The stud shows that a transition towards a fu renewabe

energ supp b 2050 is technica and economica feasibe.

A rea Energ [R]evoution woud

tap into Europes massive potentia

for energ savings and renewabe

energ and put it on a pathwa to

provide cean, secure and

affordabe energ and create

miions of jobs.

Greenpeace/Jirirezac

image Stockpies of coaunoaded from

buk carriers in theport of Gijon.


Table 1 What happens in the EU with an Energy [R]evolution

Primar Energ demand drops from78,880 PJ/a in 2007 to 46,030 PJ/a

in 2050

In 2050 fossi fues wi be repaced b biomass, soar coectors

and geotherma.

Geotherma heat pumps and soar therma power wi provide industria

heat production.

1,520 GW of power capacit, producing 4,110 TWh of renewabeeectricit per ear b 2050.

Tota eectricit demand rises from 2900 TWh in 2007 to amost 4300 TWh

in 2050, due to more use in transport and geotherma heat pumps.

More pubic transport sstems aso use eectricit and there is a shift to

transporting freight from road to rai.

In 2050, one kWh wi cost 6.7 euro cent in the Advanced scenario,

compared to 9.5 euro cent in the Reference

Compared to the IEA Reference scenario, fue cost savings of average

62bn/ear in the eectricit sector make up for the added investment cost

of average 43bn/ear (2007-2050).

Advanced Energ [R]evoution creates about 1.2 miion jobs in the power

sector in 2050

Tota energ demand reduced b one third

Renewabe sources wi cover 92 percent of

fina energ demand, incuding heat supp

and transport.

Renewabe energ forms 97 percentof supp.

Eectric vehices make up 14 percent of mi b

2030 and up to 62 percent b 2050.

Eectricit costs 1.2 cent/kWh more in 2030

than under IEA scenario

Eectricit costs 2.8 cents/kWh ess in 2050

than IEA Reference scenario

780,000 more jobs in the power sector than IEA

Reference scenario.

Efficiency

Energy

Electricity

Transport

Costs

Jobs


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How the electricity system works

The grid means a the wires, transformers and infrastructure that

transport eectricit from power pants to users. Current we run on a

mode of centraised grid that was designed and panned up to 60

ears ago. The sstems supported massive industriaisation in cities

and brought eectricit to rura areas in most deveoped parts of the

word. But now we have to re-think and re-work the grid to deiver a

cean energ sstem. It is a change that wi take us to the net stage of

societs technoogica evoution.

The old way

A grids have been buit with arge power pants in the midde connected

b high votage aternating current (AC) power ines. A smaer distribution

network carries power to fina consumers. The sstem is ver wastefu,

with much energ ost in transition.

The new way

The major difference in producing cean energ is that it requires ots

of smaer generators, some with variabe amounts of power output. A

big advantage is that the can be ocated inside the grid, cose to

where power is used. Sma generators incude wind turbines, soar

panes, micro turbines, fue ces and co-generation (combined heat

and power).

The chaenge ahead is to integrate new decentraised and renewabe

power generation sources whie phasing out most arge-scae, outdated

power pants. This wi need a new power sstem architecture.

The overa concept baances fluctuations in energ demand and

supp to share out power effective among users. New measures,

such as managing the demand from big users or forecasting the

weather and using energ storage to cover times with ess wind or

sun, enabe this. Advanced communication and contro technoogies

further hep deiver eectricit effective,

The ke eements of the new power sstem architecture are mg, mt g and a number of interconnectors for an effective

g. The three tpes of sstems support each other and

interconnect with each other.

Technological opportunities

B 2050, the power sstem needs to ook a ot different to todas.

This creates huge business opportunities for the information,

communication and technoog (ICT) sector to hep redefine the

power network. Because a smart grid has power suppied from a

diverse range of sources and paces, it reies on the gathering and

anasis of a ot of data. Smart grids require software, hardware and

data networks capabe of deivering data quick, and of responding to

the information that the contain. Severa important ICT paers are

racing to smarten up energ grids across the gobe and hundreds of

companies coud be invoved with smart grids.

Micro grids supp oca power needs. The term refers to paces where monitoring and contro infrastructure are embedded inside

distribution networks and use oca energ generation resources. The can supp isands, sma rura towns or districts. An eampe woud

be a combination of soar panes, micro turbines, fue ces, energ efficienc and information/communication technoog to manage oads

and make sure the ights sta on.

Smart grids baance demand out over a region. A smart eectricit grid connects decentraised renewabe energ sources and co-

generation and distributes power high efficient. Smart grids are a wa to get massive amounts of renewabe energ with no greenhouse

emissions into the sstem, and to aow decommissioning of oder, centraised power sources. Advanced tpes of contro and management

technoogies for the eectricit grid can aso make it run more efficient overa. An eampe woud be smart eectricit meters that show

rea-time use and costs, aowing big energ users to switch off or down on a signa from the grid operator, and avoid high power prices.

Super grids transport arge energ oads between regions. This refers to a arge interconnection - tpica based on HVDC technoog -between countries or areas with arge supp and arge demand. An eampe woud be the interconnection of a the arge renewabe based

power pants in the North Sea or a connection between Southern Europe and Africa where renewabe energ coud be eported to bigger

cities and towns, from paces with arge oca avaiabe resources.

Box 2 Definitions


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DAVISON/GREENPEACE

image Construction ofoffshore wind turbines.

Smart grid using micro grids and virtual power plants

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

SMARTGRID

CITy

North Sea wind turbinesand offshore supergrid

CSP in Southern Europe and Africa

North Sea wind turbinesand offshore supergrid

eisting AC sstem

Source: Energnautics.

NEW HVDC SUPERGRID

VIRTUAl POWER STATION MICROGRID

APP MINIGRID

DISTRIBUTED GENERATION GRID

16kWhbatter bank

1kWsoar PV

1kW windturbine

1kW verticawind turbine

3 20kWwind turbine

90kWsoar PV

2 60kWgas turbine

30kW gasturbine

23kWsoar PV

64kW testoad bank

minigridcontro room

power grid

site oads

+ -

Figure 3 Overview of the future power system with high percentage of renewable power


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Battle of the Grids: whats the big barrier?

Power from some renewabe pants, such as wind and soar, varies

during the da and week. Some see this as an insurmountabe

probem, because up unti now we have reied on coa or nucear to

provide a fied amount of power at a times. The tite of this report

refers to the strugge to determine which tpe of infrastructure or

management we choose and which energ mi to favour as we move

awa from a pouting, carbon intensive energ sstem.

Some important facts incude:

eectricit demand fluctuates in a predictabe wa.

smart management can work with big eectricit users, so their

peak demand moves to a different part of the da, evening out the

oad on the overa sstem.

eectricit from renewabe sources can be stored and dispatched

to where it is needed in a number of was, using advanced

grid technoogies.

Wind-rich countries in Europe are aread eperiencing conflict

between renewabe and conventiona power. In Spain, where a ot of

wind and soar is now connected to the grid, gas power is stepping in

to bridge the gap between demand and supp. This is because gas

pants can be switched off or run at reduced power, for eampe when

there is ow eectricit demand or high wind production. As we move toa most renewabe eectricit sector, gas pants wi be needed as

backup for times of high demand and ow renewabe production.

Effective, a kWh from a wind turbine effective dispaces a kWh from

a gas pant, avoiding carbon dioide emissions. Renewabe eectricit

sources such as therma soar pants (CSP), geotherma, hdro,

biomass and biogas can gradua phase out the need for natura gas.

(See Case Studies for more). The gas pants and pipeines woud then

progressive be converted for transporting biogas.

Baseload blocks progress

Genera, coa and nucear pants run as so-caed baseoad, meaning

the work most of the time at maimum capacit regardess of how

much eectricit consumers need. When demand is ow the power is

wasted. When demand is high additiona gas is needed as a backup.

Coa and nucear cannot be turned down on wind das. Instead, wind

turbines wi get switched off to prevent overoading the sstem.

The fa in eectricit demand that accompanied the recent goba

economic crisis reveaed sstem conflict between infleibe baseoad

power, especia nucear, and variabe renewabe sources, especiawind power, with wind operators tod to shut off their generators. In

Northern Spain and German, this uncomfortabe mi is aread

eposing the imits of the grid capacit. If Europe continues to support

nucear and coa power aongside a growth in renewabes, cashes wi

occur more and more, creating a boated, inefficient grid.

Despite the disadvantages stacked against renewabes, the have begun to

chaenge the profitabiit of oder pants. After construction costs, a wind

turbine is generating eectricit amost for free and without burning an fue.

Meanwhie, coa and nucear pants use epensive and high pouting fues.

Even where nucear pants are kept running and wind turbines are switched

off, conventiona energ providers are concerned. like an commodit,

oversupp reduces price across the market. In energ markets, this affects

nucear and coa too. We can epect more intense conflicts over access to

the grids over the coming ears. One eampe is the tension in German

over whether to etend the ifetime of nucear reactors b 8-14 ears. The

German renewabe energ federation (BEE) has warned its government

that this woud serious damage the further epansion of renewabe

energ. It predicts that renewabe energ coud provide haf of Germans

supp b 2020, but this woud on make economic sense if haf the

nucear and coa pants were phase-out b that date4.

This epains wh conventiona utiities are growing increasing critica

of a continued and stabe growth of renewabes beond 2020 5.

Figure 4A typical load curve throughout Europe, shows

electricity use peaking and falling on a daily basis

Time (hours/days)

Load(MW/GW)

DEMAND

4 Fraunhofer-IWES, Dnamische Simuation der Stromversorgung in Deutschand.

http://www.bee-ev.de/_downoads/pubikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simuation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdf

5 Reference to Eureectrics energ scenario.

http://www2.eureectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/PMFlMPlBJHEBKNOMIEDGEl

BEKHyDyC5K46SD6CFGI4OJ/Eureectric/docs/DlS/Power_Choices_FINAlREPORTCO

RRECTIONS-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E.pdf
http://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www2.eurelectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/PMFLMPLBJHEBKNOMIEDGELBEKHYDYC5K46SD6CFGI4OJ/Eurelectric/docs/DLS/Power_Choices_FINALREPORTCORRECTIONS-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E.pdfhttp://www2.eurelectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/PMFLMPLBJHEBKNOMIEDGELBEKHYDYC5K46SD6CFGI4OJ/Eurelectric/docs/DLS/Power_Choices_FINALREPORTCORRECTIONS-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E.pdfhttp://www2.eurelectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/PMFLMPLBJHEBKNOMIEDGELBEKHYDYC5K46SD6CFGI4OJ/Eurelectric/docs/DLS/Power_Choices_FINALREPORTCORRECTIONS-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www2.eurelectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/PMFLMPLBJHEBKNOMIEDGELBEKHYDYC5K46SD6CFGI4OJ/Eurelectric/docs/DLS/Power_Choices_FINALREPORTCORRECTIONS-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E.pdfhttp://www2.eurelectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/PMFLMPLBJHEBKNOMIEDGELBEKHYDYC5K46SD6CFGI4OJ/Eurelectric/docs/DLS/Power_Choices_FINALREPORTCORRECTIONS-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E.pdfhttp://www2.eurelectric.org/DocShareNoFrame/Docs/1/PMFLMPLBJHEBKNOMIEDGELBEKHYDYC5K46SD6CFGI4OJ/Eurelectric/docs/DLS/Power_Choices_FINALREPORTCORRECTIONS-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E-2010-402-0001-01-E.pdf


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The battleground for the grid

This graph summarises the wa we current supp power. The

baseoad power is at the bottom of the graph. The renewabe-

energ contribution forms a variabe aer reflecting the wa sun

and wind eves changes throughout the da. The top of the graph is

fied b gas and hdro power which can be switched on and off in

response to demand. This is sustainabe using weather forecasting

and cever grid management.

ct wt b m f

bt 25 t vb wb g.

hwv, t mbt mt g t m t 25 t

wb tt .

GP/MARKElREDONDO

imageThe PS10Concentrating Soar

Tower Pant inSevia, Spain.

Figure 5 Current supply system with low shares of fluctuating renewable energy

Time of day (hour)

0h 6h 12h 18h 24h

GW

lOAD CURVE

FlExIBlE POWER.

GRID OPERATORCOMBINES GAS &

HyDRO

FlUCTUATING

RE POWER

BASElOAD

a: M wb g wt t f b?

As renewabe energ suppies grow the wi eceed the demand at

some times of the da, creating surpus power. To a point, this can be

overcome b storing power, moving power between areas, shifting

demand during the da or shutting down the renewabe generators at

peak times. It does not work when renewabes eceed 50 percent

of the mi.

nt tb f 90-100 t wb tt.

Figure 6 Supply system with more than 25 percent fluctuating renewable energy baseload priority

Time of day (hour)

0h 6h 12h 18h 24h

GW

lOAD CURVE

SURPlUS RE - SEE

OPTIONS BElOW

BASElOAD PRIORITy: NO

CURTAIlMENT OF COAl

OR NUClEAR POWER

BASElOAD

a: M wb wt t f g?

If renewabe energ is given priorit to the grid, it cuts into the

baseoad power. This theoretica means that nucear and coa need

to run at reduced capacit or be entire turned off in peak supp

times (ver sunn or wind). Since there are technica and safet

imitations to the speed, scae and frequenc of changes in power

output for nucear and coa-CCS pants, this is not a soution.

T ffit.

Figure 7 Supply system with more than 25 percent fluctuating renewable energy renewable energy priority

Time of day (hour)

0h 6h 12h 18h 24h

GW

lOAD CURVE

RE PRIORITy:

CURTAIlMENT OF

BASElOAD POWER -

TECHNICAlly DIFFICUlTIF NOT IMPOSSIBlE


12/32

Planned phase out of nuclear and coal

If we want to reap the benefits of a continued and speed growth of

renewabe energ technoogies, the need priorit access to the grid

and we urgent have to phase out infleibe nucear.

The Energy [R]evolution is a detaied market anasis which shows that

we can reach 68 percent renewabe eectricit b 2030 and amost 100

percent b 2050. It aso as out a future scenario where eectricit

demand keeps growing, even with arge-scae efficienc, because of

eectric vehices dispacing cars. This 2030 renewabes target requires:

an amost entire (90 percent) phaseout of coa and nucear power

b 2030.

continued use of gas pants, which emit about haf the CO2 per

kWh compared to a coa pant.

T t: CO2 emissions in the eectricit sector can fa b 65

percent in 2030 compared to 2007 eves. Between 2030 and 2050

gas can be phased out and we reach an amost 100 percent

renewabe and CO2-free eectricit supp.

12 Greenpeace International Battle of the Grids International Polar oceans in peril and a planet at

risk

Battle of the grids: whats the big barrier? - continued

Switching off wind turbines and

giving priorit to nucear or coa isa fundamenta economic and

ecoogica mistake

paullanGrock/zeniT/Greenpeace

image Off shore windfarm, Middegrunden, Copenhagen, Denmark.


13/32


New research: renewable Europe 24/7

a w-tm is required to sove the probems of

competing tpes of eectricit supp. To find a soution Greenpeace

commissioned ground-breaking research that modes the whoe of

the European grid, running entire on the renewabe energ capacit

in 2050 combined with predicted weather patterns based on 30 ears

of detaied records. The foowing pages show how it can be done.

Implications of the European electricity system

The European eectricit grid is at east 50 ears od. Over time it has

connected more and more countries to the point where most of thegrid runs as if nationa eectricit sstems do not eist anmore6.

Integrated markets are now commonpace, ike the Centra Western

European region (CWE) composed of German, France, Netherands,

Begium and luemburg. Investors, name the arge European

utiities, make decisions based on their European saes strategies and

not nationa energ poicies. Investments in a new pant are not inked

to saes in that countr, but are marketed at east regiona.

Fm g tv, the grid shoud work to hep us

meet strong internationa targets to hat cimate change. The Energy

[R]evolution scenario provides an economica and technica

feasibe bueprint for phasing out nucear power and fossi fue pants,

based on European cimate targets. It combines top-down poicobjectives required with information from bottom-up projections of

what industries can deiver.

T t provides detaied steps to shift the eisting eectricit

deiver sstem to one based on 100 percent renewabe sources. It

defines the European grid etensions required to make this possibe.

Greenpeace is not the on organization advocating a European, top-

down approach. The recent draft communication on infrastructure

from the European Commission,7 focuses on grid requirements and

poic measures in order to support three poic objectives:

the European-wide integration of renewabe sources,

secure supp of eectricit, and

further integrate the eectricit market.

This report is an in-depth stud into how to deiver the first two objectives.

6 With some eceptions, ike the Iberian peninsua.

7 Energ Infrastructure Priorities. November 2010.

http://ec.europa.eu/energ/infrastructure/strateg/2020_en.htm

T t

A fu optimised grid, where 100 percent renewabes operate with

storage, transmission of eectricit to other regions, demand

management and curtaiment on when required. Demand

management is a technique that effective moves the highest peak

and flattens out the curve of eectricit use over a da.

Figure 8 The solution: an optimised system with over 90% renewable energy supply

Time of day (hour)

0h 6h 12h 18h 24h

GW

lOAD CURVE

WITH NO DSM

lOAD CURVE

WITH (OPTION 1 & 2)

RE POWER IMPORTED

FROM OTHER REGIONS &

RE POWER FROM

STORAGE PlANTS

SUPPly - WIND + SOlAR

SOlAR

WIND

BIOENERGy, HyDRO &

GEOTHERMAl

PAUllANGROCK/ZENIT/GP

image Geo-therma research driingin the Schorfheide done bthe Geoforschungszentrum

Potsdam, German.
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/infrastructure/strategy/2020_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/energy/infrastructure/strategy/2020_en.htm


14/32


New research: renewable Europe 24/7- continued

A model for Europes energy future

egt set out to mode the fluctuations in energ produced

from renewabes in the eectricit grid in 2030 and 2050. First, the

constructed a mode ofsupply, with the foowing inputs:

the European grid consisting of 224 nodes in EU, Norwa,

Switzerand and Bakan countries, represented b dots on the map

(centre spread).

historica weather data at each of those nodes for soar radiation

and wind, for ever hour over a period of 30 ears.

the renewabe and non-renewabe capacities at each node, estimated

for 2030 and 2050, based on the Energy [R]evolution scenario8.

The mode was used to cacuate the renewabe eectricit production

for each hour of the ear at each node and to show dnamica the

eectricit production in peaks and troughs over a whoe ear.

Second, the constructed a mode ofdemand, based on data from

grid operators9. The two modes were combined to cacuate:

whether supp matches demand for each hour and for each node.

when dispatchabe renewabes such as biomass or hdro pants

shoud be started as backup.

times of oversupp, e.g. when wind turbines have to be switched

off because its eectricit cannot be integrated in the grid due to

bottenecks (imited capacit to transport the eectricit to areas

with a net demand).

Optimisation

Greenpeace cas for a grid supporting around 68 percent renewabe

eectricit b 2030 and 100 percent b 2050.

To do this, the researchers took an optimisation approach, which

compares the costs of new grid capacit with making the production

mi more fleibe, improving the mi of renewabe and using storage

and demand management. Optimisation means both securing energ

supp 24/7, even with a high penetration of variabe sources and aso

imiting curtaiment. Curtaiment is when oca oversupp of free wind

and soar power has to be shut down because it cannot be

transferred to other ocations.

Optimising the sstem wi require more grid capacit be added than

strict needed to secure supp, in order to avoid curtaiment of wind

and soar eectricit. In the simuations, etra eectricit ines were

added step b step as ong as the cost of new infrastructure is ower

than the cost of curtaiing eectricit (see iustration). This wi create a

robust eectricit grid with higher securit of supp.

8 Greenpeace, EU-27 Energy [R]evolution. http://www.energbueprint.info/1233.0.htm

9 ENTSO-E statistics. https://www.entsoe.eu/inde.php?id=67

Figure 9 Sample illustration of nodes and interconnectors in Northern Europe

In between the nodes, the required

capacity of the electricity lines is

calculated to integrate renewable

sources in the European grid and

secure the supply at other nodes.

At each node, storage, backup

power and demand management

through smart grids are optimised.

Long-distance lines with high

capacity level-out variations in

local wind or solar production.

Hydro power in Norwayis used as

backup for other countries.

At each node renewable sources

are simulated based on historical

weather data. Generated power for

each hour during a full year is

calculated.

Source: Energynautics, Greenpeace.
http://www.energyblueprint.info/1233.0.htmlhttps://www.entsoe.eu/index.php?id=67http://www.energyblueprint.info/1233.0.htmlhttps://www.entsoe.eu/index.php?id=67


15/32


The optimisation process is:

make the non-renewabe capacit more fleibe b phasing out

nucear and coa pants, and reing instead on gas pants as

backup for variabe renewabe production.

add grid capacit to avoid curtaiment of wind and soar energ sources.

improve the mi of renewabe sources that compement each other.

improve the geographica spread of renewabe sources, either to

ocate renewabes in areas with high output (e.g. wind or sunn

areas) or cose to eectricit users to minimise transmission cost.

Pathways to 100 percent renewable energy 2050

Up to 2030, foowing this optimisation process, this stud defines a

cear pathwa to get to 68 percent renewabes integration, a 100bn

investment in grids and a 90 percent phase-out of nucear and coa

pants (see iustration).

The utimate approach (2050) wi depend on further technoogica

deveopments, poitica preferences and further research. Infrastructure

investments, especia eectricit grids, have ong ead-times for

investment decisions, so at east a decade is required for impementation.

Between 2030 and 2050, we have defined two different pathwas for

future deveopment:

lw G- ct e. This pathwa woud seek to produce

as much renewabe energ cose to areas with high eectricit

demand as possibe. It is particuar focused on the centre of

Europe; German, Netherands, Begium and France. Soar PV

capacit in these areas is increased, even if those soar panes

coud supp more eectricit if instaed in the south of Europe. This

approach woud increase the generation cost per kWh, but owers

the grid investment, which is imited to 74bn between 2030 and

2050. Securit of supp reies ess on the eectricit grid and ong

distance transmission. Instead the gas pipeines are used more

intensive to transfer gasified biomass from one region to theother, thereb optimising the use of biomass as a baancing

source. B gasifing biomass, the former gas pants can be

converted from natura gas to biogas, thereb avoiding stranded

investments in the gas sector.

hg G nt af.This approach woud insta a maimum

of renewabe energ sources in areas with the highest output,

especia soar power in the South of Europe and interconnections

between Europe with North Africa. This pathwa woud minimise the

cost to produce eectricit whie increasing the amount of eectricit

to be transferred over ong distances through the grid. The resut is a

higher interconnection cost (an investment of 581bn between 2030

and 2050), and strong securit of supp 24/7 because the supergrid capacit eceeds demand. It aso baances soar production in

the south and wind production in the north of Europe.

COURTESyOFABB

image loading sea cabes.

RESCURTAIlMENT

GRIDUPGRADE

BACK-UP

CAPACITy

STORAGE AND

DSM

RES UTIlISATION

SECURITy OF SUPPly

Figure 10 Optimisation process



16/32


Thenew

energymapforEurope

1GW

Storagenode

HVDCgridexisting

HVACgridexisting

HVDCgridnew/upgrade

HVAC&HVDCgridnew/upgrade

Windoffshore

Windonshore

Solar

Hydro

Biomass

OtherRE

Gas

Nuclear&coal

Figure13Ove

rviewofthefuturepowersystemw

ith68%renewableelectricityin20

30


17/32


Source:GreenpeaceInternationa.

Tht

Afuoptimisedgrid,where100percentrenewabes

operatewith

storage,

transm

issionofeectricittootherregions,de

mand

managementandcurtaimentonwhenrequired.

Dem

and

managementis

atechniquethateffectivemovesthe

highestpeak

andflattensou

tthecurveofeectricituseoverada.

Thismaprepr

esentsa68%renewableelectricity

systemin2030asanintermediate

steptowards100%renewableelectricityin2050

Tim

eofday(hour)

0h

6h

12h

18h

24h

GW

lOADCURVE

WITHNODSM

lOADCURVE

WITH(OPTION1&2)

REPOW

ERIMPORTED

FROMO

THERREGIONS&

REPOW

ERFROM

STORAG

EPlANTS

SUPPly

-WIND+SOlAR

SOlAR

WIND

BIOENERGy,

HyDRO&

GEOTHE

RMAl


18/32


New research: renewable Europe 24/7- continued

It shoud be stressed that between these low Grid and High Grid

scenarios after 2030, there is a arge area of feasibiit to combine

different eves of grid deveopment and renewabe capacities. Over

the net decade, European poic needs to be better formuated to

provide a cearer vision for the energ mi after 2030 period.

Both 2050 scenarios confirm the singe scenario for 2030. In either

the low or High Grid scenarios for post-2030, the 100bn grid

investment before 2030 is required anwa, even though the timing

might differ sight and some of the grid investments panned in the

period 2010-30 might be deaed after 2030 in the low Grid

scenario. In terms of investments in production capacit, the

capacities panned b 2030 are required in both post-2030 scenarios.

The low Grid scenario wi require a continued strong growth of

renewabes within Europe after 2030, whie in the High Grid scenario,

growth after 2030 wi sow down in Europe due to increasing imports

of renewabe eectricit from North Africa.

10The generation capacities for Norwa, Switzerand and the Bakan countries are

incuded in the mode, but are omitted in this graph to make the data more comparabe

with other studies. Grid investments are for Europe.

Figure 11 Pathways to 100 percent renewable electricity in 2050

10

2007

16%

pt mx eu:

+ loGo / GW

Wind: 57GW

Soar PV: 5GW

Soar CSP: -

Hdro: 140GW

Biomass: 10GW

Geotherma: 1GW

Ocean: -

Gas: 105GW

Coa: 148GW

Nucear: 132GW

2020

40%

pt mx eu:

+ loGo / GW

Wind: 251GW

Soar PV: 144GW

Soar CSP: 15GW

Hdro: 155GW

Biomass: 13GW

Geotherma: 5GW

Ocean:3GW

Gas: 122GW

Coa: 196GW

Nucear: 59GW

Gwt res+pt B

Feasibility

area

lw g g

hg g nt af t

2030

70%

pt mx eu:

+ loGo / GW

Wind: 376GW

Soar PV: 241GW

Soar CSP: 43GW

Hdro: 157GW

Biomass: 77GW

Geotherma: 34GW

Ocean: 21GW

Gas: 228GW

Coa: 17GW

Nucear: 17GW

pt:

90% phase-out of baseoad (nuc+coa)

Massive uptake RES

Increase fleibe gas capacit

pt:

Increase RES cose to

demand centres

Optimise RES mi

Transition from natura gas to biogas

pt:

Minimise production costs

More soar in South, more

wind in wind regions

lower overa production costs

G:

Super grid to baance EUR regions

Medium interconnection with

North Africa

Higher grid investments

G:

Gas grid (biogas) to

baance EUR regions

Minimise grid investments

G:

European-wide priorit RES

Missing inks (HVAC)

Offshore wind grids:

First step of on shore super grid

2050

100%

Result:99.5%

renewable

electricity

Result:

98%

renewable

electricity

pt mx eu:

Wind: 667GW

Soar PV: 974GW

Soar CSP: 99GW

Hdro: 163GW

Biomass: 336GW

Geotherma: 96GW

Ocean: 66GW

Imported: 0GW

G vtmt (2030):

AC: 20bn

DC offshore: 29bn

DC onshore: 49bn

Tt: 98b

G vtmt (2030-2050):

AC: 39bn

DC: 542bn

Tt: 581b

G vtmt (2030-2050):

AC: 10bn

DC: 64bn

Tt: 74b

pt mx eu:

Wind: 497GW

Soar PV: 898GW

Soar CSP: 99GW

Hdro: 165GW

Biomass: 224GW

Geotherma: 96GW

Ocean: 66GW

Imported RES: 60GW

Source: Energnautics, Greenpeace.


19/32


Parameters of this study

This simuation of eectricit production within the entire European grid

has some imitations due to the compeit of cacuations required in

deveoping the concepts put forward here. In particuar, etra stud is

recommended in the foowing areas, which were outside the

boundaries of this research:

Idea, the resuts from the three scenarios described in this report

shoud be fed back into the Energy [R]evolution scenario, in order

to define overa economic costs, job creation and the interaction

with the other energ sectors such as transport, heating andindustr. Further integration between dnamic modeing as in this

report and market scenarios such as in the Energy [R]evolution,

woud optimise overa economic costs.

The 2030 scenario does not incude an optimisation of generation

capacit cose to demand. It is thus more in ine with the 2050

High Grid scenario. We can assume it actua underestimates the

potentia renewabe investments for 2030 in the centre of Europe

where there is high net demand over the ear and resuting net

imports of eectricit from both Northern and Southern Europe.

Further, the renewabe capacities aocated to each countr, or

each node, in the 2030 mode shoud not be regarded as nationa

targets. More research is required to define a more optimaaocation of renewabe capacities to each node for 2030.

Power capacities used to model the European grid

In the Energy [R]evolution advanced scenario in 2030 there is

949GWe instaed renewabe energ capacit producing 68 percent of

a eectricit. B 2050, the instaed capacit further increases to

1,518GWe, supping 97 percent of the eectricit.

These EU-27 capacities, which are used as input for this report, are

European-wide and not aocated to each EU member state. To create

our mode based on 224 nodes in the EU-27, Norwa, Switzerand

and the Bakan states, the Energy [R]evolution resuts were aocated

to each node and etended to the non-EU countries. This was donebased on iterature stud11 and further modeing b Energnautics.

The 2050 low Grid scenario, appies some aternative dimensions to

the Energy [R]evolution outcomes. In particuar, an increase of PV and

wind capacities, and an increase of the capacit of biomass pants,

whie keeping the annua avaiabe sustainabe biomass constant.

11 DlR, Trans-CSP. http://www.dr.de/tt/desktopdefaut.asp/

12The capacities for Norwa, Switzerand and the Bakan countries, which are incuded in

the mode, are omitted in this graph to make the data more comparabe with other studies

on the EU-27.

Note:These capacities are used to simuate eectricit production at each node in the computer mode of the European Grid for each hour in the ear based on historica weather data (soar radiation, wind speeds).B 2030 90 percent of the nucear and coa pants have been phased out. After 2030, gas pants are gradua converted from natura gas to biogas, so the biomass capacit mentioned for 2050 consists for a argepart converted gas pants.

Source: Greenpeace, Energnautics.

Figure 12 Power capacities for EU-27 used for simulations in this report12

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Coal

197

17 0 0

GWe

Nuclear

132

17 0 0

Oil

67

10 0 0

Gas

181228

2727

Wind

57

376

497

667

Solar-PV

5

241

898974

Ocean

0216666

Hydro

140157163163

Solar-CSP

0439999

Biomass

2077

224

336

Geothermal

1349696

Import

000

60

2007

2030 GRID

2050 HIGH GRID

2050 lOW GRID

COURTESyOFABB

image Cose up ofunderwater sea cabe.
http://www.dlr.de/tt/desktopdefault.aspx/http://www.dlr.de/tt/desktopdefault.aspx/


20/32


STEP 1 More lines to deliver renewable electricity where

it is needed:

The first step in our methodoog to deveop a 100 percent renewabe

eectricit sstem is to add more eectricit ines to the base-ine of the

eisting high-votage grid of 2010. lines wi be needed especia

from areas with overproduction, e.g. south of Europe in the summer,

to areas with a high demand ike German. This aows a more

efficient use of the instaed soar power. In winter months, the

opposite coud happen, when a arge oversupp of wind power is

transported from the north of Europe south to popuation centres. It is

common for both wind speeds and soar radiation to var across

Europe concurrent, so interconnecting the variabe renewabes in

effect smoothes out the variations at an one ocation. Adding more

grid infrastructure increases securit of supp and makes better use

of renewabe energ sources. It aso means backup capacit in

Europe can be used more economica because biomass, hdro or

gas pants in one region can be transferred to another region.

In this first step, ines are added to a point that is caed the Base

Mode, eectricit supp is secured in the whoe of Europe 24 hours a

da, seven das a week.

This technoog can be used as an overaing network structure to

transmit buk power, i.e. arge capacit, over ong distances to the

areas where energ is needed. The ines have rough haf the

transmission osses of more conventiona High Votage Aternating

Current (HVAC). Over onger distances (more than 500km) the

HVDC ines are more economic but the cost of converters goes

up.13Another advantage of HVDC cabes is that the make it easier

to move the entire super grid underground. Whie this approach wibe more cost, foowing eisting transporting routes,aing the

cabes aong motorwas or raiwa tracks can aow a fast ro-out

of the HVDC super grid infrastructure and reduce the visua impact

of the instaation.

Box 3 High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC)

Six steps to build the grid for renewable Europe 24/7

13 Renewables 24/7: Infrastructure needed to save the Climate. Greenpeace 2010.

http://www.greenpeace.org/internationa/en/pubications/reports/renewabes-24-7/


Figure 14 Renewable energy supply and demand in an Italian town and UK during the same period

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

00:00

11:00

22:00

09:00

20:00

07:00

18:00

05:00

16:00

03:00

14:00

01:00

12:00

23:00

10:00

21:00

08:00

19:00

06:00

17:00

04:00

15:00

02:00

13:00

00:00

11:00

22:00

09:00

20:00

07:00

18:00

MW

GEOTHERMAl

CSP

BIOMASS

HyDRO WITH STORAGE

RUN OF RIVER HyDRO SCHEME

WAVE & TIDAl

OFFSHORE WIND

ONSHORE WIND

SOlAR PV

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

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ONSHORE WIND

SOlAR PV
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/renewables-24-7/http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/renewables-24-7/


21/32

Long distance transport to stop energy loss

The Base Mode focuses on on securing the supp of eectricit

around the cock. Our mode reveaed the unepected probem that

ver arge amounts of variabe renewabe sources cannot awas be

deivered because of bottenecks in the grid. This probem occurs

when periods of high wind or sun combine with ow demand oca.

Because this oversupp cannot be used in the same region, wind

turbines or soar pants have to be shut down.

In the Base Mode, renewabe osses tota 346TWh per ear, or 12

percent of what these energ sources coud have produced withoutan constraints in the grid. This represents economic osses of

34.6bn/ear.

However, renewabe osses can be reduced b transporting eectricit

over onger distances in Europe from areas of oversupp to those

with a net demand for eectricit. The iustration beow shows a arge

oversupp of renewabe sources at an Itaian node, whie there is an

undersupp in the UK over the same period. Eectricit transmission

from the Itaian node to the UK wi smooth the differences and make

better economic use of the instaed renewabe sources.

STEP 2 Priority for renewable energy on the European grid to

reduce losses

The Base Mode assumes a cear priorit access for renewabe energ

at each of the nodes. This reflects the situation in man European

countries which give some eve of priorit at the nationa eve.

However, there are no cear priorit rues at the European eve,

incuding on the interconnections between countries. For eampe,

wind turbines in German current do not have a priorit over nucear

power pants in France in providing energ to the European grid.

This stud aso eamines the effect of changing the rues to give

priorit to renewabe sources throughout Europe, incuding on a

interconnections, which does not require an additiona investment.

Under this scenario, the use of renewabe sources woud increasedramatica and constraining osses woud be massive reduced (see

Figure 15). Just b improving reguation this wa, without putting

securit of supp at risk, renewabe osses can be reduced from 12

to 4 percent, which woud mean an annua saving of 248TWh of

eectricit or 24.8bn/ear.

Under such a new dispatch method, energ production from soar PV

and wind woud increase b 10 percent and 32 percent in 2030 over

the base scenario without priorit dispatch. And with increased

generation from cean sources, generation from fossi-fue sources wi

drop even more. This is particuar noticeabe for power generated b

gas, which woud be 5 percent ower than in the Base Scenario.

For a 100 percent renewabe 2050, priorit rues are needed between

renewabe sources. Variabe renewabes such as wind and soar PV

wi get priorit over dispatchabe renewabes such as stored hdro or

biomass, which wi serve as back-up.

STEP 3Additional lines to allow renewable energy through

the bottlenecks

Even with a cear priorit dispatch of renewabe sources at the

European eve, there is sti a significant eve of renewabe osses,

especia for offshore wind which oses 17 percent of what coud be

produced without an bottenecks in the grid. For a renewabe

sources this oss represents 98TWh, 4 percent of tota, and an

economic oss of amost 10bn per ear.

To channe these oversuppies out of their regions woud require

further grid etension, in particuar strengthening ines between the

north and the south of Europe. There is aso a need for more ines

between arge cities, such as london, and the offshore wind grid.

To dea with this effect, Energnautics studied what eve grids shoud be

upgraded to in order to imit the osses of renewabe eectricit

production due to bottenecks. B 2030, an upgrade of 28bn,

assuming the most epensive option) woud reduce the osses from 4 to

1 percent, or a net saving of 66TWh per ear or 6.5bn per ear. This

eve of additiona investment in the grid woud be recovered in just a few

ears. Offshore wind osses woud be most significant reduced, from

17 percent to on 4 percent. A simiar approach is foowed for 2050.

Tota investment required woud be around 98bn up to 2030 and an

additiona 74bn or 581bn up to 2050 under the low and High Grid

scenarios. This aow for the more epensive approach of underground

ines and new technoogies such as high-votage direct current (HVDC,

see bo). Infrastructure ike this has a 40 ear ifetime, so for 2030 this

investment equates to ess than 1 percent of the tota eectricit cost14.

GP/DEANSEWEll

image Wave powertechnoog using acoumn of water to

drive a turbine.


Source: Energnautics 2011.

Figure 15 Level of constrained electricity from renewable

sources in 2030 (%)

without priorit for

renewabe energ (step 1)

with priorit for

renewabe energ (step 2)

optimised scenario with

additiona grids (step 3)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

12

4

1

14 Cacuations, based on 3553TWh/ in 2030, 98bn grid cost and an eectricit cost of

100/MWh.


22/32


Six steps to build the grid for renewable Europe 24/7- continued

STEP 4 Demand management and smart grids to reduce

transmission losses (2030 only)

Demand management and storage (step 5) have a ver simiar impact

on the eectricit sstem. Demand-management shifts some demand

from periods with a ow supp of variabe renewabes to periods with

a higher supp, whie storage can store eectricit from oversupp of

variabe renewabes to be used during periods with an undersupp.

Aso referred to as demand-side management (DSM), this approach

makes use of the range of technoog in a smart grid (see definition

ist in introduction). Demand management is aread common practicein man areas of industr, but coud be further etended to

househods through grids management technoogies. For eampe, it

is possibe to communicate with refrigerators so the dont run

compressors during the tpica peak demand of 6pm. Across whoe

districts this can make a difference to the demand or oad curve.

Demand-side management aso heps to imit the osses in

transporting eectricit over ong distances (which escapes as heat).

Demand management simuations in this stud are on done for

2030. For 2050, storage simuations are used to stud different eves

of demand management. Given the simiarities between simuations

for demand-management and storage, this simpification is egitimate.

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Figure 16A typical load curve throughout Europe, shows

electricity use peaking and falling on a daily basis

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image Off shore windfarm, Middegrunden, Copenhagen, Denmark.



23/32


STEP 5Adding storage in the system (2030 and 2050)

Another essentia wa to even supp and demand is to add storage

capacit, for eampe through pumped hdro pants, batteries from

eectric vehices or moten sat storage for concentrating soar power.

Whie storage is reative epensive, this stud optimised the cost

baance between investing in storage and etending the grids. There

needs be a baance between etending the grid and adding more

storage. This stud used cost optimisation to determine that point.

As mentioned under step four, storage simuations are aso used to

stud the impact of demand-management in 2050. Storage is factoredat the European eve, thus oversupp at one node can be stored at

another, and this stored eectricit can then be used as backup at an

node in the European grid, a ong as transport capacit is avaiabe.

Storage and demand-management combined have a rather imited

impact on the 2030 high-votage grid. We can assume some impact

at the distribution eve (the more oca grid), but this is not studied in

this report. This reative ow impact b 2030 is a consequence of the

98bn investment in grids, as modeed in this report, which aows

the smooth integration of up to 68 percent renewabes, as ong as 90

percent of baseoad coa and nucear are phased out.

However for 2050, integration of cose to 100 percent renewabe

power is far more chaenging for the eectricit sstem than

68 percent in 2030, and storage and demand-management pa a

substantia roe in baancing supp and demand. Especia in the

low Grid scenario, which emphases a high regiona production cose

to demand centres, storage and demand-management can decrease

the curtaiment of renewabe eectricit from 13 percent to 6 percent.

We assume that b 2050, it wi be possibe to use a significant part of

this curtaied eectricit either for storage or other eectricit use.

STEP 6 Security of supply: electricity 24/7 even if the wind

doesnt blow

Adding ines, storage and demand management a increase securit

of supp because even under an etreme weather event of ow wind

combined with ow soar during winter, ecess wind power from

another region can be imported. To test the modeed sstem, the

most etreme weather events over the ast 30 ears were identified

and appied to the cacuation. This is tpica a winter period with ow

wind, when soar radiation is aso ow and demand is tpica high.

The mode can then te if the optima sstem can withstand the test

or if more eectricit ines woud have to be added.

For the 2030 and 2050 modes, the simuations prove that the

optimised mode is robust enough to withstand even the most

etreme cimatic events.

lANGROCK/ZENIT/GP

image Wind turbines andeectricit cabes.

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ergyinMWh

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Figure 17 Utilization of storage at a location in Spain

SURPlUS

POWER

PV PEAK WIND PEAK

lACK OF POWER

RES

STORAGE lEVEl

DEMAND



24/32


The inflexible, dirty energy model for 2030

As part of this stud, Energnautics was asked to aso deveop a Dirt

Mode, to find out what woud happen if we tr to maintain the eectricit

sstem with coa and nucear pants running in a baseoad mode.

This mode assumes haf of the gas capacit in the Energy [R]evolution

scenario has been dispaced b infleibe coa and nucear pants or an

additiona 114GW. This represents the equivaent of some 114 arge coa

or nucear pants of 1,000MW. The tota infleibe baseoad capacit is

thus 148GW, cose to todas 158GW (2007).

As previous discussed, running the infleibe coa and nucear pants as

baseoad poses probems for the arge-scae integration of variaberenewabe sources. This part of the research was done to investigate

caims b some nucear utiities that nucear and coa can perfect

compement renewabe sources.

It is argued b some nucear utiities that technica adaptations of nucear

reactors coud improve their fleibiit15. However, increasing nucear

fleibiit decreases the safet of the reactor and there are technica

imitations to the speed and frequenc of changes in its power output.

Furthermore, assuming that nucear and coa pants woud theoretica

fu fit in and compement variabe renewabes, as argued b E.ON, the

economics of nucear and coa woud deteriorate dramatica. The

average oad factor for a hpothetica fleibe nucear power pant woud

be around 50 percent b 2030. This means that investing toda in a newnucear power pant with a price tag of some 6bn woud resut in major

economic osses (see more detais in the chapter Impications for

investors). The infleibiit of a ver epensive nucear reactor or coa

pant with carbon capture is therefore not on a technica and safet

issue, but aso a financia probem.

The stud found that even b keeping nucear and coa cose to

todas eves woud have a significant negative economic impact on

the overa eectricit sstem. Due to their infleibiit, more renewabe

eectricit woud be ost, because the eectricit sstem cannot

effective respond to variations in the supp of renewabe eectricit.

losses are estimated at 316TWh per ear or 32bn per ear. The

sstem cost of more coa and nucear power in just four ears woud

be higher than the tota cost for grid upgrades of 98bn in the Energy

[R]evolution scenario unti 2030.

The prospect of a steadi growing renewabe energ share in the

production mi is therefore increasing the investment risks for nucear

power. Even if nucear utiities woud succeed in sowing down the further

growth of renewabes, in order to protect their vested interests in nucear

and coa, a high oad factor remains high unike. On reckess

investors wi trust estimations of a oad factor of 85 percent over the

reactors whoe ifetime, as presented b nucear project deveopers.

Even though the industr ma caim that nucear energ has a roe to

pa in Europe, this is far from reait. Two flagship nucear power

projects being buit in Finand and France are facing severe technica

probems, causing major deas and cost overruns of some 3bn each.

large nucear utiities such as RWE and E.ON are now caing for

massive subsidies in the UK before engaging in another epensive

nucear reactor project.

15 IER, Vertrgichkeit von erneuerbaren Energien und Kernenergie im Erzugungsportfoio.

Commissioned b E.ON, 2009.


25/32


Case studies

German case study

German produced 16.1 percent of its eectricit demand from

renewabe sources in 2009, with wind power providing 6.5 percent of

the demand. As such German more than doubed its renewabe

energ share in on si ears, up from 7.5 percent in 200316.

The German Federation of Renewabe Energ (BEE) projects that a

continuation of this strong renewabe growth in German woud

further increase its share from 16.1 percent to 47 percent in 2020, or

amost haf of a eectricit demand17. Due to the high share of

variabe wind and soar PV in the 2020 renewabes mi (68 percent),its integration requires adaptations to the eectricit sstem.

Simuations b the German research institute Fraunhofer-IWES,

commissioned b BEE, demonstrate that b 2020 eectricit

production from renewabe sources coud eceed tota demand in

German during periods with high winds or soar radiation. An

impressive 47% of the annua out-put woud come from renewabe

sources; production coud thus rise to 70GW, whie tota demand

woud on be 58GW. The 12GW etra power coud be stored in

pumping stations or be eported to other countries (See Figure 18)18.

Fraunhofer aso cacuated that b 2020, about haf of the eisting

baseoad capacit (nucear and coa) in German woud have to be shut

down in order to enabe the smooth integration of the renewabe eectricit.

These findings are in sharp contradiction with the decision b the

German government of September 2010 to etend the ifetime of

German's nucear reactors b an average of 12 ears (eight ears for

reactors commissioned up to 1980, and 14 ears for the ounger

pants). This ifetime etension is however not et set in stone and wi

be ega chaenged b Greenpeace and severa German states at

the countrs Constitutiona Court.

DAVISON/GREENPEACE

image Wind turbineconstruction ard, UK.

Source: Fraunhofer-IWES, 2009.

Figure 18 Simulation of the electricity generation from renewable sources in Germany in 2020 for one week.

On Sunday, total renewable production exceeds total demand, and is used for storage and export

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16 Federa Ministr for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nucear Safet (BMU),

Renewabe Energ Sources in Figures - Nationa and Internationa Deveopment. June 2010.

http://www.erneuerbare-

energien.de/fies/engish/pdf/appication/pdf/broschuere_ee_zahen_en_bf.pdf

17 Fraunhofer-IWES, Dnamische Simuation der Stromversorgung in Deutschand. Im

Auftrag des BEE. December 2009. http://www.bee-

ev.de/_downoads/pubikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-

Simuation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdf

18 Ibid.
http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/broschuere_ee_zahlen_en_bf.pdfhttp://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/broschuere_ee_zahlen_en_bf.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/broschuere_ee_zahlen_en_bf.pdfhttp://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/broschuere_ee_zahlen_en_bf.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdfhttp://www.bee-ev.de/_downloads/publikationen/studien/2010/100119_BEE_IWES-Simulation_Stromversorgung2020_Endbericht.pdf


26/32


Case studies - continued

Spanish case study

The Spanish renewabe eectricit sector has grown impressive in

recent ears. Wind power capacit more than doubed in four ears

from 8.7GW in 2005 to 18.7GW b the end of 200919. Wind

produced 16% in 2010, and a renewabes together produced more

eectricit (35%)20 than nucear power (21%) and coa (8%) together. It

is projected that if renewabe sources continue this growth rate, the

woud supp 50 percent b 2020.

However, whie the market sti showed a ver dnamic growth over

2005 and 2006 with around 3GW of wind power instaed each ear,growth since has sowed down. For 2010, it is epected to remain at

around 1GW21. A combination of government caps on new

instaations and high uncertaint of reguation is to bame.

The actions of the Spanish government to sow the growth of

renewabes came after criticism from the arge utiities. These

companies have eperienced a drop in profits of their coa and gas

pants through a combination of a decreasing eectricit demand due

to the economic crisis, growth of new renewabe supp and an

infleibe nucear baseoad production. Whie gas pants capacit

increased b 6 percent in 2009, their annua output was reduced b

14 percent, thereb owering their average oad factor to 38 percent.

The infleibiit of nucear power output is cear iustrated b the

Nov. 9th 2010 event with a record-high wind production reaching

amost 15GW of power and covering amost haf of a Spanish

eectricit demand. As can be seen in the graph representing the

eectricit production of that da, the strong increase of renewabe

energ production was confronted with an infleibe (unchanged)

nucear baseoad production which forced gas pants to constrain

amost a of their energ output. Repeating simiar events over the ast

two ears, wind turbines had to be stopped, not because of grid

imitations to transport wind power to demand centres, but because

of oversupp caused b the must run status of Spains nucearpants22. It is estimated that for 2010, some 200GWh of wind

eectricit wi be curtaied b giving priorit to nucear power23.

This probem caused b the infleibiit of nucear pants wi inevitab

increase over the net ears with the further growth of wind and soar

power. As demonstrated in our simuations for 2030 in this report, a

swift phase out of baseoad power is needed to avoid economic

osses in the eectricit sstem. If this does not happen, it is the free,

cean renewabe eectricit which has to be constrained.

19 Red Eectrica, The Spanish Eectricit Sstem 2009.

20 Red Eectrica, The Spanish Eectricit Sstem, Preiminar report 2010.

21 Power In Europe 588, Nov. 15th 2010.

22 In the ear hours of Dec. 30th 2009, wind power covered 54.1 percent of eectricit

demand and wind power had to be curtaied b 600MW, giving priorit to nucear

production.

23 Red Eectrica, Dificutades de integracin eica. Noviembre 2010.

Source: Red Eectrica, 2009.

Figure 19 Electricity supply on 9 November 2010 in the spanish system showing over 50% of demand covered by wind power

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27/32


Implications for investors

One of the ke concusions from this research is that in the coming

decades, traditiona power pants wi have ess and ess space to run

in baseoad mode. With increasing penetration of variabe generation

from wind and photovotaics in the eectricit grid, the remaining part

of the sstem wi have to run in more oad foowing mode, fiing the

immediate gap between demand and production.

This means the economics of baseoad pants ike nucear and coa

wi change fundamenta as more variabe generation is introduced

to the eectricit grid.

Gas-fired power pants have reative ow fied costs (constructionrepresents about 15 percent to 20 percent of power generation cost)

and high margina costs, about 60 percent of generating cost is

defined b the cost of fue, i.e. natura gas. This means that gas pants

can remain economic even at ower capacit factors beow 50 percent.

Ver much opposite is the situation of nucear reactors, and to some

etent aso coa (ignite, or an coa run with carbon capture and

storage). With nucear power pants, the fied costs are high and

represent 65 percent to 80 percent of the generation costs, whereas the

margina costs are around 15 percent to 20 percent. The immediate

impication is that whie it ma be profitabe to operate a nucear reactor

at baseoad mode 85 percent or more time of the ear, its economic

performance dramatica deteriorates if the oad drops even b severapercent, not to mention beow 50 percent.

The 2030 simuations in this report show that with 68 percent renewabe

eectricit, the average annua oad factor of fleibe gas pants is 46

percent. Infleibe nucear and coa are phased out b 90 percent. If

hpothetica, nucear or coa pants coud be made as fleibe as gas

pants, the woud sti have to fit in the sstem and their oad factor woud

be imited to ess than 50 percent b 2030 and further decreasing

afterwards. This means that an profitabiit of new nucear or coa pants

woud compete evaporate.

An investment mode deveoped b PwC, commissioned b

Greenpeace in 2008, based on standard parameters of eectricit

market in Europe, cear shows this effect. The net present vaue

(NPV) of a new reactor is minus 2.3 bn for a tpica power pant of

1,000MW and a capacit factor of 85 percent. This means an investor

woud ose more than 2 bn buiding this new reactor. If the capacit

factor drops to 33 percent, operating for one third of the ear, this

woud more than doube the financia oss, the net present vaue

reaches minus 5 bn.

The assumption of this cacuation is a 1,000MW power pant with a

4,000 Euro per kW overnight capita cost. B comparison, the

financia risk for this size of power generator running on other tpes of

fossi fues are shown in the tabe beow.

This is a big warning to an investors considering construction of new

nucear power pants. Net present vaue is based on a ifetime of 40 or

50 ears and it is cear that if oad factors drop significant in 2020 or

2030, there woud be massive stranded assets and the investment

woud never be paid back.

kaTedaVison/Greenpeace

image Cooing Towers at DidcotPower Station, UK.

Table 2 Financial risk for this size of power

generator running on other types of fossil fuels

G t 85% t

G t 33% t

c t 85% t

c t 33% t

npV: z

npV: -708 m

npV: - 240 m

npV: - 1,065 m

Source: Greenpeace cacuation using the investment mode and parameters b [PWC 2008].

Figure 20 Net Present Value of an investment to a new 1,000

MW power plant, based on different technologies, assuming85 % load factors (and 25 % for wind)

0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

-5.0

-6.0

o w

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G

NPV per MW

c n

Source: Greenpeace cacuation using the investment mode and parameters b [PWC 2008].

Source: Own cacuation using the investment mode and parameters b [PWC 2008].

Figure 21 Net Present Value of an investment to a new 1,000

MW power plant, based on different technologies, assuming33 % load factor (and 25 % for wind)

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708miion

1,0

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56miion


28/32


Policy recommendations

To drive a sustainabe, robust and cost-effective power sstem, the

EU poic framework shoud aim to usher in the maimum share of

renewabe energ possibe b 2050. The transition of the power

sstem shoud be guided b overarching principes of fleibiit,

sstem efficienc and transparenc.

Greenpeace cas for the foowing steps to modernise Europes

eectricit sstem.

1. Promote new renewable energy and a flexible power

generation mix

a b g f wb w

The EU has aread adopted a Renewabe Energ Directive. An effective

impementation of this is required to create a more sustainabe power

sstem. Stabe, ong-term nationa support poicies are required to

encourage renewabe energ generation across a European countries.

a flxb gt mx

To compement variabe renewabe energ sources, Europes energ

poic shoud focus on the deveopment of fleibe power generation

capacities, incuding the dispatchabe renewabe power sources and

natura gas, as we as cost-effective storage technoogies. In order to

support the investment in more fleibe (gas) power pants,Greenpeace recommends introducing a capacit bonus sstem.

The intra-da rescheduing of power generation shoud take into

account a power generators, incuding the ess fleibe ones.

Congestion charges shoud reflect the sstem inefficiencies that

infleibe generation (nucear and coa) cause in the network.

2. A truly European network and market management

ntw vmt t tt gwg f

wb g

The panning and deveopment of Europes power sstem shoud be

done with an overa view to integrating increasing shares ofrenewabe energ sources.

The European Transmission Sstem Operators (ENTSO-E) Ten year

Network Deveopment Pans shoud reflect the renewabe energ

forecasts in ine with the Renewabe Energ Directive.

At the same time, an independent European bod shoud be created

to oversee and coordinate European grid panning and deveopments.

Its tasks shoud incude aso the deveopment and anasis of ong-

term scenarios and network deveopment options.

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A European-wide ega framework is required to buid and operate a cross-

border transmission sstem. It shoud incude a reguator approach forinternationa transmission and continue to harmonise network codes.

Europe aso requires

green peace battle of the grids

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