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Chairperson of Green Forum Foundation Sweden Global Green Coordinator Eva Goës

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Page 1: Green forum 111207

Chairperson of Green ForumFoundation Sweden

Global Green Coordinator

Eva Goës

Page 2: Green forum 111207

1980 Referendum1986 Before after Chernobyl 1988 MP1990 Osaka1995 Moruroa

Page 3: Green forum 111207

New law June 2010

Allows building new nuclear power plants on the three places in Sweden

10 new reactors

Direct or indirect government subsidies prohibited

Legislation not completed

Page 4: Green forum 111207

1990-ies

5 of 12 reactors stoppedAccident with insulation material in the filterHearing in the Parliament about the risks and the costs1990-ies No new era for nuclear power. The climate change

Page 5: Green forum 111207

2006-07-25 Forsmark I

• Vor einer Woche kam es zu einer Beinahe-Katastrophe im schwedischem Atomreaktor Forsmark I. Nach einem Kurzschluss fielen dort mehrere Sicherheitssysteme aus. Ein Reaktorkonstrukteur hält es für Zufall, dass keine Kernschmelze erfolgte

Page 6: Green forum 111207

2011 forgot a wet vacuum cleaner in Ringhals reactor

• Fire• 7 months stop• Costs 1 800 000 000 SEK= 180 000 000 €

Page 7: Green forum 111207

Surplus of electricity in Sweden to 2020 th

• Nobody knows the costs for building new reactors

• After Fukushima just 8 % wants to buy nuclear energy in Sweden

• 83 % wants to buy renewable energy

Page 8: Green forum 111207

2000 Village in Gomel, Belarus

Page 9: Green forum 111207

Citibank group analysis

• The enormous technical and financial risks involved in the construction and operation of new nuclear power plants make them prohibitive for private investors.

• Are the taxpayers willing to pay again including all risks?

Page 10: Green forum 111207

- High construction costs - long delays in building- extended periods of depreciation of equipment inherent to the construction and operation of new power plants- lack of guarantees for prices of electricity

Page 11: Green forum 111207

Adding to these

• The global meltdown• Consequent cautious behavior of investors• Fiscal and revenue difficulties of governments

in the industrialised countries

• "the risks faced by developers … are so large and variable that individually they could each bring even the largest utility company to its knees financially"

Page 12: Green forum 111207

Citibank report

• Most governments in industrialised countries today have only "sought to limit the planning risk" for investors.

• But, while it is "important for encouraging developers to bring forward projects, [planning] is the least important risk financially," the survey goes on.

Page 13: Green forum 111207

Citibank report

Environmental activists would add safety issues as another major risk – both the handling of highly radioactive nuclear waste and the likelihood of accidents at nuclear power stations

Page 14: Green forum 111207

Citibank report

According to the paper, the costs of constructing a new nuclear power plant range between 2,500 to 3,500 euros (3,420 US dollars) per kilowatt hour.

Page 15: Green forum 111207

Citibank report

• To meet such costs, the operator would need a guarantee of constant electricity prices around 65 euros (88.9 dollars) per MW/hour for a long period of time.

• "We see very little prospect of these costs falling and every likelihood of them rising further"

Page 16: Green forum 111207

Christoph Pistner, German Institute for Applied Ecology

• Most power plants have to be running for at least 20 years to reach the operation period free of depreciation and impairments costs.

• Only after this period, a nuclear power plant starts yielding returns.

Page 17: Green forum 111207

Christoph Pistner said

• In addition - developers of nuclear power plants are confronted with yet another risk:

• "The industry disposes of little references on the buildings costs of new nuclear power plants because there are very few units in construction."

Page 18: Green forum 111207

“The uncertainties linked to the construction costs of such plants have been magnified by the global financial crisis, which makes such huge investments unlikely.

“For a nuclear power plant of 1,600 MW, you need at least eight years, and a construction budget of up to six billion euros (8.2 billion dollars). That means that the investor of a new nuclear power plant would start seeing some money only eight years after she invested a huge amount of money."

Thibaut Madelin,French energy expert says that:

Page 19: Green forum 111207

Construction delays

Figures by IAEA say that construction delays jumped from 64 months to 146 months between 1976 and 2008.

“If the construction of a nuclear power plant lasts more than 10 years, 120 months, the project becomes a financial catastrophe"

Page 20: Green forum 111207

Commentary by IAEA

S Squassoni, researcher at the U.S. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, concluded“the financial crisis and the construction costs constitute almost insurmountable obstacles to the renaissance of nuclear power”

Page 21: Green forum 111207

• "The current economic crisis could make financing nuclear power plants particularly difficult."

• "Financing costs account for between 25 and 80 percent of the total cost of construction because nuclear power plants take much longer to build than alternatives."

Squassoni wrote:

Page 22: Green forum 111207

Squassoni noted that

• for example, wind plants require 18 months to build,

• combined cycle gas turbines need 36 months,

• but nuclear power plants take at least 60 months

Page 23: Green forum 111207

The Citibank survey concludes that

• without taxpayers money there is "little if any prospect that new nuclear stations will be built … by the private sector unless developers can lay off substantial elements of the three major risks.

• Financing guarantees, minimum power prices, and/or government-backed power off-take agreements may all be needed if stations are to be built."

Page 24: Green forum 111207

Green New DealInvestment in energy efficiency and

renewable energies is the smartest!

• For each euro invested in energy efficiency and renewables you can achieve up to 11 times more reductions in greenhouse gas emmissions than nuclear power.

• Nuclear power is an investment blackhole!• It monopolises enormous public subsidies, the

decommissioning of NPP and managing radioactive waste will reach hundreds of billions of euros.