green energy, the key to the future of our planet

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© Fraunhofer ISE Green Energy - the Key to the Future of our planet Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany

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Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

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Page 1: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

Green Energy -the Key to the Future of our planet

Eicke R. Weber

Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

and

Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany

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Page 2: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Largest European solar energy research institute

>930 members of staff (incl. students)

Areas of business:

• Photovoltaics • Solar Thermal Technologies • Renewable Power Generation • Energy-Efficient Buildings and

Technical Building Components• Applied Optics and Functional

Surfaces• Hydrogen Technology

10% basic financing 90% contract research 40% industry, 60% public € 56 M total budget (‘09) > 10% p.a. growth rate

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Page 3: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Challenges of Today‘s Situation:

� COP-15 is widely considered a failure, as it did not result in binding CO2 - reduction targets.

� Still, COP-15 lead to global acceptance of the 2oC target as maximum permissible warming; more will definitely result in climate-disaster.

� This means, the world cannot emit more than 750 Gt of CO2 during this century; it currently emits about 35 Gt of CO2 per year (9.5 Gt C/a) !

� Instead of waiting for politics to succeed, we should work for the fastest possible transitioninto a green energy future!

Holocene

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Page 4: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Price of fossil energy, example oil price

2001 2004 2007 20100

50

100

150

Brent Crude Oil

USD

/KG

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Page 5: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

The transformation into a green energy future requi res

� Increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport (e-mobility) and production

� Rapid development of all renewable energies, especially wind, PV, ST, hydro, geothermal and biomass towards a 100% renewable energy future

� Expansion of the electricity grid for long-distance transport and smart users

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Page 6: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

CO2 - free sources of energy

� Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem

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Page 7: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Price of uranium

2001 2004 2007 20100

50

100

150

200

250

300 Uranium

USD

/KG

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Page 8: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Nuclear energy – new installed power

Quelle: IAEA

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Page 9: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

New installed power– nuclear and renewable power

Quellen: IAEA, Navigant Consulting, DEWI

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Page 10: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

CO2 - free sources of energy

� Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem

� Clean coal technologies - requires carbon sequestration, unproven technology, energy inefficient, may pose danger of accidental release

� Wind - fluctuating production, limited number of suitable sites

� Hydro - can be switched on instantaneously, suitable for storage, good sites limited, production should be maximized

� Biofuels - interesting as liquid fuel for traffic, production energy intensive

� Geothermal - excellent where easily accessible (example: Island)

� Solar energy (Photovoltaics, Solarthermal) - unlimited energy source PV: continuous price reduction through savings of scale

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Page 11: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Exemplary Path, global primary energy consumption

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de

Other Renewables

Oil

Coal

Gas

Nuclear Energy

HydropowerBiomass (traditional)Biomass (modern)

Solar Electricity (PV und solarthermal)

Solarthermal (Heat only)

Geothermal

Wind

Year2000 2020 2040

200

600

1000

1400

2100

EJ/a

0

10

30

40

50

20

TW

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Page 12: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Magnitude of Solar Energy

� Each hour the sun delivers to earth the amount of energy used by humans in a whole year

� Sun radiation onto earth corresponds to 120,000 TW

� Total human energy need in 2020: 20TW!

Source: G.W. Crabtree and N.S. Lewis, Physics Today, March 2007

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Page 13: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Annual installation of PV modules (worldwide)

Sources: 2000-2003 Strategies Unlimited, 2006 EPIA “solar generation”, 2007 LBBW Report, 2010 SolarBuzz

AnnualModuleShipment(CrystallineSilicon)

MWp/a

2000 20122005 2010

15% Growth

25% Growth

2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011

1,600

2,000

4,000

1,200

800

400

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

4,400

4,800

40 % CAGR

Projection (2003)Actual Shipments

2009: 6,43 GWp

2003: 600 MWp

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Page 14: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Technologies in the global PV-market

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

2007

Mono-Si

Thin-Film

Multi-Si

Ribbon-Si

First 20% Mono-Siproduction cell (100cm²)

Renewable Energy law, GER

Residential roof program, JPN

First 20% Mono-Si lab cell (4cm²)1990: 1/3 thin-film, c-Si, ms-Si2007: > 90% c-Si & mc-Si!

3 GWp

Slide courtesy of G. Willeke

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Page 15: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

High-Efficiency ISE solar cell structure for mc sil icon

Thermal oxide:Surface passivation and high internal reflectivity

Plasma-textured surface:

Low reflection and good „light trapping“

Laser-fired contacts(LFC): Low contact resistanceand high voltage

Wafer thickness: 99 µm

Efficiency: 20.3% (1 cm2)

world record for mc-Si!

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Page 16: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

From mg-Si to ultrapure poly-Si: the Siemens Proces s

‘fluidised bed’ reactor fractional distillation

mg-Si powder

hot Si dust

exhaust (SiHCl3, SiCL4, H2, Metall Chloride)

heating elements

HCl

quartz tube

ca. 30.000 t/aca. $100/kg

Alternative Technology for PV:upgraded metallurgical Si, umg-Si (‚dirty silicon‘)

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Page 17: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Price learn-curve of crystalline Si PV-modules

10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 10 102 103

d [µm] = 400 300 200 100 50

ηcell [%] = 10 15 18 20

slope: 22% decrease for each doubling of installed capacity

20202010(25%)

[€/Wp]

100

10

1

19801990

20002004

Installed Peak Power (cumulated) [GWp]

(30%)

2007

Slide courtesy of G. Willeke

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Page 18: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

High-efficiency ISE triple-junction solar cells

Ga0.65In0.35P

tunnel diode

Ga0.83In0.17As

tunnel diode

Ge substrate

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

ηηηη = 41.1 %

Cur

rent

[A]

Voltage [mV]

2517-3-01-17 Ga

0.35In

0.65P/Ga

0.83In

0.17As/Ge

C = 454 x, T = 25 °C (C = 1: AM1.5d, ASTM G173-03, 1000 W/m²) I

SC = 380.5 mA

VOC

= 2867 mV

FF = 87.2 % A = 0.0509 cm²

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Page 19: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Realization : FLATCON ® System by Concentrix

� III-V based tandem cells

� Cgeo = 500x

� Point focus Fresnel lenses

� Housing made of glass

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Page 20: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

An important advantage of large-area CPV: land use

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Page 21: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Thin-film CIS Solar cell structure

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Page 22: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Segmentation of the Efficiencies in the Solar Cell Market

� 1 - 5 %: Organic, Dye, Nanostructure Cells

� 6 - 11%: Thin film cells (a-Si, microcryst.-Si, CIS, CIGS, CdTe)

� 14 - 18%: mc-Si, umg-Si, simple c-Si cells

� 20 - 24%: High efficiency, mainly c-Si cells

� 36 - 41.1%: High-efficiency III/V tandem cells for concentrators with 25 - 30% module efficiency

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Page 23: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Concentrated Solar (Thermal) Power CSP Technologies

C ~ 500-1000comm. demo

ηa ~ 10%-15%

LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh

C ~ 300-4000demo

ηa ~ 14%-18%

LEC2020 ~ ?

C ~ 60-120demo

ηa ~10%-12%

LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh

C ~ 70-90commercial

ηa ~ 12%-14%

LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh

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Page 24: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

ν Predictions of different studies

ν Expected for 2020:

ca. 20 GWp installed

Expected CSP Market Development

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

cum

ulat

ed c

apac

ity [G

We]

Morse 2000

Pilkington

Sunlab 2001

S&L 2003

ESTIA 2005

Sarrazin 2007

BMU 2006

GMI

IEA Solarpaces

© FraunhoferISE

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Page 25: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Existing and Future Solar Thermal Power Plants

about 500 MW operating, 2500 MW under construction, 9000 MW in Planning

Quelle: Kost (Fraunhofer ISE)

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Page 26: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Desertec - vision of an electricity super grid

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Page 27: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Wind onshore: $ 1 -2 / Wp, on the average 2000-2500h/a

Nuclear: $ 5-7/W, 6000-7000 operation hours/a, + costs of nuclear fuel, operation, final storage

CSP: $ 2 - 4 / Wp without storage, 1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine$ 3 - 5 / Wp with storage,

+ costs of maintainance

Costs to build new power plants

Wind offshore: $ 3 - 4 Wp, up to 3500h/a, high maintainance costs

Photovoltaic: $ 2,50 - 3 / Wp, 800-1000h/a in Germany, 1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine regions

Source: E.R. Weber

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Page 28: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Electricity Costs of Renewable Energies

� Electricity Costs depend on number of operating hours

� On-shore wind reaches parity with fossil energies

� PV at good locations competitive with CSP

PV klein

1000

PV groß

2000

CSP

mit Speicher

2000

CSP

ohne Speicher

2000

Wind

onshore

2000

Wind

offshore

3200

Strommix

fossil

Leitszenario 2009

Medium

Number: kWhr/kWp for PV, CSP, and wind

Slide courtesy of C. Kost (Fraunhofer ISE)

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Page 29: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

100% Renewable Electricity: the Energy Storage Prob lem

� Energy harvested from the sun and wind is fluctuating in nature; this can be partially balanced by hydro, biomass and geothermal energies

� An efficient energy storage system is highly desirable; first in line is hydro, as water pumped to elevated altitude or variable-flow dams

� Current battery technologies are too expensive; an exception could be redox-flow batteries that essentially store electric charge

� Solar-generated Hydrogen combined with fuel cells might get cost-competitive with further development

� Ultimately, a global electricity grid based on HVDC lines might eliminate this problem: The sun shines at any time of the day somewhere on the globe

� Heat storage in CSP Solar Thermal Power plants is readily available

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Page 30: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Failure of COP-15 (Kopenhagen 2009): Negative Goal

� Climate Scientists:Earth can afford only 750 Gt of additional CO2 - emissions,to limit global warming to 2oC

� Politics: Negotiate treaties to limit national CO2 - emissions, see COP-15

� Voters (esp. in USA):Object limits on convenience of living through CO2 emission limitations

� Emerging Countries (e.g., China):Limitations and reductions of CO2 - emissions not acceptable, per-capita emissions are much smaller than in industrialized countries

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Page 31: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Better: Positive Goals: RE und EE

� Regenerative Energy Goal : % RE in Electricity, Energy consumption

- 20% (Germany: 30-40%) RE in total energy by 2020

- 100% RE in electricity by 2030 seem to be possible (e.g., M. Jacobson)

� Governments: these goals can be directly influenced by politics

� Voters : positive Goals present a challenge (c.f., landing on the moon)

� Economies: Jobs in high- und low-Technologies

� Support of RE, EE: economic stimulus programs

Advantages of RE and EE Goals:

� Energy - Efficiency Goal: Energy intensity of GNP in kWh/$ GNP

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Page 32: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

Conclusion: The Green Energy Future

� Our climate goals can only be achieved with more efficient energy use and rapid introduction of renewable energies worldwide;

� All sources of renewable energy should be developed. Among those, harvesting solar electricity will be a leading technology, as solar energy is virtually unlimited available.

� Direct photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion is based on semiconductor technology; the price will follow a steep learning curve, so that solar energy will get competitive with electricity from fossil and nuclear sources.

� Electricity from solar thermal energy conversion (CSP) is cost competitive today, and has advantages in heat storage; however, the learning curve seems to have a smaller slope, so that PV might create lowest-cost solar electricity.

� Ultimately, the green energy market will soon be a 100s of bn-$ market, providing millions of jobs and energy without fuel costs worldwide.

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Page 33: Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

© Fraunhofer ISE

NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010

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