green development and energy transition in china theory ...carbon intensity, 18% ↓ (17% in the...
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The 39th IAEE International ConferenceEnergy: Expectations and Uncertainty
China’s Green Development andEnergy Transformation: Theory and Practices
Prof. Dr. WANG YiCAS Institutes of Science and Development
Bergen, 20 June 2016
1
China’s Green Targets and Policy during the 13thFYP Period
1
3
2 Future’s Challenges and Uncertainties
Roadmap to Energy Transition and Green Development
报告提纲 Outline
中国生态文明建设和绿色发展的路径依赖Highlights of Ecological Civilization and Green
Transformation & Development in China Policy-making path dependency New idea→ Plan with targets→ Pilot & program→ Scaling up
Highlights for building an Ecological Civilization (EC) Change of governing philosophy Setting up institution/regulation system first for life-cycle
management Governance improvement: top-down + bottom-up, Market + Gov’t Reform and innovation-oriented Green development or Greening/ Greenization: environmental
quality centered Green Development in a new normal during the 13th FYP
(2015-2020) Resolve the environmental and resource issues Economic restructuring by environmental driver Green industry & industrial greening: resource/energy efficiency,
environmental service, clean energy, new energy vehicle
中国的新发展理念Path Dependence: New development idea/targets ‐oriented
2002: New industrialization path 2003: Scientific development concept/balanced development
highlight the sustainable development2004: Resource-Efficient and Environment-Friendly Society
(REEFS) and Circular Economy (CE)2006: Energy efficiency and pollutants reduction approach
(the 11th and 12th FYPs) 2009: Low-carbon development2012: Ecological Civilization (EC):new governing philosophy,
like Chinese version of sustainable development2015: Greening/Greenization/Green Development:
transition of production and consumption pattern 5 development concepts in one
实现发展理念的综合措施（2006‐2015）Comprehensive Measures for Realizing the Development Ideas
Legal framework Planning framework:National Five-Year Plan (FYP), sectoral plan, local FYP Mandatory targets: energy efficiency and key pollutants reduction Legally binding domestically, approved by the NPC
Action plan and comprehensive implementation program, supporting policies
Pilot project: CE, REEFS, Low-Carbon/ETS, EC, etc. Policy review, scale-up, and new ideas
20 parts and 80 chapters, strategic layout: 5 concepts of comprehensive development Innovation-driven Development Coordinative DevelopmentGreen Development Opening-up oriented Development Shared Development
5 concepts: strategic layout, linked each other as a whole Market plays a decisive role Innovation-driven development: 1st driving force Supply-side structural reform: cutting overcapacity, destocking,
deleveraging, reducing costs and improving weak links Three key regions: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River
Economic Zone, One Belt One Road Initiative Key policies, projects and programs for implementation (100)
十三五规划纲要：五大发展理念The 13th FYP Outline (approved by NPC on 16th Mar. 2016)
Green development (Part 10 with 7 chapters, entitled as “Speeding up to Improving the Environment”）Speed up to build the main function zoning Push intensive and conservative use of resourcesEnlarge the pollution control Strengthen ecological conservation and restorationAddress global climate changeImprove ecological safety mechanism Develop the green and environmental service industries
十三五规划纲要：五大发展理念（绿色发展）The 13th FYP Outline (approved by NPC on 16th Mar. 2016)
Green development in other parts:Innovation-driven development: building new institutional system: market-based instruments,
taxation (resource and environmental tax), regulatory, etc.Modern Industry system: eco-friendly agriculture, Made in China
2025 (smart+green, green manufacturing), Emerging green strategic industry, Green logistics, etc.Modern infrastructural network: green and low-carbon
transportation, smart and clean energy system, water security program
Coordinated development: green city, green building, marine environmental protection, Yangtze economic zone development with protection first Shared development: resolve poverty issue, sharing economy
十三五规划纲要：五大发展理念 (绿色发展)The 13th FYP Outline (approved by NPC on 16th Mar. 2016)
“十三五”期间的绿色指标Green targets in 2015‐2020
Mandatory targets: 10 types and 16 targetsResources and Energy: double control (efficiency + cap control) Land: arable land, keep stable at 1.865 Bn. mu; newly-increased
construction land, < 32.56 Mn. muWater: water use: 670 Bn. m3, water use per 10000 yuan of GDP, 23% ↓ Energy: total energy consumption: 5.0 Bn. tce; energy intensity, 15% ↓
(16% in the 12th FYP) Environment: the quality centered Environmental quality:
• Air quality: two targets, incl. PM2.5• Quality of surface water: two targets
Pollutant reduction: • COD 10% ↓ (8% in the 12th FYP)• NH3-N 10% ↓ (10% in the 12th FYP)• SO2 15% ↓ (8% in the 12th FYP)• NOx 15% ↓ (10% in the 12th FYP)
• Note: the indicator with orange color refers to non-mandatory targets
“十三五”期间及至2030年的绿色指标Climate targets in 2020 and beyond
Climate change targets in 2015-2020: Carbon intensity, 18% ↓ (17% in the 12th FYP, non fossil fuel
contribution more than that in 12th FYP) Share of non-fossil energy, reach at 15% (12% in 2015) Forest area: 23% (21.7% in 2015) Timber stock volume: 1.65 Bn m3 (1.51 Bn m3 ↑ in 2010-2015)
Targets in 2030 (China’s INDC) Carbon emissions peak by around 2030 or earlier Share of non-fossil energy, 20% Energy intensity, 60-65% ↓ (2005-2030) Timber stock volume: 4.5 Bn m3 ↑ (2005-2030)
十三五期间的应对气候变化政策Policy framework to address climate change during 13th FYP
Main points Control carbon emissions effectively Adaptation to climate change actively Development the international cooperation widely
Key incremental policy Double control of energy/carbon intensity and total energy
consumption Launch the national Carbon ETS in 2017 Support some prioritized cities to reach at carbon peak earlier Implement demo engineering of near-zero carbon emission
district South-south cooperation fund on climate
十二五规划目标分解案例Energy Intensity Target Allocation by province (12th FYP case)
Provinces Energy Intensity
Type 1 Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong 18%
Tape 2 Beijing, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong 17%
Type 3 Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Fujian, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi 16%
Type 4 Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Ningxia 15%
Type 5 Hainan, Qinghai, Tibet, Xinjiang 10%
A comprehensive implementation program needed Legal, administrative, economic, and technical measures;
top-down approach + bottom-up negotiation; Target allocation by province/industry/enterprise
保定
南昌
重庆
湖北
辽宁
厦门
北京/天津
贵阳
杭州
陕西
云南
天津
LC & ETS pilots distribution (1st round)27% of population, 36% of GDP, 32% of energy consumption, and 27% of CO2 emissions
广东/广州
重庆
上海
深圳
低碳试点分布
LC
ETS
广东
深圳
湖北/武汉
十三五期间的能源发展重大工程Prioritized Energy Development Program in 13th FYP
High-efficient smart power systemHigh-efficient and clean coal technology Renewable energyNuclear powerUnconventional oil & gasEnergy delivery channelEnergy storage tech/facilityKey technical equipment manufacture for energy
development
China’s Green Targets and Policy during the 13th FYP Period
1
3
2 Future’s Challenges and Uncertainties
Roadmap to Energy Transition and Green Development
报告提纲 Outline
未来中国排放趋势的判断The Overall Judgment of China’s Future Emissions
Research GroupThe Time of CO2Emission Peak
(Year)
The Amount of CO2 Emission Peak
(109 t)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory(2011)——“Baseline” 2033 12
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory(2011)——“Energy Efficiency Scenarios” 2027 9.7
UNDP（2010）——“Reduction Scenario” 2030 8.8
Research Group of Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission（2009）——“Enhanced Low‐carbon Scenario” 2030 8.2
Chinese Academy of Engineering（2014） 2025 9.0
Tsinghua University（2013） 2030 11
China Sustainable Development Report 2014（Policy Mix Scenarios，2014） 2032 11.1
Existing Research on China’s Carbon Emissions Peak
China’s population, major resource consumption and pollution emissions will reachits peak in the next 10 to 20 years in succession, and the next 5 to 10 years is acrucial period of China’s green & low-carbon transition.As most studies show, China’s carbon emissions peak will appear around 2030, and
the amount CO2 emissions peak will be from 8-15 Bn. tons. The most possible isaround 1.1 Bn. tons, but there are still some uncertainties which is directly relatedto the actions, such as a rebound effectBased on the average level of energy use in OECD country or Japan, China’s
energy consumption will respectively reach at 9.0 or 7.5 Bn. tce in 2050. Theenergy revolution needed.
6.0 7.7
9.9
13.1 14.7 15.6
17.0 19.7
23.0 26.1
28.6 31.1 32.1
33.6 36.1
38.7 40.2
41.7 42.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
煤炭 石油 天然气 水电、核电、风电及其他
中国的能源消费现状China’s Primary Energy Consumption
In 2015, primary energy consumption 4.3 bn tce (per capita 2.8 tce), 0.4% increase than that in 2014, coal share 64%
Carbon emissions would be slightly reduced or flat in 2015
In 2015, primary energy consumption 4.3 bn tce (per capita 2.8 tce), 0.4% increase than that in 2014, coal share 64%
Carbon emissions would be slightly reduced or flat in 2015
Energy Sharein 2014
Coal Oil Gas Hydro, Nuke, Wind, and Others
Coal: 66.0%Oil: 17.1%Gas: 5.7%Non‐Fossil: 11.2%
非化石能源发展（2013-2020）Non Fossil Fuel (power) 2013-2020
Item 2014（GW）
2020（GW）
Fund（Bn yuan）
Renew‐ables
Biomass 9.5 30 430Wind 96 200 1384PV 28 50 1320
Subtotal 3134
Otherclean energy
Hydro 300 420 560
Nuclear 20 58 867
Subtotal 1427
Total 4561
2007-2012 Non-Fossil Fuel’s share of total power investment
In 2014, only 10% up to standard– Monitory: 161 cities ( 87 added than that in 2013)– 145 substandard, account for 90.1%– City up to standard: including Haikou, Sanya in Haidan
provinceIn 2013, 95.9% substandard
– Under monitory: 74 cities– 71 substandard, account for 95.9%– City up to standard: Haikou, Zhoushan,
and LhasaAverage concentration decreased,
but severe smog events in winter 2015
中国城市空气质量China’s Urban Air Quality
基于模拟的政策建议及其挑战Policy recommendations and challenges for peaking by simulation
Integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package: target + roadmap/b-model + tech+ +policy mix + fine management + etc.
Make sure a multi-step strategy of transition and change of development pattern with overall restructuring (idea, technology, business model, and integration)
Reduce energy intensity and adjust energy structure are the fundamental way for reaching peaks
Carbon tax, carbon market, and other market-based instruments could work as supplemental measure to reduce CO2 emissions
If China reach at the carbon peak earlier than 2030, it would cause the reduction of global welfare (based on MRICES-CINCIA simulation)
Uncertainty/risk, e.g. growth, tech innovation, energy revolution, capacity development, etc.
The new normal of economy – 6.5-7% growth expectation in the 13th FYP– “ L ” curve or rebound effect – Energy elasticity would maintain at or less then 0.3
Structural reform from supply side – De-capacity of production, in particular, coal-fired
power plant and steel firms; Deal with sunk costs– New energy industry development – Energy mix optimization – Demand-side management
中国经济转型的不确定性Challenges of China’s Economic Transition
China’s Green Targets and Policy during the 13th FYP Period
1
3
2 Future’s Challenges and Uncertainties
Roadmap to Energy Transition and Green Development
报告提纲 Outline
未来15年中国的绿色低碳转型发展: 立法路径Future’s institutional arrangements: Legislation
Paris Agreement will be approved by the NPC standing committee later this year
Base on 5-year plan of NPC standing committee: Draft a Nuclear Safety Law, Atomic Energy Law, Environmental Taxation
Law, Soil Pollution Control Law, etc. Revise the Circular Economy Promotion Law, Water Pollution Control Law
according to an integrated approach and new EPL; revise Energy Conservation Law
Speed up drafting a Climate Change Law, Carbon Trading Regulation, and related Institutions, based on emission peaking and carbon cap/assets management
Institutional arrangements for environmental quality improvement and Green/Low-carbon development
Strengthening enforcement and justice continuously, such as Environmental Protection Law (2014), Air Pollution Control Law (2015)
Capacity building of legislation for 284 prefecture-level cities, among them, 235 new
未来15年中国的绿色低碳转型发展: 体制改革Administrative System and Governance Reform
Governance of governmental sector, restructuring in 2018 Coordinating mechanism: resolve regulations and procedures conflict MIIT: sectoral energy saving Departments under NDRC: energy mgmt., energy saving, climate protection
Potential Mega-ministries + Regulatory agency needed for energy and climate change, resource and ecosystem management, pollution prevention and control
Reform within energy sector break the monopoly, reform for market pricing, change of Govt functions,
reform of state-owned energy enterprises Establish a vertical environmental regulatory system at the
provincial level, pilot and spread out Establish the regional, trans-jurisdiction and river basin
management authority Strengthening information disclosure and public participation
step by step
未来15年中国的绿色低碳转型发展: 完善经济政策Improving current economic policy toolkit
Overcome the obstacles of ETS and market-base instruments Strengthen the foundation of carbon ETS: date, regulation system, rule
of game (emissions permit, allocation of primary property right based on regional disparity, auction, income distribution, etc.)
Regulation system first for the new man-made market, stakeholder involvement important
Suggestion: Pilot province/city → Regional pilot → National market Improve the existing policies Remove obstacles for PPP Change current VAT policy on environmental service industry Reduce transaction costs of green and low carbon transition/development
(incl. sunk cost, social cost, etc.) Alternative polices Green/Low-carbon financing Carbon tax Incentives for Carbon cap management beyond 2020
能源和低碳技术政策Policy for Eco-Innovation and Technology Development
Source: Energy Science & Technology in China: a roadmap to 2050,Science Press/ Springer, 2009
Encourage diversified energy/low-carbon tech development, optimize the energy supply mix
Policy for investing new energy, new energy vehicle, energy storage and power transmission, distributed energy, smart grid and smart energy system; renewable tech cluster; CCS etc.
Explore a New development model beyond the Paris Agreement Energy transformation / Greenization: sharing cost and risk Advanced tech development: energy/resource efficiency, clean and
renewable tech package, integrated tech (smart+green), green tech transfer, Best practice sharing: policy, management, standard/benchmark system,
business model, carbon-free demo engineering, etc. Systems innovation and institutional arrangements: such as, new
environmental market by region Policy analysis, such as, MRV for the environment, comprehensive
assessment (like INDC reviewing), integrated planning, regionaldevelopment, roadmap/trajectory assessment for decarbonization/greentransformation (multi-step simulation), PPP vs. Gov’t direct investment,supply chain/lifecycle analysis
Governance/management pattern reform: fine management, adaptivemanagement, management of uncertainty and transition
Modelling development Building cooperation platform, based on G20,Think Tank network, etc. South-South Cooperation, such as SSCF
未来15年中国的绿色低碳转型发展: 国际合作International cooperation
探索包容、合作与双赢的全球绿色转型发展之路Explore a inclusive, collaborative, win-win solution to
green transition and development
China faces unprecedented challenge as there is no mature experience and fixed mode to refer to
The relation and diversified goals (SDGs) of development and green should be balanced to raise the synergic effect.
Roadmap to a green transition and development is one process requiring continuous learning, practice, reform, and innovation (learning by doing)
The green transformation require to take comprehensive measure and systems reform at all round, and to be jointly participated by all the stakeholders (combination of top-down and bottom-top)
Establish the global green transition/development partnership: reduce the costs and risks, share the best practice, realize a win-win solution
