Green and Yampa Rivers: Current Conditions and Forecasts

March 23, 2016 Flaming Gorge Working Group Meeting

Ashley Nielson-Senior Hydrologist Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

National Weather Service/NOAA

Today’s Presentation

•  Who is the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center?

•  Weather Review (Fall +Winter) •  Current Conditions Impacting Forecasts

•  Soil Moisture (modeled) •  Snow

•  Forecasts •  April-July Water Supply Volumes •  Peak Flows

•  Weather Outlooks

Who is the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center?

Mission: To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment…to meet our Nation’s economic, social and environmental needs

Mission: The NWS provides, weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings….for the protection of life and property and the enhancemnet of the national ecomony

The NWS has 13 river forecast centers defined by major river basins across the country that produce timely and accurate water forecasts to support the NWS/NOAA missions

CBRFC: Who are we?

•  One of 13 NWS River Forecast Centers

•  Major Programs Include •  Flood and routine river forecasts •  Water Supply Forecasts •  Flash Flood Support

•  14 person staff includes meteorologists, hydrologists, and IT •  Forecasts drive a broad range of

important stakeholder decisions

IdahoWyoming

Colorado

New Mexico

California

Nevada

Utah

Mexico

Arizona

Gila River

Colo rado R ive r

Gre

enR

iver

White River

Litt le Colorad o River

Bear

Rive r

Y ampa Riv er

San Juan River

San

Ped

roR

iver

Virgin

River

Lake Powel

l

Dolores River

PriceRiver

Sa n taCr u

zR

iver

Verde

River

Sevi

erR

iver

Zu

ni River

Ka

nab

Cre

ek

Puerco River

Ch inle

Creek

H

ams Fork

Lake

Mead

Chaco Rive r

Beave rR

iver

M

eadow

Valle

yW

a sh

Sal t R iver

Little Snake River

Gunnison River

B lac k River

Bitter Creek

New

Riv

er

Mud

dy

Creek

DuchesneRiv er

H

assayampa

River

Pa

riaR

ive rPahra

nag

at

Wa

sh

G rea t Salt

Lake

San Miguel River

San Simon

Creek

Mancos Rive r

Qu een Creek

Brine

Cre

ek

Centennial Wash

Fremont River

San

Fra

ncisco River

Escalante River

Vamori Wash

We

ber R i ver

Ja

ck

Canyon

BigChino

W

ash

San Rafael Rive r

Veko l W

ash

Carrizo

C reek

JordanR

ive r

AguaFria

River

Ch

evel

onC

anyo

n

Blacks Fork

Ca

n on Largo

Ha nrys Fork

Oak Cr eek

Clea r Creek

Pueblo

Color

ado Wash

Carrizo Wash

SanP

itch

Riv

er

Cherry

Creek

Elk

River

Bea

ve rD

amW

ash

Bonita

Creek

N avajo River

Sauced

aW

ash

Truxton

W ash

AravaipaCreek

Bra

wle

yW

ash

DirtyD

evil River

Rio Pescado

Can

yo

n Dia

blo

Tomichi Creek

Se

vier Lake

Big

Sand

yR

ive r

Ton

t oC

reek

Eagle

Creek

Tige

r Wash

Rio

Bla nco

San

Sim

o nW

ash

McElmo Creek

Pinal C

reek

Cataract Canyon

Smi t

hs

For k

Provo R iver

Muddy

River

Ca

veC

reek

Whi

tew

ater Draw

Jackrabbit Wash

New

Fo rk

Ri ver

Ot t

er

Cre

ek

Fon

t e nelle Creek

Waterm

an

Wash

Fla

ming Gorge Reserv

oir

Gra

nite

Cre

e k

SantaM

ar ia

Rive r

S la ter Creek

Alt

ar

Wa

sh

Syca

mor e

Cre

ek

Chalk Cree k

East

Fork

Sev i

erR

iver

Bill Will iams R iver

Eas t ForkVir g

inR

iver

Big

Wa

sh

S kun

kC

reek

East Ve rde River

Corduroy Creek

Pantano Wash

Sols Wash

Hava

suC

anyon

Uta

hLa

ke

LeslieCreek

Strawberry River

F lamingo W ash

Soldier Creek

Arivaca Wash

West Clear Creek

Sant

a R

osa

Wa

sh

Surf

ace

Cre

ek

Trilb

yW

ash

Cottonwood Creek

Taylor River

Hu

alap ai W

ash

Arizona Canal

San Carlos River

BigBug

Cree k

SantaClara

River

Spa

n ish Fork

No

rth

Fork

White River

Cotton wood

Was

h

Las Vegas Wash

Sand

Tank Wash

Cana

da

del Oro

East Fork White River

Walnut Creek

ShowLow

C

reek

Bea

rL

ak

e

Outlet

Tho

ma

s Fork

West Canyon

Bla

ck C

an

yon

Rillito River

Baboco mari River

Lost

Creek

Wet Beaver Creek

Tanque Verde Wash

Ogden River

Dry

Bea

ve

r Creek

East

Canyon Creek

Mogollon

Creek

Pin

eC

re ek

Lynx

Creek

Williamson Valley Wash

Duck Creek

Munds Creek

Los Robles Wash

BeaverC

reek

Bu

llard

Wa

sh

Da

vid

son

Ca

nyo

n

Mu

d C

reek

Corn

Cre

ek W

ash

Fish Creek

Prov

o Ri

ver

SantaCruz

Riv er

Taylor River

Whi

te R

iver

Salt River

W

hite

Riv

er

Gre

enR

i ve r

Co

lorad

o Riv

er

Co

lora

do

Riv

er

Bea

r R

iver

Gila River

Sev

ier

Riv

er

Salt River

B

ea rR

iver

Col

orado River

Gunnison R iver

Provo

R iver

S alt River

San Juan River

Sa

lt River

McE

lmo C

reek

B eaver Ri ver

N

ew

Fork

River

S ev i

erR

iver

Green River

BigSandy Riv

er

W hite River

Verde River

Weber R

iver

NorthFork White River

Colorad o River

Colo

rado

Rive

r

Las

V egas W ash

Great Salt

La

ke

Gila River

Gunni

son

River

San Juan River

White R

iver

Bear River

Dolores R

iver

Col o

radoR

iv er

Clear Creek

Sevier River

D olores Rive r

Green

Rive r

San Juan River

Se

vier River

Web

er R

iver

Green River

Bea

r R

iver

Bea

r R

iver

Strawberry

River

Gunnison River

Whi

t eR

i ve r

Co lo ra

do

Riv er

C olorado River

Be a

rR

i ver

Sevier River

San P itch Riv

er

Bea

rR

iver

San Juan Riv er

Weber River

Upper Green

Lake PowellSevier

San Juan Lower Colorado

Salt River

Gila

CBRFC Water Supply Forecast Basins

Little Colorado

Virgin

LegendRivers

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FEATURELake Dry

Lake Intermittent

Reservoir

Reservoir Intermittent

Swamp or Marsh

Basins

RFC Boundary

States

www.cbrfc.noaa.govNOAA,NWS,CBRFC B.Bernard 2014

Q

0 50 100 150 20025Miles

Bear

Dolores

Gunnison

Col-Cameo

Yampa-WhiteProvoSix Creeks

Weber

Duchesne

Verde

Colo. Abv Kremling

Weather Review: Fall Precipitation/Temperatures

Above Flaming Gorge: 115% Yampa River: 125%

Weather Review: Winter Precipitation

Above Flaming Gorge: 93% Yampa River: 125%

Above Flaming Gorge: 65% Yampa River: 55%

Weather Review: Water Year and March Precipitation

Soil Moisture November 15, 2015

Soil Moisture representation from the CBRFC hydrologic model

Fall Soil Moisture

Snow (CBRFC Hydrologic Model) March 22th 2016

Significant Runoff Areas

Snow (Upper Green SNOTELS)

3/23: 98% Normal 91% Peak

Snow (Yampa River SNOTELS)

3/23: 100% Normal 92% Peak

March 1st Water Supply Forecasts Upper Green and Yampa River Basins

April-July Forecast Streamflow Volumes (% of 1981-2010 average)

Flaming Gorge

67%

Yampa 83%

Little Snake 77%

Green River 73%

White

93%

March 23 Forecasts: Flaming Gorge: 62% Yampa: 80% White: 91%

Forecast: Flaming Gorge Inflow Seasonal Forecast Progression

700 685 660 1/1 2/1 3/1

Forecast in KAF Date Issued

3/21 1093 KAF/110%

604 KAF/62%

435 KAF/44%

Forecast: Yampa River-Deerlodge Seasonal Forecast Progression

1130 1200 1030 1/1 2/1 3/1

Forecast in KAF Date Issued

3/21 1320 KAF/106%

994 KAF/80%

703 KAF/56%

Peak Flow Forecast: Yampa River-Deerlodge

Forecast: 10000 CFS Average: 13500 CFS Flood: 20700 CFS Last Year: 10100 CFS

Peak Flow Forecast: Green River- Green River, Utah

Forecast: 21000 CFS Average: 21700 CFS Flood: 36400 CFS Last Year: 15900 CFS

Weather Outlook: Short-Term Temperature

Precipitation

Weather Outlook: April

Temperature Precipitation

Contact Us! •  Operational Hydrologist

•  801-524-5130 x340 •  cbrfc.operations@noaa.gov

•  Michelle Stokes – Hydrologist In Charge •  michelle.stokes@noaa.gov

•  Ashley Nielson-Green River Forecaster •  ashley.nielson@noaa.gov •  801-524-5130 x333

www.cbrfc.noaa.gov @nwscbrfc

facebook.com/nwscbrfc

Questions?