greater phoenix real estate market snapshot february 2010

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market

Report

Residential Focus By Fletcher Wilcox, Vice President of Business Development, Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc. [email protected] 602-648-1230

8

Table 7

December 2009 Greater Phoenix Single Family Detached Sales

(No Other ARMLS Residential Categories Included)

Residential Sold Price Range Sales

Active Listings

Estimated Months of

Supply

Mean Price Per

Sq. Ft. Short

Sales (No.)

Short Sales (%)

Lender-Owned Sales

(No.)

Lender-Owned Sales

( %) Other (No.)

Other (%) Total

Under $50,999 484 710 1.5 $30.49 72 15% 340 70% 73 15% 100%

50,000 to 99,999 1,630 3,839 2.4 $53.04 437 27% 861 53% 332 20% 100%

100,000 to 149,999 1,672 5,117 3.1 $73.33 407 24% 757 45% 508 30% 99%

150,000 to 199,999 1,054 4,117 3.9 $92.17 281 27% 354 34% 418 40% 101%

200,000 to 249,999 565 2,526 4.5 $107.00 143 25% 173 31% 249 44% 100%

250,000 to 299,999 371 1,959 5.3 $118.74 96 26% 106 29% 169 46% 101%

300,000 to 349,999 246 1,214 4.9 $125.46 52 21% 69 28% 125 51% 100%

350,000 to 399,999 158 1,090 6.9 $136.88 27 17% 35 22% 96 61% 100%

400,000 to 499,999 159 1,320 8.3 $150.44 25 16% 38 24% 96 60% 100%

500,000 to 599,999 84 860 10.2 $179.85 16 19% 26 31% 42 50% 100%

600,000 to 699,999 56 644 11.5 $189.00 10 18% 10 18% 36 64% 100%

700,000 to 799,999 45 461 10.2 $215.62 8 18% 11 24% 26 58% 100%

800,000 to 899,999 28 418 14.9 $208.39 2 7% 10 36% 16 57% 100%

900,000 to 999,999 15 350 23.3 $210.26 2 13% 2 13% 11 73% 99%

1,000,000 to 1,499,999 42 775 18.5 $261.32 4 10% 13 31% 25 60% 101%

1,500,000 to 1,999,999 15 444 29.6 $311.63 3 20% 2 13% 10 67% 100%

2,000,000 to 2,999,999 14 158 11.3 $411.66 1 7% 4 29% 9 64% 100%

Over 3,000,000 4 402 100.5 $584.22 0 0% 1 25% 3 75% 100%

TOTAL 6,642 26,404 4.0 $86.74 1,586 24% 2,812 42% 2,244 34% 100%

Some percentages may add up to 99% or 101% due to rounding.

Median Price (FS, UC, Sold)Market Dynamics The Melcher Agency

Arizona Regional MLSProperty Types:

Bedrooms: Bathrooms:ARMLS 2 Years (Monthly) AllConstruction Type: All AllPeriod:

All MLS:Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)

MLS: AllPrice:

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

KEY INFORMATION

For Sale 255,000 160,000 -95,000

Jan-08 Median Price ChangeJan-10

229,900Under Contract 129,900 -100,000227,350Sold 125,000 -102,350

Percent Change

-43.5-45.0

-37.3

Lot Size: AllSq Ft: All

02/14/10BrokerMetrics®Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

1 of 2

Market DynamicsMedian Price (FS, UC, Sold)

The Melcher Agency

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Median $ # Properties Median $Median $ # Properties # PropertiesMedian $ # PropertiesFOR SALE UNDER CONTRACT SOLD EXPIRED NEW LISTINGS

Median $ # PropertiesTime Period

160,000Jan-10 6,954 125,000 5,638 149,000129,90051,972 12,789175,000 4,840160,000Dec-09 5,812 128,000 7,438 134,900125,00048,966 10,220180,000 3,971168,900Nov-09 6,003 132,000 7,276 142,900129,90048,509 10,581198,000 3,760169,000Oct-09 7,473 130,000 7,859 145,000130,00049,431 12,778199,000 4,030169,900Sep-09 7,887 130,000 7,641 142,900129,90048,524 12,209200,000 3,984170,000Aug-09 8,153 127,500 7,761 139,900129,90048,575 12,187199,900 4,107175,000Jul-09 8,094 126,900 8,834 139,900125,90049,476 12,470205,000 4,994179,000Jun-09 8,707 125,635 9,066 139,900128,50050,895 12,315215,000 5,182181,025May-09 8,877 120,000 9,034 144,900127,50053,252 10,705219,900 5,795179,000Apr-09 10,540 115,500 8,351 148,900120,00059,180 10,864199,900 6,093174,677Mar-09 9,506 120,000 7,426 139,800120,00064,815 13,974180,000 6,993175,000Feb-09 7,217 125,000 5,319 149,900124,90064,873 12,380179,000 6,815179,000Jan-09 6,299 130,000 4,594 159,995129,90067,603 13,441199,900 8,811179,900Dec-08 5,055 144,000 5,409 138,900137,00066,982 11,668199,900 7,765189,500Nov-08 4,490 151,900 4,267 155,700147,90066,892 12,139210,000 7,088195,000Oct-08 5,015 165,000 5,258 161,250151,90067,414 14,336219,000 7,646200,000Sep-08 5,380 172,500 5,977 169,900168,40066,355 13,929225,000 7,897212,000Aug-08 5,539 186,000 5,491 175,000174,90065,654 13,261232,000 7,689220,000Jul-08 6,845 193,000 5,856 181,000189,90068,039 13,196239,000 8,801229,900Jun-08 6,137 203,908 5,607 192,000199,90070,145 13,250249,800 9,165239,000May-08 5,688 210,070 5,438 205,000210,00071,286 12,746252,000 8,703244,900Apr-08 5,454 217,000 4,638 219,900219,90072,617 13,457249,900 8,623249,900Mar-08 4,570 218,000 4,133 224,900224,79271,983 13,173260,000 8,253250,000Feb-08 3,865 220,000 3,276 232,000226,15470,545 12,700260,000 7,870255,000Jan-08 3,469 227,350 2,808 239,999229,90070,267 15,540260,000 8,953

2 02/14/102 ofBrokerMetrics®Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

KEY INFORMATION

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Market Dynamics The Melcher AgencySold Average vs. Median Price

Jan-10 Percent Change

-45.0178,235

Jan-08

227,350Median

Price ChangeAverage 320,933 -142,697 -44.5

-102,350125,000

All MLS:All

Bathrooms:Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other) Sq Ft:

ARMLS AllAll AllAllAll Lot Size:Bedrooms:Property Types:

Arizona Regional MLS

2 Years (Monthly) Construction Type:Price:Period:MLS:

02/14/10BrokerMetrics®Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

1 of 2

The Melcher Agency

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Market DynamicsSold Average vs. Median Price

Time Period # Properties Sold Sold Average $ Sold Median $ Sold Avg DOMAverage $ - Median $ Median $ as % of Average $5,638Jan-10 178,235 70.1125,000 53,235 917,438Dec-09 179,503 71.3128,000 51,503 927,276Nov-09 176,106 75.0132,000 44,106 897,859Oct-09 171,830 75.7130,000 41,830 897,641Sep-09 176,109 73.8130,000 46,109 937,761Aug-09 172,180 74.0127,500 44,680 998,834Jul-09 177,299 71.6126,900 50,399 1109,066Jun-09 171,942 73.1125,635 46,307 1169,034May-09 164,140 73.1120,000 44,140 1208,351Apr-09 159,607 72.4115,500 44,107 1227,426Mar-09 160,126 74.9120,000 40,126 1275,319Feb-09 173,320 72.1125,000 48,320 1224,594Jan-09 181,469 71.6130,000 51,469 1145,409Dec-08 191,932 75.0144,000 47,932 1084,267Nov-08 205,420 74.0151,900 53,520 1115,258Oct-08 212,942 77.5165,000 47,942 1165,977Sep-08 220,095 78.4172,500 47,595 1015,491Aug-08 239,512 77.7186,000 53,512 1145,856Jul-08 251,861 76.6193,000 58,861 1245,607Jun-08 267,344 76.3203,908 63,436 1325,438May-08 274,981 76.4210,070 64,912 1284,638Apr-08 284,028 76.4217,000 67,028 1354,133Mar-08 300,290 72.6218,000 82,290 1323,276Feb-08 297,945 73.8220,000 77,945 1382,808Jan-08 320,933 70.8227,350 93,583 139

2 02/14/102 ofBrokerMetrics®Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

Market DynamicsSupply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold)

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

The Melcher Agency

Price:

51,972

AllAll All

6,954-18,295

Property Types:ARMLS

Under Contract2,808

For Sale

MLS: All

3,469

Bathrooms:

5,638

70,267

Sold

All

100.53,485

Construction Type:

# Units Change

Sq Ft:

Jan-08

2 Years (Monthly)

All MLS:

All

-26.0

Lot Size:Period:

100.8

Jan-10

Bedrooms:

KEY INFORMATION

Percent Change

2,830

Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)Arizona Regional MLS

Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

1 ofBrokerMetrics® 2 02/14/10

Supply & Demand - # Units (FS, UC, Sold)2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Market Dynamics The Melcher Agency

# Properties # PropertiesAverage DOM# PropertiesSOLD

# PropertiesFOR SALE

Average DOM Average DOMUNDER CONTRACT

Average DOMNEW LISTINGS

# PropertiesEXPIRED

Time Period

137 12,789Jan-10 18991 4,84084 5,6386,95451,972162 10,220Dec-09 17692 3,97186 7,4385,81248,966176 10,581Nov-09 17889 3,76086 7,2766,00348,509185 12,778Oct-09 18389 4,03085 7,8597,47349,431197 12,209Sep-09 18993 3,98487 7,6417,88748,524205 12,187Aug-09 18899 4,10789 7,7618,15348,575215 12,470Jul-09 202110 4,99495 8,8348,09449,476223 12,315Jun-09 201116 5,182107 9,0668,70750,895231 10,705May-09 198120 5,795123 9,0348,87753,252229 10,864Apr-09 191122 6,093122 8,35110,54059,180226 13,974Mar-09 184127 6,993124 7,4269,50664,815232 12,380Feb-09 179122 6,815127 5,3197,21764,873236 13,441Jan-09 201114 8,811125 4,5946,29967,603238 11,668Dec-08 186108 7,765115 5,4095,05566,982239 12,139Nov-08 181111 7,088107 4,2674,49066,892238 14,336Oct-08 178116 7,646108 5,2585,01567,414238 13,929Sep-08 180101 7,897115 5,9775,38066,355238 13,261Aug-08 185114 7,689106 5,4915,53965,654234 13,196Jul-08 179124 8,801119 5,8566,84568,039234 13,250Jun-08 184132 9,165125 5,6076,13770,145234 12,746May-08 179128 8,703128 5,4385,68871,286234 13,457Apr-08 177135 8,623131 4,6385,45472,617235 13,173Mar-08 180132 8,253133 4,1334,57071,983237 12,700Feb-08 173138 7,870134 3,2763,86570,545237 15,540Jan-08 169139 8,953137 2,8083,46970,267

02/14/10 2Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

2 ofBrokerMetrics®

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)Market Dynamics

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

The Melcher Agency

All MLS:

-65.4

Price:

84

ARMLS Bedrooms:

-53

Period:

Jan-10MSI

2 Years (Monthly)


6

Residential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)

Percent Change

137

Property Types:

KEY INFORMATION

DOM

AllAll Lot Size:All

-11Jan-08

17 Change

Sq Ft:AllAll Bathrooms:MLS: AllConstruction Type:

-38.9


BrokerMetrics® 1 of 2 02/14/10

The Melcher AgencyMarket DynamicsMonths Supply of Inventory (MSI)

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Period NAR MSI # Properties SoldUnder ContractAverage DOM

Months Supplyof Inventory

# Properties For SaleLast Day of Month

# PropertiesUnder Contract

Time

7.1Jan-10 6,954 84 5,63840,1785.8

5.3Dec-09 5,812 86 7,43839,1836.7

5.3Nov-09 6,003 86 7,27638,7466.5

4.8Oct-09 7,473 85 7,85937,9285.1

4.8Sep-09 7,887 87 7,64136,6534.6

4.7Aug-09 8,153 89 7,76136,3154.5

4.1Jul-09 8,094 95 8,83436,3884.5

4.1Jun-09 8,707 107 9,06637,0064.3

4.3May-09 8,877 123 9,03438,5804.3

5.1Apr-09 10,540 122 8,35142,5474.0

6.5Mar-09 9,506 124 7,42648,3165.1

9.6Feb-09 7,217 127 5,31950,8417.0

11.4Jan-09 6,299 125 4,59452,4938.3

10.0Dec-08 5,055 115 5,40954,16210.7

13.0Nov-08 4,490 107 4,26755,31412.3

10.4Oct-08 5,015 108 5,25854,75310.9

8.9Sep-08 5,380 115 5,97753,0789.9

9.5Aug-08 5,539 106 5,49152,4269.5

8.9Jul-08 6,845 119 5,85652,3937.7

9.8Jun-08 6,137 125 5,60754,8438.9

10.5May-08 5,688 128 5,43856,89510.0

12.6Apr-08 5,454 131 4,63858,54010.7

14.3Mar-08 4,570 133 4,13359,16012.9

18.0Feb-08 3,865 134 3,27658,81015.2

20.6Jan-08 3,469 137 2,80857,84516.7

2 02/14/10Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

BrokerMetrics® 2 of

The Melcher AgencyMarket Dynamics

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10Basic Absorption

MLS:

-2,751Residual Inventory

Jan-08

15,540

All

29,779

AllResidential: (Single Family-Detached, Patio Home, Townhouse, Apartment, Loft, Other)Property Types:

AllBathrooms:Construction Type:

12,7896,954

43,348

AllPrice:

Change

All

100.5-17.7-31.3

Sq Ft:

-13,569

Lot Size:Bedrooms:

3,469

KEY INFORMATION

All

All MLS:

3,485

Jan-10

New

ARMLS

Percent Change


2 Years (Monthly)

Under Contract

Period:


BrokerMetrics® 1 of 2 02/14/10

Basic AbsorptionMarket Dynamics The Melcher Agency

2 Years (Monthly) 01/01/08 - 01/31/10

Period Properties Listed# Properties

Under Contract# New # Residual

Inventory PropertiesUnder Contract /

New %Under Contract /

Residual Inventory %Time

6,954Jan-10 12,789 54.3729,779 23.355,812Dec-09 10,220 56.8730,841 18.856,003Nov-09 10,581 56.7330,078 19.967,473Oct-09 12,778 58.4827,957 26.737,887Sep-09 12,209 64.6027,398 28.798,153Aug-09 12,187 66.9027,222 29.958,094Jul-09 12,470 64.9127,084 29.888,707Jun-09 12,315 70.7028,015 31.088,877May-09 10,705 82.9230,556 29.05

10,540Apr-09 10,864 97.0234,228 30.799,506Mar-09 13,974 68.0337,271 25.517,217Feb-09 12,380 58.3040,416 17.866,299Jan-09 13,441 46.8640,830 15.435,055Dec-08 11,668 43.3243,941 11.504,490Nov-08 12,139 36.9944,404 10.115,015Oct-08 14,336 34.9842,087 11.925,380Sep-08 13,929 38.6240,734 13.215,539Aug-08 13,261 41.7740,752 13.596,845Jul-08 13,196 51.8740,859 16.756,137Jun-08 13,250 46.3242,951 14.295,688May-08 12,746 44.6345,288 12.565,454Apr-08 13,457 40.5346,198 11.814,570Mar-08 13,173 34.6946,905 9.743,865Feb-08 12,700 30.4346,927 8.243,469Jan-08 15,540 22.3243,348 8.00

2 02/14/10Information not guaranteed. © 2010 - 2011 Terradatum and its suppliers and licensors (http://www.terradatum.com/metrics/licensors).

BrokerMetrics® 2 of

FEBRUARY 2010 HISTORICAL INFORMATION PHOENIX AREA FEBRUARY 2010

MARKET CONDITION REPORTMARICOPA COUNTY

CLOSING CLOSINGS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS PERCENT.

MONTHCLOSINGPRICE CHANGE

CLOSINGSEVALUATED

CLOSINGSREO

CLOSINGSSHORT

CLOSINGSSTANDARD

PERCENT SELLING

Jan‐09 $130,000 4,269 2,871 390 1,008 37%Feb‐09 $128,000 ‐$2,000 4,899 3,294 439 1,166 46%Mar‐09 $120,750 ‐$7,250 6,914 4,713 652 1,549 55%Apr‐09 $118,160 ‐$2,590 7,704 5,146 726 1,832 62%May‐09 $122,000 $3,840 8,275 5,321 863 2,091 66%Jun‐09 $130,000 $8,000 8,265 4,812 1,043 2,410 70%

$ $


CLOSINGSEVALUATED

CLOSINGSREO

CLOSINGSSHORT

CLOSINGSSTANDARD

PERCENT SELLING

Jan‐09 $130,000 4,269 2,871 390 1,008 37%Feb‐09 $128,000 ‐$2,000 4,899 3,294 439 1,166 46%Mar‐09 $120,750 ‐$7,250 6,914 4,713 652 1,549 55%Apr‐09 $118,160 ‐$2,590 7,704 5,146 726 1,832 62%May‐09 $122,000 $3,840 8,275 5,321 863 2,091 66%Jun‐09 $130,000 $8,000 8,265 4,812 1,043 2,410 70%Jul‐09 $130,000 $0 7,979 4,323 1,183 2,473 69%Aug‐09 $131,000 $1,000 7,005 3,640 1,224 2,141 72%Sep‐09 $135,995 $4,995 6,856 3,318 1,239 2,299 69%Oct‐09 $135,000 ‐$995 7,009 3,120 1,314 2,575 69%Nov‐09 $136,000 $1,000 6,509 2,638 1,257 2,614 70%Dec‐09 $135,000 ‐$1,000 6,637 2,825 1,502 2,310 69%Jan‐10 $130,000 ‐$5,000 5,071 2,138 1,177 1,756 59%

AREAON

MARKET(SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH

(DEMAND)FAIL

MONTHIN

ESCROWPERCENTSELLING

TIME TO SELL

(DAYS)MONTHSSUPPLY

MARKETSPEED

MEDIANASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW

PRICE

MEDIANCLOSEPRICE

Avondale 575 150 47 233 76% 68 3.8 51 $110 $102 $108

OVERALL MARKET (ORDERED ON MARKET SPEED)Historical Information for Jan‐10 (reviewed and adjusted 2/2010) is a close estimate only‐subject to future revision


CLOSINGSEVALUATED

CLOSINGSREO

CLOSINGSSHORT

CLOSINGSSTANDARD

PERCENT SELLING


TOTALS $0 87,392 48,159 13,009 26,224AVERAGE $0 6,722 55% 15% 30% 62%

Avondale 575 150 47 233 76% 68 3.8 51 $110 $102 $108Queen Creek 1,001 254 103 399 71% 80 3.9 50 $130 $120 $113Goodyear 758 166 71 237 70% 85 4.6 43 $170 $162 $145Glendale 1,362 295 125 521 70% 66 4.6 43 $130 $112 $110Phoenix 6,878 1,397 755 2,216 65% 79 4.9 40 $150 $106 $96Surprise 1,451 292 139 520 68% 78 5.0 40 $149 $135 $135Chandler 1,545 278 144 410 66% 92 5.6 35 $215 $187 $190Peoria 1,312 231 111 442 68% 89 5.7 35 $190 $163 $160Anthem 240 42 27 111 61% 86 5.7 35 $215 $175 $205

$ $ $


CLOSINGSEVALUATED

CLOSINGSREO

CLOSINGSSHORT

CLOSINGSSTANDARD

PERCENT SELLING


TOTALS $0 87,392 48,159 13,009 26,224AVERAGE $0 6,722 55% 15% 30% 62%

Mesa 2,720 463 254 786 65% 90 5.9 34 $160 $135 $131Gilbert 1,812 305 152 602 67% 95 5.9 33 $200 $187 $185Tempe 521 80 62 119 56% 81 6.5 30 $200 $176 $174Sun City 503 70 44 113 61% 102 7.2 27 $145 $130 $125Scottsdale 3,470 340 346 521 50% 157 10.2 19 $644 $400 $400Fountain Hills 414 36 47 62 44% 162 11.5 17 $499 $382 $330TOTALS 24,562 4,401 2,427 7,292 64% 89 5.6 35 $180 $135 $131

MARKET SPEED measures the rate of conversion of listings to closings. The higher this number, the faster the market is converting. The area with the highest speed is the "quickest" market and is the most desirable to buyers. (Red font in Median In Escrow Price column


CLOSINGSEVALUATED

CLOSINGSREO

CLOSINGSSHORT

CLOSINGSSTANDARD

PERCENT SELLING


TOTALS $0 87,392 48,159 13,009 26,224AVERAGE $0 6,722 55% 15% 30% 62%

MARKET SPEED measures the rate of conversion of listings to closings. The higher this number, the faster the market is converting. The area with the highest speed is the "quickest" market and is the most desirable to buyers. (Red font in Median In Escrow Price column signals expected price weakness.)

Market Speed has declined from 61 in July 2009, to 51 in September, to the current 35. Overall, the gradual slowing trend continues. Consequently, Months Supply has increased and Percent Selling declined. Net inventory in escrow has begun to rise signaling the slowing trend will begin to reverse and closings will gradually increase. Note the price history in Historical Information. Median Price is gyrating between $118K in April of 2009 to $136K in November. Clearly, this is a market in search of bottom and that bottom occurred in April of 2009 at $118K median. Since then, the schedule has risen into the mid $130's. All other things being equal, and given that In Escrow Price is on the rise, look for stabilization with gradual positive trending of the price schedule. For those buyers awaiting bottom,


CLOSINGSEVALUATED

CLOSINGSREO

CLOSINGSSHORT

CLOSINGSSTANDARD

PERCENT SELLING


TOTALS $0 87,392 48,159 13,009 26,224AVERAGE $0 6,722 55% 15% 30% 62%

MARKET SPEED measures the rate of conversion of listings to closings. The higher this number, the faster the market is converting. The area with the highest speed is the "quickest" market and is the most desirable to buyers. (Red font in Median In Escrow Price column signals expected price weakness.)

Market Speed has declined from 61 in July 2009, to 51 in September, to the current 35. Overall, the gradual slowing trend continues. Consequently, Months Supply has increased and Percent Selling declined. Net inventory in escrow has begun to rise signaling the slowing trend will begin to reverse and closings will gradually increase. Note the price history in Historical Information. Median Price is gyrating between $118K in April of 2009 to $136K in November. Clearly, this is a market in search of bottom and that bottom occurred in April of 2009 at $118K median. Since then, the schedule has risen into the mid $130's. All other things being equal, and given that In Escrow Price is on the rise, look for stabilization with gradual positive trending of the price schedule. For those buyers awaiting bottom, their time to act is as soon as possible. Note the report is sorted on Market Speed. This will place those areas most popular with buyers at the top of the report.


CLOSINGSEVALUATED

CLOSINGSREO

CLOSINGSSHORT

CLOSINGSSTANDARD

PERCENT SELLING


TOTALS $0 87,392 48,159 13,009 26,224AVERAGE $0 6,722 55% 15% 30% 62%

Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.

AREAON

MARKET(SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH

(DEMAND)FAIL

MONTHIN


TIME TO SELL

(DAYS)MONTHSSUPPLY

MARKETSPEED

MEDIANASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW

PRICE

MEDIANCLOSEPRICE

Anthem 11 11 0 23 100% 45 1.0 191 $209 $164 $160Avondale 109 79 4 94 95% 43 1.4 143 $110 $95 $104

MARICOPA COUNTY MARKET CONDITION REPORTREO ONLY (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED) FEBRUARY 2010FEBRUARY 2010

Avondale 109 79 4 94 95% 43 1.4 143 $110 $95 $104Goodyear 111 72 6 74 93% 59 1.6 127 $150 $139 $135Queen Creek 127 80 7 99 92% 56 1.6 124 $150 $132 $113Surprise 195 114 10 145 92% 44 1.7 115 $131 $125 $125Peoria 164 96 6 151 94% 62 1.7 115 $150 $140 $140Phoenix 1,224 677 75 767 90% 57 1.8 109 $99 $91 $75Glendale 272 146 11 212 93% 50 1.9 106 $112 $101 $95Chandler 198 97 10 122 91% 71 2.0 96 $181 $159 $158Mesa 385 184 20 264 90% 74 2 1 94 $133 $123 $110

FEBRUARY 2010FEBRUARY 2010

Mesa 385 184 20 264 90% 74 2.1 94 $133 $123 $110Gilbert 199 92 5 155 95% 66 2.2 91 $175 $165 $169Tempe 68 28 4 37 87% 64 2.4 81 $160 $150 $150Sun City 41 16 2 24 89% 62 2.6 76 $110 $134 $127Scottsdale 238 89 17 97 84% 144 2.7 74 $357 $300 $353Fountain Hills 33 12 3 12 83% 137 2.7 73 $450 $538 $329TOTALS 3,375 1,792 178 2,276 91% 63 1.88 105 $149 $140 $115

ON CLOSED TIME TO MEDIAN IN MEDIANSHORT SALE ONLY (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED)


AREAON

MARKET(SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH

(DEMAND)FAIL

MONTHIN


TIME TO SELL

(DAYS)MONTHSSUPPLY

MARKETSPEED

MEDIANASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW

PRICE

MEDIANCLOSEPRICE

Queen Creek 584 185 56 159 77% 135 3.2 62 $115 $115 $105Goodyear 343 90 30 88 75% 128 3.8 52 $140 $175 $129Tempe 158 38 15 30 72% 114 4.2 47 $150 $165 $155Phoenix 2,712 587 281 747 68% 129 4.6 43 $125 $110 $110Chandler 712 151 62 137 71% 148 4.7 42 $185 $185 $186Peoria 593 124 57 164 68% 129 4 8 41 $165 $165 $160


Peoria 593 124 57 164 68% 129 4.8 41 $165 $165 $160Gilbert 923 188 79 256 70% 151 4.9 40 $175 $175 $175Glendale 662 130 67 160 66% 121 5.1 39 $120 $120 $107Mesa 1,052 203 101 240 67% 125 5.2 38 $135 $135 $133Scottsdale 711 137 62 188 69% 181 5.2 38 $385 $360 $335Sun City 70 12 8 20 61% 224 5.8 34 $130 $142 $125Fountain Hills 76 11 6 18 66% 264 6.9 29 $344 $269 $295Avondale 330 36 28 86 56% 125 9.2 22 $104 $104 $102Surprise 713 77 66 216 54% 139 9 3 21 $120 $125 $127


Surprise 713 77 66 216 54% 139 9.3 21 $120 $125 $127Anthem 140 14 16 55 47% 160 10.2 19 $187 $175 $185TOTALS 9,779 1,983 933 2,564 68% 137 4.9 40 $144 $140 $139

AREAON

MARKET(SUPPLY)

CLOSED MONTH

(DEMAND)FAIL

MONTHIN


TIME TO SELL

(DAYS)MONTHSSUPPLY

MARKETSPEED

MEDIANASK PRICE

MEDIAN IN ESCROW

PRICE

MEDIANCLOSEPRICE

Queen Creek 291 80 40 142 67% 41 3.6 54 $165 $120 $122Avondale 138 35 15 54 70% 67 3 9 50 $139 $122 $125

STANDARD ONLY (SORTED ON MARKET SPEED)


Avondale 138 35 15 54 70% 67 3.9 50 $139 $122 $125Anthem 89 18 12 33 60% 53 5.0 39 $272 $234 $255Glendale 430 84 48 150 64% 50 5.1 39 $181 $121 $139Surprise 544 102 63 159 62% 70 5.4 37 $220 $183 $165Gilbert 690 118 69 192 63% 73 5.9 34 $259 $224 $213Goodyear 306 51 35 77 59% 84 6.0 33 $234 $199 $204Chandler 637 105 72 151 59% 70 6.1 32 $265 $215 $218Phoenix 2,948 424 401 707 51% 79 7.0 28 $235 $127 $137Mesa 1 285 178 133 283 57% 86 7 2 27 $195 $145 $155


Mesa 1,285 178 133 283 57% 86 7.2 27 $195 $145 $155Peoria 556 72 47 127 60% 91 7.7 26 $255 $200 $200Sun City 392 48 35 69 58% 100 8.1 24 $155 $129 $125Tempe 295 34 44 52 44% 75 8.7 23 $250 $217 $218Scottsdale 2,523 181 267 236 40% 154 14.0 14 $799 $475 $475Fountain Hills 305 18 39 32 32% 148 16.7 12 $575 $435 $348TOTALS 11,429 1,547 1,319 2,464 54% 85 7.4 27 $290 $170 $180


Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Estimates based on generally accepted statistical sampling practices.


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Reasons Why Short Sales Closings Will Continue To Go Up In 2010

Do you work short sales? If you don’t consider this: In 2009, there were 13,000 short sales closings in Greater Phoenix. In 2010, I estimate there will be between 18,000 to 20,000 short sale closings. This paper briefly touches on why there will be more short sale closings in 2010 and has statistics on short sale closings in 2009.

• Many home are underwater. The market value is less than what is owed. The median home value in December had declined 53% from its peak in June 2006

• In 2010, home values may go up slightly in some areas, they will be flat in most areas, and may decline in other areas.

• The economy.

• Adjustable rate mortgage resetting at higher interest rates.

• The lender usually gets more per square foot for a short sale over a lender owned sale (as seen in Table 2 below).

• The Time Value of Money: If the lender believes a property is in a declining market, they are more likely to consider a short sale since will probably get more money today through a short sale than tomorrow through a lender-owned sale.


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• Sellers are encouraged to complete a Short Sale before December 31, 2012, which is the last day of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation.

• The Federal Government is encouraging shorts sales through their Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA.) The program does not take effect until April 5, 2010, but servicers may implement it before then if they meet certain requirements. The program sunsets on December 31, 2012.

• HAFA is intended to speed up short sale process. Some criteria of the program are:

o The property is the borrower’s principal residence. o The mortgage loan is a first lien mortgage originated on or before January 1, 2009. o The mortgage is delinquent or default is reasonably foreseeable. o The current unpaid balance is equal to or less than $729,740 (the maximum unpaid balance

limit may be $417,000 in Maricopa County. This has not yet been clarified). o The borrower’s total monthly mortgage payment exceeds 31 percent of the borrower’s gross

income. o Provides financial incentives: $1,500 for borrower relocation assistance; $1,000 for

servicers to cover administrative and processing costs; and up to $1,000 for investors for allowing a total of up to $3,000 in short sale proceeds to be distributed to subordinate lien holders.


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Table 1

December 2009

What Residential Property Types Are Buyers Buying?

Residential Sales by All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories

Category Total Sales

No.

Short Sales

No. %

Lender Owned

No. %

Other

No. %

Totals

(total may be 99%-101%

due to rounding)

Single Family Detached 6,642 1,586 24% 2,812 42% 2,244 34% 100%

Townhouse 434 93 21% 217 50% 124 29% 100%

Apartment Style/Flat 379 75 20% 188 50% 116 31% 101%

Patio 108 15 14% 28 26% 65 60% 100%

Manufactured/Mobile Housing

111 4 4% 43 39% 64 58% 101%

Gemini/Twin Home 34 3 9% 12 35% 19 56% 100%

Loft 12 4 33% 3 25% 5 42% 100%

Modular / Pre-Fab 4 0 0% 3 75% 1 25% 100%

Totals 7,724 1,780 23% 3,306 43% 2,638 34% 100%


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Table 3

Number of Lender-Owned Sales and Short Sales

All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Included

Number of Sales Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Lender Owned Sales 3,077 3,566 5,053 5,564 5,835 5,351 4,847 4,067 3,792 3,617 3,048 3,306 Short Sales 419 471 701 783 979 1,152 1,351 1,444 1,454 1,557 1,399 1,780 *Other 1,246 1,439 1,874 2,205 2,470 2,847 2,898 2,527 2,669 2,969 2,993 2,638 Total 4,742 5,476 7,628 8,552 9,284 9,350 9,096 8,038 7,915 8,143 7,440 7,724

Table 4

Percentage of Lender-Owned Sales and Short Sales

All Eight ARMLS Residential Categories Included

Percentage of Sales Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Lender Owned Sales 65% 65% 66% 65% 63% 57% 53% 51% 48% 44% 41% 43% Short Sales 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 15% 18% 18% 19% 19% 23% (Over 20%) *Other 26% 26% 25% 26% 27% 30% 32% 31% 34% 37% 40% 34% 100% 100% 100% 100% 101% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Total Distressed Sales 74% 74% 75% 74% 74% 69% 68% 69% 66% 63% 60% 66% *Other is categorized as neither a lender owned sale or short sale


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Table 5

Supply

ARMLS Listings by Lender-Owned, Short Sales and Other

All ARMLS Residential Categories Included

Listings July 10 Aug 22 Sep 14 Sep 26 Oct 26 Nov 5 Nov 24 Jan 9 Lender-Owned 4,805 15% 4,540 14% 4,350 14% 4,241 14% 4,228 13% 4,587 14% 4,716 14% 5,450 16% Short Sale 7,233 23% 7,477 24% 7,642 24% 7,782 25% 8,120 25% 8,445 25% 8,470 25% 8,728 26% * Other 19,951 62% 19,373 62% 19,233 62% 19,325 62% 19,838 62% 20,190 61% 20,438 61% 19,932 58% Active Listings 31,989 100% 31,390 100% 31,225 100% 31,348 101% 32,186 100% 33,222 100% 33,624 100% 34,110 100%

*Other is categorized as neither a lender owned sale or short sale

Table 6 Estimated Months of Supply on November 24

January 9, 2009 Lender-Owned Listings 5,450 listings divided by 3,306 sales in December = 1.7 month supply January 9, 2009 Short Sale Listings 8,728 listings divided by 1,780 sales in December = 4.9 month supply January 9, 2009 Other Listings 19,932 listings divided by 2,638 sales in December = 7.6 month supply


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This report is for real estate agents only. The data from this report is from ARMLS. This report is for the real estate agent. Residential Focus does not guarantee the accuracy of the data in this report. Some numbers will be adjusted. Report may not reflect all real estate activity. Information should be verified. This article is of a general nature, and is not intended as real estate advice, lending advice or legal advice. Please consult your broker, your lender and your own independent legal counsel. The information in this report may not be the opinion of Grand Canyon Title Agency, Inc.

greater phoenix real estate market snapshot february 2010

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