greater manchester community risk register

Greater ManchesterCommunity Risk Register

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ContentsIntroduction 3

Assessing the risks 4

The Greater Manchester Profile 8

Flooding 10

Severe Weather 14

Transport Accidents 18

Influenza Type Disease 22

Environmental Pollution and Industrial Accidents 26

Loss of Essential Services 28

Mass Gatherings 30

Warning and Informing 32

Get ready for the Unexpected 34

Community resilience 35

Is your Business prepared? 36

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IntroductionGreater Manchester’s Community Risk Register (CRR) is designed to inform you about the key emergency risks that could occur in our county, so you can think about how to be better prepared in your home, your business and your local community. Numerous emergencies occur in the UK every year, but fortunately they don’t happen often in Greater Manchester.

This CRR is produced by the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum (GMRF). We are a partnership made up of all the organisations needed to prepare for and respond to any major emergency in the county. The Civil Contingencies Act (2004) requires every area of the United Kingdom to establish a Local Resilience Forum (LRF), assess emergency risks that are likely to affect the local area and prepare plans to respond to a range of emergencies. Each LRF also has to publish all or part of its risk assessment in a CRR – the document you are reading right now!

Members of the GMRF include

• Emergency Services – Police, Fire and Ambulance

• Local Authorities and Directors of Public Health

• Health Services

• Environment Agency

• MetOffice

• Transport for Greater Manchester

• Highways Agency

• Manchester Airport

• Network Rail

• Utility Companies

• The Military

• Voluntary Agencies

• Department for Communities and Local Government

What is an Emergency?

The Civil Contingencies Act (2004) defines an emergency as:

• An event or situation which threatens serious damage to human welfare in a place in the United Kingdom

• An event or situation which threatens serious damage to the environment of a place in the United Kingdom

• War or terrorism which threatens serious damage to the security of the United Kingdom

All responders work to a set of common objectives, which help to:

• Save life

• Relieve suffering

• Avoid the scale of the emergency becoming more severe

• Protect infrastructure and property

• Facilitate criminal investigations and judicial processes if necessary

• Restore normality as soon as possible

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Assessing the RisksAsmembersoftheGMRF,wefollowanationallydefinedprocessandworktogether to carry out our risk assessments. The process involves six key stages:

Risk Context

The Greater Manchester CRR puts nationally identifiedrisksintoalocalcontext,bylookingat Health, Social, Economic, Geographic and Environmental factors.

Risk Identification

There are many risks that could affect Greater Manchester. Although we have provided information about the risks most relevant to our area and population, our full CRR currently assesses around 70 public emergency hazards definedbythegovernment.Hazardsarenon-malicious risks and are grouped into a number of categories:

• Industrial accidents & technical failure

• Transport accidents

• Severe weather

• Structural

• Human health

• Animal health

• Industrial action

• International Events

In Greater Manchester we have also included a category for Mass Gatherings, as public events and crowded places are a major feature of life in our part of the country. If a risk is assessed it doesn’t mean it will happen. It means we know it is a possibility and have considered the potential consequences when creating our emergency response plans.

Some risks relate to malicious events such as terrorist incidents which we refer to as threats. Intheinterestsofsecurity,specificinformationabout threats is not detailed in the CRR.

Risk Analysis

A separate assessment for each risk in our CRR is carried out for a 5 year time horizon, each coordinated by the most appropriate member of the GMRF. Each assessment results in 2 key scores that are each rated between 1 and 5:

• The likelihood or probability of the incident occurring

• The impact or consequences of an incident. While there are many potential risks, all public emergencies tend to result in consequences that are common to all risks, for example

• Loss of life

• Casualties

RISKCONTEXT

RISKINDENTIFICATION

RISKANALYSIS

RISKEVALUATION

RISKTREATMENT

MONITOR ANDREVIEW

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• Damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure

• Disruption to public services such as transport or utility supplies

• Public anxiety or outrage

• Pollution

• Damage to the local economy

Of course, the severity and mix of consequences varies for each risk – some emergenciescouldresultinsignificantlossof life, others may not be life threatening butcauseasignificantamountofsocialdisruption. A range of factors are used to produce an overall impact score.

Our assessments also consider:

• How the consequences may vary across different areas of Greater Manchester

• Opportunitiestotakepre-emptiveactionto reduce the impact of an impending emergency-egifsevereweatherisforecast

• How best to warn and inform the public

• Any lessons learned from previous incidents

• Existing measures in place to manage the risk

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Risk Evaluation

Analysing the risk assessments helps GMRF members to better understand the relative likelihood of different levels of consequences occurring. For example analysing the expected loss of life from all risks allow us to determine what capabilities we need to maintain in Greater Manchester to deal with the more likely scenarios, and what regional and national support we could call upon to deal with a larger, but thankfully very unlikely level of fatalities.

This diagram illustrates how probability and impact scores are used when we consider the emergency capabilities we need in Greater Manchester.

Significantly lesslikely risks

The proportionate approach for these risks is usually to rely on

existing planning. For new risks in this area more detailed advice will be provided to inform decisions

on how to approach these risks.

Significantly likely risksFor these risks specific planning is usually merited. For new risks in this area of the grid more detailed

advice will be provided on the impacts, existing preparedness and gaps to inform the planning

approach for these risks.

Other high likelihood riskswith unique consequences

These may have consequences not captured by generic planning. For these risks specific planning

for these unique aspects may be merited.

Lower impact risksThe more common risks that are quite plausible but with more moderate impacts – these can be prepared for in a generic way by building capabilities to deal with a wide range of typical consequences.

Catastrophic

5

Significant

4

Moderate

3

Minor

2

Limited

1

Low

1Medium/Low

2Medium

3Medium/High

4High

5

Relative Likelihood

Rel

ativ

e Im

pac

t

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Risk Treatment

Most of our emergency response plans develop capabilities to deal with common consequences of emergencies rather than individual risks. Examples of plans and capabilities include:

• Greater Manchester Generic Response Plan

• Borough evacuation, shelter and humanitarian assistance plans

• Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) assets

• Fatalities and casualties plans

• Site clearance plans

Aligning our emergency capabilities and plans with consequences allows us to use the risk assessments to identify where there may be gaps that we need to manage. Risk treatment allows us to change our existing plans and capabilities, create new capabilities if they are needed, or even scale back capabilities if they

are disproportionate to the expected levels of consequence. A risk treatment plan is agreed by GMRF members, and whilst it’s never possible to eliminate all risk, or close all gaps, this approach means that residual risks and gaps can be reduced to an acceptable level.

Plans based on consequences rather than risks also results in fewer plans that are more useful in a wide range of emergency situations. And a smaller number of plans can be amended more quickly based on updates to risk assessments and lessons learned from exercising plans or from real emergency incidents.

Monitoring & Review

All risks in the CRR are reviewed regularly and changes to assessments are made as required. As a minimum each risk is reviewed every 4 years with reviews taking place sooner if required, for example if there is an emergency incident or changes to government guidance or expert opinions.

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TheGreaterManchesterProfileNationallydefinedrisksmaybemoreorlesslikelytohappenandwillhavediffering impacts in different parts of the country. To understand why some risksaremoresignificantinGreaterManchester,welookatthesocial,health,environmental,infrastructureandeconomicprofileofourcounty.

Thesefactorsalsoinfluencehowwecanprepare for and manage emergencies at a local level. Here are some facts about our county that you may not be aware of:

Social

2.7million people live in Greater Manchester (a6.6%increasefrom2001-2011),makingitthe 3rd most populated area and the 6th most densely populated area in the UK.

Greater Manchester has a diverse population; 8.5% of the population belonging to ethnic minorities with twice the national average population of Jewish and Muslim communities. Greater Manchester has the 3rd highest student population in England with over 100,000 students in higher education attending one of the 5 Universities in the conurbation or the Royal College of Music.

Health

Almost 80% of the people living in Greater Manchester consider their health to be good. ThisisslightlylowerthanthefiguresforEngland and Wales (81.2%) but marginally higher than for the North West average (79.3%).

Across Greater Manchester there are more peoplereportinglimitinglong-termillnessesthan there are nationally (19.4% compared to 17.9%). However, Greater Manchester is marginally lower than the North West average (20.2%). There are also variations across Greater Manchester with higher levels of limitinglong-termillnessinWigan(21.5%)andlower levels in Trafford (17.0%).

Just over 10% of people provide unpaid care to family members, friends, neighbours orothersbecauseoflong-termphysicalor

mental health, disability, or problems related to old age. There are higher concentrations of carers in Wigan (11.5%) and lower proportions in Manchester (8.5%).

Environment

Greater Manchester is a large and complex area, covering some 500 square miles. Although often perceived as urban, Greater Manchester has a mix of high density urban areas,suburbs,semi-ruralandrurallocationswith a wide and varied range of wildlife. The ten districts are characterised by different landscapes from the ancient wooded cloughs of Bolton, Bury and Stockport, the moorland expanses of Rochdale and Oldham and the vast reed beds that characterise Wigan.

Much of Greater Manchester’s heritage is derived from its past international importance asanindustrialcapital.Asthesepost-industrial sites have fallen into disuse wildlife has colonised these areas and is now highly valued. Some have been recognised as being internationally important. There are over 20 sitesofSpecialScientificInterest(SSSI)intheregion.

GreaterManchesterhas13riversflowingthrough it including the Mersey, the Irwell and the Tame which all rise in the Pennines. It also contains dozens of reservoirs as well as Hollingworth Lake and many canals and branches including the Manchester Ship Canal which stretches from the Mersey Estuary and past the docks at Salford Quays.

Greater Manchester also has an extraordinarily important and diverse history which is reflectedinarichhistoricenvironmentof archaeological sites, monuments and buildings.

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Infrastructure

Greater Manchester has many important transport links and acts as a central hub for rail travel in the North West. The recently expanded Metrolink tram system also operates in 7 of our 10 boroughs and over 20 million passengers used Manchester Airport, the 3rd busiest in the UK in 2013.

Many strategic motorway routes also pass through Greater Manchester, many linking with the M60 orbital motorway. Currently under construction, Port Salford, will be the UKs firstinlandtri-model(sea,railandroad)goodsport.

Economy

Greater Manchester’s economy developed during the industrial revolution, with towns growing around textile industry mills. After a period of economic decline post WW1, GreaterManchesterhasre-invigorateditselfbecomingthelargestsub-regionaleconomyintheUKoutsideofLondonandSouth-EastEngland, contributing £38.3billion to the regional measure of Gross Value Added.

Greater Manchester contains 40% of the North West’s top 500 companies. The 1.1million strong active workforce is highly skilled with 17% of the adult population havinggraduateorpost-graduatelevelqualifications.

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FloodingAstheeventsinthesouthwestofEnglandinthewinterof2013-14haveshown,floodingcanaffectmanyaspectsofourlives.Overthecomingyears,changes in weather patterns, increasing temperatures and rising sea levels, arelikelytoincreasethelikelihoodoffloodingintheUK.

History

TheBoscastlefloodingin2004wascausedby excessive rainfall which the river could not hold,andthefloodsweretheworstinlocalmemory. Torrential rain led to a 2 metre rise in river levels in one hour, and a 3 metre wave surged down the main road. It is estimated that20milliontonnesofwaterflowedthoughBoscastle that day.

In the summer of 2007, three people died after the River Severn burst its banks, floodinglocationsincludingGloucesterandTewkesbury. About 140,000 people were without water supplies for more than a week and thousands of motorists were stranded overnight on the M5. In Hull, 10,000 homes wereevacuatedduetofloodingwithsomeresidents unable to return to their homes for many months. 700 council staff were taken off their normal duties to join local area teams helpingthosedisplacedbyflooding.

In2009atCockermouth,floodwaterwasbetweenfivetoeightfeetdeepinplaces,andit took nearly a year for some businesses to reopenfollowingtheflooding.

In Greater Manchester

Flooding is one of the highest emergency risksinourcounty.Thetwoformsoffloodingmostlikelytoaffectusareriverfloodingandsurfacewaterfloodingcausedbyexcessrainfall.Thesetypesoffloodingcan,andoften do, occur simultaneously. We have an average of 140 rainy days a year producing over 800mm of rainfall. Our main rivers include the Medlock, Irwell, and Mersey, and their tributaries.

OverhalftheUK’smostsignificantreservoirsasdefinedbytheEnvironmentAgencyareeither located in Greater Manchester or the waterwouldflowintousfromneighbouringcounties if the structure failed. Although the impact of a reservoir dam failure could be catastrophic if it occurred without warning, the health and safety legislation and stringent monitoring regimes in place means the likelihood of such an incident is deemed to be extremely low.

The Consequences

• Risk to life

• Injuries, health and psychological impacts

• Damage to homes and businesses, sometime rendering them uninhabitable for periods of time

• Damage to roads and infrastructure

• Disruption to utilities such as electricity and water

• Pollution and contamination of the local environment

• Economic damage to businesses, tourism and agriculture

• Some of the consequences may take months or even years to recover from in theeventofseriousflooding.

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What are we doing in Greater Manchester?

Many agencies are involved in responding to floods.TheEnvironmentAgencymaintainsandoperatesflooddefencesandprovidesa24-hourfloodwarningserviceforpropertiesatriskfromriverandtidalflooding.YourLocal Authority also has a leading role in any responsetoflooding.AsmembersoftheGMRF we are also working to manage the risk offloodinginGreaterManchesterby

• Creatingboroughmulti-agencyfloodresponse plans and identifying vulnerable locationsatriskoffloodingsuchasschools or hospitals

• Developing guidance and a range of methodstowarnthepublicaboutfloodriskandforecastedflooding

• Ensuring we have capability to provide temporary shelter or accommodation for residentsaffectedbyflooding

• Working to improve our understanding of the potential impact of a reservoir dam failure

• Continuing to invest in maintaining and improvingflooddefencesinourhigh-riskareas

• Working to map and improve our understanding of areas at high risk of surfacewaterflooding

Preparing for Flooding - what can you do?

It’s important to understand the risk where you live and work by visiting the Environment Agency website. If your home or business is inafloodwarningzonethenyoucanregisterfor the Flood Warnings Direct (FWD) service bycalling08459881188-callsarechargedat the local rate. FWD is a free service that issuesadvancewarningoffloodingviayourtelephone, mobile, fax or pager 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The service issues 3 categoriesoffloodwarning:

Severe Flood WarningSevere flooding. Danger to life.

Flood WarningFlooding is expected. Immediate action required

Flood AlertFlooding is possible. Be prepared.

Status

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There are a number of additional actions you cantaketoprepareforflooding.

• Consider how you might protect your property and possessions in the event of aflood.Sandbagsprovideonlylimitedprotectionagainstfloodingandmanylocal authorities do not provide them to residentsduringfloods.VisittheNationalFlood Forum for more information about how to prepare your home

• Make an emergency plan in case you need to evacuate – this includes where you will go and what to take

• Consider purchasing emergency supplies for 3 days, including bottled water and non-perishablefoods

• Move important documents and irreplaceable items to a higher level in your property

• Ensure you have adequate insurance

If Flooding is predicted?

• Consider any neighbours who may need your help, such as the elderly, disabled or those with young children

• ContactFWDon08459881188tofindoutwhatfloodwarningsareinforceinyour area at any time of day or night. Flood warnings, updated every 15 minutes can also be viewed on the Environment Agency website www.environment-agency.gov.uk/floodline

• Pay attention to local media such as regional TV and local radio

• Follow the advice of emergency services

Staying Safe during a Flood

• Neverswiminfloodwater–youmaygetsweptawayevenifthewaterisflowingata moderate rate

• Avoidwalkingorplayinginfloodwater.Itcan often be contaminated with sewage and other chemicals and disguise hidden

dangers such as missing manhole covers or electricity cables

• Don’tdrivethroughfloodwater–evenshallowdepthscancausevehiclestofloatand render them totally uncontrollable. 80%offlooddeathsoccurinvehicles

Want to know more?

Moreinformationonpastfloods,floodmaps,and practical guides on protecting your home duringafloodeventcanbefoundontheEnvironment Agency website

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk

For more useful ideas about how you can prepareforaflood,visit:

http://nationalfloodforum.org.uk

http://www.knowyourfloodrisk.co.uk

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Severe Weather Storms, snow, gales and extreme temperatures affect all parts of the UK from time to time. Over the coming years we are likely to see an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in the UK.

History

The worst storm since 1703 hit the UK in October 1987 when 115mph winds caused 15 million uprooted trees, £1.5 billion worth of damage and 18 deaths. Twenty years later in January 2007 a storm with 77mph winds battered the UK causing widespread damage to trees and buildings, power disruption and nine deaths.

The hot summer of 2003 is estimated to have resulted in more than two thousand excess deaths, mainly among vulnerable people. Temperatures in Greater Manchester during this time reached as high as 30°C in the city centre and surrounding region. Since then, the Heat Health Watch system has been introduced to alert responders to the heightened risk to vulnerable people and the hotweatherofJuly2006sawsignificantlyfewer excess deaths recorded.

December 2009 to January 2010 was referred to as ‘The Big Freeze’ as it was the coldestwinterintheUKsince1962-63.TheDepartment of Health estimated there would be up to 40,000 deaths in the UK that year due to the prolonged cold spell. Temperatures reachedalowof-17.6°CinGreaterManchester causing treacherous conditions on motorways and roads, disruption to public transport and some school closures.

Thewinterof2013-14sawanunusuallyhigh number of storm systems hitting the UK, causing widespread coastal and inland floodinganddamagetotransportandutilitiesinfrastructure.


The main types of severe weather that we plan for in Greater Manchester include heavy rain or snow, storms and gales, low temperatures

and heat waves. Our position in the North West of England means we are more exposed than other parts of the UK to strong winds due to our relatively close proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and large upland areas.

Ourmixofhighlypopulatedbuilt-upurbanareas,suburbs,semi-ruralandruralareasspread across some 500 square miles means we are reliant on road networks and public transport to go about our daily lives. During severe weather these services are often seriously disrupted.

In February 2014 our local emergency services declared a major incident as strong windsdamagedbuildings,up-rootedtreesand caused major transport disruption in the county. On one evening Greater Manchester Police received over 1000 weather related calls and over 350 calls for help were made to Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue.

There is nothing we can do at a local level to reduce the likelihood of severe weather however forecasts usually provide timely warning of most events and general safety advice to the public. Our main priority is to be prepared for these events in order to stay safe and maintain essential services.

Consequences

The consequences depend on the type of weather and are varied but include:

• Excess deaths among vulnerable people caused by extreme high and low temperatures

• Danger to life caused by unsafe structures andflooding

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• Health effects such as respiratory problems, sunburn, heatstroke and hypothermia

• Water shortages and usage restrictions caused by drought

• Damage to property and buildings

• Disruption to road and public transport and damage to infrastructure

• Disruption and damage to utility supply and infrastructure

• Disruption to emergency and public services

• Economic disruption to local businesses


Members of the GMRF maintain a range of measures and plans to respond to severe weather events, including:

• DistributingMetOfficesevereweatherwarnings to ensure responders take action to prepare for severe weather and are ready to respond to the consequences

• Planningtoaddressspecificconsequences of severe weather such as gritting routes for main roads

• Arranging to warn and inform the public about the consequences of severe weather such as transport disruption and school closures via websites and social media

• Identifying and supporting people who may be vulnerable to extreme temperatures

• Maintaining Business Continuity plans so that emergency and public services continue to function throughout periods of severe weather

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Severe Weather - what can you do?

• Listen to weather forecasts and act on any warnings of extreme weather.

Yellow:Beaware.Severeweatherispossibleoverthenextfewdaysandcouldaffectyou.Yellowmeans that you should plan ahead thinking about possible travel delays, or the disruption of your day to day activities.

Amber:Beprepared.Youneedtobepreparedtochangeyourplansandprotectyou,yourfamilyand community from the impacts of the severe weather.

Red: Take action. Extreme weather is expected. Red means you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the weather. Widespread damage, travel and power disruptionandrisktolifeislikely.Youmustavoiddangerousareasandfollowtheadviceoftheemergency services and local authorities.

• Follow advice from the emergency services, the NHS and your local authorities in order to minimise your risk. Examples include:

o Avoidnon-essentialtravel during storms and severe winter weather

o Secure loose objects if strong winds are expected

o Keep your home cool and drink plenty of water during hot weather

• Tune in to regional TV bulletins or local radio for the latest news and updates

• Plan any journeys or activities with the weather in mind. Allow extra time for travel or cancel activities that may become dangerous in severe weather

• If you have to travel in severe weather make sure you have adequate clothing and

emergency supplies in your vehicle such as food and shovels


Want to know more?

For information and resources on preparing for and keeping safe during a severe weather event please visit the Greater Manchester Prepared website.

http://www.agma.gov.uk/greater-manchester-prepared

Weather forecasts and severe weather warnings in your area are available from the MetOfficewebsite.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Yourlocalauthoritywebsitemayalsoprovideinformationandnewsspecifictoyourareaand contact details if you have concerns or questions.

WARNINGSNOW

WARNINGRAIN

WARNINGWIND

WARNINGSNOW

WARNINGRAIN

WARNINGWIND

WARNINGSNOW

WARNINGRAIN

WARNINGWIND

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Transport EmergenciesAlmost all of us will rely on our transport infrastructure to get to and from work, receive essential services or go about our daily lives. Transport emergencies can be the result of accidents but also disruption caused by severe weather suchassnowandfloods.

An incident can be further complicated by extremes of temperature if people are trapped in their vehicles for long periods of time, or if vehicles carrying chemicals or other hazardous substances are involved.

History

Although transport accidents are rare they canhavesignificantconsequences,includingfatalities and serious injuries.

In 1985, a British Airtours Flight was departing from Manchester Airport when one of the enginescaughtfireontherunway.54passengers and 2 crew members died in the incident.

The Eccles Rail Crash in December 1984 occurred when an express passenger train collided with the rear of an oil tanker train. The driver of the express and 2 passengers were killed, while another 68 passengers were injured.

In June 2011 a 5 vehicle collision on the M62 near Eccles, including two coaches carrying approximately 80 school children, left 50 people injured and resulted in a 4 hour closure of the motorway.


Greater Manchester lies at the heart of the North West transport network with around 1 million commuter journeys made every weekdaymorning.Wehavethelargesttravel-to-work-areaofanycityintheUKoutsideLondon. An additional 140,000 people come into the county from neighbouring areas each day and 100,000 head out of the region. Manchester Airport, located in the south of Greater Manchester, is the third busiest airport in the UK.

Each aspect of the multimodal transport network we have in Greater Manchester is at risk from accidents or disruption.

Road

In 2009 an average of 97,000 vehicles used key sections of Greater Manchester’s 85 miles of motorways during every working day. In the same year over 9,000 people were injured on GreaterManchester’sroadswiththefinancialcost of these accidents being estimated at around £225 million.

Greater Manchester contains a higher percentage of the motorway network than any other county in the country and this network links Manchester with Leeds (M62 East), Liverpool and Warrington (M62 West), The Lake District and Scotland (M6 North) and Birmingham, Bristol, Wales and London (M6 South). Greater Manchester also has the fully orbital M60 motorway ring road. Most motorways are maintained by the Highways Agency.

Most road accidents can be dealt with by the routine capabilities of the three emergency services. However, serious incidents may involve other responders and the need for multi-agencyresponsearrangements.

Metrolink

Around 26 million journeys are made on Greater Manchester’s Metrolink every year and the network has become one of the most successful light rail systems in the UK. Continuing improvement and expansion projects mean that by 2016 Metrolink will be three times its original size and the largest network of its kind in the country with 60 miles of track, 94 trams and 99 stops. This expansion means more people have the potential to be affected by an incident or service disruption.

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Rail

Greater Manchester’s rail network covers nearly 150 miles and includes 96 stations. Around 21,000 passengers use the service during the weekday morning peak. Manchester Piccadilly, Stockport and Bolton are the busiest stations in Greater Manchester, with more than 22 million journeys to and from Piccadilly every year. Rail use in Greater Manchester has increased by 33% between 2001 and 2010.

Bus

There are more than 30 bus operators running services in Greater Manchester, with over 12,000 bus stops, 22 stations and over 225 million journeys by passengers every year. Transport for Greater Manchester has invested in over 170 miles of Quality Bus Corridors which has resulted in a 19% reduction in accidents.

Air

Manchester Airport is the international gateway for the North of England and the UK’s largest regional airport, with more than 100 airlines, 225 destinations worldwide and 22 million passengers a year. By 2030 this number is expected to rise to 50 million passengersayear.In2007-2008therewere220,307commercial,cargoandprivateflightsfrom Manchester Airport.

The consequences

• Fatalities and serious injuries

• People trapped or stranded in vehicles, potentially in extreme weather conditions

• Disruption to normal transport services

• Delays for emergency service vehicles

• Environmental impacts if goods or fuel is spilled into the local environment

• Damage to buildings or infrastructure

• Economic disruption to local businesses through delayed or failed deliveries


• The Greater Manchester Casualty Reduction Partnership continues to implement road safety projects such as ‘Drive to Live’ aimed at young drivers and the Road Users Awareness Campaign launched May 2013

• The Highways Agency is working to turn parts of the M60 and M62 into ‘Smart Motorways’ which allows the use of the hard shoulder as a lane during rush hour. These schemes have shown to reduce the severity of accidents in other areas of the country

• Emergency responders regularly test emergency plans at key transport locations such as Piccadilly Rail station and Manchester Airport

Transport Emergencies - What can you do?

• Carry an emergency kit in your car and basic items such as food and drink whenyoutravel.Youmaynotbedirectlyinvolved in an accident but any transport disruption could last for hours

• Know and follow the Highway code, adhere to speed limits and drive safely

• Ensure your vehicle is kept in a roadworthy and safe condition

• Follow the instructions of emergency services and transport operator staff

• Avoidnon-essentialjourneysduringtimesof severe weather

• Report any unaccompanied or suspicious packages to public transport staff

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Want to know more?

Further information about transport in Greater Manchester is available at:

Transport for Greater Manchesterhttp://www.tfgm.com

Highways Agencyhttp://www.highways.gov.uk

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InfluenzaTypeDiseaseAninfluenza(flu)pandemicisaworldwideeventinwhichmanypeopleareinfectedwithafluvirusinashorttime.Apandemiccouldaffectuptohalfofthe UK population and cause thousands of deaths.

The World Health Organisation considers an outbreak to be a pandemic when:

• The infectious agent hasn’t been seen before and there is no natural immunity to it

• The agent infects humans

• It spreads easily and survives in humans

Unlikeanormalfluvirus,whichhasa‘season’,typicallyOctobertoMayintheUK,aflupandemic can occur at any time. Based on the experience of previous pandemics, a pandemic is likely to occur in one or more waves, possibly weeks or months apart. Each wave may last around 15 weeks and up to half the population could be directly affected.

History

Themostnotableinfluenzapandemicofthelast century occurred in 1918 and is often referredtoas‘Spanishflu’.Itcausedseriousillness, with an estimated 20 to 40 million deaths worldwide, the largest death rate being in people aged 20 to 45. In the UK alone there were an estimated 228,000 additional deaths.DuringtheSpanishflupandemic,Scottish doctor James Niven led the way in Manchester, enforcing preventative measures for reducing the spread of the virus, unheard of at the time.

More recently, most of us will remember the Swine Flu (H1N1) epidemic in 2009. Although Swine Flu was considered relatively mild, in a short time it killed up to 457 people in the UK alone and cost the UK economy an estimated £1.24 billion.


In Greater Manchester we estimate that 1 in 4 peoplearevulnerabletoflu.Thesixhighriskgroups include:

• Children under 5, especially those under 2

years old

• Adults aged 65 and over

• Pregnant women

• People with existing medical conditions, such as asthma, kidney disease, and heart disease

• Those with a weakened immune system

• Health and social care professionals

It is advisable for those who are vulnerable to getthefluvaccinationeachyearforseasonalflu,andthevaccinationforthepandemicfluwhen it becomes available. If you think you need it, speak to your GP or practice nurse.

The consequences

Basedonhistoricalinformation,scientificevidence and modelling, the following impacts are predicted for future pandemics:

• Many millions of people around the world will become infected causing global disruption and a potential humanitarian crisis

• Up to half the UK population may become infected with between 50,000 and 750,000 additional deaths by the end of a pandemic

• Health care and local authority social care systems will become extremely stretched and possibly overloaded. Vulnerable people may be exposed to lower levels of care

• Normal life is likely to face widespread disruption. Staff shortages will affect the provision of emergency and essential services, utilities and the production and transportation of goods

• Asignificantimpactonlocal,nationalandworldwide economies

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© Crown copyright 2007 284556/A4 1p 80k Nov07 (BEL)

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• Plansareinplacetomanageasignificantincrease in demand for NHS and social care services

• Planstodistributeanti-viralmedicationtothe public are in place if required

• Vaccination programmes can be implemented, once a suitable vaccine has been developed for the particular strain of flu

• Public awareness campaigns provide advice about how to reduce the spread of fluviruses

• Plans are in place to manage a increased number of deaths

• Local Authorities and the government can provide advice to local businesses about coping with staff shortages

Pandemic Influenza – What can you do?

One of the most important things you can do is to help prevent the spread of the virus. Thefluvirusisspreadthroughsmalldropletsoffluidscoughedorsneezedintotheairbyan infected person. Sneezing or coughing into a tissue and quickly putting it in a bin significantlyreducesthespreadofthevirus.

The virus can also be spread through unwashed hands, for example if a person with the virus touches their nose then someone else, or a surface, like a door handle or keyboard. Wash your hands and work surfaces regularly and thoroughly to kill the virus.

Youcanalsohelppreventthespreadbyavoiding unnecessary contact with other peoplewhenyou’reinfectious.Ifyouhavefluit is better to stay off work until you are well. Having a “Flu Friend”, someone who can bringyouanyover-the-countermedicines,aprescription or any other supplies, can help prevent this unnecessary contact.

Other things you can do to prepare for or cope withflusymptomsinclude:

• Keeping healthy – a healthy lifestyle is agreatdefenceagainstfluandotherillnesses

• Keeping a stock of “over the counter” cold andflumedicationtohelprelieveyoursymptoms

• Being aware of contingency arrangements at your children’s schools

• Following advice and guidance from the NHS and your Local Authority

• Getting vaccinated, especially if you are in a high risk group

• Monitoring local media, such as regional TV, local radio and websites for up to date advice

If you own or manage a business, you should have a contingency plan for high levels of staff absence in case of a pandemic. Having a plan will help your business to return to normal as soon as possible.

Ifyouaregenerallyfitandhealthy,thereisusually no need to visit your GP. However, anyonewhoisconcernedaboutflusymptomsshould contact their GP, who will determine the most appropriate action to take.

Want to know more?

Furtherinformationaboutpandemicflu,including symptoms, causes, prevention, and treatment is available on the NHS website.

http://www.nhs.uk/conditions/pandemic-flu

Further information about protecting your business is available from the Greater Manchester Prepared website.


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Environmental Pollution and Industrial AccidentsCertain industrial activities involving hazardous substances have the potential to cause accidents. Some of these accidents may cause serious injuries to people or damage to the environment both nearby, and further away from the site of the accident.

History

In2004anexplosionattheBuncefieldOilDepot near Hemel Hempstead measured 2.4 on the Richter scale and caused the largest fireinEuropesincetheSecondWorldWar.Sixty people required medical attention, 2,000 people were evacuated from their homes and 370 businesses employing over 16,000 people were affected. The accident also caused major disruption to roads and the fuel supply chain.


Although Manchester is not considered more at risk than any other part of the UK, there are a number of industrial sites, storage depots and fuel and gas pipelines running through the county that have the potential to cause anexplosion,majorfireanddamagetotheenvironment.

In November 2012 an incident at a site in Trafford Park resulted in the release of a cloud of hydrochloric acid gas. The site was evacuated, surrounding roads were closed and residents advised to stay in doors for several hours while the emergency services managed the incident.

COMAH

The Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations (COMAH) (1999) and their amendments (2005) aim to prevent major accidents involving dangerous substances and limit the consequences of incidents to people and the environment. The regulations are overseen by the Health and Safety Executive and the Environment Agency and apply to organisations or sites such as

chemical production facilities, warehouses or distributors that handle or store large quantities of hazardous substances.

For large COMAH sites, known as “top tier” sites, the regulations require Public Information Zones (PIZ) to be established in an area around each site. People living or working within the PIZs must receive information about

• The potential hazards and how they may be affected by a major accident at the COMAH site.

• The safety measures that are in place at the site.

• How they will be warned and kept informed about a major incident

• Any action that should be taken to protect their personal safety.

There’snoneedforyoutofindoutifyourhome or business is in a PIZ – you will be contacted and made aware if necessary.

The consequences

• Death or serious injuries.

• Evacuation of the surrounding area.

• Damage to property.

• Pollution of the local environment and water courses.

• Damage and disruption to local businesses.

• Possible disruption to UK oil and gas supplies.

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Greater Manchester Fire & Rescue Service is the lead agency in Greater Manchester and their responsibilities include:

• Working with COMAH site operators, the Health & Safety Executive and the Environment Agency to develop and maintainmulti-agencyemergencyplans

• Coordinating regular testing & exercising of plans

• Working with site operators to ensure the requirements of PIZs are in place

Local Authorities also have plans in place to provide temporary shelter or accommodation for people who are evacuated from their homes due to any emergency.

Industrial Accidents – what can you do?

• If you live or work in a PIZ, follow the advice and guidance provided

• If you hear warning of an incident, go indoors, close all doors and windows and tune into local TV and radio stations for advice. This advice also applies where thereisasignificantsmokeplumefromafireatanyindustrialsite

Want to know more?

Further information about COMAH is available on the Health & Safety Executive website

http://www.hse.gov.uk

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Loss of Essential ServicesWe all rely on a range of essential services to live our daily lives such as energy supplies, food and water provision, communications, health and financialservices.Disruptiontotheseservicescausedbytechnicalfailure,anemergencyincidentorindustrialactionwillhaveasignificantimpactonour economy and society.

Many parts of the infrastructure networks that providetheseessentialservicesareinter-dependent. For example, electricity is required at water pumping stations, for food production as well as powering cash machines and telephone networks.


Wide-scalelossofelectricity,oil,petrol,dieselor gas supplies would have a direct or indirect impact on many other essential services. There are 13 major hospitals and many health centres that provide NHS services to the people of Greater Manchester which would face disruption from restrictions in utility supplies. Our transport infrastructure such astrafficsignals,railandMetrolinkservicesare also heavily reliant on electricity and fuel supplies in order to function.

Water supplies could be disrupted by burst water mains or contamination of the water supply. Although a severe shortage of food is very unlikely there is the potential for limited supplies of certain food products leading to short term scarcity and price increases.

Individuals and businesses are increasingly dependent on the telecoms network eitherformobileandfixedlinetelephony,financialtransactionsortheinternet.Wide-scaledisruptiontovoiceordatatelecommunications or TV or radio broadcasting would have wide ranging effects on local businesses and the public, especially vulnerable people.

The consequences

• Loss of power for cooking & heating and keeping food cold or frozen

• Poor sanitation and a loss of drinking water

• Disruption to public and private transport caused by a lack of fuel or power

• Limited availability of telecommunications, TV, radio or internet services

• Financial transactions not possible due to cash machines and payment cards not working

• Additional risk for vulnerable people who have greater dependency on essential services

• Disruption to local businesses

• Increased demand on emergency services

• Potential for civil unrest


In the event of national or regional disruption to gas, electricity or fuel supplies the government, emergency responders and essential service providers will all have significantrolestoplayinmanagingtheincident and its consequences. Service providers have well established plans and procedures in place to respond to such incidents.

As members of the GMRF we have procedures to help identify vulnerable people who may need additional assistance in the event of a utilities outage. We also work together and with infrastructure owners and operators, regulators, trade associations and government to ensure that we identify our

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most critical infrastructure, make sure it is resilient to disruption and can recover quickly from an incident.

As individual organisations we also have a responsibility to create and maintain business continuity plans so that we can continue to provide our respective essential services during a range of emergency situations.

Loss of Essential Services – what can you do?

• Find out where the cut off points for gas and water supply are located in your home or business. It may be necessary to shut off the supply for safety reasons

• Keep a supply of emergency items in your homesuchasawind-uptorch,tinnedfood and bottled water

• Do not store petrol or diesel in your home orgarage.Anybenefitisfaroutweighedbytheriskoffireorexplosion

• There may be some warning of supply disruption. If this is the case take action topreparesuchasfilingthebathwithdrinking water


• Be on alert for bogus callers posing as utility company workers. Always ask to see identification

Want to know more?

Further information is available from the Greater Manchester Prepared website.


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Mass GatheringsMass gatherings take many forms, whether they are in city centres, large shopping facilities, sport stadia or arenas. Whilst most pass off without incident there can be safety and security risks associated with large gatherings of people such as public disorder or injuries caused by crowd surges.

Massgatheringscanbepreplanned“one-off”occasions, regular events or even spontaneous gatherings of people. Incidents have occurred in the UK where a stimulus to a large crowd has led to a sudden crowd movement. The stimulus could be opening an area where crowds have built up before an event or where a celebrity appears at a public event. Similarly, crowds can sometimes suddenly surge away from a stimulus, for example when trying to escape a fire.FatalitiesandInjuriesareusuallycausedby people being trampled underfoot, or being crushedagainstfixedobjectssuchasbarriers.

History

Themostwell-knowncrowdmanagementincident in the UK is the 1989 Hillsborough disaster, where 96 football fans died in a crushingincidentatanFAcupsemifinalmatch.


Mass gatherings are an important part of our way of life in Greater Manchester. We successfully hosted the Commonwealth Games in 2002 and part of the 2012 Olympics football competition. We are home to many famous and successful sporting teams and we host many major events that attract people from all over theUKandfurtherafield.

Peaceful public protest is a fundamental element of British democracy. The majority of protests and demonstrations in Greater Manchester pass off without incident. However there have been occasions where violence and disorder has occurred during protests, sometimes between opposing groups, which creates the potential for injuries both to protestors and other members of the public in the locality.

In May 2008 over 50 people were treated for injuries following disorder in Manchester City CentreontheeveningoftheUEFAcupfinal,staged at the City of Manchester stadium.

In August 2011 Greater Manchester suffered several nights of violent public disorder including the looting of retail premises, and widespread vandalism to public and private property. The disorder was not an organised political protest, but was more an expression of violentanti-socialbehaviourandawillingnessto commit robbery and violence as part of a group. Injuries and public anxiety resulted from fightingandincidentsofarson.

The consequences

• Loss of life and serious injuries

• Financial costs to businesses and households caught up in consequences of an incident

• Damage to Greater Manchester’s reputation as a safe and enjoyable place to live and work

• Reputational damage to the event organiser or venue


All major sports grounds and event venues in the UK are subject to stringent safety procedures. In addition, as members of the GMRF we support multi agency Safety Advisory Groups (SAGs) that are regularly held by Local Authorities to assess event plans and provide safety advice to organisers.

Whilst event safety is primarily the responsibility of the event organiser, during large events a

multi-agencycontrolroomisoftensetupandoperated by Greater Manchester Police to maintain public safety and respond rapidly to any issues that occur.

The emergency services have a range of resources available to manage public safety and security issues and regular training is providedtoofficers.Thepolicealsoengagewith protest organisers to facilitate peaceful protest, maintain law and order and balance the rights of protestors with the right of the public to go about their lawful business in safety.

Mass gatherings – what can you do?

• Follow any instructions issued by event organisers before the event – do not take items to an event that could cause a public safety or security issue

• Always allow plenty of time to travel to the venue, gain entry and clear security checks

• Take appropriate precautions for outdoor events – wear sunscreen and carry a bottle of drinking water in hot weather. Wear warm or waterproof clothing in poor weather

• If alcohol is permitted, consume responsibly and in moderation

• Arrange a meeting place should you become separated from family or friends

• Follow the instructions of event stewards or emergency service staff

Want to know more?

Most major event organisers or event venues will provide information on their websites to help you have a safe, secure and enjoyable experience.

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Warning and InformingA well informed public is better able to respond to an emergency and minimise the impact on their community.

The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 requires responders to advise the public of risks before an emergency occurs and maintain arrangements to warn the public and keep them informed in the event of an emergency. Communication is a key part of an emergency response and it is important that messages:

• Are consistent

• Provide appropriate and useful knowledge

• Do not cause unnecessary alarm or panic

For this reason as members of the GMRF we work together to produce consistent messaging for the public and deliver it through a variety of methods. We also consider how

and what information is delivered to different audiences. It is important to consider for example that not everybody will have internet access or be able to receive messages which are only communicated in English.

Getting the message across:

We work closely with media organisations in Greater Manchester to provide timely and accurate information to the public via local TV, radio and websites in an emergency.

As many of us now use Facebook and Twitter, we also use our social media presence to provideup-to-dateinformationtothepublic.This can be particularly useful for unfolding events and rapidly changing situations. If you

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have portable devices such as smartphones or tablet computers, you can access the latest information at any time from most locations.

A range of additional methods are also available to deliver information in an emergency such as:

• Mobilising emergency services crew to go out on foot and knock on doors

• Automatedtelephone,fax,e-mailortextmessages to subscribers

• Loudhaileroramplifiedmessagesfromvehicles or helicopters

• Electronic message boards. (similar to those used on motorways)

• Public announcements in venues such as shopping centres, sports venues and transport hubs

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Get Ready for the Unexpected! Whilst we can’t always prevent emergencies happening, we can plan ahead to minimise the impact.

Go in, stay in, tune-in

If you are close to an emergency incident or believe you may be in danger, the best advice is to

• Go inside a safe building

• Close doors and windows

• Tune in to local TV or radio for further information

• Remain indoors until the emergency has passed

Caught in the middle?

Ifyoufindyourselfinthemiddleofanemergency, your common sense and instincts will usually tell you what to do. However, it is important to:

• Make sure 999 has been called if people are injured or if there is a threat to life

• Try and remain calm, think before acting and try to reassure others

• Not put yourself or others in danger

• Checkforinjuries-remembertohelpyourself before attempting to help others

• Follow the advice of the emergency services

Do you have children at school?

If your children are at school you will naturally want to collect them as soon as possible in the event of a major emergency. But it may not be safe to do so. All schools have plans to copewithlocalemergenciessuchasfireandflood,andteachersandsupportstaffdoallthey can to look after the pupils in their charge and keep them safe.

Keep details of your children’s school phone numbers and website addresses in case you needtocontactthemurgently.Youshouldalso make sure the schools have your correct contact details as they may operate an emergency text alert system.

Further advice may be available on local radio stations about arrangements being made for parents to collect their children from school.

Want to know more?

We have produced a guide that explains how you can keep you and your family safe in an emergency by creating a personal plan. Spending a few minutes thinking about an emergency now could make a big difference to the outcome for you and your family.

Youcanreadordownloadthe‘GetReadyforthe Unexpected” guide at

http://www.agma.gov.uk/cms_media/files/manchester_unexpected_web1.pdf

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Community ResilienceIf you are a member of a community group why not raise awareness of risks and emergencies and improve your community’s resilience?

One simple way would be to introduce the “Get Ready for the Unexpected” guide at your groupmeetings.Yourgroupcouldbeafaithgroup, neighbourhood watch group or even a local group of residents. Why not encourage members to complete their own emergency plans so that they are better prepared to deal with the impact of an emergency?

Community resilience can be improved by simple measures such as having a designated point of contact who can relay warnings and messages from emergency services to otherresidents.Youcanalsouseyourlocalknowledge and expertise to help to support vulnerable people and premises in your local area.

Want to know more? Need some inspiration?

Members of the GMRF run numerous activities and events to promote personal and community resilience in an emergency. Here are just a few examples:

• Bolton Council hold an annual “Get Ready for Winter” event in the town centre. This

event promotes healthy eating, safety and keeping warm and is supported by the Emergency Services, NHS Bolton, Environment Agency, Electricity North West, Highways Agency, TfGM and the Territorial Army

• Rochdale Council work with communities to help them prepare and deliver local communityfloodriskactionplans.The plans identify local issues and opportunities to address them more effectively as part of its Flood Resilience CommunityPathfinderprojectinconjunction with the National Flood Forum and other partners

Yourlocalauthoritywebsitemaycontainotherexamples to inspire you.

The Communities Prepared hub has recently been launched to help Resilience Forums inspire and improve emergency preparedness in communities across the country.

For further information visit

http://www.epcollege.com/community-hub/home

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Is your Business prepared?If you own or are responsible for a business or organisation, have you considered the impacts of emergencies?

These can include:

• Asuddenandsignificantreductioninstaff

• Denial of access to your premises or a key geographical area

• Unexpected loss of mains electricity or gas supplies

• Loss of mains water supply or sewerage services

• Significantdisruptiontopublicorprivatetransport

• Loss of telecommunications or disruption to your computer systems

• Lossoffinancialtransactionservices

• Disruption which affects your key suppliers or partners

Developing a Business Continuity Plan

Effective Business Continuity arrangements arethefirstlineofdefencefromdisruptiveevents and unforeseen costs for any organisation. A carefully thought out Business Continuity plan will improve your organisations capability to

• Continue trading or operating during an emergency or disruptive event

• Recover from disruption and return to “business as usual” as soon as possible

This Community Risk Register provides Greater Manchester businesses with information on the likelihood and potential impact of a range of different risks to help organisations consider the impact on their own operations.

By their very nature, emergency incidents tend to disorientate and overwhelm those involved. Bypre-identifyingkeyroles,checklists,contact lists and procedures your response to a crisis will be more assured and deliver better results than the most intelligent improvisation.

Understanding your organisation

Thefirststageofbusinesscontinuityplanningis known as a ‘Business Impact Analysis’. This is a tool to understand your most critical activities and the resources you need to carry out these activities. Ask questions such as:

• What parts of the business must continue to function?

• What priority would you allocate to restoring business functions if they fail?

Assessing the risks

Consider the list of disruptive events above and any others that may affect your business. What contingencies you could put in place to reduce the likelihood, mitigate the impact and protect your most critical business functions?

Training and exercise

A Business Continuity plan should not be considered valid until it has been tested. The aim of a test is to see if the plan actually works in practice. Train and test your staff in activating the plan and the roles and procedures it contains.

Want to know more?

YourLocalAuthoritywebsitemayhaveuseful business continuity advice, links, and resources.

Acknowledgements

This Community Risk Register has been produced by the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum who would like to thank colleagues from the Lincolnshire Resilience Forum and M.Sc International Disaster Management students from the University of Manchester school of HumanitarianismandConflictResponseInstitute for their support and contributions.

Contact

Tel: (0161) 234 4444Email: [email protected]

Web:www.agma.gov.uk/greater-manchester-prepared

greater manchester community risk register

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