greater halifax economic background
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Halifax, Nova Scotia, is renewing its Economic Strategy for 2011-2016 in collaboration with all three levels of government, business and community. This presentation provides economic backgroundTRANSCRIPT
Economic Background
June, 2010
Renewal of Halifax Regional Municipality’s Economic Strategy
Contents Page
Economic PerformanceHalifax BasicsRecent Economic Performance
210
Outcomes of 2005-10 Economic Strategy 19
Hub City 25
People Issues 29
Reputation 35
Challenging Myths 40
3
Economic Performance - Halifax Basics
4
Halifax Quick Facts• Population – Over 370,000• Labour Force Size – 230,000• 400,000 people within 30 miles• Unemployment rate – 6.5%• Real GDP 12,909(million) 1.4% growth
– Conference board forecasted that Real GDP in Halifax in 2009 grew by 1.4%, ahead of cities such as: Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver.
• Halifax’s GDP represents 47% of Provincial GDP
Halifax Snapshot
10-year Economic Overview
Indicator 1996 2006 TrendPopulation 359,111 372,858
Employment (‘000) 164.1 204.8
Unemployment Rate 8.2% 5.0%
Inflation Rate 1.6% 2.8%
Housing Starts 2,022 2,511
Retail Sales ($ millions) 3,429 5,675
University enrolment 24,433 32,926
Sources: Statistics Canada, CMHC, MPHEC
5
Financial Services• Butterfield Fund Services – 400 jobs• Olympia Capital – 150 jobs• CITCO Fund Services – 350 jobs• Marsh – 150 jobs• Admiral Insurance – 150 jobs• Meridian Fund Services (Canada) Ltd – 50
jobs• ADP Canada – 122 jobs• Manulife Bank – 150 jobs
Information Technology• xwave – 250 jobs• CGI Group Inc. – 23 jobs• SportsDirect Inc. – 110 jobs
Aerospace and Defense• IMP Aerospace Ltd. – 350 jobs• General Dynamics – 110 jobs• L-3 Electronics System – 210 jobs
Oil & Gas/Energy• Deep Panuke Project – 35 jobs
Nearshore Outsourcing• Minacs – 300 jobs• Hogg Robinson Group – 250 jobs
Other• Halifax Regional Police – 36 jobs• Scorpio Mining Corporation – 40 jobs
New Jobs in Greater Halifax
6
Halifax – Globally Well-Positioned
• 60 million people within 2 hours• Closer to Boston than to Montreal• Closer to New York than to Toronto
• 60 million people within 2 hours• Closer to Boston than to Montreal• Closer to New York than to Toronto
7
5%
5%
6%
7%
8%
30%
16%
12%
7%
4%
2%
Age 0 to 4
Age 5 to 9
Age 10 to 14
Age 15 to 19
Age 20 to 24
Age 25 to 44
Age 45 to 54
Age 55 to 64
Age 65 to 74
Age 75 to 84
Age 85 and over
Population by Age – Halifax 2006
Source: Statistics Canada
8
Education Attainment
Source: 2006 Census of Canada, Nova Scotia Perspective, Release #7, Nova Scotia Department of Finance, Statistics Division
67% of the population of Halifax have trade,
college or university qualifications – the 4th
highest in Canada.
High school
23%
trades 13%
College, 25%
Uni-versity
39%
9
10
Agriculture0%
Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas1%
Utilities1%
Construction6% Manufacturing
5%
Trade16%
Transportation and warehousing
5%
Finance, insurance, real estate and leas-
ing7%
Professional, scientific and technical services7% Business, building and other support services
5%
Educational services
10%
Health care and social assistance13%
Information, culture and recreation
5%
Accommodation and food services
6%
Other services4%
Public administration9%
Halifax: Employment by Industry 2009
Source: Statistics Canada: Labourforce Historical Review 2009
11
Recent Economic Performance
12
Halifax’s labour force growth has outperformed other areas of
Nova Scotia by a wide margin
13
Wagons East
14
Employment Comparison
Unlike the rest of Canada, Nova Scotia, and the Atlantic Provinces, Halifax has continued to create jobs throughout
the recent recession
CIBC’s index of 9 indicators places Halifax as the top performing economy in Canada
15
CFIB Confidence Survey: February 2010
At the beginning of 2010 – Nova
Scotia has the highest level of small business confidence in
Canada
16
17
Halifax’s Average Earnings Trend
Average earnings in
Halifax have been increasing
steadily over the
last 4 years
18
Halifax’s NSCC Campus Enrollment Trend
NSCC enrollment in Halifax campuses are increasing sharply and consistently.
19
Halifax’s University Enrollment Trend
University enrollment has continued to decrease but saw a rebound in 2009.
20
2005-10 Economic Strategy Outcomes
21
Quantitative Results• Our population has increased by more than 15,000. • More than 18,000 net new jobs have been created. • The average income has jumped by more than $4,000 • The jump in outmigration so evident in 2006-07 has
reversed.• At the beginning of 2010, Nova Scotia and Halifax had the
highest level of small business confidence in Canada and that index was at its highest level in four years.
• By the end of 2009 CIBC’s Metro Monitor told us that by a measure of 9 different indicators, Halifax had the strongest economy in Canada
22
Qualitative Results• HRM by design has been approved and several
new projects have been approved or are under construction in the Capital District
• HRM has set infrastructure spending priorities• Young professionals are engaged in their
community, thanks to FUSION Halifax.
23
Sector Results• Both Port and Airport gateways have made major investments
and have begun to rebound from the world recession.• Substantial strenthing of the finance and insurance sector…HRM’s
highest wage sector• Stabilization of Defense and other Federal Government
Employment• HRM is on the brink of a major investment in a new convention
centre…the private component of which will add to the stock of class A downtown office space.
• Several additional class A office projects have been proposed for the downtown core.
• A gateway strategy has been developed but implementation is slow.
Business Climate• Measurable improvements in processing times
for development agreements and project approvals have been achieved.
• However Nova Scotia’s tax and regulatory burden seems to be among the most burdensome in Canada.
24
Chamber Scorecard• The Chamber accepted the substantial role of
developing a yearly community progress report on the strategy based on established outcome measures.
• Outcomes were mixed. Notably population, university enrolment, and public and private investment targets did not meet their stretch goals. However, significant progress was achieved in regulatory reform and most of the top 11 priority actions.
25
26
Hub City
• The Conference Board Of Canada’s research shows that 9 Canadian cities drive an even faster rate of growth in smaller communities within the same province or region.
• The Conference Board demonstrates growth convergence between the cities and surrounding areas…in other words gaps in GDP growth between the hub city and surrounding areas are declining rapidly.
• The gap between GDP per capita in Halifax, surrounding centres of Nova Scotia and other Atlantic provinces shows the strongest convergence of any hub city in Canada
• In other words, Halifax not only pulls along the economies of surrounding communities, it helps them grow even faster than the hub.
Hub City Defined
27
• Over 13,000 people from outside HRM commute to the community daily for employment. These workers bring about $600 million in income back to their communities each year from their jobs in Halifax.
• Aside from declines in primary and manufacturing sectors employment in most other sectors was up outside of Halifax.
Hub City Facts
28
• Gateway• Digital Industries• Finance & Insurance • Ocean Industry• Life Science• Education • Hospitality –Tourism• Green-Tec• Real Estate – Development• Aerospace & Defence• Advanced Manufacturing
Halifax is Atlantic Canada’s Economic Hub
Hub city assets drive the economic growth of Halifax
and all of Nova Scotia
29
30
People Issues
31
Labour market shifts demand different and new skills.
Labour Market Outlook: Nova Scotia
2009* 2014** ChangePopulation 15+ (’000) 772.5 770.9 -1.6
Labour Force (’000) 498.7 500.1 +1.4
Employed (’000) 453.0 462.5 +9.5
Unemployed (’000) 45.6 37.6 -8.0
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.2 7.5 -1.7
Participation Rate (%) 64.6 64.9 +0.3
*YTD Estimate **Projection 33
3.8%
0.6%
6.5%
0.1%
4.7%
-1.5%
Halifax Nova Scotia Moncton New Brunswick St. John's Newfoundland
Population Growth 2001-2006Halifax has not kept pace with growth in neighbouring cities
34
Net Youth Migration
1805
2040
2160
3280
4065
5105
5565
6545
7235
16705
Victoria
Halifax
Kelowna
Québec
Barrie
Montréal
Oshawa
Ottawa - Gatineau
Vancouver
Edmonton
Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006
Aged 20 – 34 2001 - 2006
While Halifax has had net improvement in youth
migration our performance is no longer the best among
medium sized cities35
36
Reputation
A Green Community• HRM Harbour Solutions
– $333 million– First coastal city in Atlantic Canada to move to full
treatment• Solid waste diversion at over 60%
– Highest of any city in Canada• Pesticide by-law• Green Energy Plan
37
• Vibrant arts and culture environment - symphony, theatre, art galleries, museums, historic sites, major junior hockey
• Hub city, pub & club city• Variety of recreation - parks, beaches, hiking, boating, golf • Physical beauty• Over 10% of Halifax workers walk to work• Harbour Solutions, Recycling, Pesticide By-Law
Quality of Life
38
Quality of Life Factors, by Indicated Frequency of Importance
Quality of Life Factors
Percentage of Respondents Citing as Important
2009
Low crime rate 79
Health facilities 68
Housing availability 62
Housing costs 62
Ratings of public schools 61
Climate 55
Recreational opportunities 53
Colleges and universities in area 51
Cultural opportunities 4639
40
Research
Challenging the Myths: HRM’s Attitudes to Growth & Development
Myth 1: HRM’s population thinks growth is
bad.
43
Attitudes To Economic Growth (mean ratings; 10 = “strongly agree”)(7 is considered strong approval of a statement)
Economic Growth Is Important For A Vibrant Community (n=1369)
HRM Needs To Continually Grow Its Economic Base (n=1359)
A Growing Economy Provides For Enhanced Services & Entertainment Options (n=1366)
Economic Growth Provides New Employment Opportunities That Benefit Me & My Family
(n=1350)
My quality of life is enhanced through economic growth in HRM (n=1358)
Economic Growth Causes Traffic Congestion & Other Inconveniences (n=1360)
Future Economic Growth Should Be Primarily Directed To Suburbs & New Developments
(n=1346)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
8.3
8.1
7.9
7.3
7.1
6.4
5
Change Over Last 10 - 15 Years Has Been: (Total Sample: 1371)
Overall Economic Growth In HRM
Commercial Development In HRM
Residential Development in HRM
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
72% 71%
61%
19% 18%23%
4% 6%12%
Good For HRMNeither Good Nor BadBad For HRM
44
Myth 2: People don’t support the idea of a
densely developed urban core.
Development In Downtown Halifax (Total Sample: 1371)
Both Commercial And Residential Development
Should Be Happening Much More Quickly In
Downtown Halifax
Downtown Halifax Can Easily Accommodate More Tall Buildings
HRM Spends Too Much Money On Downtown
Halifax
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
12%25% 22%
30%
26%44%6%
4%
13%
32%29%
14%21% 17%7% Strongly Agree
Mostly Agree
Neither
Mostly Disagree
Strongly Disagree
46
47
Downtown Halifax Should Be The Location For Future Development: By Type Of Development (among those stating strong preference for town or city)
Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Setting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
37%
17%
29%
13%9%
5%
High Density Com-mercialHigh Density ResidentialLow Density Residential
Axis Title
Note: Scale is 0% – 50%
Downtown Halifax Should Be The Location For Future Development: By Type Of Development
Total Southern Peninsula
Northern Peninsula
Dartmouth Bedford, Clay-ton Park, etc.
Fall River, Sackville, Tan-
tallon, etc.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
High Density Commercial
High Density Residential
Low Density Residential
Note: Scale is 0% – 50%48
Myth 3: People don’t recognize and support
downtown Halifax as ‘the showroom’ of the regional municipality.
50
Development In Downtown Halifax (Total Sample: 1371)
Both Commercial And Resi-dential Development
Should Be Happening Much More Quickly In Downtown
Halifax
Downtown Halifax Can Eas-ily Accommodate More Tall
Buildings
HRM Spends Too Much Money On Downtown Hali-
fax
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
12%25% 22%
30%26%
44%6%4%
13%32%
29%
14%21% 17%7%
Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree
51
Who Will Benefit From (Further) Growth And Development In Downtown Halifax
I Will Personally Benefit My Neighborhood Will Benefit0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
12% 13%
27% 28%
5% 5%
37% 36%
19% 18%Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree
(Total Sample: 1371)
52
I Will Personally Benefit From Further Growth And Development In Downtown Halifax
(among those stating strong preference for town or city)
Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Setting0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
9%21%
20%
32%5%
4%40%
31%
27%12%
Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree
n= 516 376
53
My Neighborhood Will Benefit From Further Growth & Development In Downtown Halifax
(among those stating strong preference for town or city)
Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Setting0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
7%22%
20%
29%5%
5%39%
31%
28%13%
Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree
Myth 4: People are opposed to tall buildings.
54
55
A Building’s Visual Appeal Is Very Important(Total Sample: 1371)
The Visual Appeal Of New Develop-ments Should Be Strongly Considered
In The Approval Process
The Design Of A Building Is More Im-portant Than The Height Of A Building
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1% 8%3%17%
1%
5%38%
37%
56%
34%Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree
56
Support For Developments In The Downtown Core (Total Sample: 1371)
4 Stories Or Less 4 - 10 Stories 10 Stories Or Taller0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
13% 17%30%
14%13%
13%3% 2%
2%49% 47%
33%
22% 21% 22% Completely SupportMostly SupportNeitherMostly Do Not SupportDo Not Support At All
57
Developments That Are 10 Stories Or Taller In The Downtown Core
(among those stating strong preference for town or city)
Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Set-ting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
26%37%
14%
14%2%
3%31%
30%
26%17% Completely Support
Mostly SupportNeitherMostly Do Not SupportDo Not Support At All
58
Developments That Are 4 to 10 Stories Tall In The Spring Garden Road Area
(among those stating strong preference for town or city)
Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Set -ting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16%28%
17%
19%1%
3%44%
38%
22%12%
Completely SupportMostly SupportNeitherMostly Do Not SupportDo Not Support At All