great powers and the caspian region’s energy resources · 2013. 5. 5. · oil and gas resources...
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Great powers and the Caspian Region’s energy resources
Matthias AdolfCaspian Energy Policy Research GroupEnvironmental Policy Research CentreFree University Berlin
Reform Group meeting: Energy & Climate Policy – Towards a Low Carbon FutureSchloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg, September, 18th 2008
Content• The Caspian Region• Interests of (Great) Powers
• PR China• EU• Russia• U.S.
• Energy Policy in the PR China• Conclusions
Strategic Ellipse
The Caspian Region
… and how much oil and gas is there in the Caspian Region?
Caspian Region - Energy situationOil and Gas Resources in the Caspian Region
Oil (World share)Tsnd. Mtoe
Natural Gas (World share)Trillion m3
Azerbaijan 1.0 (0.6%) 1.3 (0.7%)
Kazakhstan 5.3 (3.2%) 1.9 (1.1%)
Turkmenistan 0.1 (< 0.1%) 2.7 (1.5%)
Uzbekistan 0.1 (< 0.1%) 1.7 (1.0%)
Total 6.5 (~ 4.0 %) 7.6 (4.3%)
Source: BP: Statistical Review full Report Workbook 2008
Caspian Region - Energy situation
Source: BP: Statistical Review full Report Workbook 2008
Oil (2007) Production
(Tsnd. bpd)
Consumption
(Tsnd. bpd)
Armenia - 42
Azerbaijan 868 93
Georgia - 13
Kazakhstan 1,490 219
Kirgizstan - 10
Turkmenistan 198 107
Uzbekistan 114 119
Total 2,670 564
Export capacity: 2.1 Mio. Bpd = ~ production in Iraq
Caspian Region - Energy situationNatural Gas (2007) Production
(Billion m3)
Consumption
(Billion m3)
Armenia - 1.3
Azerbaijan 10.3 8.3
Georgia - 1
Kazakhstan 27.3 19.8
Kirgizstan 0 1
Turkmenistan 67.4 21.9
Uzbekistan 58.5 45.6
Total 163.5 98.9
Export capacity: 65 billion m3 = ~ production in NetherlandsSource: BP: Statistical Review full Report Workbook 2008
… who is interested in the energy resources of the region?
PR China• Economic and political influence
• for example Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
• Diversification of oil/natural gas imports:• 80% of oil imports have to cross the Strait of
Malacca which is controlled by the U.S.• Investments in companies
• for example Petro-Kazakhstan, 4.18 billion US-Dollar in 2005
11/72
PR China
… whether the PR China can realise it’s ambitions depends on the
interests of:
European Union• Extension of political and economic
influence:• INOGATE
• (Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe)• TRACECA
• (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia)
European Union• Central-Asia strategy 2007 (democracy, education,
trade, security) • Diversification of oil and natural gas
• Baku-Tbilissi-Ceyhan (Oil)• Baku-Tbilissi-Erzurum (Natural Gas)• Nabucco (Natural Gas)
• For example: Journey of Frank-Walter Steinmeier 2006/2007
15/72
European Union
… but probably the success is on the side of:
Russia• Political and economic influence to restore „great
power“ status• Resources are needed to compensate for shortages
in delivering natural gas to the European Union.• 15 % of Russian energy exports are from
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan• China good as customer, but bad as protagonist in
the region
• For example: Journey of Putin 2007
… so there is not much space in the region for the interests of:
USA
… therefore there are very different interests in the realization of:
Pipeline dreams in the Caspian Region
• If all Turkmenian pipeline dreams are fulfilled, this would mean:
• Russia: +45 billion m3
• PR China: +30 billion m3
• Pakistan/India: +30 billion m3
• EU: +15 billion m3
• Altogether: +110 billion m3 per annum
• Export today: 45 billion m3 (Russia)6,5 billion m3 (Iran)
• Altogether: 51,5 billion m3 per annum
Where shall this increase in production come from?
… because of this geopolitical and geoeconomical competiton in the Caspian Region, the Region will be fraught with crises and conflicts in the future.
… but now: Special focus on the PR China:
Energy market and consequences for the Caspian Region
Energy situation in PR China• Since 1979:
• Average growth rate of GDP: 9.5%• Since 1993:
• Net importer of oil• Between 2000 and 2006:
• Average annual growth rate of energy demand: 9.8% (967 Mtoe – 1,698 Mtoe)
• 2006:• Share of world primary energy consumption: 15.6%
Energy situation in the PR China
Source: IEA 2006: 516
Energy situation in PR China
Source: IEA 2007: 516
… to satisfy the growing demand China went out into the big, wi(l)de
world …
Zou shu qu!• 2002 adoption of the „going out!“ strategy
• Secure effective ownership of energy resources and transportation infrastructure to:• secure energy supply• reduce dependence on foreign companies• diversify energy transportation routes
Zou shu qu!• Strategy of procedure:
• Active, energy-centered way of commercial diplomacy within the key energy exporting regions
• Widening campaign by China’s three major NOCs to secure equity investments in oil and gas fields abroad
• Diversified supply of long-term crude and LNG contracts from a broad range of exporters to meet future needs
… this includes a secured access to the Caspian Region
-But what can be done to reduce the
conflict potential?
Conclusions – PR China• Cooperation in the region:
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)• Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN)• Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)• Energy cooperation between India/PR China
• Organizations like the SCO have the chance to develop common solutions for energy policy problems.
Conclusions – PR China• Reduction of Chinas energy import:
• Substitution of fossil by renewable energyresources
• Increase of energy efficiency• High investments in research and development
• Rising of affordable technology transfer from western countries
Conclusions – EU/U.S.• Recommendations for the EU/U.S.:
• Dialogue with SCO• Integration of Iran in western economical
structure• Cooperation with Indian, Chinese and other
regional energy companies• Dialogue on creation of world currency basket
with Dollar, Euro, Yen (later on Ruble and Yuan)
Thank you for your attention!