Confronting gClimate Change in the Great

k iLakes Region

3rd Annual Great Lakes ConferenceHealing our Waters Great Lakes CoalitionHealing our Waters Great Lakes Coalition

Chicago, ILSeptember 6, 2007

Don ScaviaUniversity of Michigan

School of Natural Resources and EnvironmentMichigan Sea Grant

Today’s OutlineToday s Outline

Cli t i l d h iClimate is already changing

… and interacting with other stressesg

We are seeing impacts our region

… expect more

Are we preparing for them?Are we preparing for them?

(setting aside emission controls for today)

The Big PictureThe Big PictureThe Big PictureThe Big Picture

Measured global surface temperature since 1880

G b h 95%Green bars show 95% confidence intervals

J. Hansen et al. 2006)

Models and Observation agree: the planet is warmingthe planet is warming

Models match observed ∆T on all continents co t e ts

IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, 2007

Human Influences on Climate:3 Key Greenhouse Gases3 ey G ee ouse Gases

IPCC 2001, Summary for Policy Makers

Increasing Confidence

IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could b l l d t t l i bilit lt ti l thi be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability and other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming.

IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.

IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities.human activities.

IPCC 2007: Most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

The Globe is Warming …g

What about the Great Lakes Region?Lakes Region?

Great Lakes RegionGreat Lakes Region

Temps are rising, especially in winter

Winters are shorterWinters are shorter

Spring comes earlierp g

Shorter duration of ice cover

Extreme rainfall events more frequent

Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones US: 1990 2006US: 1990 - 2006

Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones Great Lakes: 1990 2006Great Lakes: 1990 - 2006

1990 -40 to-30 ºF

2006

30 to 20 ºF

-40 to -30 ºF -30 to -20 ºF

-30 to -20 ºF

-20 to -10 ºF

-20 to -10 ºF -5 to -10 ºF

Average Minimum Temperatures

Great Lakes Growing Seasons

Lakes and Rivers are

1 Nov

1 DFreezing later, and Thawing

1 Dec

1 JanThawing Earlier

Freeze

1 Feb

1 Mar

Breakup1 Apr

1 May

Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

1840 1880 1920 1960 20001 Jun

Grand Traverse Bay

1 Nov

1 DWinter Freeze and Breakup

Dates

1 Dec

1 JanDatesFreeze

1 Feb

1 Mar

Breakup1 Apr

1 May

Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

1840 1880 1920 1960 20001 Jun

The Big Lakes too!

Lake Lake er

OntarioHuron

Co

ve

1972 20071972 2007Ice C

Lake Erie

Lake Michigan

1972 20071972 2007

en

t I

Perc

e

1972 2007 1972 2007

P

More frequent extreme RAIN

Wh Where are we heading? heading?

Global Scale

T changes for 2x CO2

Computer simulations of expected warmingexpected warming

Business as Usual is heading us to a

T changes for 4x CO2

is heading us to a 4X CO2 world

Predicted Global Temperatures

7.2°F

3.2°F

IPCC 2007

Wh Where are we heading? heading?

Great Lakes Region

Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by 2100

Temperature

Great Lakes Region by 2100

TemperatureGenerally Warmer (esp. in winter)Extreme heat more commonGrowing season several weeks longerIce cover decline will continue

PrecipitationWi t i i iWinter, spring increasingSummer, fall decreasing

i il d hDrier soils, more droughtsMore extreme events

Climate Warming will Impact the Future Weather we “Feel”

Forecast Great Lakes Growing Seasons

Projected Great Lakes Precipitation ChangesChanges

2X heavy rain events2X heavy rain events

Seasonal shifts: Seasonal shifts:

More rain winter/spring

Less rain summer/fall

Projected Impacts

Great Lakes Region Great Lakes Region

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Lakes Streams & FishLakes Lakes, Streams, & Fish

• Cold-water fish will decline, cool- & warm-water species

hmove north

• Ecosystem disruptions• Ecosystem disruptionscompounded by invasionsof non-native species

• Summer lake stratification will increase more dead-will increase, more deadzones and fish kills

“Dead Zones” & Fish Kills ’ b k& Fish Kills will increase in shallower

i

It’s back!

regions.

??

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Forests & WildlifeLakes Forests & Wildlife

Boreal forests likely to disappear

Short-term forest productivity could increase

Higher ozone, droughts, fires, insects could damage long-term forest health

Birds breed more and earlier

Raccoons, skunks, andmay benefit

Moose likely to suffer

Northern movement of B lti

Today

Baltimore Oriole habitat

2X CO2

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Recreation & TourismLakes Recreation & Tourism

Significant impacts on lti billi $ i d tmulti-billion $ industry

Millions of anglers affected by fish impacts

Bird-watchers and hunters affected

Summer season expanded, but more extreme heatbut more extreme heat,heavy downpours

Winter recreationWinter recreationhard hit

Winter is a part of our “Sense of Place”.

We are losing Winter as we once knew it.

… John Magnuson

Climate Change Impacts Will ONot Occur in a Vacuum

Population is growingUrbanization and sprawlSocial challenges

Pollution of air & waterLandscape fragmentation

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Wetlands & Shorebirds

Earlier spring runoff, flooding, lower water levels tough on wetland species

Lower flood-absorbing capacity

Fewer breeding sites for amphibians Fewer breeding sites for amphibians, shorebirds and waterfowl

Sh i ki tl d h bit t d i f Shrinking wetland habitat, drying of prairie potholes

Changing water levels AND regulation

Strong regulationStrong regulation

Natural fluctuation

Exacerbation of Existing ProblemsWater Resources

Reduced groundwater recharge, small streams likely to dry up

Lake levels expected todecline

Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakesextraction from the Great Lakes

Why are lake levels so low?

Precipitation is normal!Precipitation is normal!

Warmer Winters/Less Ice:More Evaporationp

over

Ice C

oce

nt

IP

erc

1972 2007

Future Lake Michigan Levels

+1.0

m)

+1.3 ft

Level

(m

0.0

Wate

r L

Model R

-1.0

Mean

W Range

2090 = Lofgren et al. 2002

- 4.6 ft

An

nu

al

-2.01900 1950 2000

2090 = Lofgren et al.

A

Exacerbation of Existing ProblemsP t & I f t tProperty & Infrastructure

More frequent extreme storms and floods More frequent extreme storms and floods - greater property damage- burden on emergency managementbu de o e e ge cy a age e t- increased clean-up and rebuilding- financial toll on businesses and homeowners

Lower lake levels - shipping-related adjustments- more dredging needed

Exacerbation of Existing Problems H H lthHuman Health

Cold-related health problemspdecline, while heat-relatedmortality will increase > 90oF

Extreme heat more likely>40 days >90°F >40 days >90>25 days >97°F

> 97oF

Waterborne and other infectious diseases may become more diseases may become more frequent or widespread

Summer Heat-Related Mortality for Current, 2020, and 2050 ClimateCurrent, 2020, and 2050 Climate

Current20202050

150200

250

250

0 Montreal0

50100

150

50100

150200

Note: Does not include winter mortality. Assumes no acclimatization to changed climate. Does not account for population growth.

Source: WHO, 1996

GFDL Climate Change Scenario

Toronto

Worst Impacts Are Not InevitableNo-regrets solutions available now

A three-pronged approach:

Reduce our emissions

Minimize other pressures on the environment

Plan and prepare to manage impacts

Minimizing OTHER Pressures O E ion Our Environment

• Air Quality Improvements

• Water Resource Protection

• Habitat Protection• Habitat Protection

• Urban and Land Use Planning

Prescription for Great Lakes Ecosystem Protection and Restoration

Avoiding the Tipping Point of Irreversible Changes

Interacting stresses matter

We’re approaching a tipping pointOver fishing

Nutrient Loading

Toxic Ch i l Cli t

We know enough to act now

O e s g Chemicals Climate changeClimate

Change!We know enough to act nowLand Use

g

Restore R ili !Hydrologic

AlterationsInvasive Species

Resiliency!

Take Home MMessages:

• Climate change is changing the character of the Great Lakes region

• Climate change will continue to magnify g g yexisting health and environmental problems

• Common sense solutions/adaptations are available now -- IF WE PREPARE FOR THEM

Managing Climate Impacts

• Emergency PreparednessBut, are “we” • Agricultural and Forestry

Adaptationspreparing?

Adaptations

• Public Health ImprovementsGovernments?• Public Health Improvements

• Infrastructure Adjustments

Governments?

Industries?• Infrastructure Adjustments

• EducationCitizens?• Education

Confronting gClimate Change in the Great

k iLakes Region

Are we prepared?Are we prepared?

Are we preparing?Are we preparing?