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Grassroots Entrepreneurism An working document of insights & ideas and a thesis for transforming the American economy December, 2010 Donna Harris, Dec. 2010

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Grassroots  Entrepreneurism  An  working  document  of  insights  &  ideas  and  a  thesis  for  transforming  the  American  economy    

December,  2010  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Convergence…  

Entrepreneurial  Economy  

Global  Economy  

Network  Economy  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Entrepreneurial  Economy  

•  BELIEF  #1:  Entrepreneurship  is  the  leading  force  for  sustainable  economic  development  

•  Economic  growth  /  transformaMon  will  depend  on  innovaMve  entrepreneurs,  not  incumbent  corporaMons  –  “the  net  source  of  new  jobs  will  be  predominately  created  from  an  entrepreneurial  

climate,  not  from  revitalizing  old  industries”  (George  Solomon,  co-­‐director  of  the  Center  for  Entrepreneurial  Excellence  at  George  Washington  University)  

–  The  Kauffman  FoundaMon  has  found  that  from  1980  to  2005,  nearly  all  net  job  creaMon  in  the  U.S.  occurred  in  firms  that  were  less  than  five  years  old.  •  both  on  average  and  for  all  but  seven  years  between  1977  and  2005,  exisMng  firms  are  net  job  

destroyers,  losing  1  million  jobs  net  combined  per  year.  By  contrast,  in  their  first  year,  new  firms  add  an  average  of  3  million  jobs  

–  Of  all  the  US  businesses  that  exist  today,  half  of  them  did  not  exist  in  the  year  2000  

•  “We're  seeing  the  beginnings  of  the  entrepreneurial  economy,  a  system  built  on  nimble,  low-­‐overhead,  odenMmes  small  companies  with  fluid  workforces,  rather  than  the  massive  conglomerates  that  have  upheld  the  economy  for  decades.”  

Entrepreneurial  Economy  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Business  CreaMon  •  BELIEF  #2:  The  widely-­‐held  belief  that  capital  markets  (“VC,  

Private  equity,  IPO”)  are  the  only  way  to  grow  scalable  new  enterprises  is  flawed.  

•  First,  roughly  600,000  new  businesses  launch  in  the  United  States  each  year.    Only  about  1,000  new  businesses  receive  their  first  venture  capital  funding  each  year.    That  means  only  .167%  of  new  businesses  receive  venture  funding.      

•  VC  funding  is  also  concentrated  in  select  regions  of  the  US,  leaving  out  enMre  swaths  of  the  naMon/world  –  PWC  Data  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Most  firms  don’t  go  public  

•  Second,  over  70%  of  U.S.  firms  with  more  than  500  employees  choose  to  remain  private  rather  than  lisMng  on  a  stock  market  –  U.S.  Census  Bureau  

•  The  number  of  IPO’s  in  the  US  is  declining  –  See  link  re:  declining  IPO  market:  hmp://www.pascalsview.com/pascalsview/2010/08/connecMng-­‐the-­‐dots-­‐how-­‐new-­‐job-­‐creaMon-­‐ipo%E2%80%99s-­‐and-­‐venture-­‐capital-­‐in-­‐america-­‐are-­‐inMmately-­‐linked.html    

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Private  firms  as  employers  

•  Third,  privately  held  firms  account  for  more  than  two-­‐thirds  of  U.S.  private-­‐sector  employment  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Small  Businesses  contribute  to  employment,  trade  and  innovaMon  

•  Fourth,  there  are  29.6  million  small  businesses  in  the  US,  and  they  employ  over  half  the  private  sector  workforce.    They  represent  97.3%  of  all  exporters  of  goods  and  they  generate  the  majority  of  the  innovaMons  that  come  from  US  firms.  They  exist  in  every  city  in  the  country.  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

High  Impact  Enterprises  •  BELIEF  #3:  High  growth  entrepreneurs’  enterprises  create  a  disproporMonate  share  of  all  new  jobs  created  by  new  firms  

•  While  70%  or  more  of  an  industrialized  economy’s  jobs  are  generated  by  SMEs,  an  overwhelming  number  of  jobs  come  from  a  small  subset  of  SMEs,  “Growth  Entrepreneurs”  who  do  most  of  the  work  of  new  job  and  wealth  creaMon.  

•  “entrepreneurs  that  have  the  most  innovaMve  ideas,  the  power  to  inspire  through  their  stories,  and  the  most  scalable  businesses  in  their  respecMve  countries”  (Endeavor)  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

MulMplier  Effect  •  BELIEF  #4  –  Entrepreneurial  acMvity  has  a  mulMplier  effect  •  GEM  2010  survey  shows  that,  in  the  economies  analyzed,  some  110  

million  people  between  18  and  64  years  old  were  acMvely  engaged  in  starMng  a  business.  Another  140  million  were  running  new  businesses  they  started  less  than  3½  years  earlier.  Taken  together,  some  250  million  were  involved  in  what  GEM  defines  as  early  stage  entrepreneurial  acMvity.    

•  Out  of  these  individuals,  an  esMmated  63  million  people  expected  to  hire  at  least  five  employees  over  the  next  five  years,  and  27  million  of  these  individuals  anMcipated  hiring  twenty  or  more  employees  in  five  years.  

•  NOTE:  what  is  the  net  number  of  new  jobs  that  need  to  be  created?  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Capital  is  the  means,  not  the  end  •  BELIEF  #5  –  Capital  is  merely  a  proxy  for  what  entrepreneurs  truly  

need  (access  to  markets,  revenue  growth,  cash  flow).      –  Capital  is  simply  a  tool.  –  Much  energy  is  focused  on  the  effort  of  raising  capital  (oden  at  the  

cost  of  other  aspects  of  the  business,  such  as  sales)  and  many  accolades  come  from  having  raised  capital.    Yet,  when  capital  is  received,  no  incremental  value  is  created.  Entrepreneurs  must  sMll  execute  to  create  value.    •  NOTE:  can  we  find  data  on  how  Mme  is  spent  (i.e.,  the  “cost”  of  raising  

capital?)  –  Entrepreneurs  raise  capital  in  order  to  fund  their  growth  plans.    How  

much  is  raised  is  based  on  the  cost  of  the  plan  and  the  Mme  it  will  take  to  execute.  

–  Utopia  reduces  the  cost  of  growth,  accelerates  the  Mmeframe,  and  reduces  the  risk  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Economies  are  dynamic,  not  staMc  •  BELIEF  #6  -­‐  Lack  of  compeMMveness  comes  from  a  slow-­‐down  in  the  introducMon  of  

new  products  (i.e.,  new  companies)  that  can  create  new  value,  create  new  markets  or  respond  to  shids  in  exisMng  markets  

•  As  the  pace  of  change  in  our  world  accelerates,  this  dynamic  becomes  more  pronounced.    New  businesses  are  introduced  with  innovaMve  offerings  that  replace  ones  now  obsolete.    –  Schumpeter  –  entrepreneurs  disrupt  the  market  equilibrium  by  introducing  new  product-­‐

market  combinaMons  and  teaching  customers  to  want  new  things,  driving  out  obsolete  firms  and  advancing  economic  growth  

–  Drucker  –  the  role  of  the  entrepreneur  is  to  search  for,  respond  to  and  exploit  change  •  Yet  the  US  economy  (governments,  states,  businesses)  is  not  structured  to  

accommodate  this.  This  is  a  dramaMc  departure  from  historical  US  thinking,  with  long-­‐standing,  massive,  entrenched  corporate  enMMes  (“too  big  to  fail”,  GM,  bailouts,  etc.)  (bigger,  bigger,  bigger)  (US  collecMve  shock  that  GM  is  no  longer  the  market  leader)  (crossing  the  chasm)  

•  There  needs  to  be  a  balance  between  rates  of  established  businesses  and  rates  of  early  stage  acMvity  -­‐  “Ideally  an  economy  should  have  some  turnover  of  firms,  where  startups  introduce  ideas  into  their  environments  replacing,  in  part,  firms  whose  businesses  have  lost  their  relevance.”  GEM  Global  Report  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

It’s  not  about  quanMty  •  Belief  #7  –  we  have  to  culMvate  growth  businesses,  not  just  startups  

–  Over  the  past  decade,  we  have  been  creaMng  more  non-­‐employer  businesses  and  fewer  employer  businesses  per  capita.  (Employer  businesses  are  companies  that  the  Census  Bureau  reports  have  at  least  one  employee;  non-­‐employer  businesses  have  no  employees.)  The  employer  business  share  of  the  total  businesses  has  slipped  four  percentage  points  since  1997,  from  26.4%  of  the  total  in  1997  to  22.4%  in  2007.  Non-­‐employer  businesses  aren't  the  source  of  job  or  wealth  creaMon  that  employer  businesses  are,  which  means  the  U.S.  economy  doesn't  benefit  as  much  from  them.  By  definiMon,  non-­‐employer  businesses  don't  create  any  jobs,  and  their  sales  and  profits  are  quite  low.  

•  Belief  #8  –  we  have  to  culMvate  success  among  companies  rather  than  simply  encouraging  more  companies  to  launch.    –  Entrepreneurship  does  not  impact  an  economy  simply  through  higher  

numbers  of  entrepreneurs.  It  is  important  to  consider  quality  measures,  like  growth,  innovaMon  and  internaMonalizaMon.  (GEM,  2010  report)  

•  Find  the  highest  potenMal  enterprises  (based  on  potenMal  impact)  and  give  them  their  “best  chance  to  reach  their  potenMal”  

•  Success  =  revenue  growth,  profitability  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Building  profitability  reduces  churn  •  Belief  #9  -­‐  Lack  of  profitability,  NOT  access  to  capital,  is  the  

most  frequently  cited  reason  for  disconMnuing  (across  all  economies,  regions  and  countries)  –  FACT.    See  GEM  Report  

•  While  some  level  of  disconMnuance  is  necessary  to  maintain  a  dynamic  economy,  when  churn  is  too  high,  entrepreneurial  acMviMes  do  not  have  a  net  posiMve  contribuMon  on  the  economy.  

•  The  US  has  a  high  TEA  rate  (lots  of  new  businesses)  but  also  has  the  highest  disconMnuance  rate  of  all  innovaMon  based  economies.  

•  This  churn  can  be  reduced  if  companies  can  find  a  way  to  increase  the  likelihood  of  reaching  profitability  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Economic  Diversity  is  CriMcal  

•  BELIEF  #10  –  Economic  transformaMon  must  entail  diversificaMon  

•  Likened  to  a  successful  investment  porvolio,  entrepreneurship  in  a  society  should  contain  a  wide  variety  of  business  phases  and  types,  parMcipaMng  in  numerous  industries,  led  by  different  types  of  entrepreneurs,  including  women  and  underrepresented  age  groups.  

•  Michigan  as  the  example  (or  PA)  in  affiliaMng  with  a  limited  industry  base  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Economic  TransformaMon  means  creaMng  real  value  

•  Wall  Street  Economy  versus  Main  Street  Economy  – Wall  Street  Economy  =  A  system  of  pure  money  that  is  highly  biased  towards  the  wealthiest  and  most  predatory  members  of  society.    •  Bigger  is  bemer  •  IPO  driven  /  maximizing  shareholder  return  •  Phantom  wealth    

– Main  Street  Economy  =  real  economy  of  Main  Street  where  people  are  trying  to  figure  out  things  to  do  with  their  resources  to  provide  for  their  livelihoods  and  to  create  community  wealth.    •  Real  wealth  in  real  dollars  •  “rooted  local  economies”  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

The  Missing  Middle  

•  Investors  commonly  look  at  risk  reducMon,  rather  than  reward  capture,  as  the  key  valuaMon  driver  for  the  venture,  parMcularly  in  the  development  stage.  

•  Wide  gap  between  microfinance  and  private  equity.    The  middle.  

•   As  Peter  Drucker  has  said,  "What  we  need  is  an  entrepreneurial  society  in  which  innovaMon  and  entrepreneurship  are  normal,  steady,  and  conMnuous.“  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Interlink  of  economic  transformaMon  and  social  transformaMon  

•  BELIEF  #11  –  Economic  transformaMon  can  and  should  produce  societal  transformaMon  

•  At  the  root  of  most  social  challenges  lie  economic  issues  •  “Most  all  of  the  dysfuncMons  that  we’re  experiencing  in  society—

economic  instability,  social  breakdown,  violence,  and  war,  environmental  destrucMon—they  are  all  inevitable  consequences  of  an  economic  system  that  is  designed  to  concentrate  power  and  focus  social  values  on  money.  The  only  way  we’re  going  to  be  able  to  correct  the  failure  is  through  economic  transformaMon.”  –  David  Korten,  author  of  “When  CorporaMons  Rule  the  World”  and  “Agenda  for  a  

New  Economy”  –  hmp://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/a-­‐resilient-­‐community/get-­‐free-­‐from-­‐wall-­‐

street    •  UN  Millennium  Goals  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

It’s  not  an  either-­‐or,  it’s  a  both-­‐and  •  TradiMonal  entrepreneurship  =  innovaMon  +  income  (devoid  of  any  

concept  of  impact)  –  Come  back  to  this:  investors  interested  in  building  important  businesses,  

influenMal  businesses  (versus  impacvul);  importance  does  not  equal  impacvul  –  Importance  –  InfluenMal  

•  Social  entrepreneurship  =  innovaMon  +  impact  (but  struggles  with  sustainability/income)  

•  The  future  is  TransformaMonal  Entrepreneurship,  which  =  innovaMon  +  income  +  impact  

•  Impact  =  Jobs  created,  revenue  driven  throughout  supply  chain/economy,  plus  secondary  impacts    –  HP  example  

•  “Job  creaMon  is  the  key  to  ge|ng  tracMon  in  most  other  kinds  of  improvement  in  society,  and  entrepreneurship  is  the  key  to  job  creaMon.”  (Endeavor  HBS  Case  study)  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Requires  New  Thinking  •  Belief  #12  –  There  needs  to  be  new  ways  of  thinking,  new  ways  to  

approach  markets,  new  ways  of  building  enterprises  •  We  will  need  to  transform  our  way  of  thinking  if  we  are  going  to  

transform  our  economies  •  US  has  lost  its  confidence  as  an  entrepreneurial  naMon,  and  

entrepreneurialism  has  been  hijacked  by  the  capital  markets  (see  Drucker)  

•  “Leadership  for  insMtuMonal  transformaMon  rarely  comes  from  within  the  insMtuMons  of  Empire”.      

•  TransformaMonal  leadership  comes  from  outside  the  establishment  to  challenge  the  status  quo  and  create  alternaMve  insMtuMons  that  ulMmately  displace  those  that  no  longer  serve.  

•  The  key  is  the  individual,  who  is  increasingly  empowered  in  an  era  of  technology  and  social  media.    

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Global  Economy  

•  Belief  #1  -­‐  Today’s  economy  is  global,  not  local.    •  GlobalizaMon  =  EliminaMon  of  barriers  (tech,  comm,  travel)  =  enterprises  playing  globally.      

•  The  world’s  markets  and  businesses  are  increasingly  connected  and  interdependent.  

•  The  integraMon  of  naMonal  economies  into  the  internaMonal  economy  through  trade,  foreign  direct  investment,  poliMcal  idea  exchanges,  capital  flows,  migraMon,  the  spread  of  technology,  and  military  presence.  

•  Driven  by  a  combinaMon  of  economic,  technological,  sociocultural,  poliMcal,  and  biological  factors.  

Global  Economy  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

High  PotenMal  Firms  all  over  the  Planet  •  Belief  #2  -­‐  There  are  world  class  entrepreneurs  all  over  the  planet  •  Most  people’s  assumpMons  about  entrepreneurship  in  the  developing  

world—that  entrepreneurs  either  don’t  exist  there  or  are  microentrepreneurs—are  wrong.  High  potenMal  ventures  are  surfacing  where  no  one  is  looking  for  them—in  Beirut  instead  of  Boston,  in  Cape  Town  instead  of  Silicon  Valley—among  people  who  have  historically  been  outside  the  economic  power  structure.    

•  Countries  that  want  to  play  in  the  global  economy  need  companies  like  these,  which  are  building  and  redefining  industries  that  saMsfy  domesMc  demand  and  generate  export  income—not  to  menMon  create  employment  for  the  rapidly  growing  younger  populaMon.  –  Quotes  from  AllWorld  HBS  video  

•  Consider:  –  The  Saudi  Fast  Growth  100  companies  collecMvely  created  35,000  jobs  since  

they  were  established,  of  which  nearly  15,000  were  created  in  just  the  last  five  years  

 

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Sweet  16  –  Countries  to  Invest  In  

Source:  hmp://cebviews.com/2010/03/25/the-­‐16-­‐countries-­‐you-­‐should-­‐invest-­‐in/        

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Global  from  IncepMon  •  Belief  #3  –  Today’s  entrepreneurs  are  already  thinking  global  from  

day  1  despite  public  percepMons  of  globalizaMon  •  Historically,  firms  first  sought  to  grow  at  home,  then  long-­‐term  

grow  overseas  (tradiMonal  MBA  training  in  InternaMonal  Business)  •  61%  of  people  surveyed  view  China’s  economy  as  more  of  a  threat  

to  US  jobs  than  an  opportunity  for  new  markets  and  investments.      •  Regardless  of  tradiMonal  training  or  public  percepMon,  today,  

companies  are  thinking  global  from  incepMon,  frequently  starMng  overseas  rather  than  at  home,  melding  home/foreign  employee  bases,  using  foreign  suppliers,  markeMng  globally,  etc.  

•  The  absolutely  will  influence  the  economic  base  of  the  future  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Global  Business  Model,  not  just  Customers  

•  Belief  #4  -­‐  The  global  economy  is  mulM-­‐dimensional,  not  linear  •  Historic  conversaMons  have  been  about  ge|ng  countries  to  open  borders  

to  trade  (i.e.,  to  US  products),  but  this  oversimplifies  and  wrongly  focuses  the  issue  on  one  dimension  

•  i.e.,  not  just  about  selling  US  products  in  other  countries  •  InternaMonalizaMon  is  not  just  about  having  foreign  customers.  It’s  about  

thinking  globally  about  all  aspects  of  a  business  –  Brand,  MarkeMng,  Customers,  Suppliers,  OperaMons,  Employees,  Owners,  

Investors…  –  “Any  job  can  be  sent  overseas  if  it  can  be  digiMzed  and  you  don't  need  face-­‐to-­‐

face  interacMon  like  a  haircut  –  “transnaMonal  strategy”  in  which  each  organizaMonal  acMvity  is  performed  in  a  

locaMon  where  it  can  be  best  accomplished  •  Physical  country  borders  are  becoming  less  and  less  relevant  (especially  to  

entrepreneurs  and  high  growth  companies)  –  Re-­‐read  “When  CorporaMons  Rule  the  World”  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Example  •  In  2008,  Chinese  companies  had  invested  less  than  $5b  in  the  US,  while  US  firms  

made  $50B  capital  investments  in  China  and  employed  tens  of  thousands  of  Chinese  workers.    Since  2009,  Chinese  investment  in  the  US  has  jumped  150%  to  almost  $12b  (Rhodium  Group).    Chinese  firms  employ  over  10,000  Americans  and  growing.      –  Suntech,  world’s  largest  producer  of  solar  panels,  HQ  in  Wuxi,  China.    Establish  Phoenix  

assembly  line  to  get  big  savings  on  shipping  costs  and  a  foothold  in  a  growing  market.  Received  a  $2.1  million  manufacturing  tax  credit  through  the  economic  sMmulus  package  on  an  investment  of  about  $10  million  and  also  became  eligible  to  supply  solar  panels  to  installers  that  win  government  contracts  with  "Buy  American"  clauses.  More  than  1,000  people  turned  up  at  a  recent  Suntech  job  fair.  Suntech  is  using  more  advanced  manufacturing  equipment  in  AZ  than  in  Wuxi,  allowing  30  Arizonans  to  produce  the  same  number  of  solar  modules  as  100  Chinese.  (U.S.  producMon  costs  are  sMll  about  10  percent  higher.)  "If  it  works  very  well,  we  can  integrate  the  same  manufacturing  technology  in  China,"  Guo  says.  "This  would  help  Suntech  China  make  [a]  manpower  reducMon."  Jobs  for  Americans  and  pink  slips  for  the  Chinese—just  one  more  turnabout  in  the  U.S.-­‐China  relaMonship.    

–  Wanxiang  InternaMonal  ($8b  global  company)  purchased  or  invested  in  over  20  US  firms,  saved  over  a  dozen  companies  from  bankruptcy  and  employs  over  5,000  Americans  (Wanxiang  America  has  $1.3B  in  revenue)  Ex:  Vizio  from  $0  to  $2b  in  less  than  5  years  by  leveraging  suppliers  all  over  the  world  rather  than  verMcally  integraMng  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Network  Economy  

•  Belief  #1  –  Technology  enables  enMrely  new  methods  of  enterprise  creaMon    

•  Inventory,  customer  management,  accounMng,  shipping,  corporate  communicaMons  and  even  human  resources  can  be  outsourced  to  the  digital  ether  as  a  cluster  of  web-­‐based  services  and  applicaMons  

•  Web  tools  (Apps,  Email,  Skype)  facilitate  remote  work  •  Eliminates  the  need  for  physical  plant  •  Reduces  the  need  for  large  office  spaces  and  a  large  pool  of  employees  •  Enables  remote  collaboraMon    •  DramaMcally  lowers  cost  of  building  /  scaling  a  business  –  cost  of  entry  

nearing  zero  –  Ex:  WAFW  brand  development  -­‐  $2,500  and  done  on  4  conMnents  

•  Reduces  the  capital  required  for  scaling  •  TradiMonal  business  building  methods  are  now  obsolete  

Network  Economy  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

New  View  of  Value  CreaMon  •  BELIEF  #2  –  Today’s  economy  is  a  networked  economy,  which  upends  

tradiMonal  thinking  about  value  creaMon  •  In  a  network  economy,  value  is  created  and  shared  by  all  members  of  a  

network  rather  than  by  individual  companies,  and  economies  of  scale  stems  from  the  size  of  the  network  -­‐  not  the  enterprise.      

•  CollaboraMon,  not  control,  is  the  primary  value  creaMon  mechanism  •  The  great  benefits  reaped  by  the  new  economy  in  the  coming  decades  will  

be  due  in  large  part  to  exploring  and  exploiMng  the  power  of  decentralized  and  autonomous  networks.  

•  A  network  is  a  possibility  factory.    Not  only  can  it  be  tapped  to  provide  value  to  a  company,  it  is  also  a  great  source  of  ideas  and  opportuniMes.    –  Ex:  Crowdsourcing  (NYC  Give  a  Minute)  

•  Wholesale  reshaping  of  how  enMre  industries  operate  •  An  economy/system  built  on  nimble,  low-­‐overhead,  odenMmes  small  

companies  with  fluid  workforces,  rather  than  the  massive  conglomerates  that  have  upheld  the  economy  for  decades.  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Virtual  OrganizaMons  •  BELIEF  #3  –  Today’s  most  compeMMve  enterprises  employ  a  federaMon  approach,  

melding  a  network  of  alliances  or  partners  into  a  virtual  organizaMon  •  CollecMon  of  enterprises  Med  together  through  contractual  or  other  means  (joint  

ventures,  strategic  alliances,  minority  investments,  consorMa,  coaliMons,  outsourcing,  franchises)  

•  The  virtual  organizaMon's  goal  is  to  extract  the  maximum  value  from  its  partners  while  making  the  minimum  investment  in  permanent  staff,  fixed  assets,  and  working  capital.  

•  Strategic  core  funcMons  are  retained  with  the  enterprise  to  create  compeMMve  advantage  

•  Enables  specializaMon  (selecMon  of  the  best  partner  for  each  need),  higher  access  to  talent,  and  flexibility  amid  shiding  global  markets  (rapid  adaptability  /  easily  ramp  up  and  down)  

•  Examples:  –  the  development  of  the  B-­‐1  bomber  required  teams  from  as  many  as  2,000  separate  

corporaMons  to  work  together.  They  formed  a  virtual  organizaMon  to  accomplish  the  design  and  manufacture  this  product,  an  effort  that  required  several  years  to  complete.  

•  Source:  hmp://www.cis.gsu.edu/~drobey/Cis8160/Global.pdf    

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Virtual  Workforce  •  Belief  #4  -­‐  the  physical  locaMon  of  work  can  be  decided  by  

more  relevant  criteria  than  the  need  to  co-­‐locate  workers  contribuMng  to  a  common  task.  

•  Virtual  organizaMons  oden  allow  individual  employees  to  perform  their  work  in  a  variety  of  locaMons:  home,  car,  office,  or  on  airplanes.    

•  Employees  performing  services  need  not  be  physically  located  close  to  their  customers  if  customer  contact  can  be  mediated  by  other  means  (advanced  communicaMon  technologies).    

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Managing  Talent  &  Resources,  not  Employees  

•  Belief  #5–  There  are  enMrely  new  models  for  accessing  human  resources  •  Shid  from  “employees”  to  “talent”  •  Right  skill  for  today,  different  skill  for  tomorrow    

–  High  value  at  each  stage  –  Staging  the  skills  

•  Trends:  –  Rise  of  “Expert  networks”  “ConsorMums”  which  facilitate  the  flow  of  informaMon/experMse  between  those  

who  have  it  and  those  who  need  it.    Allows  companies  to  piggy  back  off  the  expert’s  reputaMon  /  credibility  –  Many  more  people  are  pursuing  self-­‐employment  or  starMng  specialized  small  businesses  –  Young  people  (future  workers)  seek  independence/control  rather  than  employment  

•  DATA  –  The  number  of  small  businesses  created  in  2008  was  sMll  at  pre-­‐recession  levels,  according  to  the  latest  data  

from  the  Small  Business  AdministraMon,  contrary  to  most  economic  indicators  –  The  Kauffman  Index  of  Entrepreneurial  AcMvity,  which  measures  new  startups,  shows  a  slight  upMck  during  

the  same  Mme  period,  and  that  is  expected  to  conMnue  through  2009  –  Self-­‐employment  rates  have  been  growing  at  an  average  of  4.5  percent  annually  most  of  this  decade,  adding  

roughly  1  million  people  per  year,  and  they  are  expected  to  keep  pace  or  spike  when  the  2008  and  2009  numbers  are  released.  

–  Entrepreneurship  programs  at  accredited  universiMes  have  jumped  from  just  a  handful  10  years  ago  to  more  than  200  entrepreneurship  centers  today,  and  more  than  500  higher-­‐ed  insMtuMons  offer  cerMficates,  minors,  or  majors  in  entrepreneurial  studies.  According  to  one  recent  poll,  51  percent  of  teens  hope  to  one  day  start  their  own  business,  and  see  it  as  a  way  to  take  greater  control  of  their  lives.  

 

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Corporate  Local  

Hierarchical  

 Entrepreneurial  Global  

Networked  Closed   Collabora9ve  

Transforma9onal  Transac9onal  

Shid  from  a  Top-­‐down  to  a    Bomom  Up  Economy  

Where  the  Jobs  Are  

•  Belief  #1  –  The  current  unemployment  problem  is  not  simply  a  lingering  effect  of  the  recent  financial  crisis  and  recession,  but  is  rather  a  reflecMon  of  advances  in  technology  and  changing  pamerns  of  global  trade,  manufacturing,  and  capital.  

•  These  changes  have  been  building  over  the  past  several  decades,  and  are  now  obvious  and  laid  bare  by  the  recession  and  financial  crisis  

•  Manufacturing  jobs  have  been  declining  since  1999  –  Due  primarily  to  gains  in  producMvity-­‐  hmp://data.bls.gov/Mmeseries/PRS30006092  \  

•  jobs  and  output  are  declining  as  a  share  of  GDP,  but  manufacturing  output  and  producMvity  are  increasing  •  The  greater  efficiency  of  the  manufacturing  sector  afforded  either  a  slower  price  increase  or  an  outright  decline  in  the  prices  of  this  

sector’s  goods.  As  one  example,  inflaMon  (as  measured  by  the  Consumer  Price  Index)  averaged  3.7%  between  1980  and  2009,  while  at  the  same  Mme  the  rise  in  prices  for  new  vehicles  averaged  1.7%.  So  while  the  number  (and  quality)  of  manufactured  goods  had  been  rising  over  Mme,  their  relaMve  value  compared  with  the  output  of  other  sectors  did  not  keep  pace.  This  allowed  manufactured  goods  to  be  less  costly  to  consumers  and  led  to  the  manufacturing  sector’s  declining  share  of  GDP.  

–  Due  also  to  globalizaMon  •  The  U.S.  accounted  for  25.92%  of  world  manufacturing  output  in  1970  and  20.19%  in  2009.  The  relaMve  decline  in  the  2000s  was  a  

result  of  a  24.1%  increase  in  world  manufacturing  output  between  2000  and  2009  compared  with  just  a  10.1%  increase  in  the  United  States  over  that  same  period.      

•   As  you  might  expect,  Chinese  manufacturing  grew  157.4%  from  2000-­‐2009,  and  China's  growth  accounted  for  55.9%  of  the  world's  total  growth  over  that  Mme  period.  Surprisingly  (at  least  to  me),  manufacturing  value  added  in  Western  Europe  fell  3.4%  at  the  same  Mme.    

•  “Decline  of  manufacturing”  is  a  global  phenomenon,  not  just  limited  to  the  US  –  The  standard  of  living  around  the  world  today,  along  with  global  wealth  and  prosperity,  are  all  much,  much  

higher  today  with  manufacturing  represenMng  16-­‐17%  of  total  world  output  compared  to  1970,  when  it  was  almost  twice  as  high  at  26.7%.    

–  As  a  share  of  GDP,  manufacturing  has  declined  in  most  countries  since  the  1970s.    A  few  examples:  Australia's  manufacturing/GDP  raMo  went  from  21.3%  in  1970  to    9%  in  2009,  Brazil's  raMo  went  from  24.6%  to  13.3%,  Canada's  from  21.7%  to  11.3%,  Germany's  from  35%  to  19%,  and  Japan's  from  35%  to  20%    

THE  CRISIS  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Where  the  Jobs  Are  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Where  the  Jobs  Are  

•  Belief  #2  –  To  forecast  the  future  of  manufacturing,  look  to  agriculture  •  Manufacturing  is  just  like  agriculture  in  the  19th  and  20th  centuries  •  Due  to  technology  and  producMvity  gains,  manufacturing  will  shrink  as  a  percentage  of  

the  labor  force.    –  There  will  never  be  as  many  factory  jobs  as  there  were  in  the  mid-­‐20th  century,  just  as  there  

will  never  be  as  many  agriculture  jobs  as  in  the  mid-­‐18th  century.    •  Going  all  the  way  back  to  the  early  1800s,  more  than  80  percent  of  both  U.S.  

employment  and  output  were  directly  Med  to  a  relaMvely  inefficient  (by  today’s  standards),  labor-­‐intensive  agriculture  sector  of  the  economy.  Food  products  were  very  expensive  and  consumed  a  large  part  of  a  typical  household’s  income.  Over  Mme,  technology  revoluMonized  farming,  resulMng  in  the  same  trends  we  observe  today  in  manufacturing:  huge  increases  in  farm  worker  producMvity,  reduced  farm  employment,  significantly  lower  and  more  affordable  prices  leading  to  a  reduced  share  of  food  in  both  household  income  and  naMonal  income  (GDP).  

•  This  brings  us  back  to  the  same  quesMon  we've  been  grappling  with,  as  a  society,  since  the  1980s.    

•  Namely,  what  do  people  do  to  make  a  living?    

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

technology  plus  globalizaMon  •  If  you  look  at  the  American  economy  right  now,  we  are  back  to  pre-­‐crisis  

level  of  GDP,  which  is  about  $13.5  trillion.  We're  producing  the  same  number  of  goods  and  services  as  we  did  in  2007  with  seven  million  fewer  workers.    

•  So  at  some  level,  that's  a  producMvity  increase,  which  is  admirable.  But  what  it  tells  you  is  we  are  achieving  producMvity  where  you  can  get  GDP  growth  without  hiring  more  people  -­‐  in  fact,  by  firing  people.    

•  Look  at  every  industry:  Technology  is  replacing  people.  •  Back  in  1979,  General  Motors  had  618,000  jobs  in  the  United  States.  2011,  

down  to  77,000  •  Facebook  employs  2,000  people.  It's  a  $50  billion  company.  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

crisis  of  growth  and  unemployment    

•  We  would  need  to  create  187,000  jobs  a  month,  growing  at  a  rate  of  3.3%,  to  get  to  a  healthy  5%  unemployment  rate  by  2020.  

•  Nobel  laureate  Michael  Spence,  author  of  The  Next  Convergence,  has  looked  at  which  American  companies  created  jobs  at  home  from  1990  to  2008,  a  period  of  extreme  globalizaMon.  The  results  are  startling.  The  companies  that  did  business  in  global  markets,  including  manufacturers,  banks,  exporters,  energy  firms  and  financial  services,  contributed  almost  nothing  to  overall  American  job  growth.  The  firms  that  did  contribute  were  those  operaMng  mostly  in  the  U.S.  market,  immune  to  global  compeMMon  —  health  care  companies,  government  agencies,  retailers  and  hotels.  Sadly,  jobs  in  these  sectors  are  lower  paid  and  lower  skilled  than  those  that  were  outsourced.    

•  Worker  Mobility:  In  the  1980s,  about  1  out  of  5  workers  moved  every  year;  now  only  1  of  10  does.    

•  The  youth  unemployment  rate  is  now  24%,  compared  with  the  overall  rate  of  9.1%.  If  and  when  these  young  people  return  to  work,  they'll  earn  20%  less  over  the  next  15  to  20  years  than  peers  who  were  employed.  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Conclusions  •  Significant  economic  impact  can  come  through  acceleraMng  the  

growth  and  success  of  the  highest  potenMal  enterprises,  regardless  of  where  they  reside  or  the  industry  they  serve.    

•  Such  scaling  should  not  be  limited  to  VC-­‐backed  firms.  •  Growing  these  enterprises  will  immediately  impact  enMre  

economies  through  revenue  and  job  creaMon  and  secondarily  impact  our  world’s  most  pressing  social  challenges.  

•  We  can  accelerate  the  trajectory  of  company  formaMon  and  scale  (and  enable  startups  to  achieve  their  full  global  potenMal)  by  pu|ng  the  network  economy  to  use.  Individuals,  rather  than  insMtuMons  can  drive  economic  transformaMon.  

•  This  is  criMcal  work.  Without  it,  our  global  economy  will  lack  the  jobs  necessary  to  sustain  our  populaMon.  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010  

Strategyà    Grassroots  Entrepreneurism  

•  InsMgaMng  a  movement  of  bomom-­‐up,  entrepreneur-­‐led,  open,  collaboraMve,  entrepreneurship  support,  to  create  a  single  network  supporMng  startups  in  every  city  –  Tap  serial  successful  entrepreneurs  in  ciMes  across  the  country  –  Tackle  the  problems  that  keep  startups  from  succeeding  locally  –  

mentorship,  educaMon,  support,  capital.  –  Band  together  into  a  naMonal  network  to  share  ideas;  help  every  

community  and  every  startup  reach  their  full  potenMal.      –  Focus  on  revenue,  profitability  for  long-­‐term  value  creaMon    

•  As  a  result,  together,  we  can  transform  and  build  strong  economies  by  helping  scalable  /  high  impact  enterprises  accelerate  the  trajectory  of  their  growth  

Donna  Harris,  Dec.  2010