grameenphone ltd. may, 2019 · 5 commercial operation of hbtl (hutchison bangladesh telecom ltd.)...
TRANSCRIPT
Grameenphone Ltd.
May, 2019
This is the footer text.
1
Disclaimer
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom
such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not
a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents.
Information in the following presentation relating to the price at which relevant investments
have been bought or sold in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon
as a guide to the future performance of such investments.
This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an
invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire
securities in Grameenphone Ltd. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation
in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions
into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves
about, and observe, such restrictions.
3
Mobile market
leader in a
fast-growing
economy
BANGLADESH AT A GLANCE
Sources: WorldBank, CIA Factbook
• GNI per capita of USD 1,330
• Largely a cash based economy
• Main sectors: Service, manufacturing and agriculture
• Stable inflation and currency performance
• Population of 168m, growing by >1% per year
• Young population, 47% below 25 years
• Expanding middle class
Age distribution Real GDP growth (Avg. of last 10 years)
28%
19%
40%
7% 6%
0-14 yrs 15-24 yrs 25-54 yrs 55-64 yrs >64 yrs
5.0%5.2%
5.9% 6.0%6.2%
Nigeria Kenya Sri Lanka Vietnam Bangladesh
Economics Demographics
4
5
Commercial operation of
HBTL (Hutchison Bangladesh
Telecom Ltd.) with AMPS
technology
1996
1997
3 major GSM players
currently named GP,
Banglalink and Robi came
into operation
1998
Mobile-Mobile
service launch 1999
Prepaid service
launch
2002
• 1mn subscriber
• Formation of Bangladesh
Telecommunication
Regulatory commission
2004
Launch of state owned
operator Teletalk as the
5th player
2005
• Introduction of SIM tax
• Launch of Warid Telecom as the
6th player
• Banglalink re-launch after
Orascom’s acquisition
26 YEARS OF MOBILE TELECOM SERVICES
• New interconnection
regime (ICX, IGW & IIG)
• Launch of separate
Broadband Wireless
Access (Wimax)
operation
2008
2009
• 90%+ population coverage
• 50 Mn subscribers
Entry of Airtel
Bangladesh by
acquiring Warid
Telecom
2010
2011
Renewal of 2G
spectrum for 15
years
2013
• 100 mn
subscribers
• 3G cellular
mobile phone
services
2016
Merger of Robi
and Airtel
SIM re-registration through
NID & Biometric
Verification System
1993
Launch of brand
name Citycell by
PBTL (restructured
HBTL)
2018 Launch of 4G
services
2019
Grameenphone
declared SMP
AN ATTRACTIVE AND GROWING MOBILE MARKET
DOMINATED BY PREPAID
• 159 million subscribers, of which 98% prepaid
• Multi-SIM market with around 58% real mobile penetration*
• 50% internet penetration*, rapidly increasing
• ARPU of around USD 2
• Scale benefit drives healthy margin for top 3 players
• Continuously developing regulatory landscape
6
Industry Subscribers (Mn)
*Based on estimation
**Subscriber adjustment due to bio-metric verification during 2016
120
134 126
145 157
2014 2015 2016** 2017 2018
GRAMEENPHONE IS THE UNDISPUTED MARKET LEADER,
WITH SOLID FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
7
Revenues (BDT Bn) and EBITDA margin (%)*** Total revenue market shares*
• 6.5% revenue CAGR and 10.3% EBITDA CAGR in 5 years
• Growing EBITDA margin with efficiency improvements
• 17.7% operating cash flow CAGR with margin improvement
• 74.1 million subscribers and #1 brand in Bangladesh
• Largest network: 15,939 total sites out of which 5935 4G
• Widest distribution: More than 373k points of sales
**Airtel merged wih Robi from Q4'2016
*** EBITDA before other items
53% 53% 51% 53% 53% 54%
22% 22% 23% 22% 19% 18%
25% 25% 26% 24% 28% 28%
2013% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Grameenphone Banglalink Robi
GRAMEENPHONE IS THE UNDISPUTED MARKET LEADER WITH
SOLID FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
97 103 105
115
128 132.8
51% 53% 53%
55%
59% 60.70%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue EBITDA Margin
1Q2019: STRONG BUSINESS PERFORMANCE DRIVEN BY
VOICE AND MARKET EXECUTION
8
*EBITDA before other items
**As per IAS 18
***Normalized for one-off items
Revenue (BDT Bn) and Growth (YoY)
31.2
32.6
34.3 34.7
34.9
2.0% 0.5%
3.4%
7.7%
11.6%
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
13.0%
18.0%
23.0%
28.0%
29.5
30.5
31.5
32.5
33.5
34.5
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19
EBITDA* (BDT Bn) and Margin**
18.0
19.6
21.2 21.6
21.1
57.4% 60.2% 61.8% 62.2% 60.6%
30.0%
80.0%
130.0%
180.0%
230.0%
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19
NPAT (BDT Bn) and Margin
6.4
10.8
8.9 9.1 8.9
20.5%
33.2% 25.9% 26.1% 25.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19
• 11.6% YoY growth in total revenue
• 15.1% YoY growth in voice revenue driven
by 9.8% growth in subscriber base
• 2.8 Bn normalized EBITDA uplift
• One-off reversal of excess provision
• Normalized NPAT margin of 25.7%*
• One-off negative effect of BDT 518 Mn
in Q1’19 for VRS and business
transformation costs
Reached 6.8 Mn active 4G users
Q1 2019
5900+ LTE Sites
58% 4G Devices with 4G SIMs
38.2 Mn
data customers
27% of daily
traffic on 4G
12
Significant
Growth
Opportunities
VOICE SEGMENT REMAINS IMPORTANT AND STILL OFFERS
ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
13
• Real mobile penetration currently at approx. 58%,
expected to increase
• Affordability of marginal subscriber improving
• Leverage expanded network and distribution footprint
• Improving price perception and simplicity in offers
• Strengthen position in B2B, postpaid and youth
segment
AMPU and APPM (BDT)
168
194 203
234 216
0.68
0.59 0.56 0.58
0.67
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2016 2017 2018 3M 2019
AMPU APPM (BDT)
INCREASING DATA USAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
REVENUE GROWTH DRIVER GOING FORWARD
14
Data users and revenue contribution Average data usage (MB per month)
• 19% total data revenue growth in Q1’19 YoY
• Support from 3G/4G network coverage expansion
• Proliferation of affordable smartphones will be key
• Usage driven by video streaming, social media and OTT
• 72% of monthly active data users use facebook • Flagship ‘Digital Bangladesh’ vision of Government to act
as an enabler
284
488
651
1002
1397
2015 2016 2017 2018 3M 2019
28%
42%
48% 51% 52%
8%
12%
17% 19%
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2015 2016 2017 2018 3M 2019
INVESTING IN NETWORKS TO CAPTURE DATA GROWTH
• 15,939** no of 3G sites is covering 95.2%** of population
• 5900+ 4G sites rolled out till Q1 2019
• Network modernization ongoing to consolidate superior
position
• Strong end-to-end fiber backhaul across the country
• Expansion of indoor coverage to address rapid
urbanization and vertical city expansion
• Constrained fixed broadband market
16
*Source: Company website (Q4 2018), data not yet published for Q1 2019
** End of Q4 2018
15939
5939
9519
7294
3G 4G 3G Population Coverage
GP Robi BL
3G/4G sites & Pop. coverage per operator*
95%
72%
17
Physical
Distribution has
been a Major
Strength
…WHILE PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTION REMAINS THE CORE,
DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION IS SHAPING UP
• Convenience is driving recharge through digital
channel
• Most digital interaction starts from physical location
• Bridging the digital and physical world with GP
Express stores i.e. integration of e-commerce platform
• Digitization of tools and processes to ensure
empowerment and efficiency of channel
18
Recharge through digital channels (% of sales)
0.1% 0.5%
8.2%
10.4% 11.7%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.50%
8.20%
10.40% 11.70%
17%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
COMMITMENT TO FURTHER EFFICIENCY
21
Technology Market Personnel Support
• New operating model for network management activities
• IT & network service contract re-negotiation and scope rationalization
• Rent reduction through contract negotiation with service provider
• Elimination of hard copy subscriber acquisition form with electronic version
• Optimization of channel incentives
• Increased sales through digital channels
• Optimized shift in digital media for market spending
• Optimization of support
and overhead costs
• Control over
discretionary costs
• Effect realization of
headcount efficiency
• Further exercise
ongoing for Head
Quarter staff
22
MANAGING RISKS IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
While there are substantial challenges in the business environment, Grameenphone has more than 20 years
of experience in successfully managing regulatory and policy risks
Government’s Vision of
‘Digital Bangladesh’ Regulatory Developments Business Environment Management
• Realization of Digital Bangladesh
remains a political priority and
expected to enable growth in the
telecom industry
• Recognition of Telecom and ICT
sectors as enablers of economic
and socioeconomic development
• Numerous initiatives undertaken for
enabling local ecosystem for
software and IT services e.g. e-
government, public-private
partnerships
• Formulation of new regulations and
revision of existing ones through public
as well as industry consultation
• Nascent regulations regarding digital
services, but so far have been
conducive to continued growth i.e. e-
commerce policy
• Bangladesh Labour Act is under
review; anticipation of further clarity for
service sector employees
• Establishment as a trusted partner of
the Government as well as a service
provider, value creator and innovator
contributing towards Digital
Bangladesh vision
• Aspiration to strengthen
sustainability initiatives and role in
empowering society
• Considerable priority towards
managing regulatory and policy risks
by the company
• Collaboration with local and
international stakeholders
• Despite several rounds of consultations with BTRC and the auditors, our observations regarding the audit were ignored, especially
post February 2018.
• On 2 Apr’19, BTRC sent a demand of BDT 125.79 Bn payable within 10 working days from date of issuance of demand. BDT 84.94
Bn (Principle 22.99 Bn + Interest 61.94 Bn) was claimed by BTRC and BDT 40.86 Bn was claimed on behalf of NBR.
• After assessments, GP considers the demand unfounded and without any legal basis and accordingly on 16 Apr’19, GP responded
to BTRC requesting it to withdraw the claims and to enter into discussions with a view to find an amicable resolution.
• BTRC responded on 12 May’19 directing GP to make the full payment without any further delay. GP is in the process of assessing
this reply in order to determine the next course of action.
SMP
Regulations
• On 10 Feb’19 BTRC declared GP as SMP and subsequently issued 2 directives stating certain prohibitions towards GP on 18 Feb’
19. GP filed a writ petition challenging the above directives on 25 Feb’19.
• On 19 Mar’19, BTRC withdrew and cancelled the 2 directives issued on 18 Feb’19 and asked GP’s for feedback on 20 areas as cited
for further directives.
• On 31 Mar’19, GP responded to BTRC and denied to make any comment on 20 areas as the Letter did not contain any proposed
directives and no reason for issuing directives was given.
• On 12 May’19 BTRC issued a notice asking GP to provide feedback within 15 days on 4 new proposed remedies. GP is in the process
of assessing this notice in order to determine the next course of action.
QoS Reporting by
Regulator
BTRC
Audit
• On 18 Feb’19 BTRC published the QoS Drive test report in media without considering Industry observations regarding the drive test
methodology. GP along with the Industry rejected the report.
• On 3 Apr’19, BTRC has published QoS bench marking report for 4 division (Barishal, Khulna, Rajshahi & Rangpur).
• Call drop in GP network in all the 4 divisions are within KPI threshold. The industry and GP is still concerned about the non-aligned
drive test modalities .
Developing Regulatory Landscape
24
CONTINGENCIES
Sl. Items
Refer to Annual
Report 2018 and
1Q2019 Financial
Statements for details.
(https://www.grameenphone.
com/about/investor-
relations/ir-financial-report)
1 Information system audit by BTRC
2 SIM tax on replacement SIMs (2007 – 2011)
3 SIM tax on replacement SIMs (2012 – 2015)
4 Claim for VAT based on C&AG audit
5 VAT rebate on 2G license renewal fee
6 Interest on SIM Tax (2006 – 2007)
7 Interest for delayed payment of Guaranteed Annual Rent to
Bangladesh Railway
HEALTHY SHAREHOLDER RETURN
27
Total Shareholder Return** Payout Ratio and Dividend Yield*
• Dividend policy states at least 50% dividend payout of NPAT; last three years average payout was 101%
• Total shareholder return of 200% from 2013
• Outperformed local market index (DSEX) by 162 percentage points
*Considered closing price of prior trading session of record date
**Including dividend reinvestment and end period of 30 August 2018
220%
170%
120%
70%
20%
-30%
320%
270%
129%
109% 96%
105% 101% 98%
7.5%
4.9% 4.7% 5.9%
4.8%
3.2%
20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 (Inter im )
129%
109%
96% 105% 101%
108%
7.5% 4.9% 4.7% 5.9% 4.8%
7.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Investment & Payment to the Bangladesh Economy
27
19.3 21.1
14.5
34
4.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 3M 2019
Investment BDT Bn
17.14 Bn 4G License
Fees
• 16.9 Bn Capex in 2018 mainly for new 2G, 3G, LTE sites,
modernization
• BDT 20.3 Bn (58.1% of revenues) contributed to exchequer in the first quarter of 2019
• Contribution includes in the form of taxes, VAT, duties, fees, *4G license & spectrum assignment
51.1
58.6
61.8
71.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 3M 2019Payment to National Exchequer BDT Bn
51.1
58.6 61.8
71.5
20.3
2015 2016 2017 2018 3M 2019
12.7 Bn*
84.2
Summary
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Strong business performance in a challenging environment
EBITDA growth with strong margins
Building strong data network enabling personalization remains our focus for future growth & efficiency
Q1 2019 *In consideration of the local regulations, Grameenphone Ltd. does not provide any forward looking statements.