gps (governance, peace and security) initiative: a focus ... · nb. of hh (final) 10,303 8,804 -...
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The SHaSA (Strategic Harmonisation of Statistics in Africa) GPS (Governance, Peace and Security) initiative:
A focus on Corruption
Mireille RAZAFINDRAKOTO François ROUBAUD
DIAL-IRD
Meeting Task Force on Corruption Measurement (EGM) UNODC - UNDP
Vienna 12-14 October, 2016
I.- Governance survey modules: historical background
II.- GPS-SHaSA Initiative: scope, lessons & illustrations
Conclusion
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2 veins/approaches in measuring corruption through surveys
I.- (economic) Crime Surveys : ICVS Origin: Developed Countries II.- Governance Surveys : IGMS Origin: Developing Countries
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A focus on governance (after structural adjustment)
I.- Research: institutions matters!
II.- Policies: MDGs, PRSPs
A massive need for measurement
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Coton
ou
Oua
ga
Abidjan
Tana
Bam
ako
Niamey
Dak
ar
Lomé
Ave
rage
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Population who believes that making bribe is
acceptable
General population * (% from Household (HH) survey)
Expert panel (what they think could be the % of population whobelieves that making a bribe is acceptable)
Mirror Survey
HH Survey
How far can we trust the experts’ opinion on corruption?
(Razafindrakoto & Roubaud (2010), World Development)
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The global lessons 1: Content
Advantages of household sample surveys
Transparency of measurement procedures
Representativeness, precision, robustness
Quantification
Comparability of indicators over time.
In-depth policy-oriented analyses
More appropriate than international indicators and aggregates (complementary approach).
Both objective (behaviour, actual experiences) and subjective information (perception, satisfaction)
Monitoring and relating the two fundamental dimensions of these phenomena.
Socio-economic disaggregation
These two dimensions can be combined with traditional variables related to the socio-economic characteristics of individuals and households (gender, income/poverty, occupation, ethnic group, etc.).
Possibility to disaggregate information between different population categories (gender, poverty, ethnic groups, discriminated people, etc.
Spatial disaggregation (infra-national representativeness; Benin, Madagascar, Peru, Ecuador)
To produce regional indicators (relevance for piloting decentralization process, assisting local democracy
International comparability
Published in Academic Journals (World development, International Statistical Review, OECD Journal on Development, African Statistical Journal, etc.)
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The global lessons 2: Process
Ownership
Reliability
Sustainability
Conducted by National Statistical
Institute
Integration in the National Statistical
System
Relevance
Systematic Presentation /
Publication of the result wider public
Validation
Democratic debate demand
Bottom-up approach Investment in capacity
building
Light, flexible tool Reconductible time-series
Marginal cost HH survey « Voicing »
empowerment, accountability
Supply side Demand side Interactions
The Best Way to Relay the Voice of the Citizens
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Example 1: Madagascar (1-2-3 Survey) Incidence of bureaucratic corruption, political and economic conditions
Antananarivo, 1995-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2010
Corruption Civil servants real wage
Political
crisis
Active anti-
corruption policy
Political
crisis
Updated from Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2003), ”Wage and corruption: the case of Madagascar”, Global
Corruption Report 2003, Transparency International, pp. 292-294.
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Example 2: West Africa (1-2-3 Survey)
Incidence and determinants of petty corruption in French-speaking Africa
Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2004), ”Daily corruption in French speaking Africa”, Global Corruption
Report 2004, Transparency International, pp.346-348.
Niger Mada
gascar
Benin Togo Mali Senegal Côte d’Ivoire
Rate (total population) * 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 9.1% 10.3% 10.9% 16.5%
No contact with the administration 33.0% 23.5% 43.1% 41.1% 37.3% 19.0% 28.7%
Rate (those who have been in contact
with the administration)
12.1% 11.0% 15.3% 15.5% 16.4% 13.4% 23.1%
1st step: contact with administration
Gender (woman)
Education
Age
Inactivity
Speak French
--
++
++
--
ns
ns
++
ns
ns
ns
--
++
++
ns
ns
--
++
ns
ns
ns
--
++
ns
--
++
--
++
++
-
++
--
ns
ns
ns
++
2nd step : Risk factors /corruption
Gender n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (woman)
Age -- n.s. -- n.s. -- n.s. n.s.
Ethnic group/nationality n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (Diola) -- (Ivorian)
Religion n.s. n.s. n.s. -- (Catholic) n.s. n.s. -- (Catholic)
Education n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
Income + n.s. ++ n.s. ++ ++ ++
Civil servant - n.s. -- n.s. -- - -
Sample 6,330 3,020 6,330 1,900 4,530 6,590 4,760
Concordant pairs 70% 59% 71% 67% 65% 65% 63%
Sources: 1-2-3 surveys, PARSTAT, WAEMU 2001-2003 for West Africa and INSTAT/MADIO 2003 for
Madagascar.
Notes: Logit models with correction of the selection bias associated with contact with the administration. ++
(resp. --): significant coefficient (positive resp. negative) at the 5% level. + (resp. -): idem at the 10% level. n.s.:
not significant at the 5% level.
Main problems of the country, 2002-2014
(Percentage of the population 18 years of age and over)
59.7
50.6
44.5 44.2
43.1 41.6 37.1
41.1
38.2 38.0
35.3 33.4
24.9
11.9 10.9
8.6 8.7 12.6
13.8 12.1
13.8
14.2 13.4 14.4 13.6
12.6
32.4
16.8 16.9
21.4 21.1
18.8 17.9
21.3 23.8
26.1
27.0
29.4
36.5
11.9
6.8 5.7
8.4
14.8
10.9 8.3
11.8
15.8
23.9
40.9
51.5
56.8
75.0
64.7
57.2 55.9
48.4
41.9
32.1 33.7
28.9 26.0
23.2 21.2
16.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Corrupción
Falta de Seguridad Ciudadana -
Delincuencia
Pobreza
Falta de Empleo
Example 3: Peru (ENAHO Survey)
Note: Question with multiple answer.
1 / From 2002 to 2006, was asked by the "proliferation of crime". From 2012 he asks only for the 'crime‘
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI) - National Household Survey. Module: Governance, democracy and transparency.
Mala calidad de la educación estatal
Example 3: Peru (ENAHO Survey)
Herrera J., Roubaud F. (2004), ”Corruption and Poverty in Peru”, Global Corruption Report 2004, Transparency International, pp.343-345.
Corruption and poverty at population level
Expense
Quintiles
Incidence (total number
of individuals)
Incidence (individuals in
contact with the government)
Average Cost
(soles per capita/year) Pressure from
corruption (% of food expenses)
Reason for not filing a
complaint : fear of reprisals, do not know how to proceed
I 2.6% 3.1% 4.8 0.8% 49.3%
II 4.4% 5.3% 8.4 0.9% 41.1%
III 5.0% 5.8% 7.2 0.7% 22.5%
IV 6.2% 7.1% 21.6 1.4% 30.9%
V 7.9% 8.9% 33.6 1.2% 29.5%
Poverty condition
Non-poor 6.8% 7.9% 69 1.3% 29.6%
Poor 3.9%*** 4.6%*** 15*** 0.7% 36.5%***
Total 5.2% 6.1% 48 1.1% 32.3%
Source: Estimate by authors based on ENAHO 2002, IV quarter, INEI. 18,598 households.
Corruption in Vietnam :
the blank page mystery
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Cling J.-P., Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền, Nguyễn Hữu Chí, Phan
T. Ngọc Trâm, Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (2010), The
Informal Sector in Vietnam: A focus on Hanoi and Ho
Chi Minh City, Hanoi: The Gioi Editions, 247p..
14 Source: Youth Integrity Survey 2010,
Vietnam.
15 Source: Youth Integrity Survey
2010, Vietnam.
Dang Giang, Nguyen Thi Kieu Vien, Nguyen Thuy Hang, Razafindrakoto M.,
Roubaud F., Salomon M. (2011), Youth Integrity in Vietnam, Transparency
International, Hanoi, June.
• Statistics on governance, peace & security (GPS) are a governance tool and indication of data sovereignty
• Relevant to Africa’s measuring targets of new Goal 16 on “justice, peace and accountable institutions” in SDGs
• In My World survey (2m Africans in 7m respondents):
ohonest and responsible government rated 4th
oprotection against crime and violence rated 7th
• Foundational contribution to establish of Praia City Group on governance in UN Statistical Commission
• GPS an important aspect of Agenda 2063 in Africa
• Helpful contribution to reworking of APRM measures
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The GPS-SHaSA Initiative 2012-2015 (NSOs ownership; African Union leadership; UNDP Support; DIAL-IRD scientific assistance)
What is measured?
The SHaSA instruments
on GPS are aligned with
the African Union
Charter on Democracy,
Elections & Governance (signed by 45 countries)
STG1
Harmonization and
institutionalization
of Governance,
Peace and Security
(GPS) statistics
The SHaSA initiative Strategy for the
Harmonization of Statistics
in Africa
African Union Commission (AUC),
Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)
African Statistical Coordination Committee (ASCC)
• Policy frameworks - AU Charter on Democracy, Elections & Governance - AU Protocol on the Establishment of the Peace & Security Council - African Charter on Statistics, SHaSA Priority Themes and Work Program
4 instruments • Indicators - Factual and attitudinal - Core set + country-specific • Users - Continental (APRM, Early Warning System, Peace & Security Council, African Governance Platform) - Regional (RECs) - National (plans, post MDG, governance strategies, conflict prevention...)
Add-on Governance module on regular HH surveys
Add-on Peace & Security module on regular HH surveys
Administrative instrument on Governance
Administrative instrument on Peace & Security
Pilot countries Self-start countries Committed to implement
Cape Verde§ (2013-15) Benin (2015) Chad
Côte d’Ivoire* (2015) Burundi†* (2013/14) Congo-Brazzaville
Cameroon† (2015) Cote d’lvoire* (2015) Dem. Rep. of Congo
Kenya*† (2013-15) Madagascar (2015) Gabon
Malawi* (2015) Mali*§ (2013-16) Guinea-Conakry
Tunisia* (2014) Niger
* Official report issued Uganda* (2013) Senegal † Admin-based statistics Seychelles § Institutionalization (two iterations or +) Togo
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Pilot Countries Other Countries (self-starters)
Cameroon Cap
Verde Kenya Malawi Tunisia Benin Burundi
Côte
d’Ivoire Mali Uganda
Support Survey
Name of the Survey ECAM 4 IMC GATS WMS GPD EMICoV ECVMB ENV EMOP UNGBS
Type of Survey HLS/123 HLS/123 Specific HLS/123 GoV HLS/123 HLS /123 HLS/123 HLS/123 GoV
Number of PSUs 1,024 n.a. Test 699 298 911 415 1 068 911 375
Nb. of HH (theoretical) 12,848 9,918 Pilot 12,700 4,470 22,080 7,128 12,816 5,466 3,750
Nb. of HH (final) 10,303 8,804 - 14,198 n.a. 21,402 7,006 n.a. n.a. n.a.
GPS-SHaSA Module
Year of Survey 2014 2013-15 2013 2015 2014 2015 2013-14 2015 2014-15 2013
Unit of analysis Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult
Nb. of HH (from Support Surv) 50% 50% - All All All All 25% 100 33%
Nb. of individuals/household 1 n.a. 1 1 n.a. All All 1 <3 1
Nb. of individuals (in database) 5,102 3,771 74 14,198 14,000 39,991 13,116 3,082 13,835 1,036
Questionnaire Integral Integral Integral Partial Partial+ Integral+ Integral Integral Integral Partial+
Nb. of questions asked 61 60 60 n.d. n.a.+ 61+ 61 60 60 59+
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% Countries Burundi Côte d’Ivoire Mali 2014 Mali 2015 Ouganda
Governance
Satisfaction with democracy 1,1 0,0 2,2 0,0 0,0 Victim of corruption 0,8 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,0
Peace and Security Feeling of safety 0,5 0,0 2,3 0,0 0,0 Threaten with firearm 0,6 0,0 2,8 0,0 0,0
Labour market Activity Rate 0,0 0,0 1,7 2,0 n.d. Salarisation Rate 0,0 0,0 n.d. n.d. n.d. Unemployment Rate 0,0 0,0 1,7 2,0 n.d.
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Burundi Côte d'Ivoire Mali 2014 Mali 2015 Uganda
Governance
Satisfaction with democratcy 77,0% 56,4% 58,7% 57,5% 72,1%
[75,5 ; 78,5] [53,5 ; 59,2] [56,0 ; 61,4] [55,0 ; 60,0] [68,5 ; 75,5]
Contact with administration 80,4% 40,6% 11,5% 15,5% 29,0%
[78,4 ; 82,3] [37,9 ; 43,3] [10,2 ; 12,8] [14,1 ; 17,1] [25,9 ; 32,1]
Victime of corruption 4,4% 16,4% 7,5% 4,0% 18,0%
[3,7 ; 5,2] [14,3 ; 18,8] [8,7 ; 12,8] [3,4 ; 4,6] [15,3 ; 21,1]
Confidence in administration 86,6% 72,3% 67,4% 62,2% 61,9%
[85,3 ; 87,8] [69,7 ; 74,8] [64,7 ; 70,1] [59,9 ; 64,4] [58,2 ; 65,5]
Peace & Security
Perception of armed conflict threat 55,2% 47,2% 53,7% 59,4% 39,0%
[53,2 ; 57,2] [43,7 ; 50,7] [49,8 ; 57,5] [55,9 ; 62,8] [34,7 ; 43,6]
Victime of physical assault 4,3% 7,1% 1,7% 0,6% n.d.
[3,8 ; 5,0] [5,7 ; 8,8] [1,2 ; 2,2] [0,5 ; 0,8] -
Existance of structures to solve conflict 84,9% 65,5% 74,9% 67,1% 5,7%
[83,4 ; 86,3] [62,0 ; 68,7] [71, 8 ; 77,8] [64,3 ; 69,8] [4,3 ; 7,5]
Feeling of Insecurity 7,8% 29,1% 17,5% 31,6% 53,2%
[6,8 ; 8,9] [26,4 ; 31,9] [15,5 ; 19,8] [29,3 ; 34,1] [48,8 ; 57,6]
Labour Market
Activity Rate 88,0% 56,3% 69,8% n.a. n.a.
[87,2 ; 88,8] [53,5 ; 59,0] [68,0 ; 71,5] - -
Salarisation Rate 7,5% 14,9% n.a. n.a. n.a.
[6,7 ; 8,4] [12,8 ; 17,3] - - -
Unemployment Rate 2,4% 3,5% 5,2% n.a. n.a.
[2,1 ; 2,8] [2,6 ; 4,6] [4,4 ; 6,1] -. -.
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Tout à fait Plutôt Pas
vraiment
Pas du tout Tout à fait Plutôt Pas
vraiment
Pas du tout Tout à fait Plutôt Pas
vraiment
Pas du tout
se sent libre - liberté d'expression se sent libre - liberté d'association se sent libre - choix de vote/ élection
Resp
ecct
of
libert
ies –
Genera
l A
pp
recia
tion (in
%)
Personal Experience
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
jamais parfois souvent toujours
% o
f th
ose
wh
o t
hin
k th
at t
he
po
litic
ian
s ta
ke in
to
acco
un
t th
e o
rdin
ary
citi
zen
dem
and
s
How the National Deputies listen to the population?
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pas du tout Peu probable Plutôt probable Très probable
% o
f th
ose
wh
o f
ear
the
gen
eral
th
reat
of
crim
inal
vi
ole
nce
in t
he
cou
ntr
y
Probability to be personally victim of crime
Beaucoup Assez
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In % Malawi Mali Uganda Burundi Côte d'Ivoire
Presidency/Government 65.8 48.6 57.3 41.2 43.5
NGO/ Inter. Institution/ Research
center 14.9 34.9 23.0 33.5 39.8
Others 19.3 16.5 19.7 25.3 16.7
Total 100 100 100 100 100
30
31
32
33
39
50
51
71.5
28.8
14
11
29
7.5
10.4
15
3
3
1.1
6.1
6
6
2
3.2
6.4
26
30
15
16.7
44.1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Burundi (3% incidence)
Mali (8% incidence)
Uganda (19% incidence)
Côte d'Ivoire (18% incidence)
Malawi (3% incidence)
Police
Health
Justice
Tax
Other
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% of victims Quintiles of expenditures/consumption unit
(personally or a member of the HH) Total 1st quintile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile
Incidence (total population) 3.7 2.9 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.5
No contact with the administration 16.6 20.5 15.8 14.9 16.7 15.9
Incidence (population in contact) 4.4 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.6 5.4
In 1,000 FBU (per year)
Average amount (HH in contact)
57.4
28.5
26.0
17.9
25.4
126.7
Median amount (HH in contact) 10.0 7 10 5 5 20
% Expenditures (HH in contact) 2.1 3.8 1.8 1.1 1.1 2.5
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Perception of corruption in Mali : evolution between 2014 and 2015
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
en
%
Pas du tout Pas vraiment Assez Beaucoup Solde d'opinion
Sources : Enquêtes EMOP, Modules GPS-SHaSA, 2014 & 2015, INSTAT, Mali ; calculs des auteurs.
Note : la question est formulée comme suit : Dans quelle mesure les personnes suivantes sont-elles impliquées dans la corruption ?
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The GPS-SHaSA initiative is already making the difference in three respects:
Pushing further the frontiers of statistics (the big push for survey based indicators on GPS)
Promoting democratic governance in LDCs and over the world
Reverting the usual North-South methodological transfers to South-North, and in particular Africa-Rest of the world
A unique opportunity to catch
Extensions, next steps:
Scaling up in Africa (after pilot phase) : any donors in the room?
Enlarging the geographical scope on the methodological component (Praia Group: Done!)
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