gpci spin-up issues
DESCRIPTION
GPCI spin-up issues. Advertisement: CEOP cloud observations – coming up Spin-up: Why interesting? Errors: RMSE, bias, anomaly correlation, variabiltiy 5day evolutions Model errors: Hadley circulation, cirrus cloud, PBL height Some observations: w, IWP - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 1
• Advertisement: CEOP cloud observations – coming up
• Spin-up: Why interesting?
• Errors: RMSE, bias, anomaly correlation, variabiltiy
• 5day evolutions
• Model errors: Hadley circulation, cirrus cloud, PBL height
• Some observations: w, IWP
• A very speculative fix of a low resolution bias in climate models.
GPCI spin-up issues
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 2
CEOP observation proposal(with Rachel Pinker, U. Maryland and Mike Bosilovich, GMAO, NASA)
Linderberg lidar+radar
Dec 2004
• CEOP compares reference point and gridded data from observations and models
• Yet, there are NO cloud observations in CEOP database
• Add point data: TCC from ISCCP and cloud profiles form CLOUDNET lidar/radar
• Add gridded data: 5km / 1hour resolution data from METEOSAT and GOES
• Most interesting for diurnal cycle and Monsoon studies.
conv. cloudhigh cloudmed. cloudlow cloud
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 3
Initial errors - Schematic
True state
Analysis
Forecast
statevariable
(e.g. TCWV)
Time1day 5days
< 1kg/m2
1mm
Initial tendency reflects the errors of physical parameterizations assuming that analysis errors are small.
Balance between analysis and forecast model:Both have identical biases. Makes it hard to detect any errors.
Observations
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 4
History of spin-down: precip
29R2: Assim. Rain, limit q-incr
29R1: Moist BL, num. 1st step
28R3: num. cld+cnv, FG from
6+18, No SYNOP-q at night
28R2: Early delivery
28R1: Conv. changes
26R3: AIRS, New q-anal
25R3: Mult. Incr. 4DVAR, SSMI-rad, changes clds+cnv
25R1
24R3: Conv.+supersat
23R4:
TCWVAN-FC48h(20N-20S)
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 5
Spin-up Profile split into physical processesMark Rodwell, ECMWF
3696
202
353
539
728
884979
Ap
pro
x. P
res
su
re (
hP
a)
(a) CONTROL (b) CLOUD
-6 -3 0 3 6 0 1Kday-1 (K for bias)
3696
202
353
539
728
884979
Ap
pro
x. P
res
su
re (
hP
a)
(c) ENTRAIN/5
Frac-6 -3 0 3 6 0 1
Kday-1 (K for bias)
(d) ENTRAINx3
Frac
Dyn Rad V.Dif Con LSP Tot Bias Cloud Frac
3696
202
353
539
728
884979
Ap
pro
x. P
ress
ure
(hP
a)
(a) CONTROL (b) CLOUD
-6 -3 0 3 6 0 1Kday-1 (K for bias)
3696
202
353
539
728
884979
Ap
pro
x. P
ress
ure
(hP
a)
(c) ENTRAIN/5
Frac-6 -3 0 3 6 0 1
Kday-1 (K for bias)
(d) ENTRAINx3
Frac
Dyn Rad V.Dif Con LSP Tot Bias Cloud Frac
Temperature tendencies over first 6h.Amazon, Jan 2005.
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 6
Forecast setup
• Analysis: JJA 2003 ECMWF (e-suite with AIRS)
• Resolution: T42 (NCAR), T240 (UKMO), T399 (ECMWF)
• UKMO: SST climatology instead of SST JJA2003
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 7
RMSE, anomaly correlation, BIAS, variability
22
22 2x y x y
x y
x y
x x y yx y 2
RMSE
BIAS2 if ANC=1:
variability2
ANC:anomaly correlation
2
x y
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 8
U 850hPa RMSE, BIAS, AC, variability
U850hPa Diff in STDEV
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-2
-1
0
1
ST
DIF
F [
m/s
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6R
MS
E [
m/s
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
U850hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-4
-2
0
2
4
BIA
S [
m/s
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
U850hPa ANC
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
AN
C [
%]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 10
W500hPa Diff in STDEV
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
ST
DIF
F [
Pa/
s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
W500hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
W500hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
BIA
S [
Pa/
s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
W500hPa ANC
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
AN
C [
%]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
W 500hPa RMSE, BIAS, AC, variability
U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
RM
SE [
Pa/s
]
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 11
R900hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
10
20
30
40
50
RM
SE
[%
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
PT900hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[%
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
CC900hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
0
10
20
30
40
50
RM
SE
[%
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
Q900hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
RM
SE
[kg
/kg]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
RMSE 900hPa Q, PT, R, CC
U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
RM
SE [
K]
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 12
R900hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-40
-20
0
20
BIA
S [
%]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
Q900hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-0.004
-0.002
0.000
0.002
BIA
S [
kg/k
g]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
CC900hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
BIA
S [
%]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
PT900hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-4
-2
0
2
4
BIA
S [
K]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
BIAS 900hPa Q, PT, R, CC
U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 13
Q800hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
RM
SE
[%
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
PT800hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[%
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
R800hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
10
20
30
40
50
RM
SE
[%
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
CC800hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
0
10
20
30
RM
SE
[%
]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
RMSE 800hPa Q, PT, R, CC
U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 14
R800hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
BIA
S [
%]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
Q800hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-0.002
0.000
0.002
0.004
BIA
S [
kg/k
g]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
PT800hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
BIA
S [
K]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
CC800hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-10
0
10
20
BIA
S [
%]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
BIAS 800hPa Q, PT, R, CC
U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 15
GPCI spinup: Precipitation
Total Precipitation
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
[mm
/da
y]
lat=32lat=26lat=20lat=14lat= 8lat= 2
ECMWF
UKMO
NCAR
ITCZ precip spin-down: < factor 2
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 16
GPCI spinup: PBL height
Boundary Layer Height
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
500
600
700
800
900
1000
[m]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
ECMWF
UKMO
NCAR
UKMO, ECMWF: strcu zi spin-up: 100-200mNCAR: strcu zi spin-down: 80m
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 17
GPCI spinup: LWP
Liquid Water Path
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
[g/m
2]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
ECMWF
UKMO
NCAR
UKMO, ECMWF:strcu LWP spin-up: 20-40 g/m2
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 18
GPCI spinup: IWP
Ice Water Path
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0
10
20
30
40
50
[g/m
2]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
ECMWFNCAR
ECMWF: IWP spin-down: 20 g/m2
NCAR: IWP only 10 g/m2
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 20
Ice Content compared to Microwave Limb SounderLi, Jiang, Waliser, Tompkins
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 21
GPCI cross-section: Omega
W NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000 W ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000 W ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 22
GCSS Pacific Cross-section Project
V-Bias: METEOSAT-8, es6w: 20060205-20060208WVcloud1: N = 305328.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVcloud2: N = 345326.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
IR3: N = 404850.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS2: N = 103229.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS3: N = 286963.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV1: N = 58138.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV2: N = 83594.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
5.0m/s
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
2003070100 - 2003073118, EXPVER = 0001 Globe 2.76 N.Hem 2.5 Tropics 2.61 S.Hem 3.09 MIN 1.13 MAX 11.34 Vector-wind difference (m/s) of QuikSCAT vs ECMWF FGAT for all flows
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
4
5
6
Equator
sfc vector wind: QuikSCAT vs ECMWF FG
Thanks to Adrian Tompkins, Hans Herbach, Claire Delsol!
V-Bias: METEOSAT-8, es6w: 20060205-20060208WVcloud1: N = 305328.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVcloud2: N = 345326.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
IR3: N = 404850.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS2: N = 103229.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS3: N = 286963.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV1: N = 58138.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV2: N = 83594.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [
hP
a]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
V-Bias: METEOSAT-8 vs ECMWF FG
6.2 μm
IWC and W decay in 10d FC
W500hPa BIAS
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: CA to EQ
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
BIA
S [
Pa/
s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
ITCZ
Omega Bias at 500hPa U850hPa RMS error
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14points: EQ to CA
0
2
4
6
RM
SE
[m
/s]
ECMWF 1d/5d forecastNCAR 1d/5d forecastUKMO 1d/5d forecast
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 23
Speculation on resolution dependent bias
T at 400hPadxy=T399 - T159 Thomas Jung (2005)
half # cyclones in T95 vs T255
Peter Janssen (2005)
surface KE missing in T95 vs Quickscatv`T` transient meridional sensible heat transport
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 24
singular vector perturbation
global mean T at 400hPa
0 5 10 15fc time [d]
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
T(c
trl)
-T(t
=0
) [K
]
global mean T at 400hPa
0 5 10 15fc time [d]
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
T(p
ert
) -
T(c
trl)
[K
]
T255
T159
T511
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 25
Conclusions
• Errors found (compared to ECMWF analysis):– NCAR: equatorial 850hPa westward wind bias – NCAR: stratus warm dry bias– but clouds OK– UKMO: trade cumulus cold moist bias – high CC– All models: precip spin-down by factor 2– NCAR: PBL height down– UKMO, ECMWF: PBL height (and LWP) up – ECMWF: IWP reduces from 40g/m2 to 20g/m2 (fixed by CY31R1)– UKMO, ECMWF, NCAR: Hadley circulation slows down
• Interpretation:– Surface scatterometer wind and cloud vector winds support Hadley
circulation problem– Hypothesis: low resolution model misses pole-ward heat transport– Possible fix: use singular vector perturbations to amplify mid-latitude
eddies.
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 26
Extra Slides
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 27
Temperature bias change due to resolution
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 28
IWP in tropics: CY31R1 versus CY30R1
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240
time
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
TC
IW (
g m
-2)
region (nsew) 10,-10,180,-18020060801 to 20060831
0001 0031
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 29
V-Bias: METEOSAT-8, es6w: 20060205-20060208WVcloud1: N = 305328.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVcloud2: N = 345326.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
IR3: N = 404850.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS2: N = 103229.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
VIS3: N = 286963.
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV1: N = 58138.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
WVMV2: N = 83594.0
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]
1000
800
600
400
200
p [h
Pa]
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
5.0m/s
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
2003070100 - 2003073118, EXPVER = 0001 Globe 2.35 N.Hem 2.15 Tropics 2.18 S.Hem 2.66 MIN 0.88 MAX 10.75
Vector-wind difference (m/s) of QuikSCAT vs ECMWF ANALYSIS for all flows
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
4
5
6
5.0m/s
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
2003070100 - 2003073118, EXPVER = 0001 Globe 2.76 N.Hem 2.5 Tropics 2.61 S.Hem 3.09 MIN 1.13 MAX 11.34 Vector-wind difference (m/s) of QuikSCAT vs ECMWF FGAT for all flows
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
4
5
6
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 30
Validation of model against Meteosat 8 (IR channel)1 July - 31 August 2006 / 24h FC from 00Z
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel Image 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
230
236
242
248
254
260
266
272
278
284
290
296
302
304.5
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EObserved Image : 20060702 / 20060901 00ZK
230
236
242
248
254
260
266
272
278
284
290
296
299.7
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel-Obs Bias 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
-50
-35
-25
-15
-10
-5
-2.5
2.5
5
10
15
25
35
50
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel Image 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
230
236
242
248
254
260
266
272
278
284
290
296
302
304.5
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EObserved Image : 20060702 / 20060901 00ZK
230
236
242
248
254
260
266
272
278
284
290
296
299.7
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel-Obs Bias 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
-50
-35
-25
-15
-10
-5
-2.5
2.5
5
10
15
25
35
50
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel-Obs RMS 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
0.4430
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
44.35
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel-Obs Correlation 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
-1.1
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.35
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.35
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°E
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel-Obs RMS 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
0.4430
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
44.35
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel-Obs Correlation 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-08-31 00:00:00 +24h
K
-1.1
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.35
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.35
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°E
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 31
Validation of model against Meteosat 8 (IR channel)1 July / 24h FC from 00Z
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EModel Image 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-01 00:00:00 +24h
K
190
201
212
223
234
245
256
267
278
289
300
305.1
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°ESimulated Image 1: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-01 00:00:00 +24h
K
190
201
212
223
234
245
256
267
278
289
300
305.1
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
20°W
20°W 10°W
10°W 0°
0° 10°E
10°E 20°E
20°E 30°E
30°E 40°E
40°E 50°E
50°EObserved Image : 20060702 / 20060702 00ZK
190
201
212
223
234
245
256
267
278
289
300
305.4
30OW 20OW 10 OW 0O 10OE 20 OE 30OE
6.0N
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Cross section of cloud ice wat con 20060701 00 step 24 Expver 0001
0.005
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.1
0.2
0.3
Qice OPER CY30R1
30OW 20OW 10OW 0O 10OE 20OE 30OE
6.0N
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Cross section of cloud ice wat con 20060701 00 step 24 Expver 0031
0.005
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.1
0.2
0.3
150 hPa
480 hPa
Qice esuite CY31R1
150 hPa
480 hPa
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 32
Validation of model against Meteosat 81 July / 24h FC from 00Z: CCOV and Qliq.
30OW 20OW 10OW 0O 10OE 20OE 30OE
6.0N
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Cross section of cloud cov 20060701 00 step 24 Expver 0001
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
30OW 20OW 10OW 0O 10OE 20OE 30OE
6.0N
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Cross section of cloud cov 20060701 00 step 24 Expver 0031
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.082
30OW 20OW 10OW 0O 10OE 20OE 30OE
6.0N
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Cross section of cloud liq wat con 20060701 00 step 24 Expver 0001
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
30OW 20OW 10 OW 0O 10OE 20 OE 30OE
6.0N
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Cross section of cloud liq wat con 20060701 00 step 24 Expver 0031
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
OPER CY30R1 esuite CY31R1
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 33
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 34
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 35
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 36
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 37
Total Precipitation
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
[mm
/da
y]
lat=32lat=26lat=20lat=14lat= 8lat= 2
Boundary Layer Height
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
500
600
700
800
900
1000
[m]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
Liquid Water Path
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
[g/m
2]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
Total Cloud Cover
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0
20
40
60
80
100
[%]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 38
Ice Water Path
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0
10
20
30
40
50[g
/m2
]lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
Convective Precipitation
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
[%]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
Surface Latent Heat Flux
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0
50
100
150
200
[%]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
Surface Sensible Heat Flux
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0
5
10
15
20
[%]
lat=32
lat=26
lat=20
lat=14
lat= 8
lat= 2
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 39
Large-Scale Precipitation
0 1 2 3 4 5Time [days]
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
[mm
/da
y]
lat=32lat=26lat=20lat=14lat= 8lat= 2
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 40
CIWC NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000010.0000020.0000030.0000040.0000050.0000060.0000070.0000080.0000090.000010
CIWC NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000010.0000020.0000030.0000040.0000050.0000060.0000070.0000080.0000090.000010
CIWC UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000010.0000020.0000030.0000040.0000050.0000060.0000070.0000080.0000090.000010
CIWC UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000010.0000020.0000030.0000040.0000050.0000060.0000070.0000080.0000090.000010
CIWC ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000010.0000020.0000030.0000040.0000050.0000060.0000070.0000080.0000090.000010
CIWC ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000010.0000020.0000030.0000040.0000050.0000060.0000070.0000080.0000090.000010CIWC ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000010.0000020.0000030.0000040.0000050.0000060.0000070.0000080.0000090.000010
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 41
U NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-9.400000-6.800000-4.200000-1.6000001.0000003.6000006.2000008.80000111.400000
U NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-9.400000-6.800000-4.200000-1.6000001.0000003.6000006.2000008.80000111.400000
U UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0m
odel
leve
ls
-9.400000-6.800000-4.200000-1.6000001.0000003.6000006.2000008.80000111.400000
U UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-9.400000-6.800000-4.200000-1.6000001.0000003.6000006.2000008.80000111.400000
U ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-9.400000-6.800000-4.200000-1.6000001.0000003.6000006.2000008.80000111.400000
U ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-9.400000-6.800000-4.200000-1.6000001.0000003.6000006.2000008.80000111.400000
U ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-9.400000-6.800000-4.200000-1.6000001.0000003.6000006.2000008.80000111.400000
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 42
V NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-8.000000-6.400000-4.800000-3.200000-1.6000000.0000001.6000003.2000004.8000006.400000
V NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-8.000000-6.400000-4.800000-3.200000-1.6000000.0000001.6000003.2000004.8000006.400000
V UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0m
odel
leve
ls
-8.000000-6.400000-4.800000-3.200000-1.6000000.0000001.6000003.2000004.8000006.400000
V UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-8.000000-6.400000-4.800000-3.200000-1.6000000.0000001.6000003.2000004.8000006.400000
V ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-8.000000-6.400000-4.800000-3.200000-1.6000000.0000001.6000003.2000004.8000006.400000
V ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-8.000000-6.400000-4.800000-3.200000-1.6000000.0000001.6000003.2000004.8000006.400000 V ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-8.000000-6.400000-4.800000-3.200000-1.6000000.0000001.6000003.2000004.8000006.400000
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 43
W NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
W ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000 W ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
-0.120000-0.102000-0.084000-0.066000-0.048000-0.030000-0.0120000.0060000.0240000.042000
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 44
CC NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
CC NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
CC UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0m
odel
leve
ls
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
CC UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
CC ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
CC ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
CC ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 45
R NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
R NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
R UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
R UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
R ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
R ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
R ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
10.00000020.00000030.00000040.00000050.00000060.00000070.00000080.00000090.000000
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 46
CLWC NCAR 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000100.0000200.0000300.0000400.0000500.0000600.0000700.0000800.0000900.000100
CLWC NCAR 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000100.0000200.0000300.0000400.0000500.0000600.0000700.0000800.0000900.000100
CLWC UKMO 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000100.0000200.0000300.0000400.0000500.0000600.0000700.0000800.0000900.000100
CLWC UKMO 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000100.0000200.0000300.0000400.0000500.0000600.0000700.0000800.0000900.000100
CLWC ECMWF 1d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000100.0000200.0000300.0000400.0000500.0000600.0000700.0000800.0000900.000100
CLWC ECMWF 5d forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000100.0000200.0000300.0000400.0000500.0000600.0000700.0000800.0000900.000100CLWC ECMWF analysis
2 4 6 8 10 12points: CA to EQ
1000
800
600
400
200
0
mod
el le
vels
0.0000100.0000200.0000300.0000400.0000500.0000600.0000700.0000800.0000900.000100
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 47
History of spin-up (20N-20S)
eConvergencEPdt
dTCWV
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 48
History of spin-up
(20N-20S)
29R2: Assim. Rain, limit q-incr
29R1: Moist BL, num. 1st step
28R3: num. cld+cnv, FG from
6+18, No SYNOP-q at night
28R2: Early delivery
28R1: Conv. changes
26R3: AIRS, New q-anal
25R3: Mult. Incr. 4DVAR,
SSMI-rad, clds+cnv changes
25R1
24R3: Conv.+supersat
23R4:
List with selection of model changes. In addition there were many changes to the use of satellite data.
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 49
History of spin-up (20N-20S)
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 50
Conclusions on spin-up
• Spin-up has improved with: 1. A modest reduction in precipitation spindown2. A substantial reduction in TCWV spindown3. A change from increase of evaporation during the forecast
to a decrease of evaporation. (BL has become more dry in analysis).
• It is difficult to make a precise link between model changes and impact on spin-up
• Model changes and data assimilation changes (including use of satellite data) have contributed
• It is impossible to verify TCWV within 1 kg/m2 using radio sonde data.
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 52
End – Extra Slides
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 53
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 54
Resolution Dependent BiasMartin Köhler, with lots of help by Anton, Thomas, Mark, Nils & Martin L.
Thomas Jung (2005)
half # cyclones in T95 vs T255
Peter Janssen (2005):
surface KE missing in T95 vs Quickscat
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 55
IFS experimentation to examine temperature bias change from EPS
IFS experiments were performed to investigate the bias changes due to perturbations due to the singular vector initial perturbations and the stochastic phyics. Both types of perturbation try to add spread to the ensemble. Averaged over an ensemble the introduced perturbations should be close to zero. Yet, they could introduce evolving biases through non-linear interactions with the flow.The hypothesis is tested if these perturbations can induce more mid-latitude cyclone activity and therefore more transient fluxes transporting heat from the tropic poleward. The latter part of this presentation indicates, that these mid-latitude transient fluxes coupled with increased tropical surface fluxes lead to a heating of the mid-latitudes.The experiments were run every 5 days during 20040905-20050405 during which operations was using CY28R3/4. The RD experiments were all run under CY28R3. The EPS was run with 6 perturbed members.
expid xy-res. z-res dt-res. type
1 T511 L60 900s fc
1 T255 L40 2700s cf
1 T255 L40 2700s pf (6mem)
eqjm T95 L40 2700s cf
eqjm T95 L40 2700s pf (6mem)
eqjp T95 L40 2700s cf
eqjp T95 L40 2700s pf (6mem)
GCSS meeting 9-2006 Martin Köhler 56
Temperature bias change due to resolution
EPS T255-T95 day 4
EPS T511-T255 day 4
T511
T255
T95
T511, T255 and T95 evolve into different climates in terms of temperature. The equilibrium temperature at 400hPa appears to be about 0.6K warmer in T255 than in T95 (mostly mid-latitudes) and a further 0.6K warmer in T511 than in T255 (mostly tropics). We argue that the mid-latitude signal is mostly due to horizontal fluxes and the tropical signal is mostly due to the time-step.