governor stefan ingves the swedish economy and monetary policy nbp warsaw 24 may 2012
TRANSCRIPT
Financial markets fragile
0
1
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5
6
7
8
0
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2
3
4
5
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7
8
08 09 10 11 12
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
Sweden
Weak growth in the euro area…
GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
The world
USA
Euro area
…which dampens Swedish exportsExport market and exports
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Export
BNP
Improvement at the start of the year
Index, 2007 = 100 Source: Statistics Sweden
75
85
95
105
115
75
85
95
105
115
07 08 09 10 11 12
Export of goods
Retail trade index
Some positive signs
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
80
90
100
110
120
07 08 09 10 11 12
The Economic TendencyIndicatorMean
+/- one standarddeviation
Index, mean value = 100, standard deviation = 10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Labour market to deteriorate slightly over the coming year
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Unemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
Low inflation
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-1
0
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3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CPIF
CPI
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Repo rate to remain low
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5
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February
April
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
A forecast, not a promise
-2
-1
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7
-2
-1
0
1
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7
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
90%75%50%UtfallPrognos
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
Household´s debt
Note. The series refers to the Riksbank's own calculations using data from Statistics Sweden.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
50
100
150
200
50
100
150
200
85 90 95 00 05 10
Debt/disposable income
Sweden has a large banking sector that is dependent on other countries…Bank assets in relation to GDP
Note. Per cent. Data refer to December 2010. Sources: ECB, European Commission, Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
EstoniaSlovakiaRomaniaBulgariaPolandLatvia
LithuaniaHungary
Czech RepublicFinland
SloveniaLuxembourg
BelgiumItaly
GreeceAveragePortugal
IrelandGermanyDenmark
AustriaFranceSpain
SwedenNetherlands
United KingdomSwitzerland
The major Swedishbanks' foreign operations
Swedish banks are de facto Nordic-Baltic
Swed
en
Norway
Denm
ark
Finla
nd
Esto
nia
Latv
ia
Lithu
ania
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
SwedbankSEBNordeaHandelsbanken
Norway:16 %
Denmark:15 %
Finland:39 %
Estonia: 81 %
Latvia: 53 %
Lithuania: 62 %
Sweden:75 %
Market share of Swedish banks inNordic and Baltic countries, late 2009
Sources: Official and industry data, Riksbank estimates