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GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL THIRD QUARTER 2016 28 OCTOBER 2016

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Page 1: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

GOVERNMENT

PENSION FUND

GLOBAL

THIRD QUARTER 2016

28 OCTOBER 2016

Page 2: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Real estate investments

Fixed-income investments

Equity investments

Market value

Billions of kroner. As at 30.09.2016

2

Value Percentage share

Equity investments 4,317 60.6

Fixed-income investments 2,584 36.3

Real estate investments 218 3.1

Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 3: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Inflow/withdrawal

Billions of kroner

3

-30

44

50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016

Inflow/withdrawal

Average inflow since1998

Average quarterlyinflow past 10 years

Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 4: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016

Krone rate

Return

Inflow/withdrawal

Total

Quarterly change in market value

Billions of kroner

4

3Q 2016

Return 240

Inflow/withdrawal -30

Krone rate -269

Total -58

Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 5: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Return

Measured in the fund’s currency basket. Quarterly return.

Percent

5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly return

Accumulated annualisedreturn since 1998

3Q 2016 4.0%

Last 10 years 5.3%

Since 1998 5.7%

Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 6: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Return on asset classes

Measured in the fund’s currency basket.

Percent

6

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016

Equity investments

Fixed-income investments

Real estate investments3Q 2016

Equity investments 6.0%

Fixed-income investments 0.9%

Real estate investments 2.3%

Total 4.0%

Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 7: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Relative return

Equity and fixed-income investments.

Percentage points

7

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly relative returns

Accumulated annualisedrelative return

Accumulated annualisedrelative return last 10years

3Q 2016 0.17%

Last 10 years 0.05%

Since 1998 0.25%

Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 8: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Changes in value since 1996

30.09.2016 30.6.2016 31.3.2016

Gross inflow of new capital 3,423 3,452 3,475

Accumulated return 2,925 2,685 2,591

Management costs -34 -33 -32

Changes due to fluctuations in

krone804 1,073 1,045

Market value of the fund 7,118 7,177 7,079

Billions of kroner

8Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 9: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Historical key figures

Since 1.1.1998 Last 10 years

Return on fund 5.66 5.35

Annual inflation 1.76 1.76

Annual management costs 0.09 0.08

Annual net real return on fund 3.75 3.44

Measured in the currency basket. Annualised.

Percent

9Source: Norges Bank Investment Management

Page 10: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

80

90

100

110

120

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

FTSE Global All Cap(global)

Stoxx Europe 600(Europe)

MSCI Asia Pacific(Asia)

S&P 500 (USA)

Developments in equity markets

Measured in USD (Stoxx in EUR). Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100)

10Source: Bloomberg

FTSE

Global All

Cap

S&P 500

Stoxx

Europe

600

MSCI

Asia

Pacific

3Q 2016 4.9% 3.3% 4.0% 8.4%

YTD 2016 5.1% 6.1% -6.3% 5.9%

Page 11: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

Technology

Basic materials

Financials

Utilities

Telecommunications

Developments in equity sectors

Measured in USD. Indexed total return (31.12.2015 = 100)

11

Technology

Basic

materials Financials Utilities

Tele-

communications

3Q 2016 13.4% 9.6% 7.4% -2.6% -1.4%

YTD 2016 13.3% 20.3% 1.7% 12.2% 8.4%

Source: FTSE

Page 12: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

95

100

105

110

115

120

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

Dollar

Pound

Yen

Euro

Development for bonds

Measured in local currency. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100)

12Source: Bloomberg Barclays Indices

Dollar Pound Yen Euro

3Q 2016 0.5% 3.3% -1.8% 1.0%

YTD 2016 5.9% 14.4% 4.7% 5.9%

Page 13: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

95

100

105

110

115

120

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

Government bonds

Government-relatedbonds

Corporate bonds

Securitised debt

Inflation-linked bonds

Price developments for bonds

Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100)

13

Government

bonds

Government-

related bonds

Corporate

bonds

Securitised

bonds

Inflation-

linked bonds

3Q 2016 0.4% 1.4% 1.9% 0.8% 3.2%

YTD 2016 12.0% 8.8% 8.8% 4.2% 9.8%

Source: Bloomberg Barclays Indices

Page 14: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Real estate investments and disposals

14

Announced in the third quarter of 2016

Location Partner Price Share

Constitution Square,

Washington D.C.MetLife 1.7 billion kroner* 47.5

100 First Street and 303 Second

Street, San FranciscoKilroy Realty Corporation 3.8 billion kroner 44

355-361 Oxford Street, London 1.4 billion kroner 100

Location Partner Price Share

Two logistics properties in the US Prologis 751 million kroner 45

INVESTMENTS

DISPOSALS

*Initial payment of 590 million kroner + projected costs

Page 15: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

Highlights

The fund returned 4.0 percent in third quarter 2016

The return on equity and fixed-income investments was 0.2 percentage point

higher than the return on the benchmark indices

The market value of the fund decreased by 58 billion kroner to 7,118 billion kroner

At the end of the quarter, the fund was invested as follows:

• Equity investments 60.6 percent

• Fixed-income investments 36.3 percent

• Real estate investments 3.1 percent

15

Page 16: GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL · Corporate bonds Securitised debt Inflation-linked bonds Price developments for bonds Measured in USD. Indexed (31.12.2015 = 100) 13 Government bonds

GOVERNMENT

PENSION FUND

GLOBAL

THIRD QUARTER 2016

28 OCTOBER 2016