governance, pease and security in africa: the imperative of both social cohesion and statistics on...
TRANSCRIPT
Governance, Pease and Security in Africa: The Imperative of both Social Cohesion and
Statistics on Social Cohesion
First Meeting of the Governance, Peace and Security Statistics: “Harmonisation of GP&SS”
François NdengweAfrican Advisory Board
T: +33(0)6 1339 0107 – [email protected]
Nairobi – Kenya, 23 – 25 May 2012
Organized by
African Union Commission
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION: The Definition Problem
I.Costs of Social UnCohesion for AfricansII.Demographic HeterogeneityIII.Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa
CONCLUSION: Sciences in Public Policy
INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem
Why Definition Matters
What is “GOVERNANCE”
Oxford English Dictionary• From old French “Gouvernance”• “The action or manner of governing”• “Controlling, directing, or regulating influence; control, sway, mastery”• “The manner in which something is governed or regulated; method of management, system of regulations”• “Discreet or virtuous behaviour; wise self-command”
African Union, 6th Summit of the Nepad Heads of State & Government Implementation Committee – 9 March 2003 – Abuja, Nigeria, Paragraph 1.8• “To facilitate the measuring of performance and progress, this document identifies the following components in each of the four substantive areas of the Declaration:
Democracy and political Governance Economic Governance and Management Corporate Governance Socio-Economic Development” + Environmental Governance (added later)
INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem
What is «SOCIAL COHESION » ?« There is no single accepted definition of social cohesion” (Perspectives onGlobal Development 2012 SOCIAL COHESION IN A SHIFTING WORLD, OECD, Nov 2011)
Proposed Definitions of « Social Cohesion » Oxford English Dictionary
Cohesion: From French “Cohésion”• «The action or fact of forming a united whole”• “The action or condition of cohering; cleaving or sticking together; spec. the force with which the molecules of a body or substance cleave together”
Club de Madrid (2009)« Socially cohesive or ‘shared’ societies are stable, safe and just, and are based on the promotion and protection of all human rights, as well as on non-discrimination,tolerance, respect for diversity, equality of opportunity, solidarity, security andparticipation of all people, including disadvantaged and vulnerable groups and persons.”
OECD Definition : The triangle Social Mobility Social Inclusion Social Capital
AAB proposed definition: The SQUARE
«Social Cohesion is the feeling of « togetherness » based on trust, shared values, progress in harmony, defense vis-à-vis common threats »
TRUST
DEFENSESh. VALUES
P in H
INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem
I.- Costs of Social Uncohesion for Africans
Africans’ SOCIAL UNCOHESION:
One cause of slavery aggression success in Africa
A facilitator of slavery in slavery days - In o Africa (Jean-Charles Sismonde de Sismondi (1773 – 1842), De l’Intérêt de la France à l’égard de la traite des nègres) o “The New World” (Compulsory loss of language, ethnicity, culture, humanity)
An Allied of Europeans in the Berlinisation of Africa - Berlin Conference, 14 European Countries, Nov 1884 – Feb 1885
A permanent tool of the colonial aggressors in colonialist days
A spike in the hands of Apartheid theorists and practionners
A flame to set on Africans-on-Africans massacres – François Mitterand, Mémoires Interrompues, Paris, Odile Jacob (on Charles De Gaulle and his followers manipulating one group of Africans to kill other Africans) A spur on dispossession of Africans through “Washington Consensus’s privatization and structural adjustments plans
I.- Costs of Social Uncohesion for Africans
No SOCIAL COHESION, No PEACE
No SOCIAL COHESION, No SECURITY
No SOCIAL COHESION, No GOVERNANCE
No SOCIAL COHESION, WARS, even GENOCIDE
No SOCIAL COHESION, No ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
No SOCIAL COHESION, No HUMAN PROGRESS
II.- Demographic Heterogeneity: Most Singular Trait (Threat) of African Societies
Why African Demographic Heterogeneity (ADH) Matters
ADH: What Origin ? Why ? What’s Africa’s specificity? What does ADH tells about Africans?
Statistics as a Science to Measure ADH
Unfortunately, No African Stats Institution measures it or gives it the importance it deserves Nature abhorring vacuum, trickeries, lies, instinctive drive, take the place of enlightened debate and tolerance
Consequence: o Social Un-Cohesion (Distrust, No shared value, No progress, no harmony, no defense vis-à-vis external aggression)o Tribalism (« Africa: the Continent of Tribalism! ») o Injustice (Distrust of the Judicial System)o Antipatriotism, Permanent insecurity, Wars, Genocide (Rwanda), State breakdown (Sudan/South Sudan, Mali, and who’s next?) o Africa: The only one defenseless continent in the world
Two measures of Africa’s high and unparalleled Demographic Heterogeneity
1/ ETHNICITY
Africa has 3,315 ethnic groups, while
China has 56 ethnic groups, of which the Han ethnic group alone makes up 90% (Africa is 60 times more heterogeneous than China)
USA has 6 ethnic groups(Africa is 553 times more heterogeneous than USA)
India, Brazil, Russia, Europe,
The World has 5,000 ethnic groups (Africa: 64% of world ethnic groups and only 14% of world population)
Ethnic: “Pertaining to nations not Christian or Jewish; Gentile, heathen, pagan * Relating to a population subgroup (within a larger or dominant national or cultural group) with a common national or cultural tradition * Pertaining to or having common racial, cultural, religious, or linguistic characteristics ” (Oxford English Dictionary)
Sources: Investing in Cultural Diversity and Intercultural Dialogue, UNESCO, 2009; Doyle, By the Numbers: Ethnic Groups in the World, Scientific American Magazine, September 1998; http://www.numberof.net/number-of-ethnicities-in-the-world/ ; http://www.ethnologue.com
Two measures of Africa’s high and unparalleled Demographic Heterogeneity
1/ ETHNICITY
Doyle, By the Numbers: Ethnic Groups in the World, in Scientific American Magazine, September 1998
• “Many of the world’s problems stem from the fact that it has 5,000 ethnic groups but only 190 countries.
• “This situation is illustrated on the map, which shows that few states are ethnically homogeneous and that many, particularly in Africa, have no majority ethnic group.
• “Since 1945 some 15 million people have been killed in conflicts involving ethnic violence, although ethnic tensions have not necessarily been the catalyst.
• “Among the worst incidents were the 1994 civil war in Rwanda, which resulted in more than a million dead and three million refugees,
• “and the 1947 communal riots in India, which left several hundred thousand dead and 12 million refugees”
Post election Violence in Kenya, 2007-2008
Two measures of Africa’s high and unparallel Demographic Heterogeneity
2/ LANGUAGE
Greenberg Linguistic Diversity Index : “ A measure of the probability that 2 randomly chosen persons in a country have different mother tongue” (2005 edition of Ethnologue)
DI, Linguistic Diversity Index of the country
Pi, percentage of the total population which comprises the ith language group of the country
n, number of the country’s indigenous languages
The highest possible value 1 indicates total diversity (i.e. no two persons have the same mother tongue)
The lowest possible value 0 indicates no diversity at all (i.e. everyone has the same mother tongue).
country NIL % WL DI
ALGERIA 18 0.26 0.313
EGYPT 11 0.16 0.509
LIBYA 9 0.13 0.362
MOROCCO 9 0.13 0.466
TUNISIA 6 0.09 0.012
NIL, Number of Indigenous Languages%WL, Percentage of World Language (Total of WL is 6912)DI, Linguistic Diversity Index
Source: Investing in Cultural Diversity and Intercultural Dialogue, UNESCO, 2009
country NIL % WL DI
ANGOLA 41 0.59 0.785
BENIN 54 0.78 0.901
BURKINA 68 0.98 0.773
CAMEROON 279 4.04 0.947
CAR 69 1 0.96
CHAD 132 1.92 0.95
CONGO 62 0.90 0.82
DR CONGO 214 3.10 0.948
C. IVOIRE 78 1.13 0.917
ERITHREA 12 0.17 0.749
ETHIOPIA 84 1.22 0.843
GABON 41 0.59 0.919
GAMBIA 9 0.13 0.748
GHANA 79 1.14 0.805
GUINEA 39 0.49 0.748
GUINEA B 21 0.30 0.853
country NIL % WL DI
KENYA 61 0.88 0.901
LIBERIA 30 0.43 0.912
MALI 50 0.72 0.876
MOZAMBIQ 43 0.62 0.929
NAMIBIA 28 0.41 0.808
NIGERIA 510 7.38 0.648
SENEGAL 36 0.52 0.772
SOUTH A 24 0.35 0.869
TANZANIA 127 1.84 0.965
TOGO 39 0.56 0.897
UGANDA 43 0.62 0.928
ZAMBIA 41 0.59 0.855
KENYA 61 0.88 0.901
RWANDA 3 0.04 0.004
SOMALIA 13 0.19 0.179
country NIL % WL DI
INDIA 415 6 0.93
PAKISTAN 72 1.04 0?762
CHINA 235 3.4 0.491
INDONESIA 735 10.63 0.846
JAPAN 15 0.22 0.028
KOREA 2 0.03 0.003
MALAYSIA 140 2.03 0.758
THAILAND 74 1.07 0.753
VIETNAM 102 1.48 0.234
BELGIUM 9 0.13 0.734
France 29 0.42 0.272
GERMANY 27 0.39 0.189
RUSSIA 101 1.46 0.283
SWEDEN 15 0.22 0.167
TURKEY 34 0.49 0.289
UK 12 0?17 0.139
country NIL % WL DI
CANADA 85 1.23 0.549
USA 162 2.34 0.353
BRAZIL 188 2.72 0.032
AUSTRALIA 231 3.34 0.126
PAPUA N GU
820 11.86 0.972
VANUATU 109 1.58 0.972
III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job
Lord KELVIN (William Thomson) (1824 – 1907)
o “To measure is to know (…) If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.“
o “I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind;
o “it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely in your thoughts advanced to the state of Science, whatever the matter may be."[PLA, vol. 1, "Electrical Units of Measurement", 1883-05-03]
Statistics a Science to Enhance Social Cohesion in Africa
III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job
MEASURING THE SQUAREo TRUSTo SHARE VALUESo PROGRESS IN HARMONYo DEFENSE VIS-À-VIS COMMON THREATS
Are African National Statistics Institutions equip for this measurement?
UNFORTUNATELY NO No African Stats Institution measures it or gives it the importance it deserves, Nature abhorring vacuum, trickeries, lies, instinctive drive take the place of enlightened debate and tolerance
TRUST
DEFENSESh. VALUES
P in H
III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job
WHAT TO DO ?
o Vigorous Action is Needed
o Rewrite The Focus (and the Rule?) of African NSIs to include “Social Cohesion”
o “Social Cohesion” as a Priority of public Policy in Africa
o “Social Cohesion” LEADER, CHAMPION, in each government and at the Continental level
CONCLUSION
SOCIAL COHESION: Prerequisite and Reinforcer of Governance, Peace and Security in Africa
SCIENCE IN PUBLIC POLICY
WAITING FOR COPERNICUSo What Political System best handle and strengthen “Social Cohesion”, African Demographic Heterogeneity? It’s Not Democracy o What Economic System best handle and strengthen “Social Cohesion”, African Demographic Heterogeneity? It’s Not “Market Economy” or “Washington Consensus”
(List of imported and failing concept: SAP, HIPC, Underdeveloped countries, MENA, …=
MEASURE AND ENLARGE THE SQUARE
THE SQUARE AS A COMPASS For African Public policy and prosperity in the time of a reshaping of global politics and crisis in the currently dominant world
AFRICA MUST UNITE
