governance and millennium development goals · imf working paper no. 04/217. 2. filmer&...

1

Governance and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs):

Results, Reflections and Implications for Debate

Daniel Kaufmann*, The Brookings Institution

Presentation at the Third “States General” [Taking Stock] of Development Cooperation, on ‘The MDGs: How to step up efforts?’

Convened by the Development Cooperation of Belgium,

at the Crowne Plaza Hotel, Brussels, May 4th, 2010

* Grateful to the excellent research assistance of V. Penciakova.

http://www.brookings.edu/global.aspx

2

Major Progress in the MDGs?: Number of People Living on Less than $1.25 a day, 1990‐2005,

Developing/Emerging Economies

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

1990 1996 2002 2005

AllDeveloping

East Asia

Peop

le Living Be

low $1.25

a day (m

.)

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators & Chen and Ravallion, “The developing world is poorer than we thought, but no less successful in the fight against poverty,’World Bank Working Paper 4702, 2008; Sample: 119 Countries

3

MDG Progress on Poverty less than meets the eye?: # People w/ Less than $1.25 a day, without China

0

400

800

1200

1600

1990 1996 2002 2005

DCs w/out China

South Asia

Africa

Latin America

E. Europe & CIS

# Pe

ople Below

$1.25

a day (m

.)


4

Poverty remains a major challenge: # People on Less than $2 a day, 1990‐2005 (minus China)

0

600

1200

1800

2400

1990 1996 2002 2005

DC w/o China

South Asia

Africa

Latin America

Europe & CentralAsiaPe

ople Living Be

low $2 a day (m

.)


5

MDG Goals: MDG Targets (T): Initially Recently Target

25%

17%

88%

95

74

450

2.7%

T1: Halve # people without access to sanitation (1990/2006)

57% 45% 28%Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability

16%

T1: Halve $1.25 a day poverty (1990/2005)

42% 21%Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Hunger and Poverty

T2: Halve undernourishment(1990‐92/2004‐06)

20% 10%

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education

Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality

Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality

Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

T: Universal education (2000/2007) 83% 100%

T: Equal Ratio of girls’ to boys’primary school enrollment (1999/2007)

91 100

T: Reduce it by 2/3rd (1990/2007) 103 34

T: Reduce by three‐quarters the Maternal Mortality (1990/2005)

480 120

T: Reverse the rise of new infections of HIV/AIDS (in millions) (1990/2007)

2% < 2%

T2: Halve # people without access to clean water (1990/2006)

28% 14%

Sources: UN, “Millennium Development Goals Report, 2009” & World Bank WDI; in parentheses are the earliest and latest years for which data is available; sample includes all low and middle income countries (including China). Some specific targets, such as access to water, not included here.

http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/MDG_Report_2009_ENG.pdf

6

Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI): Six Dimensions of Governance

• Process by which those in authority are selected/ replaced – VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY – POLITICAL STABILITY & ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM

• Capacity of government to formulate & implement policies– GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS– REGULATORY QUALITY

• Respect of citizens and state for institutions that govern interactions among them – RULE OF LAW – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION

Governance as the set of traditions and institutions by which authority in a country is exercised‐‐ specifically:

7

Governance Matters for the MDGs: Corruption and Population under Poverty Line are related (WGI, 2001‐2008)*

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Less than 1.25 per day Less than 2.00 per day

Very High Relatively High Medium/LowCorruption:

* Developing Country Sample, Excluding Oil‐Rich Countries. Sources:World Bank & Kaufmann, Kraay, Mastruzzi, Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), 2008. Variables are in 2001‐2008 averages; Terciles determined by dividing sample of 119 countries in terciles based on WGI‐CC.

% pop

ulation be

low poverty line

8

Control of Corruption & Infant Mortality Rate, 2001‐2008 (Developing Country Sample, Excluding Oil Rich Countries)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


Sources:World Bank & Kaufmann, Kraay, Mastruzzi, Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2008; All variables are expressed as 2001‐2008 averages; Terciles determined by dividing sample of 119 countries in terciles based on WGI‐CC.

Und

er‐5 M

ortality Ra

te,

(per 1,000

)

9

WGI‐Control of Corruption & Undernourishment, 2001‐2008

(Developing Country Sample, Excluding Oil Rich Countries)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



Und

erno

urishm

ent,

(% of p

opulation)

10

Child Mortality Rate and Rule of Law, 2001‐2008(Developing Countries, excluding Oil Rich Countries)

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

‐2.00 ‐1.50 ‐1.00 ‐0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50Rule of Law, 2001‐2008

Und

er‐5 M

ortality Ra

te (p

er 1,000

), 20

01‐200

8

Weak Governance

Good Governance

r = ‐0.55

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Kaufmann, Kraay and Masstruzi, Worldwide Governance Indicators; Sample: 119 Countries

11

WGI‐Control of Corruption & Maternal Mortality Ratio, 2001‐2008

(Developing Country Sample, Excluding Oil Rich Countries)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700



Materna

l Mortality Ra

tio,

(per 10,00

0 live births)

12

Maternal Mortality and Control of Corruption, 2001‐2008 (Developing Countries, excluding Oil Rich Countries)

0

600

1200

1800

2400

‐2.00 ‐1.50 ‐1.00 ‐0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50Control of Corruption (WGI) 2001‐2008Weak

GovernanceGood

Governance

r = ‐0.49

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Kaufmann, Kraay and Masstruzi, Worldwide Governance Indicators; Sample: 119 Countries

Materna

l Mortality (per 100

K births 2001‐2008)

13

Research on Development and Governance

1. Baldacci, Clements, Gupta and Cui. “Social Spending, Human Capital and Growth in Developing Countries: Implications for Achieving the MDGs.” IMF Working Paper No. 04/217.

2. Filmer & Pritchett. “Child Mortality and Public Spending on Health: How much does money matter?”World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 1864 (November 1999).

3. Kaufmann, D. & A. Kraay, “Growth without Governance,”WorldBank Policy Research Working Papers No. 2928, (November 2002).

4. Leipziger & Fay. “Achieving the Millennium Development Goals: The Role of Infrastructure.”World Bank Policy Research Working Papers No. 3163 (November 2003).

5. Lewis. “Governance and Corruption in Public Health Care Systems.” Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 78(January 2006)

14

6. Michaelow. “Aid Effectiveness Reconsidered: Panel Data Evidence for the Education Sector.” HWWA Discussion Paper No. 264. (2004).

7. Pritchett, L. ‘”Where has all the Education Gone?”World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 1581 (March 1996).

8. Swaroop & Rajkumar. “Public Spending and Outcomes: Does Governance Matter?”World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2840 (May 2002).

9. United Nations, “Governance for the Millennium Development Goals: Core Issues and Good Practices,” 7th Global Forum on Reinventing Government (June 2007).

10. UNDP, “Beyond the Midpoint: Achieving the Millennium Development Goals,” (January 2001).

11. Wagstaff and Claeson, The Millenium Development Goals for Health: Rising to the Challenge. The World Bank (2005)

Research on Development and Governance (Cont’d)

15

Forgotten Dimensions of Governance for attaining the MDGs?

• Political Democratization in many countries a

welcomed development?

• Yet Media Freedoms, Civil Liberties and Gender

Rights (Human Rights of Women, and more

generally) – all lagging

• Inequality Matters: in the polity, in the economy

16

African Leaders Departure From PowerAfrican Leaders Departure From Power

Original Source: Daniel N. Posner and Daniel J. Young, 2007, “The Institutionalization of Political Power in Africa,”Journal of Democracy 18‐3 (July), pp. 128. This slide was provided by S. Radelet.

17

Freedom of the Press, Initial period: 1994, Developing Countries

22.1%

42.6%

35.3%

Source: 2008 Freedom House. Pie Chart measures percentage of countries in the region with free press (rating of 30 or below), partly free (ratings between 30 and 60) and not free (rating above 60). Sample consists of 141 countries

% countries in 1994

Freedom of the Press:

Free

Not Free

Part Free

18

Freedom of the Press, 1994‐2009: Developing Countries

22.1%

42.6%

35.3%


21.3%

39.0%

39.7%


Free

Not Free

Part Free

% countries in 1994

% countries in 2009

19

Press Freedom in Developing Countries, 1994‐2009

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1994 1998 2001 2005 2009

Free Part Free Not FreeFreedom of the Press:

Percen

t of C

ountries

Source: 2008 Freedom House. Y axis measures percentage of countries in the region with free press (rating of 30 or below), partly free (ratings between 30 and 60) and not free (rating above 60). Sample consists of 141 countries

20

Freedom of the Press, 1994‐2009: North and Sub‐Saharan Africa

7.7%

42.3%50.0%


13.5%

36.5%

50.0%


Free

Not Free

Part Free

% countries in 1994

% countries in 2009

21

Governance & $1.25 a day Poverty (Developing Country Sample, Excluding Oil Rich Countries)

0

10

20

30

40

50

'Voice' (WGI) Media Freedoms (FH) Gender Rights (CIRI)

Very Weak Relatively Weak Medium/LowGovernance:

Sources:World Bank, Kaufmann, Kraay, Mastruzzi, Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2008, Freedom House, Freedom of the Press Index, 2009; CIRI Human Rights Data Project (the gender index was created by the authors by averaging Women’s Economic, Social and Political Rights); All variables are expressed as 2001‐2008 averages; Terciles determined by dividing sample of 119 countries in terciles based on WGI‐CC.

% pop

ulation un

der $1

.25

22

Control of Corruption and Growth Performance in Oil‐rich and Developing Countries

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

WGI‐Control of Corruption

Oil‐Rich GDPpc Growth < 2% GDPpc Growth > 2%Classification:

Sources:World Bank & Kaufmann, Kraay, Mastruzzi, Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2008; All variables are expressed as 2001‐2008 averages; WGI variables rescaled by adding 1.5. The two columns on the right hand side are for non‐oil developing countries.

Worse Corruption

Control

Better Corruption

Control

23

General Implications

1. Funding the MDGs: necessary, but insufficient

2. Governance Matters for attaining the MDGs: focus on

governance needed now for success

3. Beyond ‘conventional’ governance (e.g. PSM/PFM):

Anticorruption & Rule of Law; Free Expression;

Transparency; Gender Rights

4. Better integration of private sector, and growth

5. Country differences means different strategies: 2nd

world vs. Fragile States (inequality vs. EITI…)

24

Some Implications for Donors – for debate

1. Reality: Dead Aid or Effective Aid? Neither (troubled aid)

2. Fulfilling Funding Commitments. Ok, but…

3. Transparency: funding, project expenditures

4. Industrialized Country Trade & Macro Policies

5. Governance (& Politics)Matter for impact on MDGs

6. ‘Tough Love’: increased selectivity: also fund other than central

government; how much, etc.

7. What to fund: composition of aid – avoiding neglect of

infrastructure, PPP, agri‐business

8. Better Data, Applied Research: Much that we don’t know

9. Risk‐taking, Innovation & Experimentation

25

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 1991 1993 1994 1995

equiv. US$ per student

Intended grant Actual grant received by primary school (means)

1999

Tracking Education spending in Uganda

Source: Uganda Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys

Power of Data, Transparency and Citizen Oversight

Public info campaign

26

Power of Transparency & Data…‘If it cannot be measured, it cannot be controlled’

Lord Kelvin

‘Not everything that counts, can be counted, and,

not everything that can be counted, counts’

Einstein‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐For more information, informal debate & comment on governance and development issues, visit the blog: www.thekaufmannpost.net

http://www.thekaufmannpost.net/

governance and millennium development goals · imf working paper no. 04/217. 2. filmer&...

Documents