AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Gordon  de  Brouwer  27  November  2012  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Roadmap  for  the  whole  of  Australia  

National State Local Cities

People-­‐to-­‐  people  

Government-­‐to-­‐    government  

Business-­‐to-­‐    business  

Migration Education Tourism Culture Entertainment

Trade Investment Value chains Research

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Broad  consulta<on  themes  

•  Improving  Australia’s  Asia-­‐relevant  capabiliHes  –  literacy  is  more  than  language  learning  

•  People  to  people  links  –  need  for  increased  two  way  collaboraHon  and  

exchange  •  ImplicaHons  of  Asia’s  rise  

–  strategic  compeHHon  /  economic  interdependence  –  economic  trends  –  supply  chains  /  investment  

•  Australia’s  compeHHveness    

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Asia’s  economic  rise  

Note: The bubble area in Chart 1 reflects the size of GDP for Asia’s economies, adjusted for purchasing power parity in 2011 prices (Maddison 2010, IMF 2012c, The Conference Board 2012 and Treasury projections). See glossary for definition of Asia and description of projections.

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  A.1:  Rising  Asian  income  per  person  

Percentage  of  income  per  person  in  North  America  and  Europe  

Notes: GDP is adjusted for purchasing power parity (1990 prices). See glossary for definitions of North America and Europe. Sources: Maddison (2010) and The Conference Board (2012).

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Figure  2.1:  Asia  to  become  the  centre  of  global  economic  activity  

Note: At each point in time, the centre of world economic gravity was calculated by weighting the GDP for each civilisation or country and measuring its relative importance against the known world economic capacity at that point. The centre of economic gravity slowly shifted from East Asia to Europe, then more quickly to the Atlantic and in more recent decades it has shifted quickly back towards Asia. Source: McKinsey & Company (2012).

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Figure  2.2:  Growing  consumer  markets  of  Asia  

Note: ‘Middle class’ is defined as those households with daily expenditures of between US$10 and US$100 per person. The black border circles and orange border circles depict the size of the middle-class population in 2009 and 2030 respectively. Source: Kharas & Gertz (2010).

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  1.2:  Asia’s  demographic  dividend  

Share  of  working-­‐age  population  

Source: UN (2011b).

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  C.1:  Demand  for  food  will  grow  

Global  demand  by  commodity   Global  food  demand  

Source: Linehan et al. (2012).

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  3.9:  Australia’s  agricultural  exports  to  Asia  have  risen  

Value  of  Australian  agricultural  exports  (nominal)    

Source: ABARES (2011).

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  3.7(a):  Australia’s  penetration  into  Asia’s  resource  markets  

                         Imports  of  Australian  iron  ore    

 Per  cent  of  domestic      consumption        Weight    

Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  3.7(b):  Australia’s  penetration  into  Asia’s  resource  markets  

Imports  of  Australian  coking  coal  

 Per  cent  of  domestic      consumption      Weight    

Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  4.7:  Growth  in  international  student  enrolments  in  Australia  

Note: VET stands for vocational education and training. ELICOS stands for English language intensive courses for overseas students. ‘Other’ includes non-award courses and enabling courses. Source: AEI (2012b).

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Figure  9.1:  ScientiKic  links  between  Australia  and  Asian  nations  

2002   2010  

Sources: Thomson Reuters (2011a) and Scopus.

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

The  Asian  century  is  an  Australian  opportunity.  As  the  

global  centre  of  gravity  shi7s  to  our  region,  the  

tyranny  of  distance  is  being  replaced  by  the  prospects  

of  proximity.  Australia  is  located  in  the  right  place  at  

the  right  <me—in  the  Asian  region  in  the  Asian  

century.  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Scope  of  White  Paper  

•  Roadmap  for  the  whole  of  Australia    

•  Comprehensive  review  of  economic  and  strategic  change  to  2025  

•  DomesHc  economic  and  social  policies  

•  Australia’s  external  relaHons  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Five  na<onal  direc<ons  

Productive and resilient economy

Build capability (Asia-literacy)

Business collaboration

Sustainable security

Deeper and broader relationships

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Twenty-­‐five  na<onal  objec<ves  for  2025  

2012

Skills and education

Innovation system

Infrastructure

Communication infrastructure

Tax and transfers

2

3

4

5

Regulatory reform

Environmental sustainability

Macro and financial frameworks

School system

Asia literacy in schools

7

8

9

10

Asian languages

Universities

VET systems

Asia-capable leaders

Adaptable regions

11

12

13

14

15

Social Foundations

Asia-capable businesses

Economic integration with Asia

Agriculture and food

Sustainable security

16

17

18

19

20

2025

Human security

Effective diplomacy

Comprehensive relationships

People-to -people links

Cultural links

21

22

23

24

25

Australia  will  be  a  more  prosperous  and  resilient  naHon,  fully  part  of  the  region  and  open  to  the  world  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Metrics  for  success,  by  2025  

•  Australia’s  GDP  per  person  in  the  world’s  top  10  

•  World  top  5  for  most  efficiently  regulated  

•  World  top  10  for  our  innovaHon  system    

•  10  Australian  universiHes  in  the  world’s  top  100    

•  School  system  in  world’s  top  five  

•  Students  have  conHnuous  access  to  priority  Asian  languages  

•  Studies  of  Asia  core  part  of  Australian  school  curriculum  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Metrics  for  success,  by  2025  

•  Australia’s  trade  with  Asia  will  be  at  least  one-­‐third  of  GDP  

•  Our  diplomaHc  network  with  a  larger  footprint  across  Asia  

•  One-­‐third  of  board  members  of  Australia’s  top  companies  

and  Commonwealth  bodies  deeply  Asia  literate  

•  One-­‐third  of  senior  APS  leadership  deeply  Asia  literate  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  9.1:  DFAT  staff  posted  overseas  

Note: As of June 2012. Multilateral refers to staff accredited to international organisations. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  9.2:  Diplomatic  posts  in  Asia  

Note: Compiled using data as of July 2012 from relevant foreign ministries websites. Asia refers to Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Timor-Leste, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

QuesHons  and  discussion  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Press  headlines  included  

•  Region's  seal  of  approval  for  our  Asian  Century  

•  Clinton  applauds  Gillard's  Asian  Century  white  paper  

•  Asian  Century  overview  ‘lacks  detail’  

•  Li[  the  standard  of  debate  about  China  

AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

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AUSTRALIA  IN  THE  ASIAN  CENTURY  

Chart  1.3:  Average  years  of  formal  schooling  

Population  aged  15  and  above  

Source: Barro & Lee (2010).