gop death list

8/14/2019 GOP Death List

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Competitive House Republican Races DRAFT 10/23/20089:25 AMAK-AL Don Young Ethan Berkowitz 5 -!, $275,887 $383,842 Bush 61% R+14 Young 57'% $692KAZ-01 OPEN (Renzi)--Hay Ann Kirkpatrick 5 -!, $123,870 $306,384 Bush 54% R+2 Renzi 51% $2MIL-11 OPEN (Weller)-Ozinga Debbie Halvorson 5 -!, $175,508 $274,545 Bush 53% R+1 Weller 55% $2.2MNJ-03 OPEN (Saxton)- -Myers John H. Adler 5 -!, $287,832 $1,275,514 Bush 51% D+3 Saxton 59% $1.9MNJ-07 OPEN (Ferguson)--Lance Linda O. Stender 5 -!, $258,032 $602,285 Bush 530(0 R+1 Ferguson 50% $2.2MNY-13 OPEN (Fossella)--Straniere Michael E. McMahon 5 -!, $84,427 $482,984 Bush 55% D+1 Fossella 57% $1.3MNY-25 OPEN (Walsh)--Sweetland DanMaffei 5 -!, $136,671 $598,624 Kerry 50% D+3 Walsh 51% $2.7MVA-11 OPEN (Davis) --Fimian Gerry Connolly 5 -!, $718,630 $646,252 Bush 50% R+1 Davis 55% $1.43MFL-24 Tom Feeney Suzanne Kosmas 5 -!, $736,226 $356,280 Bush 55% R+3 Feeney 57% $1MNY-29 Randy Kuhl Eric Massa 5 -!, $374,722 $401,061 Bush 56% R+5 Kuh151% $2.7MMI-07 Tim Walberg Mark Schauer 5 -!, $691,635 $856,148 Bush 54% R+2 Walberg 51% $1.5MMD-01 OPEN (Gilchrest)--Harris Frank M. Kratovil Jr 4 $749,060 $517,602 Bush 62% R+10 Gilchrest 68%NM-01 OPEN (Wilson)--White Martin Heinrich 4 $678,371 $327,608 Kerry 51% D+2 Wilson 50% $1.6MOH-16 OPEN (Regula)--Schuring John A. Boccieri 4 $127,606 $464,479 Bush 54% R+4 Regula 58% $1.7MCA-04 OPEN (Doolittle)--McClintock Charles Brown 4 -!, $94,214 $456,833 Bush 61% R+11 Doolittle 49% $2MNC-08 Robin Hayes Larry Kissell 4 $1,113,272 $250,134 Bush 54% R+3 Hayes 50% $1.9MCO-04 Marilyn Musgrave BetsyMarkey 4 -!, $798,310 $381,894 Bush 58% R+9 Musgrave 46% $667KMI-09 Joe Knollenberg Gary Peters 4 -!, $1,947,431 $472,108 Bush 58% R+O Knollenberg 54% $1.2.MCT-04 Christopher Shays Jim Himes 3 $1,790,385 $441,228 Kerry 52% D+5 Shays 50% $862KIL-10 Mark Kirk Dan Seals 3 t $1,814,770 $240,479 Kerry 53% D+4 Kirk 53% $1.5MLA-04 ~ P E N (McCrery)--Runoff 11 Runoff 11/4 3 Bush 59% R+7 McCrery 58%MN-03 OPEN (Ramstad)-Paulsen Ashwin Madia 3 -!, $1,100,918 $995,003 Bush 51% R+1 Ramstad 65% $1.5MMO-06 SamGraves Kay Barnes 3 $521,779 $304,284 Bush 57% R+5 Graves 61% $830KNM-02 OPEN (Pearce)- -T inslety Harry Teague 3 -!, $456,116 $147,087 Bush 58% R+6 Pearce 62% $1.2MNV-03 Jon Porter Dina Titus 3 -!, $835,950 $245,832 Bush 50% D+1 Porter 48% $916KNY-26 OPEN (Reynolds )- -Lee Alice Kryzan 3 $327,198 $115,379 Bush 55% R+3 Reynolds 52% $916KOH-15 OPEN (Pryce) --St ive rs Mary Jo Kilroy 3 $570,127 $569,772 Bush 50% R+1 Pryce 51% $1.6MWA-08 Dave Reichert Darcy Burner 3 $1,194,150 $770,988 Kerry 51% 0+2 Reichert 51% $949KMO-09 OPEN (Hulshof)--luetkemeyer Judith W Baker 3 -!, $42,901 $325,958 Bush 59% R+7 Hulshof 61% $941KOH-01 Steve Chabot Steven Leo Oriehaus 3 $828,651 $362,270 Bush 51% R+1 Chabot 53% $1.1MPA-03 Phil English Kathleen Oahlkemper 3 $394,011 $274,850 Bush 53% R+2 English 54% $198KMN-06 Michele Bachmann Elwyn Tinklenberg 3 -!, $1,368,186 $356,721 Bush 57% R+5 Bachmann 49%WY-AL OPEN (Cubin) --Lummis Gary Trauner 3 $201,906 $595,912 Bush 69% R+19 Cubin 48.3%AL-02 OPEN (Ever ett)- -Love BobbyNeal Bright 3 -!, $306,682 $66,189 Bush 67% R+13 Everett 69% $658KCA-50 Brian Bilbray Nicholas Leibham 2 $382,375 $333,997 Bush 55% R+5 Bilbray 54%FL-08 Ric Keller Alan Grayson 2 -!, $982,636 $310,271 Bush 55% R+3 Keller 53%FL-13 Vern Buchanan Christine Jennings 2 t $277,637 $330,094 Bush 56% R+4 Buchanan 50%FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart Raul L. Martinez 2 $1,742,662 $1,118,166 Bush 57% R+6 Oiaz-Balart 59% $1.4MFL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart Joe Garcia 2 $1,132,082 $373,047 Bush 56% R+4 Oiaz-Balart 58% $1.4MIL-06 Peter Roskam Jill Morgenthaler 2 t $1,103,367 $160,800 Bush 53% R+3 Roskam 53%OH-02 Jean Schmidt Victoria Wulsin 2 $346,501 $304,798 Bush 63% R+13 Schmidt 51%PA-06 Jim Gerlach Robert Roggio 2 $701,482 $216,408 Kerry 51% D+2 Gerlach 51%ID-01 Bill Sali Walter Minnick 2 $202,377 $176,844 Bush 69% R+19 Sali 50%VA-02 Thelma Drake Glenn Nye 2 $706,867 $349,349 Bush 58% R+6 Drake 51%AZ-03 John Shadegg Bob Lord 2 -!, $923,312 $149,905 Bush 58% R+6 Shaddegg 58%VA-05 Virgil Goode Tom Perriello 2 $686,050 $321,232 Bush 56% R+6 Goode 59%=TX-10 Michael McCaul Larry Joe Doherty 2 $597,740 $220,675 Bush 62% R+13 McCaul 55%NJ-05 Scott Garrett Dennis Shulman 2 -!, $570, 777 $279,096 Bush 57% R+4 Garrett 55%


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Competitive House Republican Races DRAFT 10/23/20089:25 AMNE-02 le e Terry Jim Esch 2 $514,338 $266,247 Bush 68% R+9 Terry 55%KY-02 OPEN (lewis)--Guthrie David Boswell 2 $680,238 $232,103 Bush 65% R+13 Lewis 56%NV-02 Dean Heller Jil lDerby 2 $405,997 $245,767 Bush 57% R+8 Heller 51%FL-15 OPEN (Weldon)--Posey Steve Blythe 1 $220,700 $9,256 Bush 57% R+4 Weldon 56%IL-18 OPEN (laHood)-Schock Colleen Callahan 1 $466,301 $53,168 Bush 58% R+5 LaHood 67%PA-18 Tim Murphy Stephen Paul Odonnell 1 $1,094,819 $102,942 Bush 54% R+2 Murphy 58%TX-07 John Culberson Michael Peter Skelly 1 $744,056 $1,140,775 Bush 64% R+16 Culberson 59%VA-10 Frank Wolf Judy Feder 1 {, $1,007,139 $647,796 Bush 55% R+5 Wolf 57%OH-07 OPEN (Hobson)--Austria Sharen Neuhardt 1 $279,798 $214,553 Bush 57% R+6 Hobson 61%

Ranking SystemCash on Hand numbers as of September 30, 2008 Trend=Momentum in the Race ({, i s bad for incumbent) 5--seat is most likely gone unless significant turn of events4--leaning Democrat;expect to lose most of theseseats unless there's serious change

3--true toss-up, slight wind could push either way; environment is criticalto theseracesCONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: This document is 2--leaning Republican; if there's a wave, several could be in troubleconfidential. I t i s intended fo r your information only 1--should be ok but if there's a wave, we could see a surpriseand any disclosure, copying or unauthorized

distr ibution is prohibited.


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Competitive House Democrat Races DRAFT 10/23/20089:25 AM

FL-16 Tim Mahoney Tom Rooney 5 {. $190,225 $370,724 Bush 54% R+2 Mahoney 49% $1.5MI AL-05 OPEN (Cramer)--Griffith Wayne Parker 3 t $254,821 $127,253 Bush 60% R+6 Cramer 100% $825KNH-01 Carol Shea-Porter Jeb Bradley 3 {. $165,949 $507,551 Bush 51% R+O Shea-Porter 51% $1.1M

I PA-10 Chris Carney Christopher Hackett 3 {. $330,673 $584,198 Bush 60% R+8 Carney 53% $10KI TX-22 Nick Lampson Peter Graham Olson 3 $468,630 $1,175,912 Bush 64% R+15 Lampson 52% $1.5MI GA-08 Jim Marshall Rick Goddard 2 $480,042 $1,098,012 Bush 53% R+8 Marshall 51%

WI-08 Steve Kagen John Gard 2 $607,712 $668,821 Bush 55% R+4 Kagen 51% $475KAZ-05 Harry Mitchell David Schweikert 2 t $149,946 $547,253 Bush 54% R+4 Mitchell 51% $2MLA-06 Don Cazayoux William Cassidy 2 $476,881 $37,924 Bush 59% R+7 Cazayoux 49% $740KMS-01 Travis Childers Greg Davis 2 $177,618 $302,206 Bush 62% R+10 Childers 54% $1.1MOR-05 OPEN (Hooley)--Schrader Mike Erickson 2 $41,763 $232,912 Bush 50% 0+1 Hooley 56% $1.2MPA-11 Paul Kanjorski Louis J. Barletta 2 {. $251,226 $1,349,801 Kerry 53% 0+5 Kanjorski 72% $282KKS-02 Nancy Bayda Lynn Jenkins 2 {. $553,287 $622,330 Bush 59% R+7 Boyda 51% $1.2MIN-09 Baron Hill Michael E. Sodrel 1 t $263,806 $684,909 Bush 59% R+7 Hill 49% $1.64MAZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords Timothy Bee 1 $255,005 $917,335 Bush 53% R+1 Giffords 54% $740KCA-11 Jerry McNerney Dean Andal 1 $849,727 $1,022,121 Bush 54% R+3 McNerney 53% $570KIL-14 BillFoster Jim Oberweis 1 $324,028 $691,793 Bush 55% R+5 Foster 52% $1MKY-03 John Yarmuth Anne Northup 1 $764,150 $762,795 Kerry 51% 0+2 Yarmuth 51% $659KPA-04 Jason Altmire Melissa Hart 1 $811,946 $1,174,130 Bush 54% R+3 Altmire 52% $554K

5 ~ D f ~ ~ (these ate from pent ..;, . "IeCash on Hand numbers as of September 30, 2008 Trend=Momentum in the Race ({. is bad 5--seat is most likely gone unless significant turn of eventsfo r incumbent) 4--leaning RepublicanCONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: This document is 3--true toss-up, slightwind could push eitherway; environment is critical to these races

confidential. It is in tended f o r you r information only 2--leaning democratand any d isc losure , copy ing or distribution is 1--outside shot of an upset

prohibited.


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Competitive Senate Republican Races DRAFT 10/23/20089:25AM

NMVAAKCONCMSNHMNORKYGAME

OPEN (Domenici)--PearceOPEN (Warner)--Gilmore

Ted StevensOPEN (Allard)--Schaffer

Elizabeth DoleRoger WickerJohn SununuNorm ColemanGordon SmithMitch McConnellSaxbyChamblissSusan Collins

Tom UdallMark WarnerMark BegichMark UdallKay Hagen

Ronnie MusgroveJeanne Shaheen

AI FrankenJeffMerkley

Bruce LunsfordJames MartinTom Allen

55 -1- $5,107,3794 -1- $778,9614 $3,649,3884 -1- $880,2823 $1,664,219 $716,1803 t $3,629,029 $1-763,0143 $2,782,8153 -1- $569A34221 $3,345,075

Bush 50%Bush 54%Bush 61%Bush 52%Bush 56%Bush 60%Kerry 50%Kerry 51%Kerry 52%Bush 60%Bush 58%Kerry 54%Ranking System

Cash on Hand numbers as of September 30, 2008except for numbers in as of June 30, 2008.CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: This document is

confidential. It is intended for your information onlyand any disclosure, copying or distr ibution is

prohibited.

Trend=Momentum in the Race (-1- is bad for incumbent) 5--seat is most likely gone unless significant turn of events4--leaning Democrat;expect to lose most of these seats unless there's serious change3--true toss-up, slight wind could pusheitherway; environment is criticalto these races2--leaning Republican; ifthere's a wave, some could be in trouble1--should be ok bu t if there's a wave, we could see a surprise

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