google - measuring search's impact

Measuring Search’s Impact

Google Confidential and Proprietary

Measuring Search’s Impact

Mark Riseley

Research Manager, Google EMEA

Presented on 3rd November 2011 at

“What works now - Marketing Effectiveness in the Data Age”

1

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Harry Potter


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A search is an expression of interest


Search works as a pull medium

TV Radio PrintOnline

display

PUSH


Search

PULL

9

And offline media drive people to search

Google Confidential and Proprietary 10

Researching Search is Hard


How to measure the value of search

ExperimentsTracking ModellingSurveys


Consumer insights + Attribution of sales

Prove incremental impact of search ads

Influence of search and other drivers on traffic / sales

Consumer insights

How to measure the value of search

ExperimentsTracking ModellingSurveys


Consumer insights + Attribution of sales

Clickstream analysis

Unique phone numbers

Coupons

Check & reserve analytics

Prove incremental impact of search ads

Pre-post tests

Regional split tests

Panel split tests

Cookie split tests

Cross media optimization studies

Influence of search and other drivers on traffic / sales

Econometrics

Consumer insights

Shopper surveys

Quantify the role of the internet in

buying television equipment in store1

Identify the differences between those that

do and don’t use the web in the purchase

process

2

POS Recruited Shopper Survey Approach

Objectives

Understand purchase process of online

researcher3


Methodology

357 offline TV purchasers @ Fnac

recruited via contest entry at point of

purchase (in store)

1

Follow up telephone interview then

conducted 10 days after purchase2

researcher3

Source: FNAC Spain / Google 2010

52%

Quantifying online to store activity


52%

52% of those buying a TV offline in-store at Fnac had

previously used the internet for research

WWW


€526

+33%

Store Basket size higher for online researchers

€701Amount Spent


16

+33%

RESEARCHED ONLINE

DID NOT RESEARCH

ONLINE

Those researching online

spend on average 33% more

than those that do not


ABN Amro Contact Centre

Closing of contract or request

for final contract documents

Product page of ABN Amro

Display of special hotline

telephone number for users

arriving via AdWords

Google AdWords:

Search for car insurance

product, e.g.

“Autoverzekering”

Unique phone number tracking methodology


ABN Amro:

Online closing of contract

Example Results: ABN Amro Netherlands

Car Insurance Contracts through AdWords

Indexed Figures

254%250%

300%

350%

400%

250%

300%

350%

400%

Credit Card Contracts through AdWords

Google Confidential and Proprietary 18Source: ABN Amro 2010

100%

254%

354%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Online Contact Centre Online + Contact Centre

100%

14%

114%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Online Contact Centre Online + Contact Centre

Research Challenge: Finding Matched Test & Control Groups

Test Control

Total audience


Test Control

Geo-targeted experiment methodology

Google Confidential and Proprietary 20Source: Vodafone, APT, Google (2010)

Example results: Vodafone UK

Google Confidential and Proprietary 21Source: Vodafone, APT, Google (2010)

Econometric modelling methodology

4000

5000

6000

Lapto

p S

ale

s (

Unit)

Modeled

Actual


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

20-M

ay-0

7

20-Jun-0

7

20-Jul-07

20-A

ug-

07

20-S

ep-0

7

20-O

ct-0

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20-N

ov-0

7

20-D

ec-0

7

20-Jan

-08

20-F

eb-0

8

20-M

ar-0

8

20-A

pr-08

20-M

ay-0

8

20-Jun-0

8

20-Jul-08

20-A

ug-

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20-S

ep-0

8

20-O

ct-0

8

20-N

ov-0

8

20-D

ec-0

8

20-Jan

-09

20-F

eb-0

9

20-M

ar-0

9

20-A

pr-09

20-M

ay-0

9

20-Jun-0

9

20-Jul-09

20-A

ug-

09

20-S

ep-0

9

20-O

ct-0

9

20-N

ov-0

9

20-D

ec-0

9

20-Jan

-10

20-F

eb-1

0

Lapto

p S

ale

s (

Unit)

Source: Marketshare / PC City (Spain)

Search query data can tease out external effects: category seasonality


Search query data can tease out external effects: product launches


Search query data can tease out external effects: competition


Mapping sales drivers

Holiday

Store Refurbishment

Traditional Media

Online Display

SEM (Paid Search) Email

Online

Search

Online world Offline worldBusiness

Outcome

+ Driver

- Driver

Width of line

indicates size

of driver


Offline Sales

Online

Sales

Rainfall

Sporting Events

Competitive Media

Web traffic

Display

26

Price, Base Sales & Seasonality

Short term Promo days


4,100

4,200

4,300

4,400

4,500

4,600

4,700

4,800

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

We

ek

ly S

ale

s (

Un

its

)

Increase spend in

Econometrics helps optimize media mix

Optimal spend

Historical spend

4,400

4,500

4,600

4,700

4,800

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

We

ek

ly S

ale

s (

Un

its

)

Historical spend

Optimal spend

catalogues Paid search

Increase spend in


- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Weekly Media Spend €

4,300

4,400

4,500

4,600

4,700

4,800

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

We

ek

lyS

ale

s (

Un

its)


27

4,100

4,200

4,300

4,400

4,500

4,600

4,700

4,800

- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

We

ek

ly S

ale

s (

Un

its

)


Historical spend

Optimal spend

Historical spend

Optimal spend

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000


TVPress

Increase spend inDecrease spend in


Search query trends can have predictive power


Bank of England nowcasting with search data


You can do this yourself...


Conclusions

• Researching search is hard because it’s a pull medium, so established methods don’t always apply

• Tracking and surveys can generate useful consumer insights around search and the online to offline effect

• Experiments and econometrics can be used to establish the lift and true ROI of search activity


true ROI of search activity

• Search query trends can be used to represent external factors such as seasonality, competition and product launches in models, and has predictive power

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Questions?


[email protected]

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google - measuring search's impact

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