good wind well at prairie, il. analysis for dominion ltd. usa
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Good Wind Well at Prairie, Il. Analysis for Dominion Ltd. USA. Wind-Well: high wind energy concentration @ the lower atmosphere, Stable in place & time, and economically reachable. Iftach Spector , president - WindWells Ltd. 2 Different Methods to Evaluate Wind Power. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Good Wind Well at Prairie, Il.
Analysis for Dominion Ltd. USA
Iftach Spector, president - WindWells Ltd.
Wind-Well: high wind energy concentration @ the lower atmosphere, Stable in place & time, and economically reachable
Compared to
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WindWells: Physical ModelingWell-measured References - local energy dispersion coefficients ⇒ Library of ReferencesMatching Target / selected Reference/s ⇒ expected energy profileValidating profile by actual measurements
* 4-Dimentional, Physical Model based on Real Data* Enabling Vision ⇒ Local Optimization (@ every site)
The Current: Mathematical Extrapolation Point measurements at limited heights and time period Extrapolations to hub-height in Space and in Time
Note: average Speed ≠ average Flux, which is the main determinant, turbine cuts the extremes (mathematics can’t show this)
* Physically weak method* 2-Dimentional, point oriented ⇒ No Vision* Produces Systematically Uncompetitive Wind Farms
2 Different Methods to Evaluate Wind Power
Scope of WindWell’s Work for Dominion
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Dec. 2011: Dominion suggests we analyze some areas they plan for wind farms: -1. Several lots on the Virginia Appalachians 2. East Virginia (hence: tobacco country) 3. North Carolina generally 4. South of Peoria, Illinois.
Jun. 2012: WindWells analyzed those areas at low spatial resolution (explain follows).
1. Appalachian Mountains No sufficient data to enable us to improve upon Dominion's locally based poles.
2. Eastern Tobacco Wind energy basically low. Performance improves to the East and closer to the beach. Going up improves performance @ hub heights above ~170m.
3. North Carolina Wind energy in NC's is basically low. In East NC wind energy is fair at low level. Meaningful economic improvement only at hub heights of ±200m.
4. Illinois: good wind well
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Prairie Fork Wind Farm
http://www.power-technology.com/projects/prairieforkwindfarmi/Large wind power project that will be built on 25,000 acres in Christian and Montgomery counties in central Illinois, US. 25 miles south-east of SpringfieldThe plant will be owned and operated by Dominion Energy. It will have an installed capacity of 300MW by 150 to 200 wind turbines at 350ft (106m) high.
Illinois
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Building upon wind’s physical patterns (well-tempered)
over ref’s
Lo-Res Analysis for Springfield area
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Lo-Res: Ref.’s by collected/purchased data banks (NASA, NOAA etc.) XY ~10-20Km. Z = 25-50m. t = ~average month & year
Hi-Res: adding local data (met stations, wind poles & validation measurements), + calculating turbine’s faceplate rather just hub heightResults depend on data’s quantity and qualityModel validation: measurements (LIDARS) to confirm/improve the model
Wind Power Determinants @ PF: model results150-unit farm, 2MW turbines 4-25m/sec on 100m. Towers. Cost of turbine: $2.5M
Turbine output Wind Flux Speed
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Annual EnergyMWh/annum
7354
6700
5774
4799
2769
Power_FluxW/m^2796691488363163
Meanm/sec
Heightm.
8.66 250
8.12 200
7.32 150
6.62 100
5.14 50
$ Efficiency per height (m. AGL) @ PF, Calculated with a 3MW turbine. Turbine cost: $3.15M, installation cost by WWL’s cost model
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Wind Energy @ PF: model results 150-unit farm on 100m. towers, 2MW turbines 4-25m/sec. Turbine estimated cost: $2.5M
Same PPA farm 1-Unit performanceRequired invest
M$Required #
Units1MW installed output
MWh/annum1MW installed costs (rounded)
M$Height AGL
m.590 (-52M$) 124 (26 less) 2887 (120%) 2.4 (112%) 150642 142 (8 less) 2643 (110%) 2.25 (104%) 125645 150 2400 (100%) 2.15 100
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SummaryLo-Res Analysis
1-Unit financial performance 100/150m.(not considering US subsidies policy)
+$375M 30yr sales
$50M savings,Or -
Good wind well, at Reasonable Heights1. Optimal Z - height (best output/cost) is at ~ 150m.
(optimal XY has to be analyzed) 2. In this location, every meter up improves results.3. Note: at PF, turbines larger than 2MW improve the
economical results.
4. The 150m. Farm - • Besides reducing land area and public irritation • Saves ~$50+ million (8.5%) on project
investment/• Adds ~$0.375 billion (~23%) to farm’s 30yr sales• Shortens ROI by ~1yr. (~10%) • Reduces lifetime O&M expenses by ~17%
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Wind Wells Advantages For wind farms developers and owners
Punch/DollarIncreased Output- Per turbine / Per acre
Improved Supply Continuity - Better grid compliance
Lower production cost - Lower Price / higher profit
Smaller investment, shorter payback period
New Wind Map - Many new, good locations
Better Environment - Fewer turbines, smaller footprint
Risks…?Regular Technologies - Regular turbines/mast tech.
Fits Any Turbine – No development / replacements
Wind Analysis – Vision & Optimization. Verifiable.
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• In 2012 Dominion decided to concentrate upon LPG
• The plan to develop a 300MW wind farm PF was frozen.
• Dominion decided to continue paying the rent for PF,
• and authorized WWL to try and find a developer/investor for that farm.
WindWells
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An Israeli startup
In the midst of a splendid breakthrough
Into the huge & growing market
of
economically competitive clean power
The only truly viable energy market
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The TeamIftach Spector, PresidentPhD student, energy, Tel AvivUniversityBrig. General (Ret.), the Israeli Air Force VP Elbit Military Systems, President, Insper steel-framed buildings, President, ISYS Computerized Management Systems
Haimi Schneider, VP EngineeringArchitect, Architecture & Town Planning, The Technion, (1980) , Owner, H. Schneider Architects
Reuven Shenkar, Wind DataM.Sc. mechanical engineering DTU (Tech University, Denmark), B.Sc. aeronautical engineering (cum laude) , the Technion, Haifa. Previously Project Engineer Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Denmark.
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Carrying the Wind of change..
WindWells, 7 HaYarkanim st. Ramot-HaShavim 45930 Israelwww.windwells.biz