good governance in statistics the development of a revision policy for the german federal...
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© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
GOOD GOVERNANCE IN STATISTICS
The development of a revision policy for the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) in the European context
Irina Meinke
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Outline
04.06.2014 slide 2
General introduction
National perspective
Destatis general revision policy
European perspective
Survey conducted within the ESS
Conclusion and outlook
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Revisions are generally defined as…
04.06.2014 slide 3
…any change in a value of a statistic released to the public either in printed or electronic form by an official agency. Revisions generally incorporate new, improved information or introduce methodological improvements…
ESS guidelines on revision policy for
Principal European Economic Indicators
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Chances and risks of revisions
04.06.2014 slide 4
Chances: Revisions improve data quality
help to produce statistical data as up-to-date as possible (quality dimension timeliness)
ensure high standards of rigor and introduce methodological improvements (quality dimension accuracy)
Risks: Revisions can cast doubt on past empirical results
can damage the credibility of the statistical data
might confuse users
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Preventing risks: Implementing a general revision policy
04.06.2014 slide 5
A general revision policy…
provides possible reasons for revisions
clarifies the typology of revisions
explains the timing of revisions
stipulates regular revision analysis
demands documentation
defines general revision principles
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Preventing risks: Implementing a general revision policy
04.06.2014 slide 6
A general revision policy…
provides possible reasons for revisions
clarifies the typology of revisions
explains the timing of revisions
stipulates regular revision analysis
demands documentation
defines general revision principles
…is an important aspect of good governance in statistics
fosters transparent revision practices
enables users to get a detailed understanding of revisions
promotes confidence among users
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Preventing risks: Implementing a general revision policy
04.06.2014 slide 7
A general revision policy…
provides possible reasons for revisions
clarifies the typology of revisions
explains the timing of revisions
stipulates regular revision analysis
demands documentation
defines general revision principles
…is an important aspect of good governance in statistics
fosters transparent revision practices
enables users to get a detailed understanding of revisions
promotes confidence among users
CASE STUDY DESTATIS
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
National perspective: Destatis general revision policy
04.06.2014 slide 8
Principle 1: the information gain and the burden on users are in acceptable relationship
Principles 2: revision cycles and releases are coordinated within statistical domains
Principle 3: transparent communication on revisions with the users
Principle 4: revision analyses are performed to ensure the quality of the statistical products and processes
drafted in 2013, to be released in 2014
developed in accordance with the ESS guidelines on revision policy
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
National perspective: Destatis general revision policy
04.06.2014 slide 9
Principle 1: the information gain and the burden on users are in acceptable relationship
Principles 2: revision cycles and releases are coordinated within statistical domains
Principle 3: transparent communication on revisions with the users
Principle 4: revision analyses are performed to ensure the quality of the statistical products and processes
drafted in 2013, to be released in 2014
developed in accordance with the ESS guidelines on revision policy
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
National perspective: Destatis general revision policy
04.06.2014 slide 10
Principle 1: the information gain and the burden on users are in acceptable relationship
Principles 2: revision cycles and releases are coordinated within statistical domains
Principle 3: transparent communication on revisions with the users
Principle 4: revision analyses are performed to ensure the quality of the statistical products and processes
drafted in 2013, to be released in 2014
developed in accordance with the ESS guidelines on revision policy
What are the ESS guidelines on
revision policy?
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
European perspective:ESS guidelines on revision policy
04.06.2014 slide 11
ESS guidelines on revision policy for Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs)
…can be generalized to other statistics
…endorsed by the ESSC in 2012
…provide good guidance for the development of national revision policies.
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
European perspective:Survey conducted within the ESS
04.06.2014 slide 12
Central questions of the survey:
Which ESS members have already developed a general revision policy?
If no revision policy exists, are there preparations to develop such a policy?
Were the ESS guidelines on revision policy used as a reference document?
Which other reference documents or revision policies from other countries were consulted?
Target: ESS Working Group “Quality in Statistics”
Field time: 3rd March – 4th April 2014
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
European perspective:Survey conducted within the ESS
04.06.2014 slide 13
Central questions of the survey:
Which ESS members have already developed a general revision policy?
If no revision policy exists, are there preparations to develop such a policy?
Were the ESS guidelines on revision policy used as a reference document?
Which other reference documents or revision policies from other countries were consulted?
Target: ESS Working Group “Quality in Statistics”
Field time: 3rd March – 4th April 2014
66% response rate
Participation in the survey (absolute figures)
Participation in the survey 21
No participation in the survey
11
ESS member states in total 32
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Situation in Europe: Results from the survey
05.06.2014 slide 14
Existing general revision policies(absolute figures)
Yes, a general revision policy exists 13
No, a general revision policy does not exist
3
A general revision policy is in work 5
Countryname
Link to the revision policyYear of
publication
Denmark no link available 2014
Estonia no link available 2014
Austria Revisionspolitik. Datenrevisionen veröffentlichter statistischer Ergebnisse
2013
Czech Republic
CZSO Data Revision Policy 2013
Greece ELSTAT Revision Policy 2013
Lithuania General Principles behind the performance, analysis and announcement of revisions of statistical indicators
2013
Slovak Republic
Revision policy 2011
SloveniaRevision policy and Revisions of statistical data – methodological explanations
2010
Switzerland
no link available 2010
Latvia Revision policy guidelines 2009
Portugal Revisions policy 2008
Malta Policy on Revisions of Official Statistics 2004
Luxembourg
Correction d’erreurs et révision de chiffres ---
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Situation in Europe: Results from the survey
04.06.2014 slide 15
Austria
Czech Republic
Used baseline documents
ESS guidelines on revision policy
from central banks, IMF, OECD and CMFB
revision policies from
Portugal
United Kingdom
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Conclusion and outlook
04.06.2014 slide 16
European perspective
Considerable work has been done over the past years both at national and European level.
Destatis perspective (might apply to other ESS members)
developing domain specific revision policies
publishing a revision calendar
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MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Irina Meinke
© Federal Statistical Office of Germany
Photo credits
04.06.2014 slide 18
Slide 7: © photodisc / Backgrounds & Objects/Getty Images
Slide 8-10: © Christian Schwier - Fotolia.com
Slide 12-13: © panthermedia.net / Harald Richter
Slide 14-15: © Tanja Bagusat - Fotolia.com