goldman sachs global energy conference january 6, 2016

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Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016 Mark Mey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

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Page 1: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Goldman SachsGlobal Energy Conference

January 6, 2016

Mark Mey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Legal Disclaimer

The statements described in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements contain words such as "possible," "intend," "will," "if," "expect," or other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions, and are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. As a result, actual results could differ materially from those indicated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to, statements involving prospects for the company, expected revenues, capital expenditures, costs and results of operations and contingencies and other factors discussed in the company's most recent Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and in the company's other filings with the SEC, which are available free of charge on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those indicated. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to the company or to persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by reference to these risks and uncertainties. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of the particular statement, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur, or which we become aware of, after the date hereof, except as otherwise may be required by law. Adjusted earnings is a non-GAAP financial measure and the reconciliation to the most comparative GAAP measure is displayed in quantitative schedules on the company’s website at www.deepwater.com.

This presentation is being issued pursuant to and in accordance with Rule 135 under the Securities Act of 1933. Investors must rely on their own evaluation of Transocean Ltd. and its securities, including the merits and risks involved. Nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to the future performance of Transocean Ltd.

This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, and it does not constitute an offering prospectus within the meaning of article 652a or article 1156 of the Swiss Code of Obligations or a listing prospectus within the meaning of the listing rules of the SIX Swiss Exchange. Investors must rely on their own evaluation of Transocean Ltd. and its securities, including the merits and risks involved. Nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to the future performance of Transocean Ltd.

2

Page 3: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Recent Accomplishments

Operational Improvement

Continued improvement across key safety metrics Revenue efficiency at or above 95% for 6 of the last 7 quarters Sustained improvements in cost structure and margins Rationalized headcount and overhead reductions Focus on out-of-service time and optimized maintenance programs Cost effective stacking of UDW floaters

$16.8 billion in contract backlog $5.2 billion total liquidity at September 30, 2015 Retired ~$1.2 billion of debt in the third quarter of 2015 Deferred delivery of 9 newbuild rigs BP/PSC Macondo settlement / insurance proceeds Cancelled dividend

Robust pipeline of value-enhancing high-specification newbuilds Eliminating exposure to non-core rigs Continuing technical leadership

FinancialFlexibility

Fleet Renewal

3

Page 4: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Sustained Operational Out-Performance

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Revenue Efficiency Average Revenue Efficiency 95.2%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

3,000

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA & Costs

Revenue Adj Costs* Adj EBITDA** Adj EBITDA Margin***

Continued progress on margin improvement initiatives partially offset deteriorating market conditions*O&M plus G&A expenses, adjusted for discrete items **Revenue less Adjusted Costs ***Adjusted EBITDA divided by Revenue

(US

$ m

illio

ns)

3Q15 adjusted earnings of $0.87/share on revenues of $1.6 billion

4

Page 5: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Industry Leading Execution

Focus on personal and process safety Reducing non-productive time Better planning, improved reliability, lower spend Deliver more wells in record time

5

Page 6: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Global Market Leader

Ultra-Deepwater

Harsh Env.

Deepwater

Midwater

Jackup

27

7

12

10

Transocean fleet composition as of 10/26/15 Fleet Status Report

6

6

Page 7: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

0.1 0.3 0.2 0.10.1

0.5

0.7

0.50.1

0.10.2

2.7

2.1

1.71.4

6.0

6.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-27

Industry Leading Contract Backlog

*Contracted operating dayrate multiplied by the contract duration for future periods as of 12/6/15

Backlog recognized through November 30, 2015

$0.4

$6.7

$4.2

$2.8

$1.9$1.5

$6.0

(US$

billi

ons)

7

Total backlog - $16.8 billion*

Page 8: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Oil prices at post-2009 lows and rig market is oversupplied – rig fleet transformation in progress

Challenging Market

Ultra-Deepwater

Global fleet utilization 84%*

Uncontracted newbuild deliveries delayed or cancelled

Deepwater

Global fleet utilization 70%*

Weakening activity with limited prospects

Midwater

Global fleet utilization 75%*

Acceleration of rig retirements

High-Spec Jackups

Global fleet utilization 76%*

Dayrates declining as oversupply intensifies

*Global marketed utilization data from IHS-Petrodata as of 1/04/16 8

Page 9: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Future Imbalance From Depressed Oil Prices

$50 oil: supply exceeded demand in 2015, but supply destruction in out-years is unsustainable

$70 oil: continued reinvestment keeps market from balancing until 2016-2017, but 2017+ undersupplied

$90 oil: longer-term price required to balance incremental supply/demand

Approximately 30% of the potential 8mmb/d 2018 deficit comes from deepwater sources

Please note, this is not intended to be a commodity price forecast, merely a sensitivity analysis.

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

12 13 14 15E 16E 17E 18E

Oil supply @ $50/bbl Oil supply @ $70/bblOil supply @ $90/bbl Total oil demand

-0.2 -0.7-1.5

-0.7-1.8

-2.5

-0.5-1.5

-2.6

-3.6

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

15E 16E 17E 18E

Other OnshoreShelfDeepwaterNAm Shale

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

13 14 15E 16E 17E 18E

incremental demand incremental supply @ $70/bblincremental supply @ $90/bbl incremental supply @ $50/bbl

mmb/dmmb/d

Source: Rystad Energy, EIA, IEA, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

mmb/d

9

Page 10: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

9.1

6.6

2.53.00.46.8

Future Demand Requires Offshore Development

Offshore

RoW Onshore

RoW Onshore

Source: Rystad Energy, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

10

NAm Onshore

Offshore

NAm Onshore

Crude & Condensate Production [mmb/d] Incremental production growth through 2020 requires significant investment, both offshore and onshore

New Projects(~10 mmb/d)

Infill Drilling(~18 mmb/d)

To prevent even more significant declines in base production, substantial spending on infill drilling is required in mature fields. Infill drilling activity has nevertheless taken a recent hit from the oil price decline.

Page 11: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

1 1 21 1 1 1

7

1 2 1 1 1

10

13

0

8

15

23

30

Other ESV ATW PGN NE DO RIG

44 Scrapped Floaters

UDW DW MW

Active Supply Market Factors1.Delayed newbuild

deliveries2.Scrapping of lower

specification units3.Bankruptcies of weaker

contractors4.Temporary stacking of

older high specification units (modified cold stacked rigs)

1.Contract terminations increase available supply

2.Operators with excess capacity seeking farmout opportunities

Red

uce

Sup

ply:

(+) f

or R

IGIn

crea

se S

uppl

y: (-

) for

RIG

Rig Attrition Key to Rebalance the Market

Ensco, 7

Diamond, 8

Others, 8

34 Cold Stacked Floaters

Transocean, 11

Contract Status & Expected Demand 2011-2018All Floaters - Worldwide

11

Page 12: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

11 UDW Drillships 3 UDW Semisubmersibles 4 HS Jackups

7 UDW Drillships 5 HS Jackups

18 Newbuilds Added 2009-2014

Investing in the Fleet – High Specification Assets

~$12B Investment

12 Newbuilds in Pipeline 2016-2020

~$7B Investment 12

Page 13: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Projected fleet includes: 11 UDW dual BOP rigs 8 UDW moored & DP capable rigs 5 UDW 20k psi capable rigs

Average fleet age: 2020 ~16 years* 2015 ~19 years 2009 ~24 years

15% 4%

32%8%

41%

% of Fleet

Ultra-Deepwater FloatersHarsh Environment FloatersDeepwater & Midwater FloatersHigh-Specification JackupsStandard Jackups

44%

11%

29%

16%

% of Fleet

55%

11%

10%

24%

% of Fleet

2020 Projected Fleet*2020 Projected Fleet*Current FleetCurrent Fleet

Asset Profile

2009 Fleet2009 Fleet

* Estimate November 2015 13

Page 14: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Strong Financial Position

$16.8 billion backlog provides solid cash-generation foundation $5.2 billion total liquidity at September 30, 2015 $2.2 billion cash $3.0 billion undrawn revolving credit facility Re-phasing/reduction of capital spending Continuous improvement in operating performance Focus on cost management, including Reduced UDW stacking costs Streamlined organizational structure

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Page 15: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Substantial Liquidity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Cash at 9/30/15 Revolving CreditFacility

Operations Cash Flow CapEx through 2017 Debt Due through2017

Liquidity at 12/31/17

(US$

billi

ons)

$2.2B

Projected liquidity at December 31, 2017

* Estimate

$3.0B

$3.1-$4.1B* ~$2.6B*

$1.7B

$4.0-$5.0B*

15

Page 16: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

The Path Forward

Transocean will: Deliver the safest, most efficient drilling services Continue to focus on producing strong operating results through:

o Strengthening customer relationshipso Delivering best-in-class uptime and revenue efficiencyo Right-sizing the organization consistent with fleet sizeo Streamlining every element of the business Actively manage capital structure and liquidity High grade and reposition the worldwide fleet for the industry recovery

Transocean will build upon its position as the industry’s leading offshore driller

16

Page 17: Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference January 6, 2016

Goldman SachsGlobal Energy Conference

January 6, 2016

Mark Mey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer