golden age of hydrogen? · 2021. 1. 15. · hydrogen –a common element of our energy future ? •...

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.

Golden Age of Hydrogen?

2021-1-13 Hydrogen Business For Climate Forum, France

Nobuo TANAKA

Former Executive Director, International Energy Agency (IEA) 2007-11

Chairman, Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF)


Global Energy Review 2020

Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that COVID19 made for a historic “Black April” for the oil markets. Renewable Energy is a sole WINNER!

April’s oil demand declined by 29 million barrels per day; almost 30 % of global demand collapsed due to the lockdowns.

2


123 countries and 1 region announced Carbon Neutral by 2050

Their current CO2 emission shares 23%. It will grow to 38% when the Biden’s

US joins. China announced Carbon Neutral by 2060 ( current share 29%)

3


Solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in most countries in part due to low cost financing and

is set to triple before 2030 under current and proposed policies, with the potential to grow much faster

0

4 000

8 000

TW

h

Solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in most countries in part due to low cost financing and

is set to triple before 2030 under current and proposed policies

Solar PV is becoming the ‘new king’ of electricity

Change in global electricity generation

-8 000

-4 000

Coal Gas Other low

carbon

Wind Solar PV

2000-2019

SDS

STEPS

2019-2040

Coal Gas Other low

carbon

Wind Solar PV

-8 000

-4 000

0

4 000

8 000

Coal Gas Other low

carbon

Wind Solar PV

TW

h

2000-2019

STEPS

SDS

2019-2040

4


The plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, reducing GHG

emissions by 4.5 billion tonnes and putting them on a path towards achieving long-

term climate goals, including the Paris Agreement. ICEF2020 recognizes the

importance of GREEN STIMULUS for Beyond Zero Emission.

Energy-sector GHG emissions

Without a sustainable recovery

With a sustainable recovery

Gt CO2-eq

30

32

34

36

38

40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2023

Energy Transformation is accelerated by COVID-19. IEA proposes

Sustainable Recovery Plan for structurally cleaner energy system.

5


10

20

30

40

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Gt CO2

The world is still far from putting emissions into decisive decline

Global emissions are set to bounce back more slowly than after the financial crisis of 2008-2009,

but the world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery

China 2060 net-zero statement

Net-zero in 2050

STEPS

Full implementation of 2050 net-zero pledges (e.g. EU, UK, New Zealand and others)

SDS

6


No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals

Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source

A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach,

and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation

10

20

30

40

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gt CO2

Other renewables end-uses

Nuclear

Sustainable Development Scenario

Biofuels transport

Air conditioners

Cars & trucksHeavy industry

WindSolar PV

Hydro

Electric vehiclesFuel switch incl. hydrogen

Buildings

CCUS power

Current Trends

Efficiency

Renewables

Fuel switch, CCUSand other

Aviation and shipping

Power

CCUS industry

Other renewables power

Light industry

Stated Policies ScenarioIndustrial electric motors

Behavioural changeResource efficiency

WEO 2019

7


Ambitious actions over the next decade are critical

Governments recovery plans will shape energy infrastructure and industries for decades to come: these represent a

historic opportunity to accelerate clean energy transitions.

Energy and industrial process CO2 emissions and reduction levers in the scenarios

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2020e 2025 2030

Gt CO2

Power

End-uses

Behaviour changes

STEPS

NZE2050

SDS

8


Behaviour changes could have large impacts

Behaviour changes can quickly reduce emissions from existing end-use assets; around 60% of measures could be

supported or influenced by government policies

Impact of behaviour changes on CO2 emissions in the NZE2050

-2 000

-1 500

-1 000

- 500

2021 2025 2030

Mt CO2

Reduce domestic heating by 3°CReduce domestic cooling by 3°C

Cycle/walk short trips

Line-dryingReduce laundry temperature

Reduce regional flights

Reduce driving speed by 7 km/hEco-drivingRide-sharing

Reduce mobile air conditioningWorking from home

Road transport

Aviation

Residential

Reduce business flights

Cut ¾ long-haul leisure flights9


A rapid uptake of clean end-use technologies will also be required

Emissions need to be tackled across industry, buildings and transport. This will rely on a wide range of new

technologies including: low-carbon fuels, hydrogen, CCUS, building retrofits, efficiency, electric cars...

Share of car and truck sales that are electric and fuel-cell vehicles

20%

40%

60%

2010 2020e 2030

STEPS SDS NZE2050

2010 2020e 2030

Passenger cars Medium and heavy-duty trucks

10


11

Carbon Price Assumptions in scenarios and regions WEO 2020


GAFA＋Microsoft move faster to Carbon Neutrality

Company Announcement Target year

Google Carbon free 2030

Amazon Renewable 100%

Net zero carbon

2025

2040

Facebook Net zero emission for entire value chain 2030

Apple Net Zero Carbon all supply chain 2030

Microsoft Carbon negative all supply chain

Historical Carbon Neutral

2030

2050

12


SONY warns

it could move

factories over

Japanese

energy policy

13


14


Together with our partners, we are implementing the Mercedes-Benz Ambition 2039. Almost half of our approximately 2000 suppliers have signed an 'Ambition Letter of Intent' and are committed to supplying us with only CO2 neutral parts in the future. These companies account for more than half of the annual purchasing volume of Mercedes-Benz AG

15


Demand side driven energy transformation: RE100 Corporations

16

Finance: Swiss Re Group, alstria, Amalgamated Bank, Aviva, AXA, Bank of America, Bankia, BBVA, British Land, CaixaBank, Canary Wharf Group, Capital One,

Citi, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Danske Bank, DBS Bank Ltd, DNB, Equinix, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fuyo General Lease Co., Ltd., Goldman Sachs, Helvetia,

HSBC, ING Group, Iron Mountain Incorporated, Johnan Shinkin Bank JPMorgan Chase & Co., Jupiter Asset Management, Land Securities, Mace, Morgan

Stanley, Nordea, Prudential plc, RBS group, Schroders, TD Bank, UBS, Voya Financial, Wells Fargo, Asset Management One, Nomura Research Inst, Daiichi Life,

Durable Goods and Services :IKEA Group, AEON Co., Ltd, BMW, Burberry, Coop Sapporo, Crown Estate, Daiwa House Group, Decathlon, Dentsu Aegis

Network, Etsy, FIA Formula E, General Motors, Gürmen Group, H&M, Interface, Kingspan, LEGO Group, Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India, Marks & Spencer,

Marui Group, Nike, Inc., Pearson, PVH, Sekisui House, Signify, Sky, Starbucks, Tata Motors Limited, Vail Resorts, VF Corporation, Watami Co., Ltd., YOOX Group,

Takashimaya, Asahikasei Homes,

Non-Durables and Services : Anheuser-Busch InBev, Califia Farms, Carlsberg Group, Clif Bar & Company, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Colruyt Group, Danone,

Diageo, Estée Lauder Companies, Grupo Bimbo, Hatsun Agro Products Ltd, International Flavors and Fragrances Inc., Kellogg, L'OCCITANE Group, Mars,

Incorporated, Nestle, Organic Valley, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser (RB), TCI Co., Ltd, Tesco, TRIDL, Unilever, Walmart, Onoyakuhin

Technology: Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, eBay, Facebook, Fujitsu, Fujifilm Holdings Corp ,Google, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, Inc., Infosys, Lyft, Microsoft,

Rackspace, RICOH Company, Ltd., Salesforce, SAP, Sony Corporation , Visa, VMWare, WeWork, Workday, Konica-Minolta, Panasonic, Advantest,

NipponUnisys, Fujikura,

Other Services; ASKUL Corporation, Bloomberg, BROAD Group, ENVIPRO HOLDINGS Inc., Gatwick Airport Limited, Heathrow Airport, IHS Markit, La Poste,

McKinsey & Company, PwC, RELX Group, SAVE S.p.A Group, Schneider Electric, SGS, Steelcase, Swiss Post, Vaisala, Tokyu Land Corp, Daito Trust Construction

Co Ltd, Toda corp, SumitomoRingyo, Mitsui Fudosan, Mitsubishi Jisho, AndoHazama, Rakuten, Lixil, Tokyu Group,

Material: AkzoNobel, Corbion, Dalmia Cement, Elion Resources Group, Elopak, Givaudan, Royal DSM, Tetra Pak , Asahikasei, Ajinomoto

Telecom Services: BT Group, KPN, Proximus, Telefonica S.A., T-Mobile US, Inc., Vodafone Group

Health care: AstraZeneca, Biogen, Johnson & Johnson, Novo Nordisk, Royal Philips

Energy: Vestas

Others; etc etc

260 RE100 companies (42 Japanese) have made a commitment to go '100% renewable'.


TCFD; Financial Driver for Energy Transformation

• More than 1433organizations are supporting the TCFD as of August 2020.

• 306 Japanese organizations support TCFD.

• They include ANA, ASKUL, Asset Management One, DaiNippon Printing, Dai-ichi Life H, Daiwa House, Daiwa Securities,DENSO, DBJ, FSA, Fujifilm, Fujitsu, GPIF, Hitachi, Japan Post, JXG, Kao, Keidanren, Kirin H, Komatsu, Konica Minolta, Lion, LIXIL, MARUI G, METI, Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance, MOE, Mitsubishi Corp, Mitsubishi Chemical, MHI, MUFJ, Mitsui & Co., Mizuho Fin G, Mitsui Chemical, NEC, Nikko Asset M, Nikon, Nomura Asset M, Nippon Life Ins, Nissay Asset M, Nomura H, NYK Line, OMRON, Resona H, Ricoh, Sekisui House, Shin-Etsu Chem, Shiseido, Sojitz Corp, Sompo H, Sophia Univ, Sumitomo Corp, SMFG, Sumitomo Chem, Teijin, Tokio Marine, TEPCO, Tohoku Electric Power, Toshiba, TOTO, Toyota Motor, Yokokawa Elec, Chiyoda Engineering, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation,,,,

The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) will develop voluntary, consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures for use by companies in providing information to investors, lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders.

17


Our existing energy infrastructure is too big to ignore

Reaching net-zero emissions requires tackling emissions from long-lived assets in power generation and heavy-

industries. In emerging Asia, 80% of existing coal power capacity was built in the past 20 years.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2019 2030 2040 2050

Coal Power

Other Power

CarsOther Industry

ChemicalsCement

Steel

Trucks

Buildings

Rail

AviationShipping

2/3 wheelers

Buses

GtC

O2

/yr

Transport

Buildings

Other

Power

Industry

Rest of the world

Emerging Asia

18


Hydrogen – A common element of our energy future ?

• Momentum currently behind hydrogen is unprecedented, with more and more policies, projects and plans by governments & companies in all parts of the world

• Hydrogen can help overcome many difficult energy challenges

➢ Integrate more renewables, including by enhancing storage options &

tapping their full potential (Green H2)

➢ Help Oil, Coal and Gas exporters by providing clean alternatives with

CCS (Blue H2)

➢ Decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors – steel, chemicals, trucks, ships &

planes

➢ Enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel mix & providing

flexibility to balance grids

• But there are challenges: costs need to fall; infrastructure needs to be developed; cleaner hydrogen is needed; and regulatory barriers persist 19


Four key opportunities for scaling up hydrogen to 2030

20


TOYOTA as Leader of

Hydrogen since 2014

133 HRStation in operation: JHyM

targets total 180 HRS by 2021

21

IEA 2020. All rights reserved. METI 2017

22

Japan’s Basic

Hydrogen

Strategy

2017

Aim at Supply of

300,000 tons by

2030


23

Europe and China have become the leaders of Hydrogen Economy


24


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2019 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Refining

Transport

Other

Transport

Synfuel production

Ammonia production

Refining

Industry

Fossil without CCUS

Fossil with CCUS

Other Refining

Electrolysers

Hydrogen – a key pillar for reaching energy & climate goals

Global hydrogen production and use grows sevenfold by 2070 compared to today in the Sustainable Development

Scenario, with demand growth almost completely met by low-carbon hydrogen.

Global hydrogen production and use by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019-2070M

tH2/y

r

25


Opportunities to reduce clean hydrogen production costs

Low-carbon hydrogen production through electrolysis is not currently competitive with that based on fossil fuels, but

could become competitive in the long term as large-scale deployment brings down costs.

Hydrogen production costs by technology in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2019 and 2050

0

2

4

6

8

2019 2019 2050

SMR with CCS Electrolysis

US

D/k

gH₂

26


Japan’s Energy Path to 2050 Carbon Neutrality

Annual CO2 Emission/ Mt CO2-e

2018

———

1060 Mt

2030

————

930 Mt (-25%)

2050

——————

Net 0 Mt (-100%)

This energy mix is

a reference for

further discussion

with different

scenarios.

No

n P

ow

er

Secto

rP

ow

er

Carbon

Removal

Residential110

Residential 90

Industry 300Industry 330

Transportation

200Transportation

150

450 Mt 360 Mt

ElectrificationElectricity Demand

increases by 30-50%

Hydrogen, Methanation, Synfuels,

Biomass

Fossil fuels CCUS, C-Reuse

Afforestation, DACCS

Carbon Free ElectricityRenewables : 50-60%

Nuclear+Thermal with CCUS/

CarbonRecycle: 30-40%

Hydrogen/Ammonia: 10%

METI 2020-12-25

27


Japan’s Green Growth Strategy for 2050

• Renewables, in general: Triple their share in the power generation mix to 50% to 60% by 2050

• Offshore wind power: Deploy 10GW by 2030 and 30-45 GW of capacity by 2040 from negligible levels today

• Transportation: Electrify the sector as much as possible; phase out sales of new gasoline-only cars by 2035, including

the “minicars”.

• Batteries: Target a 50% reduction in cost of batteries to ¥10,000 or less per kWh by 2030 to help bring down cost of

electric vehicles

• Thermal power plants : “Dilute” fossil fuels in the fuel mix of thermal power plants with at least 20% ammonia

• Hydrogen: Ramp up consumption across all industries to around 3million tons by 2030 and 20 million tons by 2050;

have hydrogen and ammonia account for 10% of the electricity mix

• Nuclear: Develop new types of reactors, SMRs, HTGR

• Shipping and Aviation: Replace shipping fuel with hydrogen or another non-emitting alternative by 2050; Work

towards electrification of airplanes or other means to make them emissions-free

• Agriculture: Cut emissions to zero

• Construction: New buildings and homes to be net-zero emissions by 2030

• Electricity Demand: Moving large parts of the economy to electric power will boost domestic electricity demand

between 30% and 50% by 2050

• Carbon Pricing/ Tax: A regulatory system for carbon emissions and a carbon tax is “needed” to push businesses to

make progress on net-zero targets


Hydrogen related Strategy

• Ammonia as Fuel : 20% co-firing with Coal (20 million tons needed when all coal power plants introduce) ,

controlling NOX tech, aiming at ASEAN users, NEXI & JBIC finance, building global supply chain (100Mton in

2050)

• Hydrogen Gas Turbine as Carbon free power; priority procurement for H2 as well as RE and Nuclear

• FC Trucks: Support deployment, H2 stations, deregulation

• Direct Reduction Ironmaking (DRI); RD Support, Top Runner approach, Border adjustment measures

• H2 Transportation: Liquid Hydrogen, MCH, Ammonia; Support Scaling up and commercialization

• Electrolyzer: RD support, use of cheap RE

• High Temperature Gas Reactor for H2：RD support

• Synfuel from Clean H2 for Mobility

• Carbon Free Vessels; H2FC, H2 / Ammonia fuel engine,

• Carbon Neutral Port/ H2FC for construction equipments

• H2 Airplane: H2FC/ H2 synfuel/ Carbon fiber tank/ international standardization

• Photocatalyst / H2 for plastic

• ZEH/ZEB with FCV/EV, Enhance RE flexibility by H2

29


Canada

AustraliaWestern, South, Queensland

Renewables (Green)

Natural Gas (Blue)

Oman

Saudi Arabia

USA

Japan and Asia

Clean Hydrogen Trading by Ammonia, Organic Hydrate(MCH) and

Liquid Hydrogen will replace LNG.

30


Japan- Australia

Collaboration on

Clean H2

31


Chiyoda’s Spera Hydrogen

• Chiyoda established a complete system which enables economic H2 storage and transportation.

• MCH, an H2 carrier, stays in a liquid state under ambient conditions anywhere.

• H2 Supply of a 0.1-0.2mmtpa LNG equivalent scale (M.E. to Japan) could be feasible.

DHGHGN

Feedstock

H2 H2

HGN D

H

GStorageStorage

Electrolysis

Renewable Energy

PV Wind

CSP

Sources Users

CCSHydrocarbon

By-Product

Reforming

Gasification

EOR

CO2

Coal

Gas

Oil Steel Mills

CO2 Recycle(Reverse Shift)

HGN: hydrogenation, DHG:

dehydrogenation

TOL: toluene, MCH:

Methylcyclohexane

+3H２

CH３CH３

TOL MCH

Power Gen.

City Gas

Mobility

Energy

MCH

TOLFuture

Current

Petro Refining

Chemicals

32

32


JERA announced Carbon Neutral target

for 2050 by Ammonia and Hydrogen

33


Hydrogen for the

Recovery of

FUKUSHIMA

34


35

The Stone

Age didn’t

end

because we

ran out of

stones.

Peak oil is closer than you think: BP


36

Saudi Aramco considers Hydrogen as a solution


37


Climate Governance

Climate Performance

Climate Innovation

Gender Equality

Critical mass of

>30% women on

Board is critical.

Critical mass of

>30% women on

Board (WOB) makes difference.

Critical mass of

>30% women on

Board is critical.>30% WOB threshold is growing 2% => 16% in 10 years.

International initiatives such as TCFD is key driver for better climate governance, and early adopters show better gender diversity.

Gender diversity positively correlates to better climate governance and innovation.

Critical mass of

>30% women on

Board (WOB) makes difference.>30% WOB threshold is growing 2% => 16% in 10 years.

Legislation and reporting requirementsaccelerate disclosure.

Global

Trends

Key Findings >30%

More women in management reasonably correlates to % women in workforce

Study by the Sasakawa Peace

Foundation and BNEF

38

Climate Change is NOT Gender Neutral!

golden age of hydrogen? · 2021. 1. 15. · hydrogen –a common element of our energy future ? •...

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