gold weekend update 18 july 2011

8/6/2019 Gold Weekend Update 18 July 2011

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GOLD WEEKEND UPDATE 18 JULY 2011

First , let 's take a look at a few Fibonacci t ime measurements in Gold.

Recent ly I produced a series of weekly chart s t hat suggested t hat a

significant turn in Gold may be seen in the week of August 14th

Now with some recent daily action to measure off of I think I cannarrow t his range down t o a daily t ime period


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This measure suggest s that a turn may be possible near August

18t h (+/ - 1 day), which is inside the weekly measure of Aug. 14t h

to Aug 20th. Since this measure has 5 anchor points the relative

degree of success is fairly high. Fibo t ime measurements do not

show direction, However, if the trend going into a Fibo time

sequence is down for example, t he turn is most likely t o t he upside.

Fibo Time measurements are not 100% accurate, just like every

other bit of TA. However they do increase the probabiliies for

success.


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The trend in Gold is most certainly up into a Full Moon (July 15th) and a Fibo turn

on July 18th

Both cycles suggest a top is either in place or soon will be. Further upside is likely

to run into resistance at 1600, 1608ish and 1620ish. I would not be surprised to see

this week open up with Asia taking PoG up a 1/2% incursion above 1600 (and

1.27% fibo ex-ret.)as a tease to (1608ish). Only to have the London and US market

sell it down again, We'll see. The next line of resistance above 1608 is 1616 to

1620. A move above 1620 solidifies some EW counts, basically deciding betweena B wave and a new Wave one impulse.


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If Gold does respect this Full Moon and Fibo time measurement, I would

expect a move down to test the 10 EMA and possibly 20 DMA:


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Bullish support for any ret race could be found at t he 10 EMA and 20

DMA. daily closes especially need to st ay above t he 10 EMA. Also

t he 1% t o 3% pull-back levels can of t en be reached while a t rend is

impulsing. If a top is in place for example at 1595, a 1% dip = 1579,

3% = 1547. The current fibo retrace levels (61.8% to 23.6% are at

1522 t o 1566 respect ively. These measures would obviously move

up some if t he t rend cont inues higher early t his week

The other measure to pay close attention to is the previous week's

open

1542 was t he previous week's open. This level becomes key f or t his

week. If a OKR does occur, t his signal is bearish. To st ay bullish on

t his weekly chart PoG needs t o close t his week above 1542. But as

t he previous t op at 1575 showed, if t he following week doesn't

follow t hrough to t he downside, t he signal is of t en a dud.

Wit h all t his dat a, we can est imat e a reasonable support zone for

any dip to be inside the 1522 to 1579 zone. With firmer support

bet ween 1547 and 15 58 . An impulse down to t he 61 .8% fibo

ret race level of 15 22 or less this week could put t his bull t rend in

jeopardy.


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Since 2009 PoG has not had a daily close below t his import ant Long

Term support by as much as a couple dollars. A weekly close below

t his level would most cert ainly be bearish. No doubt , many

prot ect ive stops for medium t erm and long t erm paper invest ment s

are below this 150 day moving average.

A brief report on Silver - As my previous report suggest ed, 36.85 iskey EW support for cont inued impulsing t o t he upside. Crit ical

Support is at 33.37. Please understand clearly, if 33.37 is taken out

for any reason, very st rong and deep downside possibilit ies open up.

The great est ext reme t hat I can see being reached in a relat ive short

period of time is $22.00. Just like the 150DMA for Gold, the 33.37

level is likely t o be just as crucial

DISCLAIMER:CHARTS AND OPNION ONLY FOR EDUCATION AND NOT FOR TRADING

gold weekend update 18 july 2011

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