gold the yellow metal nmims 2010
TRANSCRIPT
1
Aurum
The future simply awes…
January 2010
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Gold needs no introduction!
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Gold : Key Characteristics
Basis of monetary standards maintained by IMF
Malleable and ductile metal
Good conductor of heat and electricity and not impacted by corrosion
Melting point is at 1064.18 °C, Boiling Point at 2856 °C
Industrial applications like : dentistry and electronics
Weight measured in troy ounce or grams.
4
Purity of Gold
Carat is used for measurement of purity of gold. (At times written as “karat”)
whereX is the carat rating of the material, Mg is the mass of pure gold or platinum in the material, and Mm is the total mass of the material.
Caratage Fineness24 99922 91621 87510 4179 375
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Gold Prices - An Enigma
6
Gold Price – too may determinants …
Monetary Policy
Geo-Political Tensions
Mine Supply Demand in India/ China
Crude oil/ Energyprices
US Economic data
Currency markets
Gold Prices
The most important price determinant currently is Hedge Fund/ ETF investment in bullion
7
Its different. Its a monetary asset.
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Central Banks’ Treasure
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007
% o
f res
erve
s
United States Germany France Italy Switzerland ECB India
Gold Reserves (USD million)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
United
State
sGerm
any
IMF
France
Italy
Switzerl
and Japan
Netherl
ands
ECB
China
Taiwan
Spain
Russia
Portug
al
India
Venezu
ela
United
Kingdo
mAust
ria
Q1 2000 Q1 2007
USA is major holder of gold in its national coffers, in value as well as tonnage terms.
CBGA forms a formidable force in price control of the yellow metal.
The above ground stocks as per GFMS estimates are about 155,500 tonnes.
Source: GFMS, WGC
9
By the tonne ….
Gold Reserves (Tonnes)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
United Stat
esGerm
any IMF
France Italy
Switzerl
and
Japan
Netherl
ands
ECB
China
Taiwan
Spain
Russia
Portugal Ind
iaVene
zuela
Unit
ed King
dom
Austria
Q1 2000 Q1 2007
In tonnage terms, US reserves stand largely unchanged, but due to higher prices of gold they have risen to 76% from 54% of total reserves held by the country.
20% or about 30,280 tonnes are world reserves (including IMF)
IMF holds about 3,218 tonnes.
Source: GFMS, WGC
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Efficient Frontier Theory
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Efficient Frontier Theory
Portfolio Series of S&P 500 Total Return Index and Toronto Gold & Precious Minerals Total Return Index for the Holding
Period of 1971 - 2003, Annual Rebalancing
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
0% 5% 10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Volatility (Standard Deviation)
Aver
age
Annu
al R
etur
n
100% TSE Gold & Precious Minerals Index
Peaks at 35% TSE Gold & Precious Minerals Index
85% S&P 500 / 15% TSE Gold Essentially the same risk level but significantly higher return average annual return.
100% S&P 500
Commodities – An asset class by itself!!
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Nifty Volatility vs Bullion volatility
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2-Jan-97 2-Jan-98 2-Jan-99 2-Jan-00 2-Jan-01 2-Jan-02 2-Jan-03
silver nifty gold
NiftySilver
Gold
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Global Bullion Market Structure
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Global Bullion Market - LBMA
London Bullion Market - Incorporated in 1987
FSA www.fsa.gov.uk under Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
OTC Market – Clearing through LBMA Clearing house
Standard dealing amounts between market makers
Gold 500 Ounce (15.5 kg)
Silver 100,000 Ounce (3215 kg)
Good delivery – London
Gold Bar Size - 400 Ounce (12.5 kg) , 995 fine
Silver Bar Size – 1000 Ounce (30 kg), 999 fine
15
Global Bullion Market – Comex
Symbol GC
Expiry On every 5th of the alternate month (Oct, Dec, Feb, April, June, Aug)
Trading Unit 100 troy ounces
Quotation/ Base Value 1 troy ounce
Tick Size 10 cents per troy ounce
Initial Margin $3,375 per contract
Delivery Centers A designated depository licensed by the exchange.
Quality Specification 995 purity ; It should be serially numbered Gold bars supplied byLBMA approved suppliers or other suppliers to be submitted along with supplier’s quality certificate.
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Global Bullion Market – TOCOM
Symbol Gold
Expiry 3rd business day prior to delivery day (Delivery day = last day of even month)
Trading Unit 1 kg
Delivery Unit 1 kg
Quotation/ Base Value JPY/gram
Tick Size JPY 1 per gram
Initial Margin JPY 165,000 (approx 7%)
Delivery Centers A designated depository licensed by the exchange.
Quality Specification 99.99% purity; specified warehouses
17
Indian Commodity Exchanges
Multi Commodity Exchange
18
Gold – MCX Contract Specification
Symbol GOLD
Expiry On every 5th of the alternate month (Oct, Dec, Feb, April, June, Aug)
Trading Unit 1 Kg
Quotation/ Base Value 10 gm
Tick Size Re. 1 per 10 gm
Price Quote Ex-Ahmedabad
Initial Margin 7%
Delivery unit 1 Kg
Delivery Centers Mumbai and Ahmedabad at designated clearing house facilities of Group4 Securitas
Quality Specification 995 purity ; It should be serially numbered Gold bars supplied byLBMA approved suppliers or other suppliers as may be approvedby MCX to be submitted along with supplier’s quality certificate.
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Gold Near Month Price-Volume Data on MCX
5,500
6,500
7,500
8,500
9,500
10,500
11,500
Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-060
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
VOLUME MCX
Volume in kgRs. / 10 gm
20
Correlation studies!!
5500
6500
7500
8500
9500
10500
No v-0 3 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-0 4 No v-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-0 5 Jul-0 5 Sep -05 Nov-05 Jan-0 6 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
MCX COMEX
Rs/10 gm $/ Troy ounce
Correlation: 0.99
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Features – Indian Bullion Market
Bullion Market players
International suppliers
Authorised agencies
Wholesale traders
Jewellers: Domestic and Exporters
Retail investors
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Indian Bullion Market Structure
International suppliersLarge Bullion Banks including CSFB, MKS Finance, UBS, N M Rothschild, Societe Generale, etc.
Active players on the London Bullion Market, COMEX and TOCOM
Authorized agencies
14 Banks (Bank of Nova Scotia, ICICI Bank, etc) and 4 agencies (MMTC, STC, PEC & HHEC)Import on consignment basis from Dubai, Switzerland, LondonNo price risk taken by these agenciesCommission based business
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Bullion Market Structure
Wholesale traders - 25Import through authorised agencies and bullion banks Income - Arbitrage and price riskActive players on Comex through unofficial route
Jewellers – More than 20000Domestic
Buys from wholesale tradersRisk management through unofficial channelsMargins – making charges
ExportersPurchase based on gold loan from authorised agenciesPrice fixing flexibility upto 6 monthsMargins – making charges
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Demand & Supply Overview
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The two sides of a coin….
Source: GFMS Ltd.
1. Provisional.2. Excluding any delta hedging of central bank options.3. This is the residual from combining all the other data in the table. It includes institutional investment other than ETFs & similar, stock movements and other elements as well as any
residual error.
26
Gold Demand – Supply Flow Diagram
Annual
DemandFlow Supply
Jewellery
Industrial
ETF and Investments
Scrap Supply
Official Sector Sales
Mine Production
324 t
2,471 t
451 t
650 t
2,279 t
1,108 t
Producer
Hedging
-373 t
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Is it heading anywhere?
Mine Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19992000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
USD
/troy
ou
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
tonn
e
Mine Production Price (COMEX Futures)
Source: GFMS
Top Producing Countries (% share, GFMS 2004) : South Africa (14%), United States (11%), Australia (10%),
China (9%), Russia (7.4%), Peru (7%)
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The Big Guys!
Company2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 2007 Q2
Barrick 4.958 5.46 8.643 2 1.96Newmont 6.988 6.5 5.9 1.342 1.448Anglogold Ashanti 5.829 6.166 5.635 1.330 1.349Goldfields 4.406 4.488 4.074 -- --Harmony 3.157 2.386 2.965 0.579 0.527Gold Corp 0.628 1.136 1.693 0.558 0.546
Production (Moz)
Source: Annual Reports, Bloomberg, GFMS
Barrick Gold acquired Placer Dome in FY 06
Newmont adopts “no gold hedging” policy
Mine production has been steady
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Cash Cost of Mines on the rise……
Company Cash Costs (USD/troy ounce)2005 2006 2007 Q1 2007Q2
Barrick 214 227 282 280Newmont 237 304 421 433Anglogold Ashanti 281 308 332 333Goldfields 331 358 -- --Harmony 433 380 445 655Gold Corp 110 160 181 133
Source: Annual Reports, Bloomberg, GFMS
Cash costs include:• Production costs
• Royalty costs
• Marketing costs
• Excludes capitalised costs, depreciation, amortisation
• Also excludes. mine closure costs
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Producer Hedging
Gold is leased by central banks and other holders to commercial/bullion banks and earns a return in line with gold lease rate.
With respect to producer hedging, bullion banks contract to buy gold forward from mining companies. To fund the purchase, the bullion banks sell an equivalent amount of gold and proceeds are invested at money market rates.
This brings metal to the active market and hence hedging is sometimes referred to as “accelerated supply”.
The above ground supplies being large, the gold lease rate is lower than the money market rate encouraging bullion banks to sell gold and invest in money market instruments. The market is implicitly biased towards producer hedging and speculator selling. Hence the gold market is a contango market.
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Is it Eureka or Euro?
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Correlation with Euro
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80Gold Euro
Source: Bloomberg, JMFCL
1. The correlation is found to be strong between Gold and Euro
2. Typical range: 0.7 – 0.8
33
Correlation with South African Rand
Year* Correlation
1997 -0.10
2001 -0.54
2002 -0.51
2003 -0.05
2004 0.55
2005 0.61
2006 0.35
Source: JMFCL, Bloomberg
* - correlation from the specific year till Aug 31, 2007.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Mar
-97
Mar
-98
Mar
-99
Mar
-00
Mar
-01
Mar
-02
Mar
-03
Mar
-04
Mar
-05
Mar
-06
Mar
-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-09
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Gold ZAR
Source: Bloomberg, JMFCL
1. Majority of mining happens in South Africa
2. Primary influence on cash costs of mines
3. Appreciating Rand pushes up cash costs, since gold is finally traded in USD
34
Correlation with Dollar Index
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201065.00
75.00
85.00
95.00
105.00
115.00
125.00
135.00
145.00Gold Dollar Index
Year* Correlation
Dec-1985 -0.59
2001 -0.81
2002 -0.74
2003 -0.69
2004 -0.53
2005 -0.48
2006 -0.85
Source: JMFCL, Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg, JMFCL* - correlation from the specific year till August 31,2007.
1. Base = 100.00; March 1973, after dismantling of Bretton Wood.
2. Weighted average of a collection of foreign currencies relative to the dollar, namely Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Kroner (SEK) and Swiss Franc (CHF).
3. Exhibits negative correlation
35
Correlation with Crude Oil
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 090.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
Year* Correlation
2006 0.24
2007 0.92
2008 0.58
2009 0.76
Source: JMFCL, Bloomberg
* - correlation year wise
Source: Bloomberg, JMFCL
1. Primary influence on cash costs of mines
2. Rise in energy prices pushes up cash costs, since 15% of cash costs can be attributed to diesel purchases
36
ETF – The extra terrestrial
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Stupendous growth in Assets Under Management (tonnes)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07
Tonn
es
Lyxor- LSE GBS - ASX Street Tracks-NYSE New Gold - JSE iShares COMEX (IAU)
Source: Bloomberg, www.exchangetradedgold.com, www.ishares.com
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Macro economic factors
39
Data releases and market cues!
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GDP
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Source: Bloomberg, JMFCLRecessions in USA
December 1969-November 1970
November 1973-March 1975
January 1980-July 1980
July 1981-November 1982
July 1990-March 1991
March 2001-November 2001
Source: Bloomberg, JMFCL
• Limited chance for US heading for a negative QOQ GDP growth rate
• US Fed says ”moderate” growth developing
41
Interest Rate
As real interest rates turn negative, the price of gold is
seen to rise during that period.
The price of gold is a reflector of inflation expectation of the
market.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
USD
/troy
oun
ce
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
% c
hang
e in
CPI
∆ US CPI YOY Gold Price
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
• Wall street talks about possibility of a Fed rate cut by end of 2007.
• With domestic consumption undeterred, crude oil at high levels, this would be further reduce real interest rates.
42
US Economy numbers
GDP
ISM
Employment
Producer Price Index
Retail Sales
Consumer Sentiment
Housing starts
Durable Goods order
Trade balance
43
GDP
C+I+G+X-M = GDP (Macroeconomics)Durable goods = 15% of CNon durable goods = 30% of CServices = the rest of C20% of GDP = Investment
44
GDP
Residential
Non – Residential
Change in business inventories
45
GDP
18% of GDP = fed,state and local govt spending35% of G = Federal SpendingDefenceAircrafts,weaponsSocial SecurityMedicare
46
ISM Mfg index
Industrial growth in USInstitute for Supply ManagementDirectly from executives of 400 industrial companiesA slide towards 40 indicates recession is at hand.
47
Employment situation
Unemployment rateIndicated as a level
Non farm payrollsIndicated as a change
Average work weekAverage hourly earning
48
Producer Price Index
PPI – CommoditiesCPI – commodities and servicesConsumer goods excluding food and energy = 40% of PPIPPI ex-food and energy known as core PPI.Impact of PPI
49
Retail Sales
Sales inclusive of auto sales
Indicative of future GDP growth
Durables and Non durables
Volatile and hard to estimate data
50
Consumer Sentiment
“Feel good” factorExpenditure on “big ticket” itemsUniv of Michigan Sentiment IndexMonthly telephone survey of 500 consumersConsumer confidence (conference board)
5,000 households across countryConsumer confidence adjusts for seasonal adjustments
51
Housing starts
Most Americans have biggest investment in real estate (their own home)Bureau of Census – Dept of CommerceHousing is direct bolster to stock marketsBut inflation could be a concernHence interest rate scenario…..
52
Other Statistics
Jobless claims
Employment cost index
Current Account Balance
53
Who has signed it?
Name of Central Bank Country Reserves (tonnes)European Central Bank ECB 642Banca d'Italia Italy 2452Banco de España Spain 377Banco de Portugal Portugal 383Bank of Greece Greece 112Banque Centrale du Luxembourg Luxembourg 2Banque de France France 2689Banque Nationale de Belgique Belgium 228Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland Ireland 6De Nederlandsche Bank Netherlands 641Deutsche Bundesbank Germany 3423Oesterreichische Nationalbank Austria 289Suomen Pankki Finland 49Schweizerische Nationalbank Switzerland 1290Sveriges Riksbank Sweden 156
In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the undersigned institutions make the following statement:1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves. 2. The gold sales already decided and to be decided by the undersigned institutions will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales
over a period of five years, starting on 27 September 2004, just after the end of the previous agreement. Annual sales will not exceed 500 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,500 tons.
3. Over this period, the signatories to this agreement have agreed that the total amount of their gold leasings and the total amount of their use of gold futures and options will not exceed the amounts prevailing at the date of the signature of the previous agreement.
4. This agreement will be reviewed after five years.
Source: ECB, GFMS
54
Recent Activity
Year 1 Year 2 Year 32004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Eurosystem announced by June 12, 2007 352.2 385.8 288 of which: European Central Bank to date 47.0 57.0 60.0 Austria to end Apr 2007 15.0 13.7 Belgium to end Apr 2007 30.0 0.0 France to end Apr 2007 115.0 134.8 77.0 Germany to end Apr 2007 5.4 5.3 Netherlands to end Apr 2007 55.0 67.5 14.0 Portugal to end Apr 2007 54.8 44.9 Spain to end May 2007 30.0 62.5 122 Country not yet known 15Sweden to May 31 2007 15.0 10.0 5.7Switzerland 130.0 0.0 0.0Total reported selling so far 497.2 395.8 294Remaining possible to Sept 26, 2007 206
Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; ECB Weekly Financial Statement; announcements and data from individual countries.
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The witchcraft
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Bullish vs Bearish
Bullish factors
Change in policy of central banks with regard to diversification of assets.
Prevalent dehedging in the gold mining industry on expectations of higher metal prices
Volatile price surge in the energy basket (especially, hurricane impact)
Growth in demand from emerging economies
Labour disputes at mines in South Africa
Appreciation of South African Rand
Uncertainty in Middle East
Slowdown in US consumer spending
Slowdown in US Business expenditure
Bearish factors
Changes in hedging policy of gold mines
Official sector sales/intentions
Monetary stance by central bankers (surprise element)
Liquidation of carry trade
57
Argentum
The white metal
January 2009
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Silver – The poor cousin of gold!
Year Correlation2004 0.702005 0.872006 0.802007 0.38Source: JMFCL
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-074
6
8
10
12
14
16
Gold prices (USD/troy ounce) Silver Prices
Source: Bloomberg, JMFCL
• Silver exhibits poor correlation, this year.
• Recent sharp fall to USD 11.06/troy ounce further distorts the above statistical relationship.
59
Gold – Silver Ratio
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-0735.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00Gold prices (USD/troy ounce) Silver Prices (cents/troy ounce) Gold - Silver Ratio
Barclays ETF
• The successful launch of Barclays ETF has skewed the gold – silver arbitrage indicator.
• The USD 7/troy ounce – USD 8/troy ounce metal is now being valued above USD 10/troy ounce.
60
Stupendous growth in Assets Under Management (tonnes) - ETFs
Gold:
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07
Street Tracks-NYSE
Source: www.exchangetradedgold.com
Street tracks (NYSE) : 514.21 tonnes (USD 10.87 billion)
61
Stupendous growth in Assets Under Management (tonnes) - ETFs
Silver:
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07
ishares Silver
Source: www.ishares.com
ishares Silver : 4297 tonnes (USD 1.62 billion)
62
The ETF phenomenon cushions prices!
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Implied Net Investment (tonnes) Silver (USD/troy ounce)
Source: GFMS, JMFCL
The average silver prices have shown a rise above the usual USD 5/troy ounce to USD 10 – USD 12/troy ounce.
Implied net investment has turned positive with the successful launch of Barclays ETF.
63
Demand – Supply Balance Sheet
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Supply (tonnes)Mine Production 18553 18693 19296 19956 20096Net Government Sales 1841 2818 2068 2115 2417Old Silver scrap 5816 5711 5636 5826 5847Producer Hedging -- -- 311 470 --Implied Net Disinvestment 641 -- -- -- --Total Supply 26851 27221 27312 28363 28360
Demand (tonnes)FabricationIndustrial Applications 10581 10911 11455 12730 13374Photography 6354 6000 5630 5126 4535Jewellery and Silverware 8161 8516 7707 7763 6995Coins and Medals 983 1107 1316 1263 1238Total Fabrication 26080 26531 26108 26885 26142Net Government Purchases -- -- -- -- --Producer de-hedging 771 650 -- -- 212Implied Net investment -- 40 1204 1477 2006Total Demand 26851 27221 27312 28363 28360
Source: GFMS, JMFCL
ETF demand visible
Other Demand drivers:
• Silver jewellery from India and China (10% contraction in 2006)
• Industrial usage driven by global economic growth rates. (5% growth in 2006)
64
Industrial Demand of Silver – Do we see growth?
Electrical and electronic applicationsMulti layer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs)Cell phonesHigh end military applicationsPlasma display panels (PDPs)
Brazing alloys and solders70:30 silver- palladium alloys75:25 and 80:20 gaining acceptance due to higher prices of palladiumWEEE directives in Europe would eventually ban lead soldersDemand for tin-silver-copper solders
Solar panelsFuel cellsCatalysts
65
Indian Industrial Demand of White Metal
Pharmacy and Chemicals12%
Jari12%
Solders and Brazing8%
Foil6%
Miscellaneous20%
Electrical18%
Plating24%
Source: GFMS (2005), JMFCL
Industrial demand close to 13% of world industrial demand, ranking 5th in industrial demand
Burgeoning middle class would boost this demand
McKinsey Global Institute expects average incomes in India to triple by 2025
67
Is silver overpriced as compared to the yellow metal?
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07
Gold - Silver Ratio
68
Voodoo
View: Sideways with bullish bias
Target: USD 700/troy ounce
Advice: Buy on a correction to
USD 655/troy ounce
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