Going Beyond CPMGoing Beyond CPM

J. Chris WhiteViaSim Solutions

Rockwall, TX972-722-9255

jcwhite@viasimsolutions.com

The Problem

Even with great effort and the best Even with great effort and the best intentions . . .intentions . . .

Some projects are still late andSome projects are still late andover-budget.over-budget.

But It’s Not Our Fault

Litigation

Just the Tip of the Iceberg…

Unexpectedmaterial delays

Unrealisticstarting point

Unexpectedlabor losses

Etc.

Need a tool that . . .

And providesguidance on howto recover fromthe unexpected.

Provides a much betterstarting point

The PlanIn the beginning was the plan.And the plan came with assumptions.And the assumptions were without form.And the plan was completely without substance.And the darkness was upon the faces of the WorkersAnd they spoke unto their Group Heads, saying:“It is a crock of &*%# and it stinketh.”And the Group Heads went unto their Section Heads and sayeth:“It is a pail of dung, and none may abide the odor thereof.”And the Section Heads went unto their Managers and sayeth to them:“It is a container of excrement and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it.”And the Managers went unto their Director and sayeth unto him:“It contains that which aids plant growth and it is very strong.”And the Director went unto the Vice President and sayeth unto him:“It promoteth growth and it is very powerful.”And the Vice President went unto the General Manager and sayeth unto him:“This powerful new plan will actively promote the growth and efficiency of the Department.”And the General Manager looked upon the plan and saw that is was good.And the plan became policy.

The Biggest RISK Is anUNREALISTIC Baseline

Crea

te a

real

istic p

lan

that

exp

oses

issu

es

upfro

nt, b

ut lo

oks “

bad”

Keep a plan that looks

“good” but is known to

be wrong

The Real World

• Construction projects are very complex.• Labor productivity issues are a reality.• There are always unexpected delays and

disruptions that management reacts to.• Management corrective actions constantly

change the course of the project.• Estimates are often “padded” to cover risks.• We are dependent on project planning tools.

ElementsElementsFewFew ManyMany

Inte

rrel

ation

sIn

terr

elati

ons

Few

Few

Man

yM

any

LowLow

HighHighMedMed

MedMed

Business System/Project Complexity

• Lots of trades• Lots of activities• Long duration

PartsPartsFewFew ManyMany

Rela

tions

Rela

tions

Few

Few

Man

yM

any

Picking the Right Tool for the Job

SpreadsheetSpreadsheet

See 4-part video series on www.viasimsolutions.com for full description

Network ModelsNetwork Models

SystemSystemDynamicsDynamics

CPM-Based Tools Are Misleading• Double resources to cut duration in half.• Double people’s hours to cut duration in half.• If resource is not available for the requested

time, resource sits idle.• Durations (and, hence, full project plans) can

be input with no verification of assumptions.

We conduct We conduct complexcomplex analyses analyses with variables that are with variables that are suspicioussuspicious to begin with. to begin with.

Overview of Critical Path Method

Major Flaws with CPM

• Task duration is an input.• Productivity impacts are not considered.• Management corrective actions are not

included.

Resulting Problems

• Assumptions are not challenged.• All resources are considered equal.• Resource leveling is often inconsistent.• Project plan is static.• Project plan is often difficult to defend.• Cost and schedule risks increase.• Lower probability of success.

Real World Example:Aircraft Sensor Development for

Defense Contractor

39 mo, $13.1M

77 mo, $13.1M

MS Project:Unleveled

MS Project:Leveled (Weekly)

MS Project:Leveled (Monthly)

599 mo, $13.1M

Too optimistic.

Too unpredictable.

Too pessimistic.

Dynamic Progress Method

• Addresses major flaws of CPM.– Duration is an output.– Productivity is accounted for.– Management corrective actions are incorporated.

• Uses the power found in today’s PC’s to create operational simulations of projects.

• Incorporates additional knowledge about project management.

WorkTo Do

CompletedWork

Completion Rate

ResourceProductivity

“Effective”Labor Hours

ActualLabor Hours

Numberof Resources

Completed

Work

Task 1

Completed

Work

Task N

TaskDependencies

FS, SS etc.

Earned ValueCalculations

Corrective Actions

Project Manager Assumptions:

10 5

PERT/CPM use this input:

WorkTo Do

Completed

Work

ResourceProductivity Actual

Labor HoursNumber

of Resources

DPM uses these inputs:

+Assumed

ProductivityLevel

(100%)

+Assumed

Availability(Days, Hrs/Day)

(8 hrs/day)

= ExpectedDuration

(10 days)(80 hours)

ExpectedAmount of

WorkJoe(1)

+

Example Continued…

39 mo, $13.1M

599 mo, $13.1M

77 mo, $13.1M

71 mo, $13.9M

84 mo, $15.4M

MS Project:Unleveled

MS Project:Leveled (Weekly)

MS Project:Leveled (Monthly)

Too optimistic.

More realistic.

Realistic and consistent.

Too unpredictable.

Too pessimistic.

pmBLOX:Productivity 100%

pmBLOX:Productivity 85%

Benefits of DPM

• Provides actionable information to make decisions before problems occur.

• Prevents resource allocation issues.• Shows which corrective actions are most effective

and for which circumstances.• Identifies high risk areas.• Quantifies project acceleration options and

shortest possible duration.

www.dynamicprogressmethod.com

Primary Uses of DPM

• Project validation:– Task execution– Management corrective actions

• Project acceleration:– Cost and labor consequences of acceleration– Theoretical shortest duration

Benefits of Project Validation

• Ensure that baseline plans are realistic and defendable prior to start of project.

• Ensure that “course corrections” and new plans are realistic and defendable.

• Reduce project risk.• Reduce midstream re-planning efforts.• Test consequences of underlying assumptions.• Ensure reliability of cost/schedule estimates.• Save staff time.

Using for Validation

End Customer

General Contractor

Subcontractors

Each “level” of the hierarchy can use pmBLOX to validate the plans from the “level” below.

A

A

A

For competitive bids at each “level”, pmBLOX can be used for apples-to-apples comparison, as well as a non-biased 3rd party.

B

B

B

DPM Simulations

Why Should You Care About DPM?

For Projects:• Better baseline plans• Better mid-course corrections• Better risk management

For Litigation:• Better understanding of fault.• Better defensibility of plans.• Better communication.

HigherHigherSuccessSuccess

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HigherHigherSuccessSuccess

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