godman sachs eemea one-on-one conference november 2010

30
1 IDGC OF CENTER: RESULTS OF 9 MONTHS, FORECAST FOR 2010

Upload: mrsk-centre

Post on 18-Nov-2014

340 views

Category:

Investor Relations


0 download

DESCRIPTION

9M2010 Results, Y2010 Forecast

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

1

IDGC OF CENTER:

RESULTS OF 9 MONTHS,

FORECAST FOR 2010

Page 2: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

2

The information in this presentation was received from the sources which, in opinion of IDGC of Centre (“the Company”), are reliable.

Nevertheless, we do not guarantee accuracy of the given information which may be short or incomplete. All opinions and estimations

containing in the present material reflect our opinion at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase

or subscribe for, any shares or other securities representing shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its

presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.

The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that

are not historical facts, statements regarding the Company’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other

things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the industry in which the

Company operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, the risks

and uncertainties to be set forth in the prospectus, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not

occur in the future. The Company cautions you that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its

actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may

differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if

the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company

operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be

indicative of results or developments in future periods

The Company does not bear the responsibility for consequences of use of opinions containing in the present report or applications, or

for incompleteness of the information. No person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.

By attending the presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations..

Disclaimer

Page 3: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

IDGC of Center - an attractive target for investments

Prospects of growth

Strong team of managers

Leader in the transition toRAB-based regulation

• The transition to a new system of tariff regulation - RAB;• The first IDGC which has completely transited to the RAB-based regulation (11

branches):2009 - 3 branches2010 - 8 branches

• Maintained a high level of iRAB – RUR 116 billion

Achievements of the management team:• Developed and implemented a system of KPI, matrix management;• Good financial condition, positive dynamics on all key financial and operating

indicators;• A transparent system of corporate governance;• Implementation of stock option plan in 2011

• Investment "history" of the network complex attracts attention of analysts and investors:

- since the beginning of the year capitalization of the Company increased by 82%; - sector is significantly undervalued - the growth potential according to estimations of analysts of major investment banks in relation to their foreign counterparts;

• Reducing losses and increasing reliability of the network assets of the Company in medium term due to the transition to RAB-based regulation and on-time implementation of large-scale investment program

3

Page 4: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Company‟s storyline

2004-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

4

December „04IDGC of Centre and North Caucasus is registered aimed at further interregional integration through merger with the Companies of DGC

„06 Enhancement of DGC management system. Transferring of powers of the DGC sole executive body to the Company

April „07The final structure of the Company was approved, the Company now includes 11 regional grid companies in Central Russia (decision of the Board of Directors of RAO UES of Russia)

January„09 3 branches of the Company transferred to RAB;April „09 Company‘s shares were included into quotation list ―B‖ of MICEXNovember „09 The Company was assigned Standard & Poor's credit rating "BB-"

January „10 Another 2 branches transferred to RAB: Kurskenergo, YarenergoJuly „10 Rating Agency S&P approved the Company‘s credit rating ―BB-‖, forecast―Stable‖Nov – Dec „10 FST of Russia approved the transition to RAB of the remaining6 branches (Bryanskenergo, Orelenergo, Kostromaenergo, Tambovenergo, Voronezhenergo, Smolenskenergo)

March „08 Adherence of DGCs to IDGC of CentreMay „08 Company‘s shares were launched for trading at MICEX (MRKC) and RTSJuly „08 JSC ―IDGC Holding‖ became the majority shareholder of the CompanyOctober „08 Shares of IDGC of Centre were included in calculation base of MICEX PWR

Page 5: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

5

Key indicators

The Company is a natural monopoly, tariffs are regulated by state

Capitalization (as of 23.11.2010)

RUR 56.15 blnUSD 1.81 bln

Amount of shareholders(as of 12.05.2010)

15,157

Revenue(RAS 2009) RUR 49.1 bln(RAS 9months 2010) RUR 43.4 bln

Net profit(RAS 2009) RUR 1.3 bln(RAS 9months 2010) RUR 3.8 bln

Net assets(RAS as of 30.09.2010)

RUR 45.1 bln

Output(2009 )(as of 30.09.2010

53.1 bln kWh40.68 bln kWh

Length of power lines (overhead 0.4 — 110 kV power lines as of 30.09.2010)

376.9 thousand km

Capacity of substations(as of 30.09.2010)

35 — 110 kV 31.2 GVA

6 — 10/0.4 kV 15.0 GVA

Number of personnel(as of 30.09.2010)

27,920

Page 6: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

JSC “IDGC Holding”*

JSC “IDGC of Center”

Minority shareholders

50.23% 49.77%*

JSC “YarESK”

JSC “Energetik”

51%

Belgorodenergo

Брянскэнерго

Воронежэнерго

Kostromaenergo

Kurskenergo

Lipetskenergo

Orelenergo

Smolenskenergo

Tambovenergo

Tverenergo

Yarenergo

Branches Subsidiaries

Group of Companies

- November 11, 2009Subsidiary company JSC "Energetik" acquired a controlling stake in JSC ―YarESK‖- the target company for the consolidation of power grid assets in the Yaroslavl region

100%

* - taking into account the State‘s share 0.46%

Structure of Group of Companies IDGC of Center . Key shareholders

JSC “Yargorelektroset”

51%+49%

- August 3, 2010

JSC “IDGC of Center” signed a contract for the acquisition of a controlling stake in JSC “Yargorelektroset” - one of the largest TSO in CFD. As a result of the transaction under the control of JSC “IDGC of Center” will be more than 90% of the assets of the power grid complex of the Yaroslavl region (the deal is on the completion stage)

Operational business units11 branches

State

52.69%

6

Page 7: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Share capital structure

* - as of 12.05.2010

IDGC of Center has a diversified share capital structure. Free float according to the Company‟s management estimations is about 30%.

7

Page 8: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Developed structure of management bodies…

General Meeting of Shareholders

Board of Directors

Committee on Technological Connection (5)

Committee on Strategy and Development (1)

Internal Audit Commission

Auditor

Internal Control and Audit Department

Reliability Committee(2)

Committee on Personnel and Remuneration (3)

Committee on Audit(4)

Chairman of the MB–Director General

Management Board

Executive bodies:

High authority:

Strategic management body:

Committees (5):

Internal control bodies over business activity

External bodies responsible for monitoring financial and economic activities:

Control bodies over the Company’s business activity

Bodies providing recommendations for the Board of Directors over the Company’s strategic development

formed in 2009

8

…meets international corporate governance standards

Page 9: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Target subsystems of the management:

• Growth and changes• Finance• Consumers• Main business processes• Management system• Personnel

Strategic vision of the Company‟s management – industry leadership…

Challenges of the top level

Goals of the Company

Growth Finance Consumers

Industry leadership

Management PersonnelProcesses

Ensure long- term growth of

shareholder capital value

Enhance the efficiency of

business

Ensure effective sales of

services

Realize efficient and safe functioning and

innovative development of

electricity network complex

Ensure development and

efficient functioning of management

system

Enhance efficiency of

human resources

9

... a tool to achieve - the project approach, KPI system

Page 10: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Credit rating

The level confirms the Company‟s ability to extend credit

History of credit rating

Confirmed July „10

Assigned November ‗09

Scale of international rating(in foreign currency)

IDGC of

Centre

Mosenergo

MUEC

Outlook (C-Stable)(Н-Negative)

In 2009 Standard&Poor‟s assigned credit rating to the

Company «ВВ-/В/ruAA-» forecast «Stable»,

In July 2010 the rating was confirmed on the same level

10

Page 11: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

National rating of CG

History of RCG of IDGC of Center

Confirmed July‟ 10

Assigned September ‗08

“7” Developed practice of

corporate governance. Leading position

among IDGCs

Rating NRCG 7 indicates low risks of corporate

governance, compliance with the RF legislation

and the Code of Corporate Behavior

Developed practice of corporate governance

11

Page 12: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

31

.12

.09

25

.01

.10

09

.02

.10

26

.02

.10

15

.03

.10

30

.03

.10

14

.04

.10

29

.04

.10

14

.05

.10

31

.05

.10

15

.06

.10

30

.06

.10

15

.07

.10

30

.07

.10

16

.08

.10

31

.08

.10

15

.09

.10

30

.09

.10

15

.10

.10

29

.10

.10

МРСК ЦентраMicexPWRИндекс Сети

c 31.12.09

Stock market

Dynamics of changes in IDGC of Centre share price, MicexPWR

and Network Index for 10 months 2010

Start of trading:May 21, 2008

Quotation list:«B» MICEX

IDGC of Centre shares are included in MICEX PWR, RTSeu index calculation base

Ticker symbols

MICEX MRKC

RTS classic MRKC

RTS stock MRKCG

IDGC of Center

MICEX-PWR

Index “Network”

From 31.12.2009

12

Page 13: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Key indicators of stock market:2nd place on capitalization among IDGCs…

Market multiples on IDGCs and foreign companies-analogues *

Capitalization of distribution grid companies as of31.12.10 and of 29.10.10, RUR bln (MICEX)

**

1,0

5,5

12,9

0,9

5,8

22,2

2,2

11,210,2

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

EV/S 2010П EV/EBITDA 2010П P/E 2010П

МРСК Центра

Среднее по российским аналогам

Среднее по развивающимся странам

13

… potential of growth relative to foreign companies-peer group

53

34

21 23 22 26 23 22

94

78

62

33 30 29 28 26 21

9 6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

МО

ЭС

К

МР

СК

Цен

тра

МР

СК

Цен

тра

и П

ри

вол

жья

МР

СК

Си

би

ри

МР

СК

Ур

ала

Лен

Эн

ерго

МР

СК

Во

лги

МР

СК

Сев

еро-З

апад

а

МР

СК

Юга

МР

СК

Сев

ерн

ого

Кав

каза

Капитализация на 31.12.09, млрд. руб.

Капитализация на 29.10.10, млрд. руб.

IDG

C o

f C

entr

e a

nd

Volg

a

MO

ES

K

IDG

C o

f C

entr

e

Lenenerg

o

IDG

C o

f S

iberia

IDG

C o

f U

rals

IDG

C o

f N

ort

h-W

est

IDG

C o

f V

olg

a

IDG

C o

f S

outh

IDG

C o

f N

ort

h C

aucasus

IDGC of Center

Average on Russian companies

Average on developing countries

Capitalization as of 31.12.2009, bln.RUR

Capitalization as of 29.10.2010, bln.RUR

* Calculations of the Company, data of investment banks covering the activities of IDGCs

** Calculations of the Company, data of investment banks covering the activities of IDGCs (foreign analogues: Eletropaulo, Compania General de Electricidad, Aksu Enerji ve Ticaret, etc.)

Page 14: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

4,86%

0,36%

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

4,00%

5,00%

6,00%

7,00%

20

283

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

28,74%

3,06%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

НДЦ (% от УК)

ДКК (% от УК)

3 050

0500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 000

14

… significant decrease of bid-ask spread

Key indicators of stock market:2nd place on volumes of trades among IDGCs…

Average bid-ask spread of MRKC at MICEX (%) , 2009-2010

Day-average number of contracts at MICEX.pcs.Stock turnover at MICEX, Jan- Oct 2010, RUR mln

Proportion of shares in the nominal holding by depository exchanges 2009-2010gg:

Page 15: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

15

IDGC of Centre

• RAS: 9 months 2010, forecast for 2010

• Transit to RAB-based regulation

Page 16: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Revenue by activities: results, forecast (RAS)

TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTION REVENUE, RUR BLN0

510152025303540455055606570

29,3

32,6

46,9

57,1

‗07 ‗08 ‗09 ‘10(п)

ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION REVENUE, RUR BLN

‗07 ‗08 ‗09 ‘10(п)0123

2,62 2,51,65

2,30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

REVENUE, RUR BLN

32,4035,66

49,05

60,12

‗07 ‗08 ‗09 ‘10(п)

16

OTHER ACTIVITY

TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTION

ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION

OTHER TGC‟S REVENUE TRANSIT

REVENUE W/O OTHER TGC‟S

TECHNOLOGICAL CONNECTION

Page 17: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

RUR bln 30.09.2009 30.09.2010 Change

Revenue 36.05 43.38 20.3%

Cost 31.28 36.65 17.2%

Gross profit 4.77 6.73 41.1%

Gross profit margin 13.2% 15.5% 2.3 p.p.

EBITDA 6.74 8.72 29.4%

EBITDA margin 18.7% 20.1% 1.4 p.p.

Net profit 2.01 3.80 89.1%

Net profit margin 5.8% 8.8% 3.0 p.p.

08.72

6.74

+29.4%

EBITDA, RUR bln

9M2009

19M2010

9 months 2010 performance (RAS)

… significant growth of all key indicators

17

Page 18: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Structure of capital

RUR bln 31.12.2009 30.09.2010 Change

Equity 41,23 45,04 9.24%

Long-term liabilities 10,73 11,69 8.95%

Short-term liabilities 0,40 0,00 -100%

Accounts payable 8,69 11,29 42.04%

Other 61,05 68,02 11.42%

Decrease of average interest rate on credits in

2010 by 5.0%

Management of loan portfolio –absence of short-term credits and loans…

12.93%

10.99%

8.63% 8.41%

18

31.12.09 31.03.10 30.06.10 31.10.10 31.12.10F

8.00%

34%

30%

20%

8%3% 5%

Financing support, as of October 31, 2010

Sberbank

Rosbank

Alfa Bank

Gazprombank

Nordea Bank

Others

Page 19: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Year EBITDA Net Profit Net Debt Net debt/

EBITDA

2006 4.74 1.31 3.27 0.69

2007 6.83 1.98 6.14 0.90

2008 7.49 0.87 9.31 1.24

2009 7.64 1.33 10.76 1.41

2010F 11.27 4.07 14.88 1.32

9M 2009 6.74 2.01 9.34 1.39

9M 2010 8.72 3.80 10.11 1.16

RUR bln

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(П)

EBITDA Net debt/EBITDA

19

Debt position –low indicator of Net debt/EBITDA

EBITDA vs. Net Profit, RUR blnRatio Net Debt/EBITDA

NET PROFIT

Page 20: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Освоение К

В

Вво

д О

Ф

Осво

ен

ие

КВ

Вво

д О

Ф

Осво

ен

ие

КВ

Вво

д О

Ф

Осво

ен

ие

КВ

Ввод

ОФ

Осво

ен

ие

КВ

Вво

д О

Ф

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Прочее

Новое строительство и расширение действующих объектов

Техперевооружение и реконструкция

YearVolume of capital

investments,RUR bln w/o VAT

Commissioning of fixed assets. RUR bln w/o

VAT

2006 4.509 4.350

2007 7.839 6.372

2008 9.071 7.739

2009 6.529 7.687

2010F* 11.820 11.797

RUR bln

www.mrsk-1.ru 20

Investment activity

Others

New construction and expansion

of existing facilities

Modernization and reconstruction

CI

FA CI

FA CI

FA CI

FA CI

FA

Page 21: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Полная величина ИК

Остаточная величина ИК

226

76

111

39

RAB филиалы

Филиалы по которым планируется переход на RAB

21

Transition to RAB

IC full value IC residual value

RAB planned branches

RAB branches

Expected IRAB on all branches –

RUR 115.83 bln

Date of transition

Branch Total value of invested

capitalRUR mln

IRAB,RUR mln

from 01.01.2009 Belgorodenergo

50 609 19 930Lipetskenergo

25 726 10 030Tverenergo

55 276 14 366

from 01.01.2010 Kurskenergo

30 782 10 802Yarenergo

21 586 8 968

from 01.11.2010 Bryanskenergo

20 045 5 989Orelenergo

21 571 6 407

From 01.01.2011 Kostromaenergo

16 892 7 437

Tambovenergo

18 609 5 515

Voronezhenergo

38 110 12 650

Smolenskenergo

37 041 13 735

Page 22: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

Contact information

JSC “IDGC of Center”

129090 Russia, Moscow, Glukharev per., 4/2Tel./fax: +7 (495) 747 9292www.mrsk-1.ru

Director on Corporate RelationshipsTatiana A. [email protected]

Head of Department for Shareholders RelationshipTatiana N. [email protected].: +7 (495) 747 9292, ext. 3181

22

Page 23: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

23

Appendix

Page 24: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

24

Investment activity*

Year

Volume of capital investments,

RUR bln w/o VAT

Commissioning of fixed assets. RUR bln w/o

VAT

2009 6,529 7,687

2010F 11 820 11 797

2011F 18 929 17 895

2012F 22 717 21 457

2013F 33 622 32 653

2014F 33 231 33 983

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ос

во

ен

ие

КВ

Вв

од

ОФ

Ос

во

ен

ие

КВ

Вв

од

ОФ

Ос

во

ен

ие

КВ

Вв

од

ОФ

Ос

во

ен

ие

КВ

Вв

од

ОФ

Ос

во

ен

ие

КВ

Вв

од

ОФ

Ос

во

ен

ие

КВ

Вв

од

ОФC

I

FA CI

FA CI

FA CI

FA CI

FA CI

FA

RUR bln

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

*Presented data on investment program have been formed without taking into account changes made by FTS Order from 01.09.2010 N 218-E / 5 «On Amendments to the Order of the Federal Tariff Service of 15.08.2008 N 152-e/15 «On approval of the rate of return on invested capital».

(Registered by Ministry of Justice on 21.09.2010 N 18491).

Perhaps there will be changes in the middle of October 2010, when approving theadjusted investment program by the Board of Directors of IDGC of Centre.

Page 25: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

25

Productive supply, forecast on 2010-2014

50,00

51,00

52,00

53,00

54,00

55,00

56,00

57,00

58,00

59,00

‗09

Bln KWh

‘10F ‘11F ‘12F ‘13F ‘14F

53,13

56,21

55,14

57,89

57,05

58,48

+3.8%

+1.9%

+1.5%

+1.5%

+1.0%

Page 26: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

www.mrsk-1.ru 26

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

MVBln KWh

Полезный отпуск э/э, млрд. кВтч Объемы ТП, МВт

YearProductive supply, bln

kWh

Growth rate,

%

Volume of technological

connection, MV

Growth rate,

%

2006 54.0 - 280.47 -

2007 56.4 4.4% 481.28 71.6%

2008 56.6 0.4% 479.84 -0.3%

2009 53.1 -6.2% 445.62 -7.1%

2010(F) 55.2 0.8% 531.55 19.3%

Appendix 1Sales of services (RAS)

Productive supply, bln KWh Volume of

TC, MW

Page 27: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

1,00

3,00

5,00

7,00

9,00

11,00

13,00

15,00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F

www.mrsk-1.ru 27

Period kWh (th.) %Change,

p.p.

2006 6.238 10.35

2007 5.932 9.52 (0.83)

2008 5.875 9.40 (0.12)

2009 5.977 10.11 0.71

2010F 6.154 10.03 (0.08)

10.4

Dynamics of Electricity Losses, 2006-10F (%)

Appendix 2Dynamics of Electricity Losses 2006-2010

9.59.4

10.1 10.03

Page 28: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

www.mrsk-1.ru 28

Power transmission share market in 2010 (in terms of money)

Technological connection share market in 20 (in terms of money)

Appendix 3Market share in 1H 2010

OWN REVENUE

REVENUE OF TGCs

OWN REVENUE

REVENUE OF TGCs

Bryanskenergo

Voronezhenergo

Tambovenergo

Yarenergo

Lipetskenergo

Tverenergo

Orelenergo

Kurskenergo

Smolenskenergo

Belgorodenergo

Kostromaenergo

Company‟s share in the power transmission market in regions, % (2009)

Page 29: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

www.mrsk-1.ru 29

Tariffs

Average distributional tariffs, kop/kWh

Branch 2006 2007 2008* 2009* 2010*

Belgorodenergo 48,4 52,4 65,2 80,8 100,1

Bryanskenergo 40,5 74,9* 86,9 106,0 130,5

Voronezhenergo 38,2 45,5 74,0 91,1 102,4

Kostromaenergo 64,3 76,2 91,1 106,4 130,8

Kurskenergo 46,4 47,6 59,1 69,1 98,7

Lipetskenergo 33,5 42,3 64,8 82,2 111,1

Orelenergo 48,3 66,5 105,6 117,0 140,5

Smolenskenergo 65,4 73,0 90,3 110,4 123,8

Tambovenergo 47,0 49,3 87,3 100,3 108,3

Tverenergo 52,7 58,4 103,4 138,3 154,2

Yarenergo 48,4 43,3 59,8 74,0 86,2

* Tariffs are inclusive of the territorial network organizations

Page 30: Godman Sachs EEMEA one-on-one Conference November 2010

www.mrsk-1.ru 30

Tariffs

Average distributional tariffs w/o TNO, kop/kWh

Branch 2008 2009 2010

Belgorodenergo 64,5 79,8 98,9

Bryanskenergo 55,4 70,3 83,8

Voronezhenergo 52,8 62,6 71,5

Kostromaenergo 90,2 104,5 126,7

Kurskenergo 52,0 60,4 65,8

Lipetskenergo 52,9 68,9 91,8

Orelenergo 79,6 91,1 108,2

Smolenskenergo 85,7 105,3 118,0

Tambovenergo 51,8 62,6 70,9

Tverenergo 72,4 102,2 119.8

Yarenergo 42,1 51,2 60,6