go131: international relations professor walter hatch colby college nuclear deterrence
TRANSCRIPT
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GO131:International Relations
Professor Walter HatchColby College
Nuclear Deterrence
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Why the Dog Didn’t Bite(and the Cold War Stayed Cold)
Balance of power?
Or “balance of terror?”
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A Puzzle for Realists
Classical realism: Superpower BehaviorIdeological moderation
Fear of escalation
Neo-realism: Structure of the SystemThe stability of bipolarity
Communication to overcome PD
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Balance of Terror
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Deterrence
Defined: The threat to punish another actor if it takes a particular negative action (such as attacking one’s own state or one’s allies)
One conditon: The threat must be credible.
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Mutually Assured Destruction(MAD)
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Nuclear Technology
Atomic bomb (1945): Fission
Hydrogen bomb (1952): Fusion
Technological “advances”
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Delivery Systems (I)
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Delivery Systems (II)
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Delivery Systems (III)
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Scared Straight
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U.S.– Soviet Arms Control
Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963)
ABM Treaty (1972)
SALT (1972 and 1979)
START (1991)
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Star Wars
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Here we go again?
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Global Arms Control
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Proliferation
NPT (1968)By then, France, UK and China also had joined nuclear club.
In spite of NPT, the technology spreadIndia and Pakistan never signed. Declared nuclear powers in 1970s.
Israel never signed. It is undeclared nuclear power, but probably has a hundred warheads
Iraq’s nuclear program was dismantled in 1990s.
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North Korea
Near war in ’94 over plutonium production
Left NPT in ‘03 over uranium enrichment
6-8 nukes
Diplomatic breakthrough?
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Iran
Signed NPT
But enriching uranium
For civilian or military purposes?
Israel should be “wiped off the map…”
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India’s Special Status
100 nukes?
US cooperation
Why not Pakistan?
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Proliferation for Profit
Pakistan –> Iran, Libya, North Korea
China –> Iran
Dr. A. Q. Khan
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Testing
CTBT (1996)Won’t take effect until signed and ratified by 44 statesIndia and Pakistan refused to sign; conducted their own tests in late 1990s
• An attempt to divide world into “nuclear haves” and “nuclear have-nots?”
U.S. Senate voted in 1999 against ratificationBush administration opposes it
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Nuclear Hypocrisy
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US Response
We’re taking action …
Real threat:Rogue states
Non-state actors
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Chemical and Biological Weapons