gms power grid who gains, who loses? chuenchom sangarasri greacen 17 july 2005 piyawan resort
TRANSCRIPT
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GMS Power Grid Who gains, who loses?
Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen17 July 2005
Piyawan Resort
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Leaders from 6 countries met GMS Summit in Kunming, China
4-5 July 2005
MOUImplementation of GMS Power Trade Operation
Agreement- Stage 1
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What is ?
• Purpose “To set an implementation framework
for bilateral power trade between countries with transmission links in accordance with the draft GMS Power Trade Operation Agreement – stage I”
• For Thailand, EGAT is the designated entity responsible for plan implementation
MOUImplementation of GMS
Power Trade Ageement – stage I
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Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Norconsult June 2002
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Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in the GMS
• Benefits :– Exchange energy e.g.
during different peak periods
– Reduce shared reserve margin
– Maximize efficient utilization of resources in the GMS
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Reality of GMS Power Grid:expensive, risky investment
• Costs excluded in analysis:– Control center– Water usage– Regulator & reliability
coordination– Transitional costs
• Increased vulnerability: events in Laos/Cambodia determine reliability of Thai Grid
US$billion
Project cost 43.50 - 44.96
Cost savings*
0.45 - 0.91
% benefit of total cost
1.0 – 2.1%
*Cost savings of extended power cooperation scenarios over base case
Source: Comments on Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries by Bretton W. Garrett, P.Eng., Ph.D.
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PPA andRegionaldispatch
Regional Institutions
PerformanceStandards
RegionalPlanning
Transmission Tariffs
Regional Power Trade Operating Agreement in the Greater Mekong Sub – Region: GMS RPTOA
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Goals for Stage # 1
PTOA: Bilateral Power Transactions;
Tariffs for cross-border transmission facilities;
Regional and Operational transmission planning;
Putting in place regional institutions: Regional Regulatory Board, Planning Working Groups, Management Committee
Recommended:
Agree and apply rules for Long-term PPA
Arrangements for facilitating building of cross-border transmission facilities.
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Stage 2-4
Stage 2: power trade among more than 2 countries Stage 3: All GMS countries are connected by HV
transmission links and independent power producers can sell electricity
Stage 4: Complete competitive power trade in Regional Power Pool
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Analyses of Dr. Brettron Garrett
Transmission expert from BC, Canada
http://www.palangthai.org/en/policy
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1. “The most serious concern is
the wisdom of committing to an expensive, long-term electricity
trade arrangement
without certainty of the economic
benefits”
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ADB’s assumptions on benefits of the GMS grid
• Peak sharing can reduce costs, need for reserve margin
• Lots of cheap hydropower will be built in Laos, Burma and Yunnan, and can displace electricity generation from gas and coal.
• Competition among different dam projects in the region will drive cost down so consumers will enjoy low, competitive price
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Assumption 1. peak sharing
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
hour
MW
Thailand
Vietnam
Opportunity for peak reduction
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Assumption 2• Hydropower is cheap• Hydropower is
plentiful • Cheap power from
dams will displace power generation from gas and coal plants
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Assumption 3. GMS grid+competitive trade will drive the price down
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Fact 1. peak sharing can reduce peak by only 25
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
hour
MW
Thailand
Vietnam
Reduce Peak by only 25. %
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Fact 2Cheap hydropower ” is only an assumption, not findings from
studies
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• Stage 4 is difficult/impossible to reach and there is no set timeline for it to happen
• With no competition, there is opportunity for price gouging as seen in California
Fact 3.No competition
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Conclusion: Extremely risky investment
• Total investment 200,000 million baht (incld. Building dams)
• May result in benefits worth 90,000 million baht but highly uncertain
• What is certain is consumers in the GMS have to pay 48,000 billion Baht
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2 . Regulatory body
• Balance interests of investors against consumers
• RPTOA suggests against having a highly independent regulatory
• No public participation• No consideration of
other greener, cheaper alternatives
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3. Extremely difficult and expensive to harmonize grid standards across the region
• Split-second decisions by operators in one country can affect the whole region
• The Canadian economy lost 16,000 million Baht in August 2003 when a negligent USA utility caused a massive blackout.
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4. Vulnerability of power interconnection to political
situation
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Who gains, who loses?
• GMS consumers are sure to foot the bill of 48000, million baht to build the grid
• Economic benefits are highly uncertain and unlikely
• High risks: technical, environmental & social, political
• Benefits from dam construction go to multinational corporations, investors, contractors
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Who gains, who loses?
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Win-win trade?
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Without GMS Grid, Thailand’s energy security would be at
risk?
บั�นทึ�กความเข้ าใจแนวทางการดำ�าเน นงานตามข้�อตกลง
ดำ�านการปฏิ บั�ต การเพื่��อการซื้��อข้ายไฟฟ าระหว#างประเทศในกล&#มอน&ภู(ม ภูาคล&#ม
แม#น��าโข้ง ระยะท+�1
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ADB:Peak demand in
2020
Source: Norconsult, Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS Countries, June 2002
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Energy security
or business expansio
n ?
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Comparison of past demand forecasts vs. actual
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MW
Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96
Oct-96
Jun-97
Sep-97
Sep-98(RER)
Sep-98(MER)
Sep-98(LER)
Feb-01
Aug-02
Jan-04(LEG)
Jan-04(MEG)
Jan-04(TEG)
ACTUAL
Source: รายงานการปร�บัปร&งค#าพื่ยากรณ์-ความต�องการไ ฟฟ า ฉบั�บัมกราคม พื่.ศ. 2547 คณ์ะอน&กรรมการพื่ยากรณ์-ความต�องการไ ฟฟ า
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Thailand’s current demand forecast (Jan04)
Annual increases (MW)Annual Peak Demand Increase (MW)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
MW
Jan04 Forecast
Actual
Forecast Avg
Past 15 yr Avg
Past 20 yr Avg
Past 10yr Avg
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ท+�มา : กรมพื่�ฒนาพื่ล�งงานทดำแทนและอน&ร�กษ์-พื่ล�งงาน
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Biogas from pig farms
Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
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Village-scale microhydro
• Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai
• 40 kW• Community cooperative• Expected gross
revenues: 30,000 baht/month
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2000 MW = ?
• เข้��อนภู(ม พื่ล 780MW
• เข้��อนปากม(ล 136MW
• แม#เมาะ 2400MW
• จะนะ 700MW
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