gmo: nyse mkt & tsx - general moly · 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018p 2021p 2024p months of...
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Molybdenum Market Factors –A new paradigm emerging
August 2017
GMO: NYSE MKT & TSX
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Cautionary StatementThis presentation contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, andSection 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are intended to be covered by the safe harbor created by suchsections. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, (i) estimates of future molybdenum and oil and gas prices, supply,demand and/or production; (ii) estimates of global molybdenum cash operating costs; (iv) estimates regarding timing of expansion of oil andgas, clean energy and other end-use demand, and China and other global economic and infrastructure growth; (v) statements regarding coststructure, project economics, or competitive position, and (vi) statements related to potential market signals. Where the Company expressesor implies an expectation or belief as to future events or results, such expectation or belief is expressed in good faith and believed to have areasonable basis. However, forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual resultsto differ materially from future results expressed, projected or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertaintiesinclude, but are not limited to, metals price and production volatility, global economic conditions, currency fluctuations, increased productioncosts and variances in ore grade or recovery rates from those assumed in mining plans, exploration risks and results, political, operational andproject development risks, including the Company’s ability to reobtain water permits and Record of Decision, and retain other required stateand federal permits to commence construction and its ability to obtain suitable financing for development of the Mt. Hope project, adversegovernmental regulation and judicial outcomes. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors, see the Company’s AnnualReport on Form 10K, which is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as the Company’s other SEC filings. The Companydoes not undertake any obligation to release publicly revisions to any “forward-looking statement,” to reflect events or circumstances afterthe date of this presentation, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.
2
For more information, contact General MolyHeadquarters
Bruce Hansen, CEO
Lakewood, Colorado
(303) 928-8599
New Moly Bits blog
www.generalmoly.com/molybits.php
www.generalmoly.com
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Molybdenum Market Factors Outline
Extensive use of
steel by oil
industry
Stable oil prices
positive for moly
Oil and gas
account for 15%
of moly demand
and a further 15%
of demand is for
chemical and
petrochem
1. Demand:
Moly & Oil
2. Demand:
Clean Energy & Technology
3. Supply:
Primary vs. By-Product
4. Structural Change:
China & More
5. Market Signals:
Recovery Begins
Renewable energy
growth positive for
moly
Wind and solar
use moly steel
Fast growth in
moly catalysts,
metal and alloy
uses
Nearing end of by
product expansion;
peak by-product
production in
2019E
Tightening supply
in 2016 and
beyond
China is a swing
producer and no
longer a significant
exporter
Historical
structural changes
in the moly market
Tighter supply and
demand
Moving towards
greater diversified
end users
China: Demand for
higher quality
steel.
China: Tougher
regulations lead to
long term supply
side reform
Development of a
secular upward
moly market trend
Moly is a late cycle
metal compared
with base metals
Signals for a
recovery include a
stable oil sector,
global industrial
expansion,
continued
strengthening of the
steel market and
higher moly price
ranges
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Moly and Oil Loosely Correlated –1970-End of April 2017
Note: Crude oil prices refer to West Texas Intermediate 1986 to Present, US First Purchase price pre-1986. Molybdenum Prices refer to USGS ('52 - ‘78) Metals Week(‘79-'92). AMM ('92-'05) & Metals Week Mean Monthly Oxide Price ('06-'17) Source: CPM Group
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Real Crude Oil and Molybdenum PricesAnnual, Through 2017, Base Price is 2017
US$/barrel oil US$/lb moly
Crude Oil
Molybdenum
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Operating Rigs
Demand: Energy-Related Activity and Oil Stabilization Positive for Moly, with Growing Intensity of Use
U.S. Monthly Steel Usage ($/st) Per Rig up 39%
Worldwide Oil Rig Count up 43% YOY June 2017
Moly price loosely correlated to oil price
WTI price increased 45% YOY at year-end 2016
Moly price jumped 29% YOY at year-end 2016
Stable oil prices $50-$70/barrel allow replacement of reserves & petroleum to be competitive vs clean energy
Rising oil price generally positive for moly demand and price until it impacts global industrial production
Stable oil price drives increased oil-related investment
North American rigs more than doubled YOY May 2017
International drilling (deeper water, less efficient) bottomed in 2016. Has risen since, but is only at ~half level of recent historical average (2011-2014).
Global oil capex likely bottomed in 2016, 7-year low
Greater use of moly-reinforced steel, driving significant increased moly intensity of use
US oil rigs consuming one-third more steel than in 2010
Potential growth in fracking in China and Russia
Deeper, longer lateral drilling requiring more moly-reinforced steel tubular goods
Growth in value-added petroleum products (LNG) and pipeline and transportation needs
More moly-catalysts for cleaner-burning fuel to meet China 6 emission standard in 2020
Top chart source: CPM/Baker HughesBottom chart source: Cowen & Company/Pipe Logix, OCTG Situation Report, Baker HughesSource: Baker Hughes, Barclays, McKinsey & media reports
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Demand - Major Structural Trend Emerging:Significant Expansion of LNG Transportation & Storage
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration AEO 2017
United States Natural Gas Trade
Natural gas demand is being fueled by growth in electricity consumption.
This will require expanded transport networks to bring the fuel from suppliers to end users. Most natural gas comes from the Middle East and Eurasia.
Building of pipelines, onshore and offshore rigs, as well as in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure and storage vessels are positive for moly demand.
Investment in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Export Infrastructure Grows as the U.S.
Commences Exports of LNG
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GMONYSE MKT
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Demand:LNG Supply Growth led by U.S. & Australia
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2017
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Demand:Global LNG Trade Increase in 2035
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2017
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Demand:Diverse End Uses of Moly
9Source: SMR Research
5%
3%
4%
6%
7%
8%
10%
13%
15%
15%
15%
Other Applications
Electronics & Medical
Aerospace & Defense
Building & Construction
Power Generation
Other Transportation
Process Industry
Mechanical Engineering
Automotive
Chemical / Petrochemical
Oil & Gas Oil & Gas - Refinery catalysts, LNG development, shale gas installations, off-shore /deep ocean oil production
Chemical / Petrochemical - Corrosion inhibitors, chemical catalysts, fertilizers, waste water treatment
Automotive - Engines, pistons, crankshafts, axle shafts, steering components
Mechanical Engineering - Heavy machinery, mining equipment, cutting tools
Process Industry - Food processing equipment and storage, metal / steel processing, desalination
Other Transportation - Locomotive shafts, train wheels, brake pads, shipbuilding (bulkheads and hulls)y
Power Generation - Coal, oil, gas and nuclear power plants, wind turbines, hydro and solar energy
Building & Construction - Major infrastructure: bridges & tunnels, anchors, rebars, heating / ventilation systems
Aerospace & Defense - Turbine parts, jet engines, landing gear, piping systems, armored vehicles
Electronics & Medical - Semiconductors, pharmaceutical and biotechnology processing equipment, x-ray tubes
Other Applications - Pigments, coatings, lubricants
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Demand: Clean Energy/New Technology
Clean renewable energy now accounts for 30% of world electric power capacity; 23% of world power generation
Past decade saw annual growth rates of 50% in solar power and 23% in wind power
Moly use in wind turbines (especially offshore), geo-thermal plants, nuclear plants, carbon capture technology and desalination plants
Fast growth in moly catalysts, metal and alloys (15% of demand)
Moly metal and alloys in photovoltaic and other uses to increase 3.5% CAGR to 46M lbs to 2025
Moly catalysts to rise 4% CAGR to 55M lbs to 2025
New industrial and clean/alternative energy patents with moly at highest in past 15 years
Propelled by moly’s high temperature resistance, desulfurization characteristic as a fuel catalyst and a lack of substitutes.
Increasing global specialty steel production
Asia’s steel use is progressing towards parity with developed economies
China averages 8.64 kg of moly per 100 tonnes of crude steel today versus 6 kg moly in 2005; compared to the U.S. 40 kg moly used per unit currently.
Global infrastructure expansion led by China. Proposed $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure upgrades.
Strengthening world steel production
+5.72% YOY in Q1 2017
11 consecutive months of YOY increases through May 2017, signaling rising steel demand
Sources: CPM, media reports, World Energy Council, World Steel Association and Marketfriendly.com
Continued new innovations underestimated in future moly demand
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Demand:Clean Energy & New Technology
0.10%
0.70%
-1.00%
-0.80%
0.60%
0.30%
3.50%
0.20%
0.30%
-2.00% -0.50% 1.00% 2.50% 4.00%
Liquid Fuels & Other Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydropower
Biomass
Other Renewable Energy
Other
Total
EIA U.S. Energy Consumption Outlook (2017)
Annual Consumption, CAGR 2016 -2050
Source: CPM, SMR
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Demand Influenced By:Trends in Infrastructure Spending
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
World Industrial Production Mo Demand
YoY Change
World Industrial Production and Molybdenum Demand
Year-on-Year Change, 2000 - 2016
R-squared = 53%
Source: CPM Group, CPB
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Supply:Moly Market Balance Tightens Moving Forward
Source: CPM Group
Market effectively in equilibrium after protracted mine supply curtailments
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Supply – Moly Inventories:
Above-ground Stockpiles to Decline
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018p 2021p 2024p
Months of Global Demand Covered by Estimated Cumulative Market Balance
Compounded annual stocks, data for 2000 is the CPM's base case cumulative market balance from 1991 thru 2000
Months of Global Demand Months of Global Demand
Actual Projections
Source: CPM Group
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Supply: Primary Mines Key to Fulfill Future Supply
Source: CPM Group
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Supply:Byproduct Capacity Expansion Nears End
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020p 2025p
% byproduct production
Contribution from Byproduct Producers to Total Moly Supplies, 2017 Projection
Byproduct supply starts to ramp up in 2013
Source: CPM Group
Byproduct output contribution expected to peak at 65.5% in 2019
Lower Moly Grades for Byproduct Producers: Late-stage byproduct mines under development have reserve grades ~ 0.002%-0.035% Mo, with the majority grading ~0.017% Mo, significantly lower than historical mill head grade ~0.0299% Mo during 2000-2014.
Slower Growth in Moly Output from Cu Mines:Growth in molybdenum byproduct output from copper mines expected to slow to a CAGR of 3.1% during 2020-2025, from a CAGR of 4.6% during 2016-2019.
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Supply: China Imports Moly When Prices Are Right
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Other Mo products Mo waste & scrap Mo wire
Mo bar & section Unwrought Mo Mo powder
FeMo Other molybdate AMT
Mo oxide/hydroxide Raw Mo concentrate Roasted Mo concentrate
Metric Tonnes
Net Imports
Net Exports
Chinese Molybdenum Trade
Monthly, Jan. 2007 - December 2016
Source: Antaike
Raw Mo Concentrate Imports to China More than Doubled YoY in 2016
China has remained a net importer of unroasted moly concentrates since 2012
In 2016, unroasted moly concentrates imported into China doubled from 2015 to 16.1 million pounds
Inventory withdrawals have tightened domestic surplus in 2016. This combined with favorable arbitrage (Jan –Apr and Nov – Dec.) encouraged greater imports.
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Supply: Molybdenum Costs Curve –As much as ~42% of global producers running cash negative i
18
World Molybdenum Cash Operating Costs, 2016 ii
US cents/lb pro-rata; no credits
i. At 2016 average molybdenum price of $6.48lb.ii.Chart represents approximately 93% of total molybdenum production. Source: CPM Group, SNL and company documents.iii.First five years of Optional Plan.
Annual Average Molybdenum Prices in 2016 was $6.48/lbi
Mt. Hope’s Optional Plan cash operating costs $6.28/lb iii
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Historical Structural Changes in the Moly Market
19
AMAX dominates; stable pricing.
Dominant Climax Mine opens in 1918.
World War I tungsten shortage spurs substitution to moly.
Oil crisis (1973). Energy crisis (1979) leads to global stagflation (early 1980s). Real price spikes to $119/lb and falls.
AMAX loses pricing power. China supply dominates.
Inventories build.
Byproduct supply ramps up.
Price is weak in single digits, & relatively stagnant global demand
Post financial crisis period sees moly recover into the teens, weighed by expanding byproduct supply.
Economic slowdown in China and around the world.
Oil weakens, dropping below $30/barrel in early 2016.
Moly price declines with oil price contraction and continued byproduct supply growth.
Oil begins to recover in late 2016 and moly price stabilizes
Mike IannacchioneVP & GM Mt. Hope
2009-2014
1983-2003
1973-1982
Pre-1973
2015-today
Rapid demand growth from industrialization in China. Real price averages ~$27/lb. but world financial crisis in 2008
leads to severe price contraction (-74%) to $8.25/lb.2004-2008
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Structural Change:Limited Supply as Swing Producer
High quartile costs producer
Consecutive years of double-digit declines in marginal cost production since 2012.
Marginal producers account for ~11% of Chinese moly production in 2016 and continuing declines are expected through 2018.
In 2016, average cost for ~40% of Chinese moly production is estimated above $7.77 per pound
Environmental and safety concerns
Entry standards and environmental thresholds restrict development of small and medium sized mines
No new moly mining permits since 2013
20Source: CPM Group, Molybdenum News Service. Chart – CPM Group, World Steel and IMOA.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Chinese Average 2016 Production Costs for Roasted Mo Concentrate
% of Total Production
Low Cost Production
(<$7.77)
Mid Level Production
($7.77-$9.14)
High Cost Production
(+$9.14)
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Structural Change: The China Effect
The 13th five-year plan (2016 – 2020) pledges to raise urbanization to 60% by 2020 from around 56% in 2015, creating 50 million urban jobs, and renovating 20 million housing units in public housing.
Central government-led capacity cutbacks in the steel sector are primarily targeting inefficient mills making crude and sub-standard steel products.
Official policies are leaning toward green and efficient capacity that produces value-added specialty steels.
Quality improvement in Chinese steelmaking is expected to accelerate over the longer term.
The ratio of specialty to crude steel in China is expected to rise to 25% in 2020 from 17% in 2015.
The ratio of moly-bearing steel to alloy steel in China is forecast to rise to 12% in 2020 from 10% in 2015.
Source: CPM
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Structural Change:Rising Chinese Demand for Higher Quality Steel
China consumes a third of global moly and produces 50% of world’s crude steel and stainless steel
CPM projects China’s molybdenum demand at 4.7% CAGR for 2016-2025
China’s average intensity of use rose 5% from 2007 to 8.64 kg of moly per 100 tonnes of steel in 2016, but well below the global average
If China’s intensity of use reached the global average, it would need an additional 100.64 M lbs moly/year, basis its 2016 level.
China’s State Reserves Bureau purchased for its national stockpile of moly oxide:
5.8M-6.3M lbs in 2014
11.7M-12.6M lbs in 2015
8.5M-9.2M lbs in 1Q 2016
22i. Source: CPM Group, Molybdenum News Service. Chart – CPM Group, World Steel and IMOA.
Moly Use/ 100 tonnes of Steel - 2016
Chinese Moly Demand by End Use
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
USA Europe Japan China CIS
World Intensity of Use =
14.3 kg Mo/ 100 Mt of Steel
Kg
Mo p
er 1
00
Mt
of
Cru
de
Ste
el
Source: CPM Group, World Steel, IMOA, Antaike
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Structural Change:Continued Moly Demand in China
23The Jiaozhou Bay Bridge is the world's longest cross-sea bridge, stretching nearly 26 miles, which would span the English Channel.
CPM projects China’s molybdenum demand at 4.7% CAGR for 2016-2025
China leads the world in mega infrastructure construction.
By 2030, China plans to combine a nine-city region into one giant megacity, twice the size of South Korea, in the Pearl River Delta.
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Structural Change: India and Other Major Developing Economies
Beyond China, the major growing economies of India, Russia, Indonesia and Brazil will propel global expansion.
India is projected to overtake China in economic growth from 2021 onward.
India is expected to grow at above 6% CAGR between 2015-2050 in transportation, housing and energy sectors.i
i. Source: Roskill/HSBC Consumer in 2050 report.ii. Charts’ source: PwC World in 2050 report, February 2017
Projected GDP Rankings at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Emerging markets will dominate the world’s top 10 economies in 2050 (GDP at PPP)
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Market Signals:
Asia Overtakes the USA
PPP= Purchasing Power ParitySource: PwC World in 2050 report, February 2017
USA and Europe will steadily lose ground relative to the Asian giants
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
Market Signals:Emerging Secular Upward Moly Market Trend
Market signals include Stable oil prices
Renewed global industrial expansion; highly correlated to moly
Continued economic growth in China, India, Russia, Indonesia and Brazil
Continued growth in steel and higher quality steel production
Molybdenum prices settling into higher ranges
Growth in moly metal, alloy and chemical uses start to exceed projections
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Full alloy Stainless HSLA Tool Carbon Cast iron Mo
Metal/Alloys
Superalloys Catalysts Other
Chemicals
2016 2025p
Note: Other Chemicals includes lubricants, pigments, and other chemical demand; Source: CPM Group
Molybdenum Demand Projections, by End-Use
Million Pounds
3.2% 3.5%
3.8% 3.8%
1.3% 1.9% 3.5%
3.8%
4.0% 5.2%
Percentage = CAGR 2016-2025p
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$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25
Molybdenum Price Projections
Historical Prices 2006-To Date i CPM Price Projections ii
i. Source: CPM Group.ii. CPM Group’s March 2017 Report and Roskill’s 2017 Molybdenum Report for projected real prices based on 2016 real dollars. Inset
bar chart: CPM Group data.
$11.95$12.65$13.30
$15.20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019p 2020p 2021p 2022p 2023p 2024p 2025p
$9.50$10.00
$12.15$12.75
$8.33 $9.85
$11.98
$16.45
2014-16 2012-16 2010-16 2007-16
3-Year Avg. 5-Year Avg. 7-Year Avg. 10-Year Avg.
(Base: 2017)
$9.68$10.40
$13.50 $13.18$13.27
$14.35 $15.41
$17.97
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GMONYSE MKT
& TSX
A New Paradigm Emerging
Source: SMR, CPM Group
Structural & surface components in public infrastructure
Downstream investments in chemical processing in United States
Infrastructure development for LNG transportation and storage
Reconstruction of power infrastructure in Japan as alternative to nuclear power
High grade defense equipment in the U.S. Air Force and Navy
Long Term
Near Term
Medium Term
Primary moly production needed to satisfy demand
Higher moly content in car components
Downstream investments in chemical processing in Asia and Middle East
Gas pipeline buildout in China (West-East IV, China-Russia east route, etc)
Renewed growth in gas pipeline buildout in U.S., Europe, Middle East
Aerospace/jet engines, structural components
Likely recovery of oil & gas capex
Mo-based catalyst for upgrading clean fuels in China
Structural shift in China and then India and emerging economies will be key market drivers going forward
Renaissance of nuclear power infrastructure growth
Upgrade of defense equipment globally
Higher moly grade for civil engineering projects in China
Moly catalysts, metal and alloys used for renewable/alternative energy
Major drivers of demand delivering above-GDP growth potential for moly