glrea michigan energy fair 2015 - michigan solar pv market potential
TRANSCRIPT
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Michigan Solar Market PotentialAbhilash “Abhi” Kantamneni| Michigan Technological University
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Houghton Winters
Source: Mining Journal
Source: Mining Gazette
Source: Michigan Tech Alumni
Source: Mining Journal
Source: boniashburn.com
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OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
$0.24
$0.21$0.21
$0.16$0.16
$0.15$0.15$0.15$0.14
$0.14$0.14$0.13
$0.11$0.11$0.11
$0.10$0.10
MI Average Residential Electric Rates 2013[$/kWh]
MI Average: $0.14/kWhSource: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
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Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates
by State (2013)State Average Price
[$/kWh]Hawaii $0.37
Houghton $0.21-$0.24New York $0.19
Alaska $0.19Connecticut $0.18
Vermont $0.18New Hampshire $0.17
California $0.16New England $0.16
Middle Atlantic $0.16Massachusetts $0.16
New Jersey $0.16Michigan $0.15
Source: www.eia.gov
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Michigan Tech KRC Photovoltaic Research Center
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Location: Tree Cover and Solar Window
Image Source: www.solarfeeds.com
Best Summer Angle: 30*
Best Winter Angle: 60*
Best Average Angle: 47*
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Advantages of High Module Tilt: Albedo
Source: nsidc.org
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 1061211361511661811962112262412562712863013163313463610
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Solar Irradiation and Albedo
S_Horizontal (W/m^2) Albedo (W/m^2)
Day of the Year
W/m
^2
Source: MTU KRC
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Advantages of High Module Tilt: Snow Shedding
4 188 372 556 740 924 11081292147616601844202822122396258027642948313233163500368438680
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
PV System Output Under Snowy Conditions
45* 30* 15*
Hours since 12:00 Am Nov 1 2013
Ener
gy P
rodu
ced
(Wh)
Shedding from 45*
Source: MTU KRC
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Source: MTU KRC Data
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Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day*Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh
Source: pveducation.org
*Source: MTU KRC Data
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Source: pveducation.org
California Average = 6 Peak Sun Hours/Day*Energy = 1kW*6h = 6kWh
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Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
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Source: Michigan Public Service Commission
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Excess Generation
Excess Consumption
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Source: www.nrel.gov
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Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•6000 [kWh] (source)Annual Consumption :
•6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh]Daily Consumption:
•3.8 [h]Average Daily Sun Hours
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Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
• Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Size
• System Size*Cost Per kW = 5.4*$3,500 =$18,900System Cost
• 30% of system costs = $18,900 – 30%*18,900 = $13,448
Federal Tax Rebate
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Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•Energy*Rates = 6000*0.21 = $1,260
Annual Savings
•System Costs / Annual Savings = 11 years
Payback Period
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Utility Fuel Source SummaryFuel Source USA OCREA UPPCO Region
Coal 39.10% 63.80% 54.11% 59.43%
Nuclear 19.18% 23.10% 23.08% 25.36%
Gas 27.57% 5.50% 8.90% 9.77%
Oil 0.67% 0.10% 0.50% 0.55%
Hydroelectric 7.07% 3.40% 9.55% 0.65%
Biofuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.49%
Biomass 0.92% 0.10% 0.41% 0.45%
Wind 4.11% 2.80% 2.50% 2.75%
Wood 0.48% 0.10% 0.44% 0.49%
Other 0.71% 1.10% 0.50% 0.44%
Solar 0.20% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02%
Source: OCREA Fuel Mix ReportSource: MPSC Regional Average Fuel Mix Disclosure
Source: EIA Total Power Industry Fuel Sources
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Currently all MI utilities are on track to meet RES Compliance*
Phased integration of renewables 50% cheaper than new coal generation facilities.
*Source: MPSC Report on RES Compliance
*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source
Impact of MI PA 295
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Benefits of Renewables Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth
Report on Green Jobs says renewable energy sector job creation = 3% of all private sector employment in state
International Energy Agency Report on Energy Security says renewable energy systems reduce supply disruptions and reliance on imported fuel.
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Actual Quote: “The only green that matters, is the color of my $$$$$”
(Obviously, not a philosopher)
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Simple ROI Calculation
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PopulationAggregate MW Solar
People
Per Pane
lHought
on 30,000 0.003 2,500Californ
ia 38,041,430 1892.05 5Texas 26,059,203 185.47 35
Florida 19,317,568 93.91 51New
Mexico 2,085,538 151.7 3Arizona 6,553,255 775.59 2
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Factors Influencing Solar Adoption Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al]
If consumers cannot identify the relative advantage of solar power over their current sources of power, it is unlikely that adoption will follow. [Falers et al]
Economic intentional variables, as well as variables indicating basic knowledge and actual environmental behavior in the past, are strong predictors of the probability of adoption. [Arkesteijn et al]
The installation of one additional solar photovoltaic rooftop project within the past six months in a given area increased the average number of installations within a half mile radius by 44% [Graziano et al.]
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Steps to Solar How much am I consuming?
Reading your electricity bill
Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my location?
How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments?
How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates increase?
Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over time?
Environmental Impact?
Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?
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Steps to Solar How much am I consuming?
Reading your electricity bill
Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my
location?
How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments?
How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates
increase?
Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over
time?
Environmental Impact?
Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?
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2013
2014
2015
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Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:- ~30kW
Summer 2014: 60kW added
Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
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Large majority of installed net metered customer generation is Solar. Source: MPSC Annual Net Metering Report 2014
Figure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installed CapacityFigure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installations
Growth of Solar in Michigan
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Source: National Renewable Energy Labs
*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source
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OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
$0.24
$0.21$0.21
$0.16$0.16
$0.15$0.15$0.15$0.14
$0.14$0.14$0.13
$0.11$0.11$0.11
$0.10$0.10
MI Average Residential Electric Rates 2013[$/kWh]
MI Average: $0.14/kWhSource: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rates
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PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rate Increases
OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
116%
94%107%
48%
86%
49%73%72%79%
40%42%
76%
29%39%43%61%73%
MI Average Residential Electric Rate Increase 2001-2013
MI Average: 74%
Source: MPSC Utility Rates Summary
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PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption
MI Average: 8MWh/Year
OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
4.5 5.1 5.85.46.8 7
.2 7.9
6.48.110.0
8.4
11.611.8
8.0 7.38.3
11.1
MI Average Residential Electric Consumption 2013 [MWH/year]
Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
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Utility Rank by rates Rank by rate Increase
Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank
OCREA 1 1 1 1ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2
UPPCO 3 2 4 3WEPCO 5 4 6 4
PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9
MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10XCEL 15 13 8 11
CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12WPS 16 10 12 12AEP 17 7 15 14
TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16
THUMB 13 17 17 17
PV Residential Solar Market Potential
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Utility Rank by rates
Rank by rate Increase
Rank by Consumption
Aggregate Rank
Rank by % Net-Generation
OCREA 1 1 1 1 1ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 2
UPPCO 3 2 4 3 4WEPCO 5 4 6 4 11
PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 5ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 6DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 7GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 8CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 12
MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 9XCEL 15 13 8 11 14
CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 N/AWPS 16 10 12 12 12AEP 17 7 15 14 13
TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 N/ACLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 10
THUMB 13 17 17 17 3
PV Residential Solar Market Potential
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http://solar.maps.umn.edu/app/
LIDAR Mapping of Solar Potential for the entire state of MN
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Source: NREL StudyOn solar soft costs
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What happens when net-metering programs end?
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MPSC Solar Working Group: Value Of Solar? (VOS)
1. Expand current program till 50MW aggregate2. Buy all, credit all3. Buy net, credit net
Source: MPSC Solar Working Group Report, June 2014
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Source: CAISO
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Source: EIA
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(VOS): Value of Solar
VOS proposed by Michigan Utility DTE
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(VOS): Value of Solar
VOS used in Minnesota
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(VOS): Value of Solar
VOS used in Austin, Texas
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Summary Michigan Net-Metering program largely untapped (only 94% un-
utilized)
High electric rates offer good value proposition for solar
DIY packages/software tools to reduce soft costs
Michigan solar manufacturers and distributors to reduce hardware costs
VOS methodology aims to find ‘fair’ costs of adding solar.
Champion solar through passive data-driven community networking (free calculator)
Consider promoting efficiency as an accessible alternative to solar.
Abhi is awesome
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Contact Information
Abhilash Kantamneni
221 Rekhi HallMichigan Tech1400 Townsend DriveHoughton MI
[email protected]@akantamnwww.Abhilash.mewww.SolarizeHoughton.org
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Bonus Slides!
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Cabbages and Solar?
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Cabbages and Solar?
Sell Price: $0.21 each
Buying Price: $0.03 each
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Electric Utility Markets are a “Zero-Sum Game”
Rates = $$Generation + $$Transmission + $$Distribution + $$Administration + $$Return on Equity
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Working Group Recommendati
ons
Expand Net Metering to state wide
50MW
Credit on net generation
Credit on generation
Source: MPSC Solar Working Group Report, June 2014
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Organic cabbages?
HealthierLocally grownNo new roadsNo large farms
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Storage: Generation Shifting
Credit: climatetechwiki.org
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Storage: Load Shifting
Credit: Scientific American
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Reliable, affordable and sustainable energy for all
Goals:
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Source: Solar Energy Industry Forecast: U.S. DOE
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Public Awareness
Technological Maturity
Regulatory Action
Legislative Support
Market Drivers
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How to Bring Change: Homeboy Solar Industries• Increases
Sustainability• Reduced Prison
Recidivism• Saves taxpayer
money
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Husky Pride! Solarize Houghton
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Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:- ~30kW
Summer 2014: 60kW added
Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
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Solarizing Houghton (Summer 2015)
Buying Club
Workshop
Public Seminar
s
DIY Kits
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Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
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Summer Production: 77 Sq. miles
Winter Production: 1,732 Sq. miles
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