global mining industry and its project pipelines

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Global mining industry and its project pipelines Damian Brett Mining Philippines September 2011

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Global Mining Industry and its Project PipelinesDamian BrettRaw Material GroupMining Philippines September 2011

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global mining industry and its project pipelines

Damian Brett

Mining Philippines September 2011

Page 2: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

• Raw Materials Data: Metals/Coal/Iron Ore• Strategy development:

Mining companiesEquipment & service providers

• Mineral policy, investment promotion:Governments International organisations

RMG activities

Page 3: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

• Global Demand v Mining Supply• CAPEX• Global Exploration• Project Pipelines• Conclusions

Introduction

Page 4: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global demand

Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011

Page 5: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global mining

Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011

Page 6: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Metals value at mine386  billion USD (2009)

Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011

Page 7: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global mining

Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011

Page 8: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Top CompaniesCompany name Country Share

(%)Cumulshare (%)

Main metal

1 Vale SA Brazil 4.680 4.68 Fe 2 BHP Billiton Group Australia 4.378 9.06 Div3 Rio Tinto plc UK 4.344 13.40 Div4 Anglo American plc UK 2.930 16.33 Div5 Freeport-McMoran USA 2.425 18.76 Cu/Au6 Barrick Gold Corp Canada 2.008 20.76 Au7 Codelco Chile 2.001 22.77 Cu8 Xstrata plc Switzerland 1.801 24.57 Div9 Norilsk Nickel Russia 1.679 26.25 Ni

10 Newmont Mining USA 1.526 27.77 Au

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 9: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Top CompaniesCompany name Country Share

(%)Cumul

share (%)Main metal

(%)11 Anglogold Ashanti South Africa 1.178 28.95 Au 100

12 Gold Fields Ltd South Africa 0.996 29.95 Au 96

13 Grupo Mexico Mexico 0.918 30.86 Cu 76

14 Belaruskali Belarus 0.814 31.68 K2O 10015 Mosaic Co, The USA 0.785 32.46 K2O 7716 Goldcorp Inc Canada 0.692 33.16 Au 8717 Israel Chemicals Israel 0.683 33.84 K2O 94

18 Eurasian Nat. Res. UK 0.670 34.51 Fe 43

19 Kinross Gold Canada 0.659 35.17 Au 8620 Potash Co Saskatch. Canada 0.643 35.81 K2O 87

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 10: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global CAPEX

0

2040

6080

100120

140160

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010e

2011f

2012f

BUSD

Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011

Page 11: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Project Pipeline CAPEX

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 MUSD

Conceptual

Prefeasibility

Feasibility

Construction

Operating

Operating, exp/plans

Suspended

Reopen

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 12: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

CAPEX by Region

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

SE ASIA4%

Rest of Asia7%

Africa14%

Europe11%

Latin America28%

North America19%

Oceania17%

Page 13: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

• Concentration increasing – but  for most metals not a problem

• Host countries demand fair share – more state intervention

• Companies from emerging economices gaining importance

• Diversified companies

• Chinese lack influence

Global mining

Page 14: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Chinese demand

• China leads demand globally.

• Growth rate will decrease.

• Next 5 years it is still China, China!

Rare earths drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

Page 15: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Chinese mining

02468

101214161820

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Cu kg/capita

GDP kUSD/capita

USA

Japan

South Korea

China

India

Source: Raw Materials Group, 2011

Page 16: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Chinese mining• Largest mining country• Many small, high cost mines• Pressure to modernise• Largest exploration country since 2010• Import dependency major policy concern

Page 17: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global exploration

Sources: Western world: MEG China: Molar and RMG.

02468

10121416

BU

SD Global Metals

China Metals

Page 18: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global Ni

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 19: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global Ni Reserves

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 20: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Ni Project Pipeline CAPEX

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

0 50000 100000 MUSD

ConceptualPrefeasibilityFeasibilityConstructionOperatingOperating, exp/plansSuspendedReopen

Page 21: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Ni in Reserves (kt)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Sulphide

Laterite

Feasibility Construction Operating Restart

Source: Raw Materials Group, Stockholm 2011

Page 22: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Ni Pipeline Reserves

0 20 40Years

Conceptual

Prefeasibility

Feasibility

Construction

Operating

Operating, exp/plans

Suspended

Reopen

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 23: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

• Ni 72% of Reserves in mines25 years in mines

• Cu 75% of Reserves in mines28 years in mines

• Zn 92% of Reserves in mines41 years in mines

Comparison

Page 24: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

• China largest mining country in the world

• Chinese shortfalls in Ni and Cu

• SE Asia ideally positioned and mineral endowed to fulfil this market

• Ni project pipeline has the largest contained reserves in construction phase

Conclusions

Page 25: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Raw Materials GroupPO Box 3127 

SE‐169 03 Solna, Sweden

Tel: +46‐8‐744 00 65   Fax: +46‐8‐744 0066

[email protected]

Thank you

Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

Page 26: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Ni Production

Source: Raw Materials Group, 2011

0

500

1000

1500

2000

250020

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15

kt

PAL

FeNi

Production

Demand

Page 27: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global Cu

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 28: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Global Cu Reserves

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

Page 29: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Cu Project Pipeline CAPEX

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

0 100000 200000 MUSD

Conceptual

Prefeasibility

Feasibility

Construction

Operating

Operating, exp/plans

Suspended

Reopen

Page 30: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Cu Pipeline Reserves (kt)

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

0 500000 1000000

ConceptualPrefeasibilityFeasibilityConstructionOperatingOperating, exp/plansSuspendedReopen

Page 31: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Cu Pipeline Reserves

Source: Raw Materials Data, 2011

0 20 40Years

ConceptualPrefeasibilityFeasibilityConstructionOperatingOperating, exp/plansSuspendedReopen

Page 32: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Cu Production

Source: Raw Materials Group, 2011

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

kt

Possible

Probable

Committed

Existing Production

Apparent Consumption

Page 33: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Announced / Completed Projects

Source: Raw Materials Group, 2011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e

Announced Completed

Boom Starts FinancialCrisis

Recovery

Page 34: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Chinese iron ore imports

Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011

Page 35: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Chinese foreign expansion

14

1048

124

5

0.64

370

17

0.1

0.27

102

24

0.5

0% 50% 100%

World production

Chinese production

Planned Chinese foreign expansion

Source: BGR 2007

Ferro‐chrome

Bauxite

Iron ore

Copper

Page 36: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Chinese foreign mines

Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011

Page 37: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

Chinese foreign projects

Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2011

Page 38: Global Mining Industry and its Project Pipelines

• Foreign expansion slow• No company in top 20 (yet)• Might increase in the future

Chinese FDI